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Wednesday, April 25, 2007

MLB Thursday

9-5 +3.18 units

0-1 last time out.

Giants vs Dodgers is always a good match up no matter how the two teams are in the standings.
Dodgers had owned this match up in Los Angeles but I guess they forgot to tell the Giants that last night (6-4 G-Men). 3rd of the series is another good one with Penny going against Russ Ortiz the heavy underdog. I like the Under in this match up both pitcher are able to pitch deep, bull pens are good and the money is pushing the number from 8 to 8.5 Dodgers recent Over run (4-1 O/U last 5) combined with strong home Over trend (7-3 O/U) and Barry Bonds popping HR's hitting .433 in last 10 games will give this Under better than fair value. Keep in mind Giants playing 5-13 O/U I like the Under, but also looking for better price with a higher total.

What is up with Matchbook!? They are refusing to give SFG/LAD TOTAL 8.5 and holding at 8 with Over getting heavy juice. I see Pinnacle offering Under 8.5 at +107, to non-US customers, doing me no good. I'm going to hold off for 8.5 and if it doesn't happen I'll have to call it.

Since I'm waiting on Giants/Dodgers total I'll put one more that's available to take.
Cincy ML at -104 looks good to take early.

CIN ML -104 for 2 units(L)
I checked out the game early and chalked it up as a winner, WTF do I know.

Making a late addition, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles. It's a square play on Boston with Beckett going against Cabrera. I do like Cabrera on the mound he eats up innings, but you have to watch his performance fluctuation he can get bit wild. I expect Beckett to rise to expectation he received when he first came to Boston and that is a high bar.

BOS -137 for 2 units(W)

BTW, Phil Hughes pitching for the Yankees have a live arm. Quiet kid cruised through Spring Training good enough to make the 5th spot on the rotation. Joe Torre said we should not see this kid early as he wanted to groom him in triple A unless the Yanks get into trouble. Well, Yanks are on the slide and they need to stop the bleeding. Looking forward to seeing the kid pitch in Bronx. I would back this if not for the inflated price Yankees bring to money line. I'd say majority has little idea of Hughes, but they are counting on Yanks being due.

I'm glad I stayed off the Under at Dodger stadium.
1-1 -0.04 units


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