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Thursday, August 24, 2006

Frickin' Friday MLB

Taking the Overnight line.
I see there's a Thunderstorm in Denver, but conditions are calm and by game time Friday it will be an non-factor. Air will be heavy with humidity with little wind and slight chance of rain for comfortable pitching condition.
Padres Mike Thompson 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP may not look like much and looking at last 10 starts he only has 1 win, 3 losses and 6 ND. The team record for this stretch is 4-6. What I do like about Mike is his pitches per innings are economical and his last start was a emergency start with 14 days between starts and 1 inning of relief appearance sandwiched in between kind of like a pinch pitcher which is tough to get into the right mindset. Here he comes in with 5 days rest and he trends Under, sign of good pitching. Team trends 6-4 Under last 10 and 4-1 Under last 5.
Rockies have Jeff Francis 9-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and he has been lights out since the beginning of July (2.02 ERA 14 earned runs in 62.1 innings pitched. Best in Majors in that span with 50+ innings) His last outing against the Mets show 5 runs given up, but only 2 were earned, 6th inning 2 errors, a passed ball and walked in 2 runs left the game 5-4 recording a loss, game ended 7-4 Mets. His team production is doing little to help Jeff's record (scored in only 12 of last 80 innings, August batting .164 with RISP) but team has recorded 7-3 in his last 10 starts. Coming in revenge situation with a rare shaky start in last match-up against San Diego (7/29, 2-4 loss) and Rockies badly in need of good Francis outing this game begs for the Under. Current season match-ups are 8-5 Under and at Colorado 5-2 Under.

Side note: San Diego, +140 Road Underdog with winning season playing Colorado with losing season in August are winner 63.8% since 97'.
32-26 Padres record away. 32-29 Rockies record at home.

SDP/COL UNDER 9.5 at -125 for 3 units(L)
Easy fade 0-1 -3.75 units

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