Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Wednesday MLB *ONE PLAY

Lets play Oakland A's at home with Zito. I was thinking of Under too, but not sure if Schilling will be sharp or go deep. Both are good Side is better.

OAK -140 for 3 units(W)
1-0 +3.00 units

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Tuesday MLB

I just lost my write up and now time is running short.
Not sure if I can get back with the reasoning, but these are the plays.

DET/NYY UNDER 9.5 -105 for 2 units(Rained out)
DET +159 for 1 unit

TAMP First 5 innings +183 for 0.5 units(L)
TAMP -0.5 First 5 innings +224 for 0.5 units(L)
Casey didn't do his part, but not feeling too bad about risking single unit loss here.
0-2 -1.00 unit

Sunday, August 27, 2006

World Series Thoughts

1 Arizona Diamondbacks +9000
4 Boston Red Sox +1757
6 Chicago White Sox +840
7 Cincinnati Reds +2144
10 Detroit Tigers +590
11 Florida Marlins +7000
14 Los Angeles Angels +4414
15 Los Angeles Dodgers +1536
17 Minnesota Twins +1042
18 New York Mets +315
19 New York Yankees +324
20 Oakland Athletics +1170
21 Philadelphia Phillies +3205
23 San Diego Padres +2746
24 San Francisco Giants +5339
26 St. Louis Cardinals +953
28 Texas Rangers +10000
29 Toronto Blue Jays +10000

It's late August and pretty good idea to start looking for World Series values. Personally, I like the American League team to win it all so that will take out half of the field. Next I eliminate Yankees, AL favorite, and take No#2 Tigers. From there I go with Twins to come up in Wild Card. AL Central is playing the toughest baseball and this division should produce the Champion. White Sox can get hot in September, but clearly not the best in this group currently so 2 teams from Central is my strong picks.

2nd tier pick is Boston, similar to White Sox in Central, but twice the value in AL East. Boston has the cast of characters to knot this up with the Yanks come September and they will remember the sweep, it should be another classic.

Dark horse pick is Angels. Although Oakland may prevail in the West you have to love the value of LA Angels with good young arms, solid pen, speed, pretty balanced. It's the wild wild west, go with the Angels.

Picks look like this.
DET +595 for 5 units/return (2975 - 350) +2625
MIN +1042 for 2 units/return (2084 - 650) +1434
BOS +1757 for 1 unit/return (1757-750) +1057
LAA +4414 for 0.50 units/return (2207-800) +1407

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Saturday MLB

The fades are on the money. I'm not trying to be funny either.
So the advantage continues to fade the plays, which have been popular public type picks.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Baltimore Orioles.
James Shields vs Erik Bedard.
James is on the rise. He is pitching 2.84 ERA in August posting 2-1 record in 4 outings. Boston (3-2 ND), @Seattle (2-0 loss), Toronto (8-3 win) and Texas (3-4 win) He is a home pitcher (3.24 home vs 5.91 road), day pitcher (3.91 day vs 5.04 night) right bats are hitting .326 and left .265 Strike to walk is excellent 27-5
Erik is on the decline. He is pitching 4.63 ERA in August posting 0-3 record in 4 outings. Seattle (2-1 loss), @Toronto (3-4 loss), @New York (6-3 ND) and Toronto (9-2 loss) Erik also like the home mound (3.16 home vs 5.00 road),
day pitcher (3.14 day vs 4.48 night) right bats are hitting .259 and left .227
Don't take his surface record for August, against Mariners he got no run support, against Yankees he left giving up 1 run and against Blue Jays he faced Doc Halladay twice. His last outing was bad.
I'm backing good pitching on this one, is it a fade or a play?

TAM/BAL UNDER 9 at 100 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Frickin' Friday MLB

Taking the Overnight line.
I see there's a Thunderstorm in Denver, but conditions are calm and by game time Friday it will be an non-factor. Air will be heavy with humidity with little wind and slight chance of rain for comfortable pitching condition.
Padres Mike Thompson 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP may not look like much and looking at last 10 starts he only has 1 win, 3 losses and 6 ND. The team record for this stretch is 4-6. What I do like about Mike is his pitches per innings are economical and his last start was a emergency start with 14 days between starts and 1 inning of relief appearance sandwiched in between kind of like a pinch pitcher which is tough to get into the right mindset. Here he comes in with 5 days rest and he trends Under, sign of good pitching. Team trends 6-4 Under last 10 and 4-1 Under last 5.
Rockies have Jeff Francis 9-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and he has been lights out since the beginning of July (2.02 ERA 14 earned runs in 62.1 innings pitched. Best in Majors in that span with 50+ innings) His last outing against the Mets show 5 runs given up, but only 2 were earned, 6th inning 2 errors, a passed ball and walked in 2 runs left the game 5-4 recording a loss, game ended 7-4 Mets. His team production is doing little to help Jeff's record (scored in only 12 of last 80 innings, August batting .164 with RISP) but team has recorded 7-3 in his last 10 starts. Coming in revenge situation with a rare shaky start in last match-up against San Diego (7/29, 2-4 loss) and Rockies badly in need of good Francis outing this game begs for the Under. Current season match-ups are 8-5 Under and at Colorado 5-2 Under.

Side note: San Diego, +140 Road Underdog with winning season playing Colorado with losing season in August are winner 63.8% since 97'.
32-26 Padres record away. 32-29 Rockies record at home.

SDP/COL UNDER 9.5 at -125 for 3 units(L)
Easy fade 0-1 -3.75 units

Thursday MLB

Not having much luck playing MLB, matter of fact it's the worst performance counting back 7 seasons. It's always a downer to bleed losses, but my plays have made solid gains 12 years out of 15 and made late streaks to rally back from losses in 3 out of 12 winning years. A pattern I did notice was my 3 losing seasons came after a top performing years and last season was a killer year.
Right now the plays are looking like good fades and can't blame anyone for that.
I'll be playing through the slump so play or fade good luck to all.

Taking the Total with Boston at L.A. Angels with support of StatFox.
The play is Over with Total at 8.5 with a hot bullpen w/ERA under 2.00 last 5 games against opponent with struggling bullpen WHIP over 1.750 last 15 games.

BOS/LAA OVER 8.5 at -110 for 3 units(L)
Fader 0-1 -3.30 units

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Wednesday MLB

SF Giants to take the visiting desert snakes.
I put my stakes on Schmidt. Does he ever lose to the D-Backs at home?

SFG -1.5 at +129 for 2 units(L)
1 run Giants win, not enough.
Baltimore to win at home against not as tough on the road playing Twins.

BAL -109 for 1 unit(L)
Hate to say anything bad about my home town Dodgers, but Padres are killing L.A. and I can't help thinking there is value with Woody tonight.
Pads are +111, thinking this will hit +115 near game time.
Will be pulling the trigger late.

SDP +114 for 1 unit(W)

Phillies at Cubs. There are wind gusts hitting 18~22 mph west with expected Thunderstorm tonight. The conditions are not constant as winds are calm right now. Myers for Phillies is struggling and opponents are hitting the long ball. Guzman in place of Marmol is not ready for this spot having problems getting out of innings and Phillies bats will not be forgiving.

PHL/CUBS OVER 10 at 111 for 1 unit(L)
Yanks at Seattle. Under match up
NYY/SEA UNDER 9 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

1-4 -4.27 units

Monday, August 21, 2006

Monday MLB

Sorry I missed Sunday Baseball being out all day. Sometimes it's good to take a break after a win rather than a loss.

Looking at Tampa Bay with Texas making the visit. Eaton pitching for the Rangers looked pretty good. James Shields for the D-Rays look good too, but his team does not support. Shields has pitched 4 quality outing out of 6 games started, he is 3-1 at home with team record of 4-2 with 3.03 ERA and 1.290 WHIP, but his numbers are eroding recording 3 quality outings out of last 7 games started with record of 1-4, team record of 2-5 with 4.61 ERA and 1.396 WHIP.
Rangers come back from 6-0 against the Tigers at home on Sunday that's 3 out of 4 from Detroit. Rangers rolling on the road. Eaton lacking compiled starts, but 3 out of 5 quality starts with one of the games not reflecting his performance because he was ejected. Texas has been very supportive of Eaton on the mound.

TEX -131 for 3 units(L)
TEX -128 for 2 units(L)
Taking the chase tonight with Chan Ho scratched and Dodgers Billingsley heating up.

LAD -144 for 2 units(L)
LAD/SDP Under 8.5 at -106 for 3 units(W)

1-3 -6.37 units

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Saturday MLB

ARZ D-Backs pitching C. Vargas at SDP against C. Hensley in the wild wild west. 8.5 Total price is moving Under. I know the ERA's are dropping on both sides and Pads are pathetic against RHP. Both pitchers trending Under and have strung few unders in a row. Clay is pitching good and he's had bad luck games reflecting his record, but Vargas has not seen 8.5 total in awhile. Going against the late money move. Pitching advantage to San Diego at home.

*Buying 1 run.
ARZ/SDP Over 7.5 at -124 for 2 units(Cancelled)
Missed the pitcher change. Hensley is not out there.


I'm liking the O's today. This line is sharp today and it was hit at the open, but the low profile match made it quiet. The smart money is on O's and it's likely riding the last 3 wins. Eric Cooper behind the plate O's are 6-1 last 7 and 7-3 home team vs Toronto last 10.

BAL -112 for 3 units(W)

BAL -120 for 2 units(W)

Finally a good size winner. Too bad I didn't take action on the Total as that game ended with total of 8.
2-0 +5.00 units

Friday, August 18, 2006

Friday MLB

Time to roll up my sleeves and up the games. On with the program.

I lost with Mariners in the 1st of this series, but Seattle was in that game for most part. I've backed Weaver on the mound with good regularity and there is no doubt in his arm. Hernandez is performing below Weaver's accomplished 9-2 with 2.14 ERA and excellent 0.967 WHIP 2006 debut. But lets give the recent outing a closer look.
Weaver's last 3 starts are 1 win and 2 no decision with Angels winning 2-1
He is throwing 4.07 ERA and 1.302 WHIP.
Hernandez's last 3 starts are 1 win, 1 loss and 1 no decision with Mariners winning 2-1. He is throwing 3.86 ERA and 1.285 WHIP.
So as the numbers indicate Weavers value on the decline and Hernadez on the rise. I would agree the +1.5 runline is the strong wager, but value play is Moneyline.

SEA +134 for 2 units(L)

Chicago White Sox and Freddy Garcia take on the Twins with Bonser.
Players losing some faith with Sox on the road or is it just Twins being at home.
This is a excellent price on White Sox hitting against Bonser and Garcia taking on low scoring Twins. Under is also a play.

CWS -112 for 1 unit(L)
CWS/MIN UNDER 10 -115 for 2 units(Push)
0-2-1 -3.12 units

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Thursday Dog Play of the Day

I should of stuck to my guns behind Texas against Angels or straight play on Over, but that's all spilled milk. I would back the Rangers on their first day on the road if I knew the pitcher better, but I'm taking the game back in Anahiem.
The indicators point to Angels taking out weak Moyer on the road, why not? Mariners are getting kicked around in the AL West. Because they always bring their game against Angels and Mariners are opportunistic team with comfort playing at the Big "A"

SEA +162 for 2 units(L)
Moyer was OK and Mariners are still poised to take a game.

The addition will start earlier than my dog play.
Toronto at Tampa Bay. The dome holds no advantage against the Jays and A.J. will be a tough customer today. Kazmir return from DL means observation and limitation so short day at the office maybe the case.

TOR -109 for 2 units(W)
I think there's value on the Over. Outside the match up under trend Rangers are hitting good numbers and Tigers must take the fill-in to school.

TEX/DET OVER 10 +112 for 2 units(L)
1-2 -2.00 units

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Wednesday MLB

Still playing the Angels Texas match. It's another blazing hot day in Texas the kind of day that Over cashes, but I'll play the hot rookie for the Halos. Yes it's the 20th game straight and
Texas still swinging some hot bats there's even bad blood brewing between these two teams.
Going with Halos playing the tight second in AL West to go home holding solid second.
Angels have hitten Eaton before and Vlad just feasts on Rangers.

LAA +104 for 3 units(L)
0-1 -3.00 units

Monday, August 14, 2006

Tuesday MLB

My overnight play is on Texas.
Angels split the NY Yankees series and enter Texas.
Ervin Santana penciled in for the Halos, but there is a chance he will be a no-go. Option will be Justin Moseley, Kevin Gregg, Hector Carrasco or Chris Bootcheck. Angels playing .500 ball on this road trip going on 19th consecutive game no doubt these two games with Texas in fight for AL West is big, but Texas definitely seeing the ball with inflated OPS number and Padilla can go toe to toe with Santana in good shape. Rangers rested and playing good ball.

*List Texas Vincente Padilla only & action on Angels.

TEX -134 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.68 units

Monday MLB

MLB Baseball is entering the NFL transition period. Capping baseball in itself is declining in player pool and the books are taking hits from the pool that's playing so coming into this turn the lines should be pretty sharp.

Looking at Boston I see there is a chance of Thunder Storm for tomorrow and conditions are scattered clouds and winds blowing at 19mph SW, thats out to Center in Fenway. This is nice Over condition.
Beckett overall 13-6, Home 6-2 with 3.84 ERA is a winning pitcher. I like big Texan Power pitchers in the mold of Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan... but, Beckett's performance have dropped since the Marlin days and has recorded ND to KC, loss to CLE and ND to LAA for his last 3 starts and his team is 1-2.
His starts are also Over dominant 7-3 last 10, only 1 of the Boston win was recorded Under.
Nate Robertson for the Tigers is also on two game slide, but both losses were quality start with lacking run support. Robertson getting batters to hit the grounders showing pretty good ground to flyball ratio which will be to his advantage under the wind.
The speculation here is Over with Boston OPS numbers heating up and Tigers needing to get some balls in the jet stream.

DET/BOS OVER 9,5 at -121 for 3 units(W)
1-0 +3.00 units

Saturday, August 12, 2006

Saturday MLB

At PNC Park tonight the match up brings back good'ol Jeff Weaver, the former Dodger - former Angel and one of my favorite pitcher.
He maybe coming off a good outing I still don't trust him. Jeff Weaver on the road, I'm not impressed and Ian Snell at night is not too shabby.
Pirates play OK at home and their recent home games record 9 out of 13 wins.
Cards have problems with Central division rivals.
Just watch out for Albert hitting .398 at PNC Park.

PIT +105 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.10 units

Friday, August 11, 2006

Friday MLB

Following the Halos to New York. Dropping Cleveland series 1-2 with a crushing final defeat, losing Santana (hit by a comebacker listed day to day) and taxing the bullpen the final score 2-14. Santana out of the game Indians smelled blood pounding on the relievers. Mike Soccia raised the white flag taking out his starting line up off the field allowing some rest looking to this 4 game Yankees series in the Bronx. Angels are playing their 15th consecutive game (8/7 was a make up game with the White Sox) and the momentum has halted or I would consider back to square one. Midway into this road trip the record is 2-2 and this series has the feel of being a grind. The scores may come, but I'll look for quality pitching with Angels LHP Joe Saunders, another young gun, and Yankees RHP Chris Lidle, 5-1 since July, and better defense to keep the runners from cashing in. Angels called up Chris Bootcheck from AAA Salt Lake for 3rd stint. 2005 split season with Salt Lake and Angels, 5 appearance as a Angel 0-1 3.38 (18.2 innings with 7ER) recorded 6 innings 1ER in Yankees stadium last season. Scott Shield and K-Rod did not pitch yesterday. This may sound more of speculation than analysis but, coming off momentum killer games I have a feeling the runs are going to fall short.

Buying 0.5 runs.

LAA/NYY UNDER 10.5 at -117 for 2 units(L)
Did not factor Ponson coming out, that was stupid I should of known better, but that's the way it goes.
0-1 -2.34 units

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Thursday MLB

Here we go again to Jacobs Field. Maybe I didn't sense the tenacity of the Indians in game #1 of the series when they knocked out Angels young phenom Jered Weaver in the 6th and tied the game. Maybe the energy shifted in game #2 as Lacky struggled and though the Halos hit Westbrook in the early going he got out of jams and grew stronger to shut down the Angels in late innings. Indians taking their stand, but Angels are not going to lay down here and this should be a battle. Halos still hitting lefties, Indians bullpen is still an adventure and very rare to get 9 hits with no runs. Last time Halos got shut out (6/05 @TB Angels had 11 hits no run) they came back to beat D-Rays and Kazmir 12-2 and that was Ervin Santana getting the win. It may not be as easy for Ervin this go around. I'll just look for runs today.

LAA/CLE OVER 9.5 at -108 for 2 units(W)
Santana gone after striking out the first batter with 3 pitches. Comebacker hits him and now the Angels are looking at a long night.
1-0 +2.00 units

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Wednesday MLB

Moneyline moving to the home team Nationals with 49-63 (26-25 home) record. D-Train pulling into DC in game 2 of the series. Contradictory to Marlins road record Willis is better on the road and his team has supported with 8-4 in last 12 starts. Nats are favoring lefties, but Willis is no ordinary lefty, when he completes a quality outing following a bad game there's a good chance he will duplicate that quality outing. Nationals/Expos have not won a season series from FLA since 1998. Marlins are 41-29 since 5/22, first team in Majors to win 47 out of first 100 games after losing 29 or more in first 40 games.
Ramon Ortiz has pitched 10 quality outings in his last 14, but did not look good in last game allowing 7 hits, 5 walks in 6 innings he was lucky to give up only 2 runs. Opposing batters are hitting .238 the first time through the line up and .317 thereafter

FLA First 5 innings -116 for 2 units(L)
FLA -116 for 2 units(L)
Adding Angels at Cleveland for continuation of Halos surge.

LAA -117 for 2 units(L)
0-3 -6.98 units

Monday, August 07, 2006

Tuesday MLB

Is Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim a contender or a pretender?
Is the glass half full or half empty? If you compare against Cleveland, Angels look half full and Indians half empty.
This is just the start of the 10 game road trip. Knocking off the slumping White Sox the Halos will move to Cleveland against another struggling club the Indians. The Tribe is not playing their brand of baseball circa 2005 in fact they are playing like 2003. 3-7 in last 10 games and losing too many close games. Jeremy Sowers will take the ball and he is a future bright spot, hard to believe he came up through 2001 amateur draft.
Fastball in low 90's, but favors to keep it at 90, good slider, good change, command and smart.
Too bad he'll be opposing Jered Weaver with Angels surging on the road.
Halos are hitting lefties at .328 (Vlad is hitting lefties .416, Quinlan hitting lefties .360, Rivera .311, Salmon .308 and even Tommy Murphy in limited AB is hitting lefties .350) compared to combined Indians hitting righties .243 and Angels are solid out of the pen.

Money line moving towards Cleveland. Figuring rested Tribe getting some respect, but Blake on 15 day DL is out of the line up, sunny clear summer condition with some wind 14mph NNE. I guess Hafner is always dangerous.
Angels ML now -110

LAA -113 for 3 units(W)
Texas at Oakland.
Backing Millwood on the Road (7-1 with 3.13 ERA) and eliminating the Rangers pen. Rangers have dropped 3, but club is 10-5-4 in road series and 3-0-1 in last 4 series. A's are batting .249, the lowest in Majors, Pinch hitters are 1-33 (0.30).
Shane Komine pitching for the A's got his last call up when he was hot in the minors (6-0 with 0.42 ERA) Pitched against TOR 7/30 (6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 4 BB & 1 SO) A's have the historical advantage, but not today.

TEX First 5 innings -119 for 2 units(Push)
Had the advantage and could not pull it out. 4-4 tied at end of 5th!

1-0-1 +3.00 units

Monday MLB

This is a make up game for LAA/CWS.
Backing the Over with K. Escobar and M. Buehrle. Both pitchers are improving, but not strong enough to entice the Under.
OPS numbers are rising for both clubs. Angels hitting lefties .341 and White Sox hitting rights .325 in last 10 games.
Angels Over 7-3.
White Sox Over 8-1-1.

Buying 0.5 to O/U 9

LAA/CWS OVER 9 at -128 for 2 units(Push)

Saturday, August 05, 2006

Saturday MLB

Today's day game selection coming to you from the cozy confines of controlled Rogers Centre. Javier Vazquez combining bad pitching days with tough schedule can't seem to get his game going. Hitters are reading his pitches by the third time through the line up have a .377 average (65-for-172)
Javier has not won since 7/6 BAL
(5.1 innings 5 hits, 5 runs all earned and 1 HR) Yes, he won giving up 5!
Vazquez is 0-1 with a 10.50 ERA this season against Toronto and is 2-4 with a 5.93 ERA lifetime against the Blue Jays.

TEAM TOTAL BLUE JAYS over 4.5 at -113 for 3 units(L)
Vazquez on his game. Jays even wasted the bases loaded 9th.
0-1 -3.39 units

Friday, August 04, 2006

Friday MLB

Thunderstorm condition in North East which will be clearing by evening, but looking at Shea Stadium the wind will continue to blow. The forecast estimates drop from current 15mph to 13mph NNE.
Randy Wolf will pitch for the visiting Phillies, though he lacks enough starts to rate his current form he's yet to show command and stamina. Maybe he'll go bit longer than
7/30 FLA (4.1 innings 3 hits, 3 runs with 1 HR, 97 pitches)
El Duque looked pretty good in his last 2 outing and the Mets have strung 4 wins behind his start, but lets not over look 7/16 @CHI (1.2 innings 7 hits, 5 runs with 1 HR) he's giving 2 quality starts out of 3 and giving the runs in early innings.
PHL bats have been hot with their recent run 8-2 last 10 games. 7-3 Over's.
Home team NYM are 5-5 last 10 dropping 2 of last 3 series, but it's not lack of offense Mets are batting just about .300 from both sides of the plate. 8-2 Over's.

PHL/NYM First 5 innings Over 5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
Nice move avoiding the game Over 9.5
1-0 +2.00 units

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Thursday MLB

Looking at off the main stream selection in Cleveland at Boston.
Jake takes the ball for the Indians and on the surface that 6.18 road number really stands out, but if you consider 7/17 @LAA as his low point (3.2 innings pitched,12 hits, 7 runs, 5 earned with 2 HR's) he is back on track and efficiency has improved, 7/29 SEA going 8 innings with 104 pitches scattering 6 hits,
2 runs, the lone home run was the only mistake pitched to Ibanez in the 4th.
Josh Beckett the hard throwing RH Texan had high expectation in his NL to AL transition which many view as not being met. But you know the Sox have signed him to 3 year extension and he will be counted on come late season.
The pitching game is based on balance and adjustments, He too is back on track since 7/14 OAK (4.1 innings pitched, 8 hits, 7 runs with 1 HR).
Interesting indicator is Beckett adjusts very well in games after walking 4.
OPS numbers around .800~.900 for both teams. Bullpen is fair to shaky.
Today's total came out shaded Over at 9.5 compared to last 3 games at 11 and upward price movement was relatively late.

Buying 0.5 for Total of 10 runs.

CLE/BOS UNDER 10 at -109 for 2 units(L)
Should of played 5 innings, wheels came off in the 6th!
0-1 -2.18 units