Friday, May 30, 2008

MLB Saturday

2-0 yesterday bring the YTD 43-29-1 +26.99 units.

Weekend baseball under the sun.
Michael Pelfrey 2-6 has a bad rep stringing two sub-par starts. He lasted 4 innings in both games throwing tons of pitches. But you know "what happened" doesn't always lead to "What will happen" and I don't think he'll factor into this game maybe get to the 6th or better. Total collapse at his point without some kind of health problem is not probable. He's had bad games, but he's also bounced back and his last quality start was a wasted effort, 5/15 against Washington at home, not to mention that was the second consecutive home quality start, 5/10 Cincy, making Michael's start combined with Mets home edge a interesting matinee wager.
The other side of the coin is surging Chad Billingsly and the Dodgers who snapped their 4 game losing streak with Russel Martin coming alive. Dodgers current road trip 1-4 include the St Louis series before the trip 2-6, Mets are better since coming home.

NEW YORK METS +113 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.13 units

Thursday, May 29, 2008

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 41-29-1 +24.69 units

Coming to end of May there have been enough games to sort through statistical numbers. Maybe too many numbers to make meaningful information distorted. It's always good to keep the numbers as comparable to current data. Season average vs recent average of 3 to 5 games as a indication of rise or decline and keep it simple.

Give credit to Tampa Bay their winning ways at home. They're 21-10 at home with 5-2 playing 7 games at home, 5/23 to5/29, the standout number of 69 hits catches my attention.
Even with such lofty number there is a pattern of fluctuation and recent home stand facing Baltimore and Texas Runs increased from 2 to 11 declined to 5 and it's been sliding slow from there. I think it's a sign of cooling runs. White Sox will send the big Cuban and Rays will send their work horse Shields. It looks Under to me.
WHITE SOX/RAYS UNDER 8 at -120 for 1 unit(W)

Toronto is a team heating up in their course of Western road trip and Angels with Weaver on the mound would seem better than McGowan and the Jays. But tonight Angels coming off a rest I expect things to get going a bit slower. This is no time to blink with Jays getting hot.

TORONTO +130 for 1 unit(W)

Domo Arigato
2-0 +2.30 units

MLB Thursday

Coming off a 2-0 with a very nice take home. YTD 41-28-1 +25.79 units

Doc was sitting down A's and Rich was just as good in last night's pitching duel. We are set for another round under the day light Jesse Litsch shut down the Royals in his last outing and he is excelling at 6-1. I like Oakland pitcher today too, Eveland 0.94 ERA at home, making this game a day time UNDER

UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.10 units

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 39-28-1 +20.21 units

Playing the late game on Thursday night at the Anaheim Stadium, the Big A is a beautiful park just ways from Disneyland. Joe Saunders and the Angels will be hosting the struggling Detroit Tigers. Pitching for Detroit will be a tough Venezuelan righty, Armando Galarraga 3-2 3.70 ERA, tougher on the road and right hand bats are getting nothing at .132 even with couple of bad May outing the trouble will not be the pitching tonight. This proud team is not going to lay down and get swept. Here is the combination big play selection.

TIGERS +129 for 2 units(W)
ANGELS/TIGERS UNDER 9 at -104 for 3 units(W)

2-0 +5.58 units

Monday, May 26, 2008

MLB Tuesday

1-0 yesterday. YTD 39-27-1 +21.21 units

Went to the mountains over this past weekend getting back just in time to put up the White Sox winner and I think I'll take them again. Mark Buehrle might seem tough to read with 2-5, team record 4-6, and couple of bad outings in May, but he is quality pitcher 60% when he takes the mound. Aaron Laffey has been impressive in May stringing 4 quality starts pitching into the 7th inning in all of those starts allowing 2 earned runs in 28 innings.
The 2 runs came against Chicago in 1-3 loss and this will be the second time around. Not a Cleveland hater just following White Sox dominance with Indians sliding offense.

WHITE SOX +134 for 1 unit(L)

Lost with Chicago, but will ride them again tomorrow and see you guys Thursday.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Memorial Day

1-0 last selection. YTD 38-27-1 +20.21 units

Javier Vasquez taking the mound against Paul Byrd and the Indians. Vasquez is the Man for the South Siders and there should have full confidence with his presence. Byrd pitching on and off, but even if he's on his game White Sox still have the edge.

WHITE SOX +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 units

Thursday, May 22, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday with last 7 going 5-1-1 good week in any cappers book.
YTD 37-27-1 +19.15 units

We are having some strange weather in the Los Angeles area. There was a tornado in Inland Empire and the day has gone from hot to cold. Will it have some impact on tonight's game at Chavez? I don't think the balls will have much lift and should help Lowe. Derek Lowe does not much to show this May, but he is at his best at home and veteran Right Hander is capable of bouncing back. On the other side Adam Wainwright has been fantastic at home, but out of his element on the road. He is coming off 2 consecutive sub par outing and his M.O. has been one run games. I view tonight as a bounce back game for both pitchers.

STL/LAD UNDER 8 at +106 for 1 unit(W)

Told ya, low scoring 1 run game.
1-0 +1.06 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 36-27-1 +18.15 units.

Good afternoon Baseball handicappers.
Angels are in Toronto with two good arms, Santana vs Burnett, and that's what I'm going to expect, good pitching. Ervin Santana, 6-1 with 2.97 ERA, with his road troubles from last season in his rear view Angels are winning behind Santana and O/U stands at 1-6. Burnett wins and losses maybe 50%, but he has been a work horse.

UNDER 8 at +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

MLB Wedensday

Selection record year to date: 35-27-1 +17.15 units

Working the daily grind today I'll take another day game at the bay. Tampa at Oakland is a good match up of the under paid. Backing Oakland at home with Eveland to stop the Rays.

OAKLAND -109 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

MLB Tuesday

I took Oakland off last nigh because the publishing's came after game start. It happens and if A's didn't score in the 1st inning I might of let it go, but no play. FYI the final was a Tampa win.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
John Maine vs Tom Glavine
John is in mid season form. In May he has been lights out 3-0 with 1.77 ERA and lefties can not touch him. If your searching for pitfalls he gives a bit on the road and under day light. Braves can be troublesome 9-5 during the day and when that happens at home 7-0. They're also a bit tough at home in general 16-5, matter of fact it's the best in NL. Chipper is on fire hitting 34 out of 40 games leading the majors in hitting average and Glavine takes the ball.
You know what I'll take Atlanta.

BRAVES +121 for 1 units(W)

1-0 +1.21 units

Monday, May 19, 2008

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection as Rays could not hold the lead. YTD 35-27-1 +17.15 units.

Oakland A's at home with Blanton defending their field against Tampa Bay Rays and their big gun Shields. We will welcome the surging Rays as they cross the time zones. Joe may not have the wins, but don't let the number fool you he has been quality and his team mates know it. Shields bit weaker on the road. Go with the home team.

**OAKLAND +103 for 1 unit**

Sorry this play did not make it out on time.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

MLB Sunday

1-0 on my big selection. YTD 35-26-1 +18.21 units.

It's Sunday Baseball. You know I been watching these like a hawk since the lines opened, but hadn't pulled the trigger. Day game today with Rays at Cards and this one is coming up fast.
Backing Rays with Jackson on the mound and fading Lohse. Got plenty more to hang this game on just not enough time. You guys study the card and see what I see, but that's all I have to say for now.

RAYS -106 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.06 units

Saturday, May 17, 2008

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 34-26-1 +15.21 units

The battle of Ohio takes place at the Great American Ballpark. Name alone tells you this field is about the game not the commercialism. Replacing the old Riverfront Stadium this place is recognized as a hitter friendly park. Just two nights ago against the Marlins game UNDER was jelling fast when 6 runs were given up at the top of 9th sailing OVER the Total. Matter of fact Reds racked up 20 runs in that 3 game series and gave up 16. How about last night with 5 HRs, but for all the highlight homers and big run games that's so memorable in this park truth to the myth is the home record stands UNDER at O/U 7-11. Which sets up the Cleveland series with Indians top in defense, 3rd in AL Total UNDER. Indians will send Fausto Carmona 4-1 with 2.40 ERA. He is coming off a shutout of Blue Jays and has 5 quality starts out of 8. He does give a bit more on the road, but May has brought 2 straight wins making it 4 wins out of last 5 Indians have finished with a win. Aaron Harrang 2-5 with 3.32 ERA tough luck pitcher with 7 quality starts out of 9. He eats innings and holds very good home WHIP of 1.029. Totals reflect his outing with little support O/U 2-7, at home O/U 1-4. With two good pitchers matching up we will have a generous strike zone with Tom Hallion behind the plate O/U 3-7. This match up comes on Indians Away O/U 5-11 and Reds Home O/U 7-11-2. This will be the first 3 units wager for this season.

UNDER 8.5 at -106 for 3 units(W)

This one is in the bank.
1-0 +3.00 units

Friday, May 16, 2008

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 33-26-1 +13.21 units

No post for yesterday. Games are getting choppy, but I like the chaos feel to the match ups and mix in some inter-league for some sure fire bangs. Baseball logic says games between unfamiliar teams should have pitching advantage and games played on NL field will eliminate the DH.

Atlanta Braves are sending Jair Jurrjens, RHP 4-3 with 3.10 ERA, pitching much better of late last 5 out of 6 has been quality and he is 3-0 at home 1.96 ERA 1.20 WHIP. That WHIP has fallen to 0.89 in last 3 games and Under is strong at O/U 1-7 stringing 7 in a row.
Oakland Athletics counter with Dana Eveland, LHP 3-3 with 3.23 ERA, on the road 1-3 with 4.88 ERA 1.25 WHIP, who looks weaker on paper, but has given A's 5-3 team record with 50% quality starts coming in with 2 quality starts in a row. Under is perfect at O/U 0-7.
Both Pitchers will be working with weaker side of the bat. Atlanta hitting .256 against LHP last 10 vs Oakland hitting .220 against RHP last 10.
Both teams trending UNDER Atlanta O/U 1-8-1 and Oakland O/U 2-7-1.

UNDER 8.5 at -112 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

MLB Wednesday

1-1 last selection. YTD 33-25-1 +14.21 units

No play Tuesday and back with the skinny on Wednesday. If your not up to date with best bet in Baseball it's the Florida Marlins. They're at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati Ohio taking on Bronson Arroyo and the Reds. Outside of Volquez pitching phenomenal ball at home, he pitched yesterday beating Hendrickson, Reds are not considered big threat and Arroyo at home is not scary at all. Ricky Nolasco getting the ball in a nice underdog spot poised to beat the Reds on the road.

FLA +122 for 1 unit(L)

Had the mark of a great come back, but it was not to be.
0-1 -1.00 unit

Monday, May 12, 2008

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection. YTD 32-24-1 +13.81 units.

Looking at PPD games from Sunday. Toronto at Cleveland is a Double Header today with early game slated for AJ Burnett for the Blue Jays and Carmona for the Indians. Burnett is 3-3 with 5.19 ERA 1.62 WHIP when he takes the start Toronto is 4-4, but better away than at home with 2-1 with 3.04 ERA 1.28 WHIP. Fausto Carmona is 3-1 with 2.95 ERA 1.79 WHIP at home he is 2-1 with 2.28 ERA 1.61 WHIP. Cleveland exploded for 12 runs on Saturday while giving up 0 and Friday 6 runs while giving 1 against the Blue Jays. So Jays have been out scored 18-1 in this series so far including a knockout of Toronto Ace Halladay. Is there any reason to go against the Indians on this game? Yes, Carmona is having control issues, outside Detroit outing 4/17 he's walked minimum 4, and not factoring into decision. AJ does not have good history with Cleveland, but I think he comes in pretty strong after that 14K outing.

TORONTO +134 for 1 unit(L)

Taking Minnesota at home with Livan Hernandez taking the mound. These pesky Twins are not so easy to put away even for Boston Red Sox.

TWINS +140 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.40 units

Sunday, May 11, 2008

MLB Mother's Day

1-0 last selection. YTD 31-23-1 +12.52 units.
Hope to bring you the Mother Load tonight.

Already won Rays, Rays&Angels Over 9.5, A's&Rangers Over 8 and will conclude my evening on this play.
Boston Red Sox (Wake) at Minnesota Twins (Black)
Backing the Under in this match up. Both pitchers come in trending Under and match up dictates Under. Top it off with Under ump behind the plate. Twins also play Red Sox pretty tight and close moneyline credits Twins at Home.

BOS/MIN UNDER 9 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
TWINS +118 for 2 units(W)

The day was much than published.
1-1 +1.29 units

Saturday, May 10, 2008

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection and rolling the last several days. YTD 30-23-1 +11.52 units

Baltimore O at Kansas City Royals. O Birds getting a little better in KC as they have been doing to the Royals for awhile. It's tough to sweep especially on the road and Tomko showing flashes of big league stuff, but it's the Royals regressing when they need to tough up. That's what I think will happen and Orioles take this going away.

BALTIMORE +100 for 1 unit(W)

Not exactly a sweep yet there's another game for Mother's day.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Friday, May 09, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 29-23-1 +10.38 units

Some would say runs produced by SF Giants is mostly by luck and G-Men themselves are their own worst enemy. They return to the Bay going 1-5 on this dismal road trip only to face NL East powerhouse Phillies practically waiting in the West. Phillies have split AZ series and won SFG series before that at home now Cole Hamels gets the ball. Giants will counter with Patric Misch, LHP with limited big league play. He does come with Lefty specialist credentials, but how far will he go and how much does the Giants have left after that road trip? I'd say not many would be surprised if Giants gets shut down or if Misch gets chased, but this is second look of Cole @PHL 5/04 and Patric @PHL 5/02, both won by Phillies both Over. For this game Phillies are a very expensive Road favorites and 1 run losses have become G-Men signature making the Phils Runline unattractive. What does look intriguing is the low Total 7.5 hung on this game and strange things have happened when the wind is blowing. I'm still watching this, but anticipated Under looks premature. Gust is picking up toward center and left field swirling in the outfield.

PHL/SFG OVER 7.5 at +114 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.14 units

Thursday, May 08, 2008

MLB Thursday

2-0 last selection. YTD 28-23-1 +8.38 units

Baltimore O (Daniel Cabrera) at Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar)
O Birds coming limping into KC losers 5 out of last 5 where the Royals beat the AL West contender Angels in last game 9-4 salvaging 1 out of 3 series which was encouraging given they had taken the Cleveland series on the road with one game PPD, but let's face it this game is not going to get much interest. Gauging wagering public's interest it gets around 1279 compared to PHL/ARZ getting 1664. Does it mean anything? It means the game flys under the radar and line movement is limited staying close to odds makers projected divide. Players are not trusting Baltimore on the road even with edge on head to head match ups and Luke Hochevar is bit of an unknown rookie reliever inserted into the rotation top it off there is 30% chance of thunder storm. All good reasons to move on to other games, but if the game plays out Hockevar has given KC more than what they asked for stringing two quality wins and if he regresses the pen is stocked. Daniel Cabrera coming off a loss and ND before that, but still pitching strong with 5 straight quality start. These two teams both come in O/U 3-7 and that Under stands to improve.

BAL/KCR UNDER 8.5 at -113 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 26-23-1 +6.20 units

I like more games than what I'd like to play. It's a all day Baseball making hard to lay off, but the way to go is do the home work early make the plays and go about your other business, if you have other business, forget about the games or too many games. I'm going to cut out early and go to the Dodgers game.

The game in Los Angeles is a pretty good match up. Penny looks to sweep NYM and by-the-book says to play the no sweep with visiting Mets. Too bad Dodgers haven't been following the script. They haven't won 9 out of last 10 by losing when they were supposed to they've done just the opposite and I wouldn't go against them. I will ride the bats today and though it's a cool day with clouds, not much wind, kind of day when pitchers thrive, Penny is taking the mound and Dodgers always bring their bat when Big Bad Brad gets the ball.

Dodgers failed to bring their bats, but no matter.
METS/DODGERS OVER 8.5 +115 for 1 unit(W)

Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees is a match up of stingy arms in American League plain and simple. This Total is low as it can go in AL in May, but worth the risk with these two pitchers taking the mound.

INDIANS/YANKEES UNDER 8 +103 for 1 unit(W)

Thanks I needed that.
2-0 +2.18 units

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 26-22-1 +7.20 units

Phillies (Adam Eaton) at Arizona (Randy Johnson).

Big Unit is no longer all that though still a pitcher who knows the game and give you innings. If he wasn't starting for the hot Diamondbacks I don't think he'd command this price. Even with the hot club behind him Phillies have come to swing their bats and they hold value with Eaton doing his job.

Take Phillies +140 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Monday, May 05, 2008

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection. YTD 26-20-1 +10.20 units. Missed Sunday's games.

Texas Rangers are playing pretty good ball of late and they will be in Seattle matching up their veteran Ace Kevin Milwood against veteran Washburn. I backed Washburn on the road and he burned me not going that route again. Jarrod is still a fade, he has thrown too many pitches. Rangers taking 4 out of last 5 starting 4/30 witH KC at home taking that series and taking the Oakland series after that in Oakland. Milwood comes in working 44.1 innings 2-2 record with 3.85 ERA didn't look that hot in 4/30 KC win giving up 5 runs on 7 hits, no decision before that for 4/25, 4/20 and 4/15. Opposition scoring ran high with Over hitting 4 in a row. Still that Over is no play tonight Kevin Milwood giving up 5 earned runs two straight start is not the norm and if you recall the early season match up Milwood gave Seattle no earned runs eating up 6 innings on 91 pitches with 4 hits and 2 unearned runs losing that one to Erik Bedard. Tonight the opposition is Washburn 1-4 record 4.86 ERA with 33.1 innings last outing at Cleveland chased in 4.1 innings averaged 23.5 pitches per inning finishing with 102 pitches thrown. He or Mariers has not won since 4/09 @Tampa and maybe due for a quality outing at home, but rather go with the momentum team and fade the loser of 5 in a row, with 4 losing by more than 1.5 runs.

TEXAS RANGERS +116 for 2 units(L)

if this bet is available to you.
TEXAS RANGERS ALTERNATE RUNLINE -1.5 at +181 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -3.00 units

Saturday, May 03, 2008

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 25-19 +9.20 units

Got a two in one selection today. Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels. Angels did not go away quietly yesterday as they were threatening with baserunners at the bottom of 9th, but could not cash. Baltimore is a surprise out of the East and if they can transform their winning ways on the road they'll be giving some big payroll teams run for their money. This match up, though Angels seem to have the upper hand on paper, Angels will have to fight hard to keep this even. For some strange reason Angels have out performed themselves on the road and balancing 50% at home. So we have two teams under performing in this situation with pretty good pitching, that's a Under for me. The Side is Baltimore with Cabrera, his stuff is looking electric and I like Garland too, but 2008 model Daniel Cabrera is what I will take.

BALTIMORE +120 for 1 unit(L)
BAL/ANA UNDER 9.5 at +104 for 2 units(W)

Missed the starter, but main course was right on.
1-1 +1.00 unit

Friday, May 02, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 25-18-1 +10.50 units

Tampa at Boston.
A.J. Burnett shuts down the Red Sox 3 hits no runs into the 8th inning and take the game 3-0 at Fenway. 2 previous games were tight, but Sox were winners so the pressure is not apparent to the fact offense has produced only 4 runs in last 45 innins starting 4/26 @TB. Still winners 8 of last 11 home games you have to feel this shutout leads to production against TB in this turn around revenge game at Fenway against Jackson. Edwin Jackson was good in 4/26 match up going 7 innings 5 hits 1 run throwing 108 pitches 62 for strikes, but Clay Buchholtz was better going 8 innings 3 hits only a mistake thrown to Aki was 2 run HR ending in a loss. Since that match Boston offense have been quiet while Rays continued to roll. So is Tampa money with Jackson for the second round? At Fenway? I can't go against Red Sox comng off zero scoring, but I will back runline +1.5 and look for Jackson & TB boys to keep it tight. Jackson 4 out of 5 match up against Boston are 1 run games.

TAMPA Runline +1,5 -120 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.20 units

Thursday, May 01, 2008

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 24-18-1 +9.43 units

It's early Thursday games have started. Backing Tigers on the road against Yanks at home. Yankees will pitch Kennedy and Tigers will counter with Robertson. May not be much of a pitching match up on paper, but you know Detroit will put the better product on the field.

TIGERS +106(W)

1-0 +1.06 units