Monday, October 27, 2008

World Series Game 5

Can't catch a break in deep post season, but I will tell you when the series total moves greater than 1.5 runs on either direction for following game the play against the movement is obvious public choice and also very suspect. In this case Total 9.5 from game 4 moving to Total 7.5 game 5 at Under -120~130 with 69% consensus betting Over and yet this Total has declined to 7 at some books.

Today's pitchers are both lefties. Cole Hamels pitching last 7 out of 7 quality starts has not allowed more than 2 ER since 9/07. Total ranging from 9~7.5 O/U 1-6 and that single Over game was due to Phillies bats not Hamels pitching. Rays line of defense will start with Scott Kazmir on the mound. He has lost the edge on his slider and games have been going Over when he takes the mound, O/U 7-2 last 9. He's had 3 quality starts out of last 7 with rising 1.63 WHIP, but he was outstanding in his last game, outstanding against Boston before that which was a bounce back game. Phillies and Tampa weaker against lefties, elimination game a plus.

PHL/TAM UNDER 7.5 at -119 for 1 unit(PP due to Rain at 2-2 tie)

This World Series is fading away. It's not the same, it's dragging and this thing might go into November? Give me a break! I love MLB, but we shouldn't be getting rained out. This has not happened because the season has never been this long. The momentum has died and I'm not sure what I'm going to due for the remaining games. Plan is not to force any games and take what comes. Stay tuned and in the mean time watch the bouncing ball in NBA Opener!

Sunday, October 26, 2008

World Series Game 4

Game 4 in Philadelphia will welcome better weather with wind blowing 9mph out toward right center. That’s 401 ft straight away to 409 ft to 385 ft at the "Angle" left center producing an UNDER advantage at Citizens Ball park. The Phillies are 2 for33 with RISP overall hitting .178 in post season and have 2 infield singles in 3 games of World Series so far.
Bull pen has been outstanding with 1.85 ERA in post season, 2nd best MLB all time. Tampa sending pitcher Sonnanstine who is O/U 9-9 away, but at 1.17 WHIP and lower in post season play so there’s little to wonder UNDER trending 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 3, if you had U9.5 in game 3. Looking for runs to come at a premium again with pitchers batting.

UNDER 9.5 at -115 for 1 unit

Saturday, October 25, 2008

World Series Game 3

Here we go in rainy Philly game 3 of world series knotted 1-1, Forcasted before the series as a tight billing with the home field being the edge. That would put Phil's in the drivers seat, but that's not the case with Moyer and two shaky post season starts up against Garza pitching at his best.
Give another edge to Garza with Phillies only having Matt Stairs as the only player to have faced Garza.
Rays -113 for 1 unit

Sunday, October 19, 2008

ALCS Game 7

Red Sox back from the dead have knotted this up 3-3. Tampa will play out this showdown on their turf, but do they have any more home brewed magic? Garza is the last line of defense against Lester who was roughed up in his last home appearance. Just as Rays dominated this match up in game 3 the tide has changed with wind behind Red Sox sail. Wakening of Boston bats in game 5 was uncanny and if Rays were to take this series they needed to close the deal in game 6. Now doubts lurk in young Ray players and confidence is dissipating. Look for Boston return to World Series in a replay of 2007 ALCS.

BOSTON ML -118 for 1 unit(L)

Hats off to Garza & Rays.
0-1 -1.18 units

Monday, October 06, 2008


3-0 Post Season plays. So far Perfecto!

Angels at Red Sox back to game 1 starters where Lester got the best of Lackey, but Lackey is tough on the road. I see this game to be a dog fight as Angels have raised their level of play and Red Sox are at home in post season dominace. You know I would take Angels in a heartbeat if my capping told me that's what's going to happen, but I don't see them forcing the issue in October Fenway. Boston to move on to take on 2008 dream team Tampa Rays.

BOSTON RED SOX -129 for 1 units(W)

I hate to be so right sometimes. I love the Halos they're my So Cal home team, but business is business. Still rolling all winners!
1-0 +1.00 unit

Sunday, October 05, 2008


2-0 in Post Season plays.

Looks like all the losing teams are going down 1-2-3. How about this, Angels to buck the trend in Boston after taking two beating at home. Won't happen? Angels are done? maybe so, but 100 game winner Angels get one more try to get this monkey off their back. First game Lester shut down Angels offense didn't allow runners to cash in. Second game Dice K looked shaky as hell and if it wasn't for the big burst 1st by BoSox home team should of held the series knotted. Now here we are today all or nothing and Angels in spot for elimination. Becket is a big game pitcher, but does not come in strong and under cold weather his oblique issue will be tested. Joe Saunders in last line of defense is much stronger on the road. Take into consideration the meat of Angels line up is hitting and I don't think they'll roll over tonight.

ANGELS +163 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.63 units

Thursday, October 02, 2008


1-0 in Post Season.

I say something nice about Chicago and it looks like both are in trouble. White Sox are on the road so there's some excuse there, but how about them Cubs. Can the Dodgers end Chicago's dream? I'm not going to doubt it.

Two games in slate for Friday, White Sox at Rays and Boston at Anaheim, on first glance it looks Over at Tampa and Under at Anaheim, but that's just me most people see sides I see totals.

Considering inconceivable sides with White Sox and Boston of these two teams I think Boston away with Dice K taking the mound has the best value to risk. Santana is great no doubt and his maturity bring another element to a big game, but this situation with Boston taking back seat to Angels all year only to have them come strong is typical Red Sox playing October baseball. These two team play similar games where both teams used to play on the opposite spectrum, but shed or added players changing their dynamics. There is a edge to Red Sox showing better numbers with runner in scoring position playing the road dog.

RED SOX +130 for 1 unit(W)

Thank you Drew!
1-0 +1.30 units