Thursday, July 31, 2008

MLB Thursday

1-1 last selection will a small gain. YTD 61-47-2 +32.27 units

AL West marred in mediocrity does not compare to the divisions of East or Central, but there is a team dangerously balanced with pitching, defense, speed and playing opportunistic baseball.

New York Yankees at home in 2nd half is a team to behold. Starting pitchers that drive this team are Joba Chamberlain and veteran Andy Pettitte. Joba did his part in yesterday's win against Baltimore and Andy will get the ball tonight. Andy currently pitching in mid season form, 5 quality starts out of last 7 lowering his already good WHIP from 1.22 to 1.14. But I still like Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I'm not counting on Jon Garland to shut down the Yankees line up at home, but to keep thee Halos in striking distance. Garland better on the road 6-2 with 5 quality starts out of 9. Angels pen locks it down on the road with 3.18 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Yankees also stumbled against the O's while Angels roll through the East. True, Yanks can heat up at home in a New York minute, but give me the road warriors from the West beating teams their not suppose to.

LAA +162 for 1 unit(W)

The mighty Angels!
1-0 +1.62 units

Monday, July 28, 2008

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. 60-46-2 +32.14 units

Taking the Total at Tampa Rays at Toronto Jays with two good arms going at it. These two teams have matched up Under and recently trending Under. The number is a very low 7.5 with money moving Over.

RAYS/JAYS UNDER 7.5 at +113 for 1 unit(W)

Taking Side at White Sox at Twins. Minny is tough at home no doubt and they can certainly turn it on at Metro Dome, but White Sox taking out Detroit on the road, hitting well and one of their top pitcher taking the ball.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +109 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 +0.13 units

Sunday, July 27, 2008

MLB Sunday Night

0-1 last selection. YTD 60-45-2 +33.14 units

Sidney Ponson 6-1 is a risky proposition. He looks and is hittable, but NY just takes it out of the equation. Books have heavily tipped to Bostons way with best money & quality pitcher Jon Lester 8-3, 4-1 at home with dropping ERA and WHIP in July. Boston wins 8-2 when Lester in on his job. If there was a argument to make Jon is coming off a no run game which indicates quality dip and he is facing a hot hitting team. I would not be surprised if Ponson gets hit by 36-13 at home Red Sox, but upside on Yankees is very good.

NYY +172 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Thursday, July 24, 2008

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 60-44-2 +35.24 units

Jair Jurrjens is a gamer. Coming off a tough start with long rest losing against Washington it was just not a good day for the Braves. Yes he logged 2 losses this month at home, other to Phillies giving up rare 3 homers, but you better know Jurrjens has a live arm. Will be get back to his June form? That's a high expectation, but I think he'll hold his own.

Kyle Kendricks coming off a bad loss in Miami on a day when his sinker had no bite. He gave up 3 HR's for the 1st time in his young career and gave up 7 RBI's on 10 hits. Another pitcher showing rust from the long rest? Kyle 5-2 record with 14-6 team record has been money all season.

Jair Jurrjens 6 quality starts out of 9 road games 3.16 ERA & 1.21 WHIP. Pitching O/U 2-7 away, 1-5 as Underdog.
Kyle Kendricks 5 quality starts out of 9 home games 4.69 ERA & 1.33 WHIP. Pitching O/U 13-7 overall, but 72% Over away vs 55% over at home
Both pitchers back on normal schedule look for them to improve in quality.

Philies have been killing the Braves 8-1 this season.
Only 2 out of 9 games were decided by 1 run.
O/U 3-6 @PHL 1-2 @ATL 2-4

Backig the Under with Total at 9.5 as Books come out all over the place. A high total in NL game

ATL/PHL UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)

All I can say is WTF. Steaked with 8.5 run cushion in the 9th and lose this shit.
0-1 -2.10 units

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. That's why you don't go against the Sharps. YTD 63-44-2 +33.10 units

What do I like off the top. Dodgers and Rocks are looking Over, but I looked at that 10.5 Total and figured the odds maker are in sink. Kuroda is average pitcher on the road and Rusch I don't trust today. He can revert to the pitcher that got shelled by Cubs and couldn't hold off the Marlins in relief. But here is the argument for Under as Dodgers saved their pitching because of that shelling they got yesterday. Dodgers pitching level will be much better than shown yesterday and even with the LA offense motoring it's not going to help that Over.

LAD/COL UNDER 10.5 at +103 for 1 unit(W)

Washington at Giants play at the Bay. They won't get much attention, but worth a risk on the Over 8.5 with money going Under. The number is bit high for games at AT&T since Giants have returned from their road trip 7/13 Total has ranged 7.5~8 and all have gone Over. There is a light rain which will slow the flight of fly balls, but still reachable. I don't foresee deep work by both starters and Nationals showing excellent OPS since the start of this road trip. Looking for small ball to exceed the number.

WAS/SFG OVER 8.5 at +111 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.14 units

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 63-43-2 +34.19 units

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins. Two young arms will go at it with Morton against the import Vandenhurk and I will admit I'm Morton bias having watched him against the Pads. Rick Vandenhurk for the Fish I do not have much opinion except he looked very hittable in the past, but that doesn't mean much today. Fish have the home advantage, prefers hitting righties, plays winning ball against division opponents and Braves are not the same team away from Atlanta.
What I've said is true Marlins should be a very good home dog, but I'm suspecting a change in Braves that almost lead me to pass on this game. Most sharps are following the winning formula with Florida at home I'll go the other way.

ATLANTA -109 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.09 units

Sunday, July 20, 2008

MLB Sunday

1-0 last selection. YTD 63-42-2 +35.19 units

Counting down to the last game of the day.
Boston at Anaheim Angels. Knuckler Wakefield against Jon Garland. You know the price on Angels have been falling and that kind of stuff catches my eyes. I normally like to play the favs with dropping price, but I'm going with Boston today. Wakefield has been pitching deep and they stranded 12 base runners yesterday unable to hold the lead. Sox has hit Garland well and inconsistent as Boston maybe they are a tough bunch to sweep even on the road.

BOSTON +107 for 1 unit(L)

Had a bad feeling after taking the lead. Almost took Angels in-Game at +212, but failed to pull the trigger.

0-1 -1.00 unit

Friday, July 18, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 to start after the All Star break. YTD 62-42-2 +34.19 units

Going to National League game where our focus will be Milwaukee Brewers at San Fransisco Giants, Matt Cain pitching well lately and that has soaked into the wagering crowd. Line has reversed as the consensus majority take the Brewers on the road with their new weapon at hand.
Brew weaker away, 21-26, but not as bad as 17-28 home for G-Men. The thing about these reverse line movement originally start with Home team value play and I think this one is getting off loaded close to game time. It never hit that magical mark of 75%+ public on Milwaukee.

MILWAUKEE -119 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Thursday, July 17, 2008

MLB Thursday

0-2 last selection. YTD 61-42-2 +33.19 units

This is one of those games where the line opened with even match up, a slight Tigers favor as visitors, but players have leaned on Detroit only to see the line move to Baltimore before returning to Detroit. The pitching match up will see the "Gambler" coming in at 6-6 completing 114.2 innings 11 quality starts out of 19, 6 of them at home and 5 away, the difference being Tigers at home 6-3 and away 3-7. Still Rogers should get good deal of backers as he has been eating innings and Baltimore is on the slide. Garrett Olson 6-4 has only 4 quality starts out of 14, but has no defeat at home 3-0 with O's winning 4-2. He does have the momentum against him with 1 quality start out of last 7 with WHIP climbing to .176 Although Orioles are hitting 24 runs in last 3 games they have also gave 20 runs. Olson to keep dodging bullets is unlikely at best. Tigers to improve in Baltimore.

DETROIT -103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Sunday, July 13, 2008

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 61-40-2 +36.23 units

Going on the same game as last night. Atlanta at San Diego
Campillo against Wolf in the rubber match and watching these two teams go head to head I just can't help thinking "All these pitchers in all these games are outstanding", but it's not all pitching it's the lack of offense making the pitchers look better. It's a perfect baseball day in San Diego or shall I say Pitching day at PetCo Park. We might even get some shadows in the batter box and behind the home plate Brian Knight O/U 5-14 calling strikes and balls.
Campillo comes in O/U 2-7 and Wolf 4-14. Taking the low Under.

ATL/SDP UNDER 7.5 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

Colorado at New York Mets
Heading into Flushing where Mets are mighty and on a roll. No doubt New York is the hottest team right now and Rockies will need to throw the kitchen sink to give these boys a run for their money. Redman at 2-4 is 50% Rox are 3-6 at 50% on the road and games are going Over 7-2, 3-0 away. Michael Pelfrey is pitching well and has been a winner, but it has not equaled Under as he is getting tons of run support. He's also coming off 3 hit no run game which is about good as it gets and that usually reverses a bit in this spot.

COL/NYM OVER 9 at +113 for 2 units(L)

0-2 -3.04 units

Saturday, July 12, 2008

MLB Saturday

0-1 yesterday. YTD 61-39-2 +37.31 units

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres.
Bravos send young Charlie Morton in this spot to work around 6 innings or so with minimum damage and he can do that. On the other side is the old veteran crafty Maddux he's been hit looking at the last 3 games, but at home he has been quality. Coming off at strong home performance against Marlins, although a loss, Greg and the Pads look to take 2 from Braves today. Braves woeful on the road with bats not finding timely hits are 3-7 in last 10 games.

SAN DIEGO -108 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.08 units

Friday, July 11, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday going into the weekend. YTD 61-38-2 +38.31 units

St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates. This will feature Kyle Lohse for the red birds pitching a fine season and Zack Duke alternating wins and losses at 50% 9-9 team record. Zack coming off a bad start is likely to bounce back here at home where his quality starts are 6 out of 9 with Bucs edging 5-4. A small edge as that maybe Cards bats have gone quiet and much is expected from Lohse today, but if there's a misleading number it's his road performance to team win ratio.
His quality start is lacking on the road with 3 out of 8, but team has taken 5-3. Such will not be the case today at PNC if Lohse can not carry the load. He does come in with momentum 5-1 June and Cards are tough against division opponents, but let's take the Bucs to show up today.

PITTSBURGH +113 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Thursday, July 10, 2008

MLB Thursday

1-0 yesterday. YTD 60-38-2 +37.31 units

Baltimore O Birds at Rogers Center in Toronto. These two teams may not matter much in what's shaping up to be the race for AL East, but look for a good match up. Today's arms are Jeremy Guthrie looking for a third straight win overall and a second straight defeat of the Blue Jays against Journeyman southpaw John Parrish starting against his former team for the first time. Can't say how Parrish will hold up tonight, but Jays bats sure look live. Jeremy Guthrie pitches quality game, but too many holes on the road for Baltimore to support. Blue Jays are 2008 disappointment, but there are too many talents to slide and fade away. Feeling some boost from Toronto look for Jays to make their stand taking this one in decisive fashion.

TORONTO -111 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

MLB Wednesday

1-0 yesterday even with the rain delay. YTD 59-38-2 +36.31 units

Going with my home team Dodgers at the Ravine. Yeah, Braves has L.A.'s number for awhile, but Dodgers have been taking series and Atlanta has been sliding. Will the tide change with Hudson on the mound? I'll say, No, L.A. take this to take the Home Atlanta series and Lowe to get the win.

DODGERS -103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 58-38-2 +34.98 units

Pittsburgh Pirates don't conjure image of high powering offense, but that what they are this season and defense being crap the Bucs have come up big as the premiere Over team of 2008. Current O/U records 53-30-5 averaging 10.5 runs per game. Getting the ball will be Ian Snell returning from D/L without any minor league tune up he'll be on a close watch. On the flip side Brandon Backe very hard to read, but I'd say he'll improve from his last outing maybe record a quality start or close to it. All in all this game on the surface has the look of bats lighting up the scoreboard, but the Bucs protect their home turf better, pitchers pitch better and Backe is UNDER machine. The selection I'm getting to is fading the obvious Over as the number has climbed from 9.5 to 10 and I don't think it'll reach 10 so taking the risk at 9.5 UNDER.

HOU/PIT UNDER 9.5 at +133 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, July 07, 2008

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 57-38-2 +33.69 units

What's happening Players? Hope everyone is coming off a winning weekend.
Today the game is New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies. Pedro, not as threatening, will enter a tough division rivalry against always dangerous Phillies. Mets maybe looking to take this series on the road, but 2 out of 3 was very close. Eaton is also good at home with 4 out of 4 quality starts. So what's not to like the home team today? Since the Atlanta series Phillies offensive production is falling from 8 - 7 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 2, leading to today OPS is down .300 and although Pedro may look hittable the right bat advantage goes to the Mets. Pedro stock is down, but value rates much better than Adam Eaton. Look to sneak this one by the streaky Phillies.

METS +129 for 1 unit(W)

Told ya we sneak this by, lol.
1-0 +1.29 units

Saturday, July 05, 2008

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 56-38-2 +32.44 units

Taking Doc Halladay on the road in Anahiem Big A. Struggling Jays are facing Big John Lackey formidable Ace of the Angels. Lackey has been consistently quality in every start, undefeated in June and he is the Ace in every way, but Doc coming off a 9 inning performance is commanding in the West where as Lackey giving up 0 runs may give a little in this spot.

BLUE JAYS +125 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.25 units

Friday, July 04, 2008

MLB Happy 4th of July

1-0 last selection and Happy July 4th to all, even if your not celebrating U.S. Independence day, enjoying the great American pastime. YTD 55-38-2 +30.44 units

Keeping it short and sweet. We like Minny at home, Indians come into the Dome at the wrong time and Cleveland just not ready to go toe to toe right now. If your feeling adventurous take the -1.5 runline as you will have a very good edge to take this in a blowout.

MIN -125 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

Thursday, July 03, 2008

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 54-38-2 +29.04 units

This selection comes after a long winning run at home KCR fumbles in Camden Yards. If you feel the way I do Royals bats are finding the ball again. O's might be formidable at home, but this price seems little too steep. Starters will not factor in outcome as the bats will do the talking today.

KAN +140(W)

1-0 +1.40 units

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

MLB Wednesday

0-2 last selection. YTD 53-38-2 +27.88 units

Fading Arizona at home playing against the Brewers. I'm not considering much weight on today's starters Seth McClung and Yusmeiro Petit they're pretty much a wash. NL West is full of mediocrity more about teams going cold than hot. That's the theory for today's selection.
Brewers and take the plus money.

BREWERS +116 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.16 units