Wednesday, October 28, 2009

World Series Game #2

Game #1 pitchers battle plays out with Cliff Lee going 9 with no earned run looking sharp taking out the meat of Yankees line up. It was pretty close, but late inning was all Phillies. On game #2 Pedro Martinez against AJ Burnette. Reminds me of old Yankees Stadium when Pedro wore a Red Sox uniform as visitors and the crowd jeered "Who's your Daddy!". That was wild, how long ago was that? I haven't made a visit to the new Yankee Stadium, but the Bronx crowd is not going to change.
AJ got hit by the Angels in his last post season appearance and Pedro is coming off a very good outing so Phillies on short dog seems reasonable, but AJ at home is where he performs. Take the Yanks to put the series back to square.


Wednesday, October 21, 2009

NLCS Game #4

Freeway World Series? That notion is melting like ice on scotch. Is there any flicker, any sign at all for one of these L.A. team to keep playing? I'd like to think so Dodgers are due up, do or die, with their best post season pitcher Vicente Padilla. He's pitching aggressive staying ahead and winning games. Dodgers have won all three October starts last game Vicente went toe to toe with Pedro for 7 inning 4 hit 1 run ND. 4 quality start out of last 7 with 4-0 record Dodgers have won 6-1. Cole Hamel stopped his losses against the Dodgers, but it wasn't like cutting butter. He gave up 2 HRs going 5.3 inning 8 hits 4 runs. Cole has only 2 quality start out of last 7 with record of 3-3, Phillies have 3-4 record. So Dodgers have a shot here! They were right there in last game they will sent this series back to L.A....I'd like to think so, but I ain't playing that. I will go against the losing team coming off a blown save playing on the road. Head to head match up in Philadelphia in recent season is undisputable and Phillies have got to the Dodgers twice, when their starting pitcher was rocked and when trailing late. I'd say there's good chance this comes to finish in the city of Brotherly Love. The consideration for possible elimination and strength of Padilla's road start will go to the Under.

PHL -136

Monday, October 19, 2009

MLB Monday

ALCS Yankees at Angels Game #3
New York sits in a Cat Bird Seat and send veteran Andy Pettitte who has been a long time regular in post season appearance. More importantly for New York Andy wins many of them. Outstanding on the road and he will keep those base runners honest with one of the best pick off move in the Majors. It also neutralizes one aspect of Angels weapon. Andy will also face Angels in offensive slump with surging LOB number and runs becoming a rarity. Yanks aren't hitting all that great either, but they are winning 2-0 in best of 7 series that puts all the pressure on Angels. Does the road dog Yankees look tempting? Before you lick your chops Angels starter Jered Weaver has shown his nasty side and it is very prone at home. The other is Angels home field and head to head match up in Anaheim all back by strong numbers for the Halos. The most compelling is still the Under and conditions looks good for this trend to extend today.

Andy Pettitte 11 quality start out of 17 away with excellent team record 12-5. 2-2 last 5 Total 1-4 O/U. Away games O/U 4-11, against the West 1-3, as a Underdog 1-3-1, in Day games 2-6-1.
Last start at Minnesota went 6.3 inning 3 hit 1 run with 1 BB and 7 SO.
Jered Weaver 13 quality start out of 17 home with just as good team record 12-5. 1-4 last 5 Total 0-5 O/U. Home games 6-9-2, Last home start went 6 inning 6 hits 2 runs with 3BB and 1 SO. Numbers may not be as pronounced as Pettitte, but WHIP is stingy 1.06 for Jered at home. Yankees 5 straight Under, Angels 4 Under out of 5.
NYY/LAA UNDER 8.5 at 100(L)

Jorge Posada routine line drive keeps going for a HR in late inning?

Friday, October 16, 2009

ALCS Friday

Finally the line has moved and mind as well wait for the closing minute to take the visiting Angels. It just doesn't sit right when NYY this high on public list and C.C. get's lower than normal ML at home.

LAA +167(L)

Saturday, October 10, 2009

MLB Playoff Saturday

Dodgers are tough at home and they proved it against their nemesis St Louis Cardinals who in past 100 match ups won 62%. Looking at more recent samples last 14 head to head in St Louis is better than 78% amazing number reflecting domination. Cardinals are backed into a corner do or die and La Russa will pull no punches. Piniero goes for the home team in crucial game 3. He's getting some bad media write up with losses mounting since September, but able to get 6+ inning in 5 out of last 7 and home WHIP 1.093 last faced the Dodger in July 29th going 8 inng pitchers duel against Kershaw giving up 1 run, striking out 7 in No Decision, Cardinals victory 3-2. He was ND Cardinal loss in last start against Milwaukee Oct 4, but likely spot to improve and should produce good number of ground outs. Dodgers will start Vincent Padilla who has paid dividends and wins on the road. Although Padilla's last 7 starts have resulted 6 Dodgers wins he's pitched quality in only 2 out of last 7 and his road WHIP of 1.260 has ballooned to 1.400 in last 3. He's providing around 5 inning and not tested outside of NL West, except Washington with ND gave up 4 runs in 5 inning, and lately not inducing grunders entering hostile territory. Pretty tall order for Dodgers to sweep St Louis, but that's what I'm going to back with wagering public over whelming St Louis. Despite the odds and opinion Cardinals will pay dearly for game 2 that got away. Padilla does not shoulder the weight he doesn't need to go further than 5 with L.A. bull pen not giving an inch. You know the Dodgers have outscored their opponents early to the tune of 121-54

LAD +153(W)

Dodgers roll!

Thursday, October 08, 2009

MLB Post Season Friday

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Now that division series hangover has eased maybe Twins will make a game of this? But what's the excuse for 7 other losses handed by the Yanks. You know the cliche post season is a whole new animal so along with perfect losing season, Yanks home wins, past post season wins all get a wash? I'm not basing anything on match up intangibles Yankees are clear favorite, but will they win Friday? Blackburn is coming in very much improved with contracting WHIP from 1.091 last 7 to 0.905 last 3 compared to Burnett's WHIP which has climbed to 1.488 last 7. Burnett pitched against Twins twice this season 1 win 1 ND both 1 run games both when Minnesota was still mediocre. Blackburn went against Yankees once ND at Bronx going deep and had the Twins right in there. That might not be enough, but good enough to take Twins +1.5

Taking Under as well with Burnett home O/U 5-11, against AL Central 1-5, Blackburn away 3-13-1, against AL East 1-3-1, against RH starter 7-13-1. Last 15 Twins match up in New York 4-8-3.

MINNESOTA +1.5 at +130(W)

MIN/NYY UNDER 10 at +100(W)

Good night

MLB Playoff Thursday

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Anaheim is a tough place for opposition and head to head home team holds definate edge. Angles 49-32 home. They are also returning big 37-17 against LH starter with 22.5% ROI 26-17 against AL East with 22% ROI. The problem is John Lackey 42% at home 7 quality out of 13 with Angels 6-7 losing 2 ND's 4 quality out of last 7 with 3-1, team record 4-3 reflecting ND to Loss at 3:1 clip.

Red Sox are solid and built for Post Season. If any weakness are found maybe 39-42 away, 13-21 vs American League West, but Jon Lester is the top money pitcher for Boston. 13 quality out of 18 road starts, 6 quality out of last 7, 17-6 against RH starter with 18 quality starts and 22-8 as favorites with 21 quality. I will take Boston to steal one and take the Total Under.

Saturday, October 03, 2009

MLB Saturday

Late season games at it's best. Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers on slate tonight with 16 game winner Jorge De LaRosa pitching against young Clayton Kershaw. As many L.A. faithfuls gave high fives when Dodgers crushed the Nationals to start their road trip back on 9/22 that's all history it's all gone down hill from there, 2-6, dropping the series in Pittsburgh who Dodgers have owned forever and getting swept in San Diego with no offense in sight. Back to L.A. with Wolf also failed and now it's very interesting. Clayton was brilliant in first half, but this is a different pitcher on the mound who is win less in last 10 starts, Dodgers only cashed 1 ND, and now under 50% quality at home. Rockies come to play with De La Rosa on the mound winning 20 games behind him. He's also the Rockies top money pitcher with 69% money away. How can you blame me for taking this dog.