Saturday, April 29, 2006

Sunday MLB

Be back later with reviews on early selections all for single unit each.

ARZ at SFG UNDER 8 -110(L)

LAA -119(L)

CLE -1 at +109(L)

ATL First 5 innings -117(W)

TOR -0.5 First 5 innings +219(L)

What shame these should of all been for the 1st 5 innings.
1-4 -3.29 units

Halos, Escobar mow them South Siders down

This match has revenge implication from last night and last years ALCS.
Don't let last nights game fool you the Angels have the Champion characteristics and Angels took out the hot streaking White Sox at home in regular season last year. Kelvin, my man, Escobar on the mound and the big Cuban is going down tonight.

LAA +109 for 1 units(L)
Halos were there at the bottom of 9th with man in scoring position.
No cigar.
0-1 -1.00 unit

Friday, April 28, 2006

Working Friday MLB

Working the numbers at MLB take a look at Diamondbacks at Giants.
First Giants home factor AT&T Park which has been very productive.
(Run Scored +Runs Allowed at Home)/(Home Games)/
(Runs Scored + Runs Allowed on Road)/(Road Games)
SFG ranks 4th.
Second the pitching. ARZ, Miguel Batista, 2-0, 5.16 ERA, 1.68 WHIP.
His last outing against the Dodgers Nomar Garciapara's 1st inning line drive hit him in the shin. He ended leaving the game 5 innings later with stiffining shin. He faced the Giants 4/17 in Arizona and was drilled early lasting only 4 innings with 11 hits 7 runs 6 earned.
There are 2 Giants (Bonds and Wynn) with high OPS against Miguel.
Relief pitchers.
Used 4/26 (*4/27 no game) Luis Vizcaino 1.64 ERA, Brandon Lyon 0.93 ERA, Jose Valverde 3.24 ERA (S)Bull pen was perfect in low scoring road win against San Diego.
Used 4/25 Brandon Medders 10.80 ERA,Greg Aquino 4.32 ERA
Used 4/24 Jose Valverde (S. W)
Used 4/23 Grimsley 5.87 ERA, Cruz 3.00 ERA, Lyon 1.04 ERA

SFG, Jason Schmidt, 0-2, 5.33 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
His last outing against the Rockies in Denver 7 innings, 5 runs all earned
hit him early and often in a slug fest Rockies win in 9th inning rally.
4/15 against the Dodgers in LA loss, 6 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs earned with notable 7 walks throwing 114 pitches.
There are 2 Diamondbacks (Shawn Green and Chad Tracy) with high OPS against Jason.
Relief pitchers.
Used 4/26 (*4/27 no game) Fassero 6.97 ERA, Kline 5.14 ERA, Worrell 7.84 ERA, Benitez 0.00 ERA, Munter 5.59 ERA.
Used 4/25 Accardo 5.40 ERA
Used 4/24 Worrell 7.45 ERA, Munter 4.15 ERA.
Used 4/23 Correia 4.15 ERA, Wilson 0.00 ERA, Fassero 7.20 ERA

Momentum goes to Diamondbacks.
Giants are lacking stability at this point and to shoulder this game on Jason is too much. Arizona have shown to win on the road. If Batista can keep the game in striking range the late inning should prove to be in Diamondback's favor.
Take the Road Dog. ARZ +133 for 1 unit(L)

I'm not going to write all the details for CWS at LAA.
In a nut shell Garcia will out pitch Weaver, but when the bull pen comes in it'll be a different game. Angels pen is the strength.

CWS First 5 innings -112 for 1 unit(W)
Made this game sound like it was going to be pitchers dual, anything but.
Should of taken the Over too. Never did trust Weaver although he has some of the best pitches in baseball, killer side arm he'll drop on you anytime, but his wheels tend to come off during games. Freddy G. is just getting up in age he's not going to give you the high heater in the mid 90's any more, but he has experience to get the batters out.

I guess all the details couldn't of helped the Diamondbacks.
Getting "Even" again.
1-1 even

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

MLB Wednesday

Greetings Cappers,
Welcome to Arlington, Texas, Ameriquest Field. Rangers are above .500 rolling 7-3 last 10. Interestingly this stadium ranks 18th in park factor for the Rangers. This game will feature Oakland flame thrower Rich Harden vs Texas 2nd year big man 6'7" 240lbs Kameron Loe, he is coming off chest cold and though he pitched well against the A's in their last meeting he has yet to record a win. Series tied here 1-1 and both games was 1 run difference.
I will back 3-0 Harden and the visiting A's for the first half. Loe is still learning at this level and he will get schooled by one of the best in American League.

OAK First 5 innings -123 for 1 unit(L)

Harden goes out of the game at bottom of 4th with 1 run lead, but leaves bases loaded for Kevin Mench on hot streak. Kiko was no match and promptly gives up the grand slam. This is looking like a loser with time running out.
Too bad I didn't take the complete game as Oakland took the lead in the latter innings.

Let's go to Anaheim where the recharged Tigers visit the Angels in bit of a slump. Big John Lacky who gave up too many walks against Oakland in his last outing will focus on taking down the Tiger batters. Maroth on the other side is sparkling. It's a day game and the air is warm in Southern California today, but this could still go down with very little runs. I'll count on the starting pitchers.

DET/LAA First 5 innings Under 4 +111 for 1 unit(Push)
Detroit error cost me the win.
Will persistence pay off?
Let's go to the North West where the White Sox are ready to take on the Mariners at Safeco. On the mound for the Champs Mark Buehrle and for the Mariners Jarrod Washburn. Mark has been hit at Safeco and Ichiro gives him trouble, but Wash has his own set of troubles with the White Sox line up.
In comparison Sox batter have the advantage over Mariners.
On the strength of the starters Buehrle is notch above Washburn and White Sox should take the early lead.

CWS -0.5 First 5 innings -102 for 2 units(L)

Washburn threw a gem. Buehrle was not good enough.
2-0-1 -3.27 units

Friday, April 21, 2006

MLB Friday

Friday already? This week went by in nothing flat. It must of been tax deadline and standard American tax paying rule, if you must pay wait till last minute.

I'm picking my spots right now and things are looking up.
Boston with Wakefield drops a rare one against the D-Rays and Kaz.
Today the Red Sox will be in Toronto with their big Texan Beckett and Jays will counter with ex-Florida team mate Burnett. Given these two pitchers I like Beckett's stuff better. Boston gets pretty good price here with Jays taking the first series at Boston and good match up history, but I wouldn't go against Red Sox with Schilling, Wakefield and Beckett on the mound. Both are fire ballers, but AJ gets hurt, he was hurt in the Spring and sidelined, so he's behind regular season form. Though American League batters have not seen much of ex-Natinal League pitchers Burnett and Beckett, Beckett pitched against Toronto in Boston home opener, Red Sox has the better line up to contact hard throwing righty. Beckett has set the tone and making progress for early season where as AJ needs few more outings. Red Sox playing their best game on the road (5-1) with top of the line up hitting well.
Under looks tempting here, but my take for this match will be the first 5 innings.

BOS PK First 5 innings -113 for 2 units(W)

Red Sox was up after the first 5 innings and that's what I was backing.
1-0 +2.00 units

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

MLB Tuesday

San Diego Padres C. Hensley vs Colorado Rockies J. Fogg:
Good spot for the Rox to stop the skid. Last time they did it with Fogg and he's looking for 3-0 start. Hensley is a fill in and high altitude will not be kind.

COL -128 for 1 unit(W)

This game went deep.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Friday, April 14, 2006

Moving on to Saturday

Mariners with Pineiro at Red Sox with Wakefield.
Working off long term indicators and current fundamentals.
Pineiro will get tagged and defense will hurt Wakefield.

SEA/BOS First 5 innings OVER 5.5 -119 for 2 units(L)
SEA/BOS First 5 innings OVER 6 +106 for 1 unit(L)
SEA/BOS OVER 10 -121 for 2 units(L)
SEA/BOS OVER 10.5 -102 for 1 unit(L)

Angels with Colon at Orioles with Bedard.
I was not a fan of Colon last year thought he would wear down, but he went on to win 21, got the Cy Young and when the pitches are down it's still nasty. So what's he doing wrong? Yanks pounded him with the ball up in the zone. He says he was gripping the ball too hard causing the fastball to get up. Scioscia thinks he was over throwing and it was the Yankees playing to avoid the sweep.
It's a bounce back spot for Bartolo.
Bedard starting out nicely and two wins are helped by schedule against D-Rays who the O's dominate. Angels will be different. O's took the first game and on most nights Sheilds would of put that inning away to send it to the 10th.
Angels line up is seeing the ball well no advantage to the Birds.

LAA +100 for 1 unit(L)
Giants with Schmidt at Dodgers with Perez.
SFG/LAD UNDER 7.5 +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-5 -6.83 units

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Making some adjustments in MLB

I'm going to take some early line for tomorrow.

Webb will take the ball for the Diamondbacks and Pettitte for the visiting Astros. So what's the adjustment? The plays will win.

HOU/ARZ First 5 innings Under 4.5 Runs at -114 for 2 units(W)

Boston with Schilling dominating in the early season hosting the Mariners and Moyer. Jamie has trouble in Fenway and Boston's last two starters have failed at home. Red Sox to pound the Mariners.

BOS -0.5 First 5 innings -132 for 1 unit(W)
BOS -1.5 at -101 for 1 unit(L)
Out hit Seattle 10 to 4, but can't cash in the runs
Cleveland with Westbrook at Detroit with Rogers.
Westbrook has been great and Rogers have been doing well Comerica Park.
On this match up I think Westbrook has the upper hand.

CLE PK First 5 innings -105 for 2 unit(L)
Damn the Gambler!

Looks like it still needs work. It's getting there.
2-2 -0.11 units

Been a Long Time since I Rock & Roll

I missed publishing Dodgers and Marlins for the first 5 innings and it has been tough posting winners lately.

Baltimore lost last night against the Devil Rays at home, but the O's have dominated the Rays and Bruce Chen puts up wins at Tropicana.
Doug Weachter is showing classic signs of brilliant spring to eroding April.
Not lasting 4 innings in his last outing, he gave up club leading 29 homers last year and the Rays are saying, he didn't give up any homer to the Blue Jays, will see what happens tonight.

BAL -0.5 First 5 innings +101 for 2 units(L)

Plays are still taking an beating. I knew this was bad when I saw Weachter mowing down the Birds.
0-1 -2.00 units

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Cold Plays MLB

Baseball in the spring is off to a shaky start. Can Clutch recover form and play his way out of the slump? The cold plays from NBA is causing hangovers.
Unit denomination is 1% of the bankroll and it has been down sized.
The drama unfolds...

Astros at Giants. Backe will stay on his normal rotation for Houston and Morris will get the ball for the Giants. Both pitchers have started well.
The hitter are seeing the ball well right now, but still like good pitching over good hitting.

HOU/SFG 1st 5 innings UNDER 4.5 -103 for 1 unit(Rained Out)
O's at Devil Rays. Cabrera vs Fossum is a match up looking for high score.
I'm thinking both pitchers improve. Runs may come, but the number is too high.

BAL/TAMP 1st 5 innings UNDER 5.5 -107 for 2 units(W)
Rangers at Angels. Escobar takes the ball after holding the Yankees at bay.
Always liked Escobar and expect him to be Halo's top gun.
Texas giving 2nd chance to Koronka. So he threw stikes and didn't walk a man against the Tigers still a loss and he is a call up going against very good line up with the Angels. I'd give up a full run if the books offered it for the first 5 innings.

LAA -0.5 1st 5 innings -123 for 2 units(L)
Got my ass kicked along side my man Kelvim.

1-1 -0.46 units

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Tuesday MLB Totals

I will be playing the early game again with Mets at Nationals. You know there is expectation for a fight to erupt with Pedro hitting some of the Nats and today's Mets pitcher Bannister hit couple of Nats too. But I do like the early meeting playing out to high score of 9 or better.

NYM/WAS OVER 8.5 -110 for 2 units(L)
Over was knocking at the door. How many scoring chances went unanswered? Damn Zimmerman, bases loaded bottom of 9th strikes out on three pitches from shaky Wagner, WTF was that.
Padres at Marlins total set at 8.5 and money is going towards Over.
Bit of a gut play here, but I think Woody pitches a gem and get no run support.

SDP/FLA UNDER 8.5 +102 for 1 unit(L)
O's at Tampa Bay in the cozy confines of the enclosed Tropicana.
I underestimated Hendrickson's progress as a pitcher.
Benson needs to focus here, don't be thinking of Anna play ball.

BAL/TAM UNDER 9 -107 for 1 unit(Canceled)
Pitcher change for Tampa negates this wager.
Seattle at Cleveland. I think this is another Under. Washburn is going to give Mariners the mileage they need and Lee will elevate the Indians, he'll put up good numbers this season.

SEA/CLE UNDER 8.5 -109 for 1 unit(L)

So there you go, full day of MLB action to follow or fade. Busy day tomorrow there will be no added plays. Good luck to all.

Sorry to say it was the faders today.
0-3 -4.29 units

Sunday, April 09, 2006

PNC Park Opening Game

This is a early game with Dodgers sending O. Perez and Z. Duke will take the Pirates home mound for the day game.
Dodgers played a double header last night at Philly splitting the games.
They rushed out to catch their flight and they will be back on the field early.
Perez was rocked in his last outing, though he is much better than what he showed, it may have lingering effects. Duke also looked shaky in his last start, but pitched his way out and he should be psyched with Pirate coming off a losing streak breaking win combined with his first home opener.
Another Pirates advantage is Jim Tracy the ex-Dodger manager calling the shot.

PIT -0.5 First 5 innings +103 for 2 units(L)

I thought about Dodgers winning record against the Pirates, but still it was a good angle. I'd probably play that situation the same way.
0-1 -2.00 units

Sunday Please Shine Down on Me

Let's take the full game.

BAL +105(L)

ARZ/MIL UNDER 8.5 -114(W)

ATL -102(L)

1 unit each with listed pitchers.


Atlanta was so close.
1-2 -1.02 units

Friday, April 07, 2006

Saturday Baseball

Lets take it in chronological order.

Revenge of the Blue Jays with Lily on the mound facing Devil Rays, Weachter.
I hope Jays knock him out early. It's all short games today.
TOR -0.5 1st 5 innings -117 for 1 unit(W)
Jays rally in bottom of 5th....clutch

Marlins send D-Train to the mound and Mets will counter with Glavin.
It's young vs old. Taking the relief out of the risk and still the Mets line up is pretty good, but I'll go with the youth.

FLA 1st 5 innings +140 for 1 unit(Rained Out)

Arizona at Milwaukee will match up Webb vs Davis. I like both pitchers.
ARZ/MIL 1st 5 innings UNDER 4.5 -111 for 2 units(L)
Twins with Baker is not going to cut it against the Indians.
J. Johnson takes the place of CC Sabathia and he may put the ball in play, but
he'll have the good hands behind to field the Italicouts. He'll eat up some innings.
CLE -0.5 1st 5 innings -109 for 2 units(W)
Yanks and the Big Unit are trying to get things started. Too bad young Santana is a Yankee slayer

LAA -0.5 1st 5 innings +177 for 1 unit(W)
Oh yeah, another bottom of the 5th takes the big puppy.

3-1 +2.95 units

Casual Friday

May the ball do the talking and silence the bats. amen.

Nationals at Astros
Listed pitchers T. Armas (Washington) vs B. Backe (Houston)
Total Under 9 -106 for 2 units (W)
Braves at Giants
Listed pitchers K. Davies (Atlanta) vs M. Cain (SF)
Total Under 9 -109 for 2 units (L)
White Sox at Royals
Listed pitchers J. Garland (Chicago) vs J. Affeldt (KC)
Total Under 9 -110 for 2 units(L)

That was little too casual. Should of posted the 2nd chance play on Giants at the 5th inning for a big +181 dog.

Never mind, Braves put up 8 runs in top of 7th!
1-2 -2.38 units

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Come get your Baseball Fix

Get dirty boys. Every swing, every pitch, every motion, watch it like a bird in prey. Catch all idiosyncrasy than crunch every single stat known to man.
When you've done all you can take a deep breath, reach into your pockets pulling out your hard earned cash and tell the man......

Oh what a blow. I did miss a big indicator and should of posted a second chance play, now offered by Pinny after the first 5 innings, which is a nice option this season.

0-1 -3.66 units

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers

This is two offensive powers closing out the first series.
Red Sox have the edge today with Big Josh Beckett taking the mound against new comer Kameron Loe. Can Loe hold his own? This will be a tough test, but I will back the score to stay Under 5.5 for the first half.

BOS/TEX 1st 5 innings UNDER 5.5 -105 for 1 unit(W)


Pirates at Brewers may not get much attention, but 1st half under and under game looks better than any other match up

PIT/MIL 1st 5 innings UNDER 4.5 -113 for 1 unit(W)
PIT/MIL UNDER 8.5 -118 for 2 units(W)

Lets roll boys !
3-0 +4.00 units

Monday, April 03, 2006

Snakes at Rocky Mountain High

National League sleepers in match up giving these teams very low juice.
Both of these teams did the spring in Tucson and know each other well.
The game will play out in Coors Field's thin air, but Webb does much better here than Jennings.

ARZ -106 for 1 unit(L)

I did go up in the 8th only to have Terry Mulholland give away my money.
0-1 -1.06 units

Saturday, April 01, 2006

MLB Opening Day

The Spring is in the air. The days are getting longer and warmer, the Boys of Summer is back in action. Getting right into the main event, The Champions Chicago White Sox vs The Contender Cleveland Indians.

CC Sabathia sandbagging the grapefruit games, not really sandbagging more like testing pitches outside his means. Mark Buehrie is already in form
looking like he'll start of with string of early wins.

Take CLE/CWS UNDER 8 -112 for 1 unit(L)

I'm really stoked on Buehrie and 1st Half at PICKEM looks like money to me.

CWS 1st 5 innings -114 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +0.88 units