Friday, April 29, 2011

MLB Saturday

We rolled with Florida on Friday game and Saturday I going to take the game in the desert. You know the Cubbies are visiting Chase Field in Phoenix. This is game 3 of the series Matt Garza following Zambrano\s win 4-2 Cubs. This series knotted 1-1 and Chicago stopped it's slide at 4. Now Matt Garza is not that bad of a pitcher. He gives you 6 innings and does his job, but the problem is his moneyline game loser the worst in Chicago rotation. On the home mound is Ian Kennedy who happens to be the top moneyline pitcher for Arizona. Ian's coming off a game of his life shutting down the Phillies in complete game and most likely regress here, but considering he's gone 14 innings in 2 games giving up only 1 run I'll ride that home momentum at a reasonable price.


MLB Friday

TGIF everyone! Good Thursday with Boston's timely hit to take the -1.5 RL let's move on to Friday at the Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati Reds welcome Florida Marlins and veteran Javier Vasquez. The last time Cincy hosted the Fish was August of last year, remember the Reds were smoking hot around that time, Reds swept the Marlins holding the lead throughout the series. This time around it's Vasquez against Travis Wood and while Wood has much better K:BB ratio than Vasquez, Wood is a moneyline losing pitcher. Maybe Javier doesn't fair much better as he's just above water getting good run support, but maybe the starters are awash. The Reds in last 10 games are hitting .195 against righties and Marlins are .290 against lefties. So we roll the dice with the hot team at a good value. The Marlins finished their home stand 7-2, almost sweeping the 4 game series against the Dodgers.
The Reds won the recent Milwaukee series, but it took extra innings to do it and they've lost the St Louis series before that, Arizona series before that and Pittsburg before that. Reds are alternating hot cold days and if the game is on the line in late innings Florida bull pen has been shutting them down.

Florida Marlins +139(W)

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

MLB Thursday

Sorry peeps no play Wednesday, but we had a good size dog on Tuesday to keep the flow going into the weekend. It's still early season so we will cherry pick these games.

Baltimore O's takes two straight win against the Red Sox. How did that work out? It crushed the Red Sox backers as road favorite. O's are 4-4 in their latest home stand, but this .500 record includes split with the Twins, Boston series win and lost to the rain shortened Yankees series in the middle. This team has the making of good dog team and Red Sox is just the opposite. It's a bad team to back especially with this early stage record. I'm sure the daily player who lost the two games with Boston might be shy here. It looks like another Boston situation with Lester on the mound, he's never lost to the O's, and Bergensen for the O's who been serving up long balls with regularity. So do we fade the obvious and take the O's ?
Well, I don't think so. After all that I've said I think the Red Sox make a stand with their Ace on the mound and I like the Lefty righty match up. Sometimes the obvious is play against the grain.

RED SOX RL -1.5 at -108(W)

Monday, April 25, 2011

MLB Tuesday

Toronto at Texas
Maybe it's me, but Toronto at this price against Texas who the Jays play well. Also Texas losses comes in pairs.


Sunday, April 24, 2011

MLB Monday

Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Pitchers are Bronson Arroyo and Chris Narveson. Both pitchers are doing well despite the money pushing Over. Brew crew is playing well right now compared to the Reds and hold the home field advantage, but I look for today's line up to turn it around from the left side.
Reds +120(W)

MLB Sunday

Atlanta Braves at SF Giants
Brandon Beachy following two good Atlanta pitching will try to continue the quality start. Brandon is coming off a excellent game at Los Angeles shutting down the Dodgers for 6 innings which gives him 2-0 perfect road game, 12 innings with 0.75 WHIP. The home team will send Jonathan Sanchez to stop the bleeding who is always tough at home. Giants are giving Jonathan ample run support winning his last 3 starts. I feel this Righty Lefty match up will favor the Giants even with the improving Atlanta Bats. Go with the home team.

S.F. Giants -130(L)

Thursday, April 21, 2011

MLB Thursday

Cleveland at Kansas City

Royals +106(W)

Monday, April 18, 2011

MLB Monday

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Tim Hudson goes for the Braves defying father time as the most successful of 2000 to 2004 Oakland A's Big Three, the other two are Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, people keep saying his days are numbered, but he's still rolling. Dodgers will go with Ted Lilly who has been around just as long and put his best game 2006 to 2008. Both of these guys will reach for their battle tested game plans, stay poised on the mound, but somehow I fail to see this game going below 6.5 runs. Braves Dodgers game have gone Over 72% at Chavez Ravine. I'll take those numbers.


Saturday, April 16, 2011

MLB Saturday

This is a game between a team hot on the road against a hot home team. The pitching match up Tyler Chatwood for the Angels and Gavin Floyd for the White Sox pits two pitchers coming off games reflective of today's line. Tyler getting the loss giving up 4 runs, 2 long balls, throwing 90 pitches and lasting 5 innings.Gavin beat Tampa going 8 innings of no run ball game striking out 8 in eye opening performance. But considering the larger sampling of Gavin's performance I'm not convinced on his masterful game to continue. His best year was 2008 and it's been falling since. On the other side young Tyler is a default starter, but also a top prospect with fastball up to 97 and control who can keep the Angels in striking distance. Take the fat number on Halos and look for Gavin's game to decline.

Los Angeles Angels +152(W)

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

MLB Thursday

Dan Haren for the slight dog visiting Halos and young gun Jeremy Hellickson will show his stuff at home. I think this is going to be an pitchers duel. It's a dome game and both teams have the make up of being early Under teams. The line has opened a AL low 7.5 despite the number money has also gone Under. I would time the entry, but the real prize is on the Angels as Rays are down graded product this season. Go against the price move on Moneyline and take the value on L.A.


Sunday, April 03, 2011

MLB Monday

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Both pitchers on the mound are comers and I don't feel the home advantage is all that big. It shows on the line too. Take the Braves as the short dog.

Braves +102(W)

Saturday, April 02, 2011

MLB Sunday

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Watched quite a bit of Spring Baseball, but good thing I didn't lay money on them cuz I was tagging the wrong teams. That's spring where late inning are like playing the blind. Moving on, it Baseball season in full swing. Taking a play from one of the very old school playbook which is to back the ace of past several season who commands favorable money line against a comer of a pitcher at home. You may think decline is in the card for Tim Hudson who is pitching agelessly, even his spring appearance was flawless, with his Braves looking very much like the Braves of yester years. I do not doubt Atlanta's contention this year. Nats at home is very under estimated. Maybe enough for Washington to find the holes, but Hudson in early going looking very much in form is enough to back the re surging Atlanta Braves