Saturday, June 28, 2008

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-36-2 +29.88 units

Rockies struggle continue and losses are mounting at 5 straight. Not one of those loss have been less than 1.5 meaning Run Line would of taken it on the chin for 5 straight too. Jimenez got rocked for 15 hits and Rox went on to lose decisively 7-1 at Detroit. Is there anything in their course of demise give this team a small shinning light? Jeff Francis is a shadow of last year's pitcher, 6 quality starts out of 16, did not last 5 innings last start and gave up 2 long balls. Jeff is only averaging 25% wins away so any consideration on bunch of guys from Denver maybe money out the window. Before casting the stone let's look at the Tigers. Detroit 23-17 winning record at home is still minus on money wagered with the price they command. They win against Lefties 14-5, but 29-23 as favorite is still red in the money. OK, I'm looking at value to probability and in general principle it's only a tool that tells me Tigers are not winning enough to cover the juice....Wait, That's a funny statement considering Rockies have bled red across every category I track. Many times in this game reasonable logic is just a self reassurance of what's already a "given" in your mind, Verlander is the biggest money loser in Tigers rotation equal to Jeff with 25% quality starts. Fading the 75% or higher Detroit concensus and look for Rox to steal one in a stunner in Detroit.

COLORADO ROCKIES +167 for 1 unit(L)

Baltimore O's at Washington Nationals
Nats have won 2 in a row and they will hand the ball to John Lannan, 4-8, but pitching quality starts. What a shame it's not showing on his record. It's alright combined with O's Garrett Olson who can use a good outing and he's pretty good keeping the game Under.

BAL/WAS UNDER 8.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

Thursday, June 26, 2008

MLB Friday

Pushed last selection. YTD 53-35-2 +31.02 units

Angels at Dodgers Freeway series are here. First game I'm taking the Angels with Joe Saunders on the mound taking on Chan Ho Park and the Dodgers at the Ravine. Chan Ho has shown flashes of dazzling pitches I'm not sold on that and Dodgers are not clicking right now. It's the home field disadvantage when road tested Angels give the ball to Saunders and we should take the first game away.

ANGELS -114 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.14 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-35-1 +31.02 units

All games have started except for this one.
Texas at Houston in battle of Texas. I know the score is supposed to be low or below 9. That's on the high side Wandy's at home and Milwood is pitching good, but keep in mind the shortest left field next to Fenway and low fence to the right, designed for HR robbing catches in mind, not to forget the hill in center field with a pole in play. Definitely made for outfielders to work.
Let's tag this one Over the number it'll be unexpected.

TEX/HOU OVER 9 at +110 for 1 unit(Push)

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

MLB Wednesday

0-2 yesterday both late inning collapse, but D Backs stuck it to me blowing 4 runs in bottom of 8th. Everybody gets moosed sometime.
YTD 53-34-1 +32.14 units

Like Rox playing in Kansas City. Them Royals are ripping the inter league, but got to consider the two arms on the mound. Aaron Cook is the force behind Rockies today and he is a force to be reckoned with 9-4 and Rox are 11-5 when he goes to work. Cook has been by far the biggest Rockies money maker and 11 quality starts out of 16, 6 out of 9 road. Rox are 6-3.
Royals are hot no doubt and they are feasting on NL teams 11-3 winning 9-1 last 10 games, but Luke Hochevar is the weak link he is the one loss out of last 10 and limited quality starts, but has improved recently with 2 quality starts back to back before going 4 innings. The way I measure KC made some mini run, this one best by far, but they are over achieving at this point and they are still under .500 at home. Rockies may not be any better, but June has been productive taking LA series, Milwaukee series, Giants series, White Sox series and Indians series before blowing Mets series. Now they are going to drop KC series I'm taking Rox to salvage one game.

ROCKIES -112 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.12 units

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 53-32-1 +34.14 units

Selection #1
When I look at NL East standing and see Phillies at top all I could recall in recent games was the 20 runs scored against poor Cards at St Louis on 6/13. How the tide turns, since than the offensive powerhouse Phillies have gone 1-7. Where the offensive power? I'm not going to ponder that question, but I do know Jamie Moyer has been pitching in mid season form, 5 quality out of 7 road starts 4-1 record with Phillies going 6-1, and he is no stranger to AL West. Oakland will counter with Joe Blanton the moneyline pit, 3-10 and A's are 4-12 when Joe in on the hill, taking the ball. He's got 5 quality start out of 10 home games and win less in June, but that last start in Zona was a rarity. He'll most likely bounce back at home and eat up innings as he always have with 2 N/D out of all starts and 10 games with 2 runs or less 6 games are 1 run. What I don't like with Joe is that he has allowed HR's in 7 consecutive games and just an improvement over his last start may not do the trick.


Selection #2
Playing Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox. Snakes slither under a rock and oh how they have come down to earth. Everyone said they can't stay hot so now there's "I told you" guys all over the place. Back under the radar and stock is looking mighty fat, but "it's Boston at home" you say. They beat them yesterday in the battle of pitchers duel and the Snakes rather do it again with their arm than with their bats. Doug Davis is returning to form and last two starts were pretty good sign. He's had his clunkers on the road, but he's lacked innings under his belt. This will be interesting with Masterson having quality starts and on the money at home, but since he last pitched in Philadelphia 6/18 last day of the road trip Red Sox have dropped 3 out of 4 back in Fenway. Strike out count has been high since coming home, but so are the hits given up and now we come full circle back to Masterson. Red Sox highly expected to stop the skid today, but not if Davis and company can help it.

With the win within grasp.... WTF
0-2 -2.00 units

Monday, June 23, 2008

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 52-32-1 +33.14 units

Backing Big Ben on the road against one of the best home team Atlanta Braves. They've been carrying that label for awhile now, 27-12, but look beyond their recent road trip and you'll see that Phillies swept them before their trip with losing streak running through Chicago series for 6 consecutive losses. Jo Jo stopped the skid and the Braves went 4-3 the rest of the way before taking the Seattle series back at home. On this sampling losing streak started at home and ended on the road. What am I getting at? Maybe the home advantage road disadvantage is over blown here with Jo-Jo Reyes back at Turner. He's only 16.7% quality starts at home, although Braves have 4-2 record when he starts and he has thrown 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts, his recorded home win is way back in 5/18. Visiting Brew crew winning 7 out of last 10 has a head of steam with Ben Sheets perfect on the road and team record of 7-2, but again this team is labeled as losers on the road. Let's buck the over announced trend and go will Brewers at Turner.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -114 for 1 unit(W)

SOP *standard operating procedure.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Sunday, June 22, 2008

MLB Sunday

2-1 last selection. YTD 52-31-1 +34.19 units

Going with a Over looking game that maybe too high to reach. The game is Baltimore at Milwaukee Brewers. I do not doubt the strength of Brewers home game and Garret Olson may not be what you consider a quality pitcher, but I have to think the upside of Olson is greater in this game. Manny Parra is pitching a great game of late and has shined at home. Also combined with O's away O/U 17-22 and Brews 15-21-1 home Unders. Brew crew hitting the weak side .249 at home dropping to .229 against lefties. We should also get a good strike zone with Edward Montague calling strikes and balls. The risk is late inning scoring with both pens being a liability. Even so the ceiling is high today.

BAL/MIL UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Getting too fine, but if I had to do it over I'd go Under. The problem today was playing the wrong selection.

0-1 -1.05 units

Friday, June 20, 2008

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 50-30-1 +33.19 units

Pirates may have squeezed one past the sinking Blue Jays with Cito back on the helm, but don't be sold on Pirates yet. So they are formidable at home 22-15 with pretty good offensive numbers. Paul Maholm definitely better at home has a record of 3-1 and team record of 6-2. You'll also see Bucks have won 4 of his last 5 starts, have I sold you on Pittsburgh yet?
Blue Jays have been laying eggs on the road to the tune of 17-23. These inter league games have yielded 1 win out of last 7, and that win was way back in 6/13. It's also the second goose egg in 4 days away from Roger Center. So what do you think?
Backing Jesse Litsch even with his 2 losses out of 3, all three were team losses, as this game looks due for the Jays? I think they'll score some runs and Bucks will score some runs sending this match up Over the Total of 8 at PNC, that's the play.

TOR/PIT OVER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Joe Saunders and the Halos to stick another to Bret Myers and the Phillies. Just rolling with the AL West powerhouse road warriors playing in their element. Not only that betting plus money.

Angels +110 for 1 unit(W)

Pedros looking interesting as a underdog. Colorado at home with Jimenez does not threaten. Taking Mets at Coors.

Mets +103 for 1 unit(L)

Not bad, but I guess I pushed with 3 selections. Besides Mets with Pedro was very un-clutch like play.
2-1 +1.00 unit

Thursday, June 19, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection fading the sliding Cards at home. YTD 49-30-1 +32.19 units

Nailing another yesterday our game is running 4-1 last 5, 8-2 last 10. It's all good and weekend will be upon us to sink your teeth into some base running, fists pumping, knee buckling great game of ours.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim playing the inter league at Philadelphia Phillies. Ervin Santana with a fantastic 8-3 record, but Angels have failed him losing 3 of his N/D games making the team record 8-6 when he takes the hill. He is also showing little cracks with his last outing not getting past the 6th inning. Opposing Adam Eaton has been quality with not much to show for. His 2-4 record is misleading considering his ability to stay consistent and pitch deep. Phillies are 7-7 when he takes the mound and that number tells me he is better than his record, but team is not supporting. Which brings me to taking the Under at this so called "hitter friendly" Citizens Bank park with Eaton being a Under machine, 12-1 Under 6-0 at home. Santana is poised to improve and give a quality performance, but with the cracks showing taking the Angels may not produce the end result. I do like the Total to fall below and Angels don't hit well after a day of rest.

LAA/PHL UNDER 9.5 at -115 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection, Dodgers stopping their skid. YTD 48-30-1 +31.19 units

Late posting alert.
Bring you a inter league action today with KC at St Louis. Off the top, KC rolling through Inter league at 6-2. They are looking to sweep the Cards on this afternoon match up. Zack Greinke is pitching much better, he's 10 quality out of 14 starts, 5 out of 5 quality at home & 5 out 9 on the road. The team has dropped his last 3, Zack taking the loss on 2 of them, but still had the poise of high level pitcher when I saw his last game. Brad Thompson I saw in Houston and don't have a big impression from him except for the fact he came in against the slumping Astros team and recorded N/D. He is a ground ball pitcher, which I like, but getting depth might be a issue.
Yes, it really tough to sweep away in the Majors, but it does happen and Cards are riddled with missing players.

KCR -106 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah baby!
1-0 +1.00 unit

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 47-30-1 +30.12 units

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds.
Tonight's match up will feature two good young arms, Chad Billingsly and Johnny Cueto, both right handed pitchers making themselves known. Johnny Cueto with 79 innings under his belt has 50% quality starts, 62.5 at home and 3 wins out of last 4 starts. There is a pitch count issue along with long balls he's given up in last 3 starts.
Chad has thrown 77 innings, 40% quality starts, little better on the road at 50%, but not all is his doing with lacking run support. Dodgers are sliding and they're 13-23 away, 3-7 in last 10 games where as Reds are golden at home 21-14. So my thoughts on this game? Dodgers even with their consecutive losses and bad road record have the better product on the filed and Reds being offense oriented team which has cooled off has too many holes in their defense. Reds does hold the big bat advantage, but that's a risk I will have to take.

DODGERS +107 for 1 unit(W)

Didn't lose a beat.
1-0 +1.07 units

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

MLB Wednesday

1-0 last night. YTD 46-30-1 +29.12 units

Sitting in a hotel room here in Houston looking forward to Wednesday matinee at Minute Maid park. Stinking hot and humid not too pleasant June in Texas some rain would be nice. At least I'm not here on my dollar and I will make a best of this trip.

Off the top, I think Brew crew takes the series away, Sheets coming off a mile high win will have his curve back in his arsenal. Brian Moehler pitched his best game this season and he may revert to a 5 inning pitcher. Brew Crew rising and Astros slipping.

MIL -128 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

MLB Tuesday

1-1 last selection. YTD 45-30-1 +28.12

It has been 10 days since my last confession. There's nothing wrong with my game. I've had my share of losses, but winners out number them. I do this religiously and have been doing it for long long time, but I must admit I'm no writer. I'm considering going to video and maybe I could have real time conversation with some you guys out there. Just thinking out loud, but something I would really like to do.

Los Angeles Dodgers are in San Diego playing game 2 of the series winning the 1st and snapping the Padres 5 game win streak. That win streak is decieving with 4 of those games being a 2-1 low scoring 1 run win. That's not comforting, while Randy Wolfe's coming off a good game against the Mets, he has been pitching quality at home. The other side, Billingsly's coming off a shaky start and he is likely to improve. I'd say from the way this is shaping up in this cavernous PetCo park the game stays Under the Total. Dodgers on the road is less threatening and Padres have offensive issues. Books opened with U7 bias with late Over pressure bring the price back close to even. I'll take the call on Books being correct.

LAD/PAD UNDER 7 at 110 for 1 unit(W)

Another day at the office.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Sunday, June 01, 2008

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 44-29-1 +28.12 units

If you waited around for Sunday games I apologize there was no insight on my part to publish anything in time.

Let's move on to Monday. Dodgers having played a dismal road trip now returns to Los Angeles. You know that New York to Los Angeles flight must of felt long after dropping the 2 run lead and end up losing 2-3 on Saturday and getting spanked on Sunday late card finishing the trip 1-6.
Derek Lowe will take the mound to right the ship and he has been pitching well, much better than his Rockies opponent Greg Reynolds 0-2, but I suspect a lack of Dodgers punch to keep Rox in striking range. Looking for good ground ball numbers from Lowe he is pitching 1.09 WHIP at home. Reynolds 7.94 ERA away and last 3 starts 5.09 ERA is crap, but he imploded in his last start 5/28 @PHL giving up 6 runs and likely to improve facing time lagged Dodgers.

ROCKIES/DODGERS UNDER 8 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

New York Mets complete a very nice home stand and now they are in the West taking on the fighting SF Giants. Jonathan Sanchez getting the start has been tough as of late stringing 3 quality starts not to forget Giants have winning record of 8-3 with Sanchez starting. But I don't like his high pitch count, Mets hitting lefties better and he's a fly ball pitcher with wind picking up at the Bay. Oliver Perez starting for NY simply goes Over, Giants also hitting lefties better.

METS/GIANTS OVER 8.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
FYI : This Total has moved to 8U -106

1-1 +0.00 units