Monday, April 30, 2007

MLB Monday

1-1 yesterday. YTD 14-8 +7.38 units

El Duque is a no go so in his place Mets call up Chan Ho Park 7.29 ERA in triple A New Orleans.
I think Fish will hit Park today and Olsen is settling down.

FLA ML +133 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.33 units

Sunday, April 29, 2007

MLB Sunday

2-0 yesterday: YTD 13-7 +7.42 units

Jered pitched a good game yesterday, but Jeff did not and the Weaver brothers continue they're different path. Well I have plays on Angel's and Seattle's game.
Escobar takes the mound for the Angels against the South Siders and Sox will counter with their big gun Mark Buehrle. Interesting note to this game is both pitchers have struggled against their respective match up (Buehrle 1-3 4.16 ERA against Angels and Escobar 2-9 5.93 ERA against White Sox) But no matter pitching is setting the tone and both pens looks good to go. Expecting a improved outing with Escobar and the outcome to be close.

CHI/LAA UNDER 9 at -105 for 2 units(W)

KC at Seattle will feature starter fill in and project in progress. Baek filling in for King Felix and Bannister is a call up who Bell said is expected to stay in the bigs for awhile so not too much emphasis will be put on his first start. Pen will get action in this game and I like the chance on the Over.

Let's Rock!

KCR/SEA OVER 9 at -102 for 2 units(L)

1-1 -0.04 units

Friday, April 27, 2007

MLB Saturday

1-1 last night but won the bigger bet! 11-7 +4.32 units

I'm fishing for a good ML price on Braves at Rockies. Taking Smoltz on the road and if the line looks square to you maybe you caught Hirsh's last game in San Diego where he shined against Maddux. Jason Hirsh is no doubt a good young pitcher with a nice curve mixing in change ups with his fastball and lefties are only hitting .200 too bad Smoltz will look to redeem himself where he is 10-4 against the Rox.

Braves are getting -115 or about so I'm shooting for -110 or better.

ATL ML -109 2 units(W)

Another game I like, but have not pulled the trigger, is BOS/NYY Over 11. How many Overs does the Yankees have? Karstens will tax the bull pen once again and New York enters another game where they're option is to out score the opponents rather than to out pitch.
Not ready to take this yet as Red Sox UNDER on the road is stronger than Yankees OVER at home.

Didn't take it.
Something about Weaver of Angels...I recall watching his older brother (now with Seattle) in amazement when he first came up. Array of arsenals he pitched with command and he could drop down on you with the sweeping side arm I thought he was going to be really good, but mediocrity in result will water down all that good stuff. Ok, no more talk of bad genes.
Jered had a late start and needs to put in more innings he is pitching well with no physical problem with his biceps. It's just those bad inning with +30 pitches that's costing him game.
Alright Garland will go up for Chi Sox and Angels are his nemesis. Angels are showing losses on the road, but showing better bat and pen is tops in Majors. Time to turn it around.

LAA +110 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +3.10 units

MLB Friday

1-1 last night with loss on juice. 10-6 +3.14 units

Yes taking Milton on the mound. He's lost three, but fourth against Pirates on the road I see Reds edging Snell and the Pirates.

Reds ML +149 for 1 unit(L)

Dodgers on the slide, but Padres coming home after losses to Arizona too. Battle of the west continues and Big Blue will get to Clay tonight as tall ass Hendrickson will hold his own.

LAD ML +109 for 2 units(W)

What a game Dodgers come back in the 9th
1-1 +1.18 units

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

MLB Thursday

9-5 +3.18 units

0-1 last time out.

Giants vs Dodgers is always a good match up no matter how the two teams are in the standings.
Dodgers had owned this match up in Los Angeles but I guess they forgot to tell the Giants that last night (6-4 G-Men). 3rd of the series is another good one with Penny going against Russ Ortiz the heavy underdog. I like the Under in this match up both pitcher are able to pitch deep, bull pens are good and the money is pushing the number from 8 to 8.5 Dodgers recent Over run (4-1 O/U last 5) combined with strong home Over trend (7-3 O/U) and Barry Bonds popping HR's hitting .433 in last 10 games will give this Under better than fair value. Keep in mind Giants playing 5-13 O/U I like the Under, but also looking for better price with a higher total.

What is up with Matchbook!? They are refusing to give SFG/LAD TOTAL 8.5 and holding at 8 with Over getting heavy juice. I see Pinnacle offering Under 8.5 at +107, to non-US customers, doing me no good. I'm going to hold off for 8.5 and if it doesn't happen I'll have to call it.

Since I'm waiting on Giants/Dodgers total I'll put one more that's available to take.
Cincy ML at -104 looks good to take early.

CIN ML -104 for 2 units(L)
I checked out the game early and chalked it up as a winner, WTF do I know.

Making a late addition, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles. It's a square play on Boston with Beckett going against Cabrera. I do like Cabrera on the mound he eats up innings, but you have to watch his performance fluctuation he can get bit wild. I expect Beckett to rise to expectation he received when he first came to Boston and that is a high bar.

BOS -137 for 2 units(W)

BTW, Phil Hughes pitching for the Yankees have a live arm. Quiet kid cruised through Spring Training good enough to make the 5th spot on the rotation. Joe Torre said we should not see this kid early as he wanted to groom him in triple A unless the Yanks get into trouble. Well, Yanks are on the slide and they need to stop the bleeding. Looking forward to seeing the kid pitch in Bronx. I would back this if not for the inflated price Yankees bring to money line. I'd say majority has little idea of Hughes, but they are counting on Yanks being due.

I'm glad I stayed off the Under at Dodger stadium.
1-1 -0.04 units

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

MLB Tuesday

YTD: 9-4-1 +6.16 units (2-0-1 yesterday)

One game tonight and that's Yanks at Tampa Bay. Go with returning ace Wang and against Kazmir. NY is thirsting for a win.

NYY ML -149 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.98 units

Monday, April 23, 2007

MLB Monday

2007 Season record 7-4
Units: +1.98
HOU/MIL O 9 (W) +2.00
LAD ML (W) +2.00

MIL ML (L) -3.45
BAL ML (W) +2.00

PHL/WAS U 8,5 (W) +1.00
CLE/NYY O 11 (W) +2.00
PIT/MIL U 8.5 (L) -3.24

MIL/CIN O 9 (W) +2.00
CIN ML (L) -1.00

SDP ML (L) -3.33

ARZ ML (W) +2.00

It's going to be a nice day in Los Angeles. It's a kind of day you want to pick up your bat & glove and head out to the nearest park. Hope everyone caught the Yanks vs BoSox series. Do they have game or what? The season is still young and that was just an appetiser keep your eyes on American League East.

I have a theory on Yanks and Red Sox, especially after a series like that, it drains the teams.
So we have D-Rays taking on the Yanks (Over 10~10.5 is a popular pick) Yanks will send Kei Igawa to the mound and he is hittable, but this is not my pick because New York lost the Boston series there is a good chance for Yanks to take this game regardless of pitching.
My take is on Toronto at Boston. Big Dog Blue Jays might be tempting too bad their pen is too risky to support any lead although I think the runs will be tough tonight. Boston before the NY series played out an Under series with Toronto and they are still a Under trending team. Toronto on it's recent form is not driving in runs. The key will be Ohka pitching as deep into the game as possible and he is capable of going 7 innings.

TOR/BOS UNDER 10 at +111 for 1 unit(Push)
TOR/BOS UNDER 10.5 at +109 for 2 units(W)

Blue Jays was the easy play and at better price, but in the end "W" is all that counts.

I'm also taking White Sox at KC. I know the Royals line looks sharp and they did it to me when I backed Minny, but when Sox get going they will string some W's and that's what I'm after.

CWS -119 for 2 units(W)
2-0-1 +4.18 units

Saturday, April 21, 2007

MLB Saturday

Houston vs Milwaukee. W. Rodriguez (Astros) vs C. Capuano (Brewers) Game to go Over 9
Stro's bats are heating up and they have gone Over on the Road. Brew Crew are playing their games Over.

HOU/MIL OVER 9 at -105 for 2 units(W)


Pittsburgh vs Los Angeles. I. Snell (Pirates) vs B. Penny (Dodgers)
Go Big Blue. Brad is again hot out of the gate and the line up is connecting.

LAD ML -145 for 2 units(W)

2-0 +4.00 units

Friday, April 20, 2007

MLB Friday

Have two plays today.

Minny at KC seems kind of square. Pitchers are more or less average, but on the strength Twins momentum and KC losing ways.

MIN ML -115 for 3 units(L)
Very square indeed
Toronto at Baltimore is a interesting match up. Toronto will send AJ Burnett who is not locating and throwing too many pitches. I do not trust his arm playing on the road. Cabrera is looking like the O's work horse capable of holding his own at home. O's pen has been shutting down the opponents and line up is hitting RHP well.

BAL ML -124 for 2 units(W)
1-1 -1.45 units

Thursday, April 19, 2007

MLB Thursday

I will play two games today. In the National League game, Phillies vs Nationals backing the veteran Moyer over Patterson. I feel a bounce back spot and Nats are not seeing the ball.

PHL ML -125 for 2 units

No Play Canceling out PHL ML
Taking PHL/WAS UNDER 8.5 at -119 for 1 unit(W)

In the American League game, Indians vs Yankees backing the Total score to go Over 11. Rasner for the Yanks is a fill in and a work in progress. Carmona for the Indians is a cusp starting pitcher Cleveland has been tinkering with. I'll look for the bats to stay hot.

CLE/NYY OVER 11 at -111 for 2 units(W)

Taking PIT/MIL UNDER 8.5 at -108 for 3 units(L)

Should of stayed with Phillies. Lose the big bet.
2-1 -0.24 units

Monday, April 16, 2007

MLB Monday

Back to Monday again. Man, this weather is really screwing baseball schedule for lots of teams.
I'm glad not to have backed Angels this morning in Boston. Santana is getting killed again, but the Over is looking good with all the wind whipping around. Right now it's 6-1 Boston top of 4th.

I'm going with the total Brewers at Reds. Numbers point to weak pitching on both sides setting a high total in a National League game. I will roll with it.

MIL/CIN OVER 9 at -101 for 2 units(W)

Brewers being a road favorite is not right. Milton with the Reds might be a meatball pitcher, but the line up can out hit the Brew Crew and Capuano has little success in early season. Taking the home dog to bite.

CIN +111 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 +1.02 units

Sunday, April 15, 2007

MLB Sunday

Padres are in town and I would love to go see them at Dodger Stadium, but I need the rest at home. Young looks to be in good form. San Diego to take 2nd in a row and the series in
Los Angeles. Wolf will get out pitched tonight at home.

SDP ML -111 for 3 units(L)

0-1 -3.33 units

Saturday, April 14, 2007

MLB Saturday

D-Backs are playing hot out of the gate. Hernandez on the mound for the Snakes and the pen has been lights out.

Arizona ML at -111 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units