Monday, October 29, 2012

MLB Season 2012 is done

Giants win the World Series. Just like 20 of the 23 teams that lost 3 straight games Detroit Tigers make it 21 out of 24 teams to get swept. Thanks for following along.  It's been a great handicapping season as we have won 7-2 in post season gaining 6,720 and 98-65 regular season gaining 41,505 for total winnings of 48,225, didn't quite get to 50K, but not bad for  7 months of work. Just because baseball season is ending doesn't mean it time for vacation  Football season is under way. NHL is in holding pattern and I'll be switching over to NBA at as the hard court will kick off on Halloween.
Looking forward to seeing all of you court side

How much did we make again? Cool 48,225 match sticks !

Saturday, October 27, 2012

World Series Game 3

I'm being selective on my plays. I liked the Tigers in game two with homeboy Fister taking  the mound, but fortunately couldn't go against the hot home team. Took a pass on that bullet and the Under was bit over priced for my taste.

Here's a thought shared by many, the Tigers down 2-0 will rebound at home, and it's a situation with 50 sampling showing 0-2 team winning 27 out of 50. Detroit may have been slow to warm up, but in this spot they better heat up fast or else they may end up like the 23 teams that lost game 3, 20 out of 23 got swept. However out of 27 winners majority took the series to 6 games. Desperation is a motivator and we've seen plenty of those in this year's playoff, but anticipated win is a dangerous thing. The way I see this game or the sequence of games, after Zito's game 1 win was Detroit winning with Fister pitching quality in low scoring game which did not go Tiger's way,  leading to Ryan Vogelsong  and Anibal Sanchez. Both pitchers are having strong post season, but as larger sample show Ryan's performance drops away from the Bay and Anibal coming into a decline spot. Despite Anibal's knowledge of the Giants from his NL days, his numbers against them are good, I fade him after coming off a game giving up no runs. If the situation holds true this game will go Over 7. The Giants go Over away better than 62% clip and back the Giants based on pitchers money standings. Vogelsong second in money with S.F. rotation while Sanchez is a money losing pitcher at the bottom of the Detroit rotation.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +140 for 1 unit(W)
Game Total OVER 7 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
1-1 +0.30 units
Funny how these games turn out. I should of lost the side and won the Total, but that's baseball.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

World Series Game 1

It's come down to these two teams and looking at it from a wagering perspective the odds for the series is the Giants +150 and the Tigers -170. Even with the magic of Zito and the surging Giants at home game 1 is Giants +156 to Tigers -166 with Justin Verlander. If you stumbled upon MLB in it's final series and read all the baseball talk Justin is invincible and the Giants will not stand in the way of Detroit Tigers championship.
I'd fade that thought. Justin Verlander has been good of a pitcher as can be in post season, but his woes have come on the road. His sequence of extended quality starts doesn't have much higher to go meaning performance decline is inevitable. Barry Zito has history of disappointments and it's as though his performance is not registering like an anomaly waiting to return to mediocrity. The Giants have fed off that same sentiment throughout the post season and I will play the home dog.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +156 for 1 unit(W)
Hows that for rockin start of World Series game ONE! Yeah Kung Fu Panda! Zito quality!

Sunday, October 14, 2012

MLB Sunday

Coming off a very exciting finish taking the Over in bottom of 9th in dramatic post season fashion. We're back in business for another game in Bronx.

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
We bucked the Under trend yesterday, but it was not easy. The total has let off the down ward trend and come back to a reasonable number. Still it's a low number between two power teams capable of putting up crooked numbers. The difference will be Hiroki Kuroda, high quality home pitchers, for the Yankees going against Anibal Sanchez, high quality road pitcher, and these two pitchers have excelled in matching up Under.
The trend still moving Under though not as strong as yesterday. Backing the game to stay below.

Game Total UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Saturday, October 13, 2012

MLB Saturday

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
ALSC series Tigers are peaking at the right time and this is the team everyone was expecting the whole season. New York battled the tenacious Baltimore team and won in 5 games. It was some battle indeed and it may have taken quite a bit out of the star studded Yankees making this a interesting first game. Doug Fister taking the ball for the Tigers. He is a middle of the pack, bit on the red in money, pitcher coming off a quality win against Oakland. He has been very good in September and October with only 2 non quality losses. He is a home pitcher and road record is 4-7 with higher ERA and WHIP. New York will send veteran Andy Pettite who is also an middle of the pack pitcher, but on plus side of money. He got little run support in recent two losses, but normally gets healthy dose of runs. Andy 6-1 at home despite going 7 innings only once in last 6 starts. He is also trending Under at home 1 over to 6 under and New York stadium games going Under has been the case for many games this season. However the line has come down to 7.5 which is really low here. One of the key fact of New York Under trend was backed by the high total, but that's not the case today. Looking for this one to buck the trend.

Game Total OVER 7.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Baseball Gods showing me some love! 4 run 9th puts this one Over 6-4 Tigers.

Monday, October 08, 2012

MLB Monday

Washington Nationals at St Louis Cardinals
Looking around getting a feel for this game and St Louis at home is the perception by the majority. The Cards have not lost a back to back since mid September, their strength is at home, these two teams have matched up 24-8 Cardinals in last 32 game played in St Louis. However this year has favored Washington and the play is to follow the money team Washington. Zimmermann has been quality and though with extended wins will be entering uncharted territory he has been bank. Jamie Garcia is money loser in St Louis rotation. He is stronger at home, but not by much. Taking the Nationals.


Sunday, October 07, 2012

MLB Sunday

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
It's feeling like October baseball. C.C. Sabathia on the hill for the Yankees going against Jason Hammel coming off a DL for Baltimore. Both pitchers have been money however Jason has not pitched in a month. He says he's not concerned with his knee and the O's are playing good ball so we'll track his play. Both of these teams have played Under for their season and games are expected to get tighter in October, but today's line has dropped quite a bit from the opening 8.5 to 7.5 and games these two teams played in New York has favored Under, but Camden has been Over. Hammel trends Over at home 6-3 while Sabathia is Over 11-3 away. Taking the game to go Over in Camden Yards.

Game Total OVER 7.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
Had you guys sweating it out all the way to the 9th inning. Have no fear it ain't over till it's over.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

MLB Saturday

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
This is a match up of similar teams. The Reds are 47-34 away and the Giants are 48-33 at home. The Reds with pitcher Johnny Queto on the mound are 22-11 and the Giants with Matt Cain 21-11. Queto 2.78 ERA, Cain 2.79 ERA and though S.F. Giants are going up in price as the betting window is near close the take here is the Reds. Cincinnati have played well against the Giants this season beating Cain twice. AT&T park has been neutralized. Taking the Reds and playing the reverse run line.

CINCINNATI REDS +115 for 1 unit(W)
CINCINNATI REDS -1.5 rRL +175 for 1 unit(W)
Post season grip! 2-0 +2,900

Friday, October 05, 2012

MLB Friday

TGIF people.

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Darvish has made a point as a Major Leaguer and he can very well perform at this level plus some. However Texas Ranger reeling and now in the corner. Can they pull this one out at the Ballpark in Arlington? As a heavy favorite the wagering public says "Yes" But in a close game, a tight game, Baltimore has done it timeafter time. Lefty Joe Saunders will help guide the Birds in this sure to be exciting match up. Backing the O's as the big dog

Baltimore Orioles +187 for 1 unit(W) 

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

MLB Wednesday

97-65 +40,505

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
This is another under the radar type of game. Not much attention two pitchers with little fan fare. Not much to gauge the pitching range so little to predict the direction of their performance. However I would give this one to Jeremy Hefner with 86 innings under his belt. He doesn't have much of quality starts and he's been banged around, but he did go 7 innings of 3 hit no run game with 7 punch outs. I don't think he will exceed that today, but he did string 2 quality games the last time, he followed an 8 innings 1 run game against Houston with 6 inning 2 run game at Miami, both games winners. Maimi Marlins starter Tom Koehler, from what I see so far, is a road pitcher and he labored in last 2 relief appearances, one of them against the Mets, and I expect more of same. The Marlins struggle against losing teams to continue as the pick today is New York Metropolitans to roll.

NEW YORK METS +100 for 1 unit(W)

This concludes 2012 regular season MLB picks. Just about equaled Washington Nationals win & loss record and made more money than Oakland Athletics. Don't go away Post Season coming up!

SEASON RECORD 98 wins & 65 losses
Money +41,505 

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

MLB Tuesday

96-65 +38,895

S.F. Giants at L.A. Dodgers
Love the rivalry L.A. hanging by the skin of their necks. The game today with L.A. season on the line at the Chavez Ravine the wagering public has that "No way will the Dodgers lose today" feel. The line has risen towards the Dodgers all morning even though the line was already pushing Dodgers at the Open! There is absolutely no value in taking the Dodgers. Not in money line or run line as this game promises to be close most likely a one run difference. I think Zito has risen in late season while Capuano has declined and as much as L.A. wants this game it doesn't make it so. Going against the climbing line with San Francisco Giants at a good size dog.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +161 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, October 01, 2012

MLB Monday

96-64 +39,895

Had some problem with "MLB Sunday" I did have a winner with S.F. Giants, but the write up did not post as scheduled. It was most likely my error. Hope to make it up today.

Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
St Louis is magic number 2 away from getting into the post season and they are making a charge. Just won the Nationals series to open at home and those two wins were crushing 12-2 & 10-4. That's against the top team from NL East, but the Cardinals urgency combined with offensive outburst has increased the price as a favorite maybe much higher than where it should be. Jaime Garcia pitching for the Cardinals is in a spot to decline as Bronson Arroyo is in a spot to improve. The Red are looking to take the top seed in National League and they're not laying down here.

CINCINNATI REDS +150 for 1 unit(L)

Saturday, September 29, 2012

MLB Saturday

95-64 +38,705

 Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
  This is the game of No#4 and 5 in AL Central. Not much attention on this match up there's other games with urgency more importance. I see most players have passed on this one, but if you had to gauge it Cleveland at home, winning 2 straight from Kansas, gets the vote, the public vote. Jeanmar Gomez will take the mound for the Tribe and he is a ongoing project. Back from the pen to fill the rotation he is good on relief, but has given up tons as a starter. Jake Odorizzi debut in that 15-4 loss against Cleveland responsible for 3 of those runs going 5 innings and took the loss. You can't really hold Jake to that one sided game. Fading Jeanmar and the Tribe tonight. Kansas City to stop the bleeding and 3 straight wins for Cleveland has come to a peak.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS +119 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, September 28, 2012

MLB Friday

95-63 +39,795

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
The Ballpark at Arlington has produced 49-29 record for Texas. The Rangers just split the series with Oakland 2-2 and today welcome the Angels with Jered Weaver taking the mound. He has been outstanding with the Angels going 22-6 by far the biggest money winner in Angels rotation. Ryan Dempster going for Texas is the no#2 money pitcher in the Ranger's rotation. He was killed just 2 starts ago against Weaver and the Angels, but that seems to be an anomaly. Ryan regained form in last start against Seattle getting a quality win. These two pitchers able to go through 7 innings plus on any given start shutting down their opponent yet the Total have typically under estimated the game. We have this one holding at 9 with money slightly Under. Both pitchers come into this spot with room to improve and this one should go Under.

Game Total UNDER 9 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

Thursday, September 27, 2012

MLB Thursday

95-62 +41,085

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays will have a say in the out come of AL East. They've already split the series against the O's and now they welcome New York Yankees starting Ivan Nova back at Rogers Center in Toronto. The problem is the two games they won at Baltimore were the only 2 games they won in their 10 game road trip. Toronto even failed against two sub .500 teams prior to their long road trip, against Seattle and Boston, and as much as a road trip bounce back game should come into consideration. There is an stronger angle with Toronto coming off a loss giving up double digit runs which is a absolute fade against the Blue Birds. Take Super Nova on the road and fade Toronto on their revenge play.

NEW YORK YANKEES at -129 for 1 unit(L) 

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

MLB Wednesday

95-62 +39,955

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Back to Petco for more Dodgers Padres. Today L.A. will start Aaron Harang 9-10 with the Dodgers recording 12-17. He has yet to win in September and the Dodgers have lost 5 straight Harang starts. However Aaron performs much better on the road and though he's not pitching deep the runs are holding 3 or less. Padres Clayton Richards has been winning games 5 out of last 6 with Padres winning all 6, but the hits are mounting and today the balls may get through. Looking for the Dodgers to take this at Petco Park.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS +113 for 1 unit(W)
Picked up the Dodgers at their best price and we are over 40K  yeah baby!

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

MLB Tuesday

94-62 +38,955

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
The Padres are winning team at home with 40-35 record. That also holds true to San Diego starter today Edinson Volquez splitting 30 starts 15 away 15 at home and while his road ERA is 5.60 at home it's 3.11  much better 9 quality starts with 1.26 WHIP. San Diego returning from 2-4 road trip will be happy to be back at Petco Park. The visiting Dodgers are still clinging to their playoffs hope sending Josh Beckett to the mound. His last start Beckett pitched over 7 innings though getting a ND the Dodgers got the win at Washington. Beckett has shown flashes of his past, but he only has 2 quality starts in last 7 with Dodgers going 2-7. His road record is 3-8 with 5.07 ERA and 1.37 WHIP making Padres home Under dog a tempting play. However both of these pitchers are in a spot to improve. Looking for tough scoring game. 

Game Total UNDER7 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
1-2 Padres and the game is Under.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

MLB Sunday

93-61 +38,965

We have been rocking the bases as of late, for the last week to be exact, the blog has gone 7 out of 7 since last Saturday and looking forward to upcoming post season. Sunday day games are the games we enjoy. Going out to Flushing Meadows in Queens for the Marlins at N.Y. Mets

Miami Marlins at N.Y. Mets
Ricky Nolasco for the Marlins is 12-12 the Fish has gone 14-15 with Ricky on the mound. He is looking strong in last 4 starts going 3-0 with 1.20 ERA and what's been consistent is grounders to fly ball ratio working around 1.80 that's working out to 13 or 14 pitches per inning. Nolasco should improve here. The New York Mets will send Chris Young 4-8, but also looking better of late. He's pitched 2 quality game losses and 1 win in September. That win was at Miami pitching 5 innings of 1 run game to take it 5-1 marking 4 straight wins against Miami.The Mets have won 6 straight against Miami now.  However Young is not a good bet at Citi Field and his performance may decline today. No sweep in New York taking the Fish to stop the slide.

MIAMI MARLINS -101 for 1 unit(L)

Game Total UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 today. Final score 1-2 NY

Saturday, September 22, 2012

MLB Saturday

92-61 +37,965

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Pat Corbin is a 50% quality, 50% winner meaning he's holding his own in his rookie season. Arizona crushed Drew Pomerantz in 3 innings, Alex White got chased giving up 5 runs in 15-5 easily defeating Colorado. There is little doubt with Arizona in this second game. However Colorado will send their best pitcher in late season Jhoulys Chacin. He is lacking wins, but the Rockies are coming up shy of a run in last 3 starts, 2 losses and 1 ND, while giving up less then 2 runs 5 out of last 6 games. Jim Tracy ball has been risky in late inning so going with the first 5 innings of this match up.

First 5 Innings -104 for 1 unit(W)

Private members also got OVER 10.5 on this game!

MLB Sunday

96-64 +39,895

Hello gang. Looks like another nice Sunday for Baseball. Took a hard fought game last night and for those who did not follow the game, it went down to the wire. Lucky or good I will take it.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
So the Giants are already in the Post Season race and the Padres are ready for off season. The Giants are tough on the road, 44-33 which is better than San Diego home record, and they are winning, 7 out of last 10,  The Padres were skidding 4 losses in a row until Stultz went 8 innings for last night's win. Today the Pads send Edinson Volquez 11-11with 4.13 ERA who is coming off 7 innings 6 hit shut out ball against the Dodgers, but as the record indicates he has his ups and downs. The Giants will go with Tim Lincecum 10-15 with 5.15 ERA who was rattled in last start against Arizona, 4 innings 5 hits 7 runs and 4 walks, but he was pitching quality games up to that point, 4 quality starts in a row, and should recover at pitcher friendly Petco.
Despite the Giants position to preserve their players for post season and San Diego's position to win it out at home especially against the division winner the play is on San Francisco with Lincecum in a spot to improve and Volquez in a spot to decline. The line has also moved in opposite direction to my advantage.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +110 for 1 unit

Thursday, September 20, 2012

MLB Friday

90-61 +35,635

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Here we go boys and girls this series knotted up one each. We have Zach Greinke for the home Angels against visiting Yu Darvish for the Rangers.Greinke has been pitching quality games 5 out of last 7 with L.A. going 5-2 he has not lost since 8/19 against Tampa. He is coming off a ND team loss, but pitched 8.3 innings of quality ball. Zach is in a spot to decline from his last game still the runs may come in low. Yu Darvish is 5-7 on the road and Texas is 7-7, but he too has been pitching quality games, 6 out of last 7, looking strong in September. As the saying goes do not chase the line play against it.

TEXAS RANGER +133 for 1 unit(W)

Game Total UNDER 7.5 at -120 for 1 unit(W)

Delivering side & total for 2-0 day! Add another 2.33 to the piggy.      

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

MLB Tuesday

89-61 +34,625

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
It's one of those contender against a spoiler game and these are dangerous as it can be KC has matched up well against the White Sox all season. Luke Hochevar 8-13 has yet to pitch a quality game in September although the Royals put up 10 runs at Minnesota to notch a win 10-5 on Sept. 12th. Luke's game is hard to say if it'll improve I think it'll stay around 6 innings of work 3 or 4 runs. He walked 4 last time maybe that number will go down, but he gave up no long ball so there's a good chance of a HR today. Chicago's Gavin Floyd is a home pitcher and he has not done well on the road, but the White Sox are on winning track. Gavin's ND's are coming out roses. the White Sox 4 out of last 5 when Floyd starts and he has been winning the tight lines. Going with Chicago as a very slight Under dog.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +101 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, September 17, 2012

MLB Monday

88-61 +33,275

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
Hector Noesi has been piling losses 2-11 with Mariners 5-12 and 5 losses in a row. He should of won at least one of the last 3 games, that's how the odds makers saw it, but he dropped all three with tight line. Noesi in a spot to improve for a quality start however I'll go against the Mariners on their return to Safeco with Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES RUN LINE -1.5 at +135 for 1 unit(W)
Didn't it rock your world?

Saturday, September 15, 2012

MLB Saturday

86-61 +30,275

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
The Rangers are leading AL West while Seattle is at the bottom of West. The Rangers have taken the first game 9-3 Texas with best home record in AL will take Jason Vargas on this second game of the series going with Scott Feldman. As much as it's obvious how tall this order is for Seattle this game was played out back in May when Feldman was crushed by the Mariners at home. Don't forget we don't follow winning teams we follow teams making money and Texas in contrast to Seattle does not make much money. I like Seattle in Texas they have played them well. Even yesterday's game was not so one sided until the 7 run 8th inning. Take the value with Seattle and Vargas. Take this game to go Over 9.5

Game Total OVER 9.5 at +110 for 1 unit(W)

SEATTLE MARINERS +190 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, September 14, 2012

MLB Friday

85-61 +29,275

S.F. Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants are inching closer to the top of NL West. Matt Cain going for the Giants is 13-5 very good on the road 7-2 and S.F. has won 10 of his 15 road starts. Opposing home pitcher is Tyler Skaggs with 20 innings pitched in 4 starts. He got banged around in his last start at San Diego, but should be better at home. 
Keep in mind Skaggs is likely to improve, but with 20 innings under his belt the pitching angle is better judged by Matt Cain's projection.  What stands above his team's road win is the Over trend displayed in this spot. Cain a quality pitcher is absolute Over on the road at 10-5 in opposing contrast to his home games . Will this hold true today? There are interesting stat to note which is Cain's average pitches per inning from Aug. 11th has steadily climbed from 12.3 to 18.2 in Sept.2nd, 4 road games, and dropped abruptly on Sept. 8th back at home to 14. This abrupt change in pitches per inning is most likely to rise back on the road in Arizona. What this mean is pitches above 14 per inning is in danger of allowing runs and or short outing. The high Total with Cain on the mound is justifiable. The trick is to play the angle on Cain and take the risk away from the bull pen. Play the First 5 innings.

Game Total OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Wow full game goes Under bucking the trend, but we win!

Thursday, September 13, 2012

MLB Thursday

85-59 +31,435

Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels
Sorry folks didn't have time for a write up this morning. 

OAKLAND A's at +136 for 1 unit(L)

Both teams were putting up zero's, but the Angels exploded in the 7th.

We have a rare double wager on tonight's late game.

St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Are you getting that sinking feeling in L.A.? The Dodgers have 3 losses in a row it's 6 losses out of last 7. The fans maybe worried, but St Louis has done just the same 6 losses out of last 7. Lance Lynn is back filling in for Jake Westbrook. He was removed from the rotation back in Aug, but his record stands at 13-5 with the Cards going 17-8 the problem is he lost a lot of mustard quality starts declined and runs are coming in. Lynn's game has under performed on the road. Josh Beckett looking much better as a Dodger will look to snap the Dodgers skid. Beckett in a spot to improve and Dodgers are the play.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS -116 for 1 unit(L)

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

MLB Wednesday

83-59 +29,225

Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The battle continues in AL West with Texas walking away on top the A's and the Angels will fight their fight to keep their respective position alive. After the Angels swept Oakland in Oakland the A's are looking to pay back the favor. It will be Ervin Santana getting in the way of Oakland tonight. Santana is not the same pitcher who started this season with 6 straight losses. Ervin 2-1 in August with the Angels winning 4 out of 5 and winning both September games. He will be a force to be dealt with as his game is consistent and coming off a 10 strike out game. Ervin should be good for another quality start against AJ Griffin 5-0 Oakland phenom. Griffin is quality and top money pitcher for Oakland. No other pitcher in the A's staff is hotter and Griffin is sporting better number on the road. He comes into this game in a spot to improve. Yes, he only gave up 1 run, but still under performed his innings percentage and I expect him to go deeper. This game is absolutely Under and taking the better pitcher in AJ Griffin with plus money.

OAKLAND A's at +116 for 1 unit(W)

Game Total UNDER 8 at +105 for 1 unit(W)

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

MLB Tuesday

82-59 +28,195

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Here is a interesting match with Tim Hudson going for the visiting Braves. Hudson 14.5 is a force on the mound with Braves taking 18-6 record. He is good home and away, but slightly stronger on the road. Tim is coming off a 6 innings no run game against Colorado. I look for Hudson's performance to decline today in Miller park.  The Brewers have won 7  of last 10 and they are slight favorites as visitors. However the Brewers at home will be a test to be seen. Marco Estrada maybe 2-6 with 112.2 innings of work, Milwaukee losing 10-15, the Brewers still hold a winning record at home 7-6 and Marco is getting better. He's in a spot today to improve. It's going to be a baseball kind of day at Miller Park and the Brewer will not be denied.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS at +103 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, September 10, 2012

MLB Monday

82-58 +29,275

St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
You know what the Padres have done? they went over .500 at home 35-34 coming off a home series win against Arizona. Quite impressive considering their start . They have won two series in a row and as the record indicates they are tough at home. Add Eric Stults to today's start and San Diego looks pretty strong. Stults pitching quality games, beat  LA ace Kershaw  and the Dodgers in last start as +200 road dog, blanked Atlanta before that. Winner of 4 out of 6 and Padres are 5-1 in his start. St Louis is in the hunt, 2nd in NL Central 8.5 behind the Reds, and window of opportunity is quickly closing. Jamie Garcia taking the ball for the Red Birds coming off a quality win, but alternating quality games. He does not fair well on the road and so is the Cardinals at 32-36. Today's line has quickly narrowed, but I think the San Diego play is over done, Stults is pitching good games, but I think he's weaker at home and not relying on Garcia to shoulder the game, but he does have a win over San Diego and matches well against NL West. St Louis 19-10 against the West and dominates San Diego. Take the slight favorite St Louis on the road. 

ST LOUIS CARDINALS at -108 for 1 unit(L)

Saturday, September 08, 2012

MLB Saturday

82-58 +29,275

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
We have two winning pitchers on the mound with Justin Verlander for Detroit and CJ Wilson for L.A. The Tigers pitcher Verlander is 13-7 his ND's are split 4-4 coming off a quality win against Chicago. His road starts are lacking 6-5 with inflated ERA and WHIP making Detroit at Angels home turf not so convincing as a dog. CJ Wilson 11-9 has better benefit of run support his ND's are 6-3, but the problem is Wilson being hittable as of late. This game in question is Over waiting to happen. Looking for the runs to build up.

Game Total OVER 7 at -115 fir 1 unit(Push)
Did you guys see that, Prince Fielder robbed of a home run to end the game 6-1 Angels.

Thursday, September 06, 2012

MLB Thursday

82-58 +29,275

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
Scott Feldman up for Texas he has not been pitching well, 1 quality start in last 5 all Texas losers, looking to bounce back in KC. The Royals will go with Luke Hochevar got shelled in 1.2 innings of work. Both pitchers with losing record yet the UNDER has been 4 out of 5 for Luke and Scott is 9 out of 10. The strong Under trend had me leading that way, but this number seems a bit low and it dropped 0.5 making the Over the attractive choice. That Under trend line looks to break and that's what the play is.

Game Total OVER 9 at -122 for 1 unit(Push) 
You know when it went to 4-4 there was plenty of time to push it Over and we couldn't lose. It happens.

Tuesday, September 04, 2012

MLB Tuesday

82-57 +30,275

Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins
The Brew crew did the quick 3 game home stand against Pittsburgh promptly taking all three games and then dropped the first game away at Miami. Here we are with game two with Shaun Marcum coming off a ND loss at Chicago. He does not fair well on the road the Brewers have lost his last 3 starts all on the road. It's not the quality of his starts he can very well bounce back, but Miami Marlins matches well. They've split the last meet in Milwaukee losers coming only by a run. Sound win yesterday sending Fiers out in 3 innings.
Marlin money has been rising although the majority public is on Milwaukee. Take Miami as a home dog  fading Milwaukee and Marcum on the road.

MIAMI MARLINS at +111 for 1 unit(L)

Sunday, September 02, 2012

MLB Sunday

80-57 +27,920

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
This game will feature NY losing pitcher Chris Young, 3-7 with NY 4-11, going against Mark Buehrie 12-11 with Miami 13-13 logged twice the innings as Young with 166 coming in hot. Buehrie has 3 winners in a row declining ERA and WHIP. Mark pitching this season Miami winners have come in successions he only has one isolated win all the rest are clustered.  He has yet to lose the 4th game in a row and facing Chris Young looks like a good thing for Buehrie  and the Marlins. Chris Young coming off a non quality rare Mets win has given up 5 runs or more 4 times out of last 10, 6 recorded losses and Mets have lost 8 out 10. But if there is chance for the Mets with Chris it's more likely on the road. Young is also in a bounce back spot after allowing 5 runs or more and Mets are playing good ball winning 6 out of last 7. Looking for Mark Buehrie to take a step back. after pitching less then 6 innings. Taking the road dog with New York.

NEW YORK METS + 133 for 1 unit(W)
*Mets Alternate Run Line -1.5 at +205 for 0.5 units(W)
Mets 5-1 that's +2.355 unit gain for the day.  

Saturday, September 01, 2012

MLB Saturday

80-56 +29,020

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
You know the Brew crew is showing strength at 8-2 for last 10 games. Their true color is the home blue reminiscent of 2011 Brewers which was the best home team in baseball at 57-24 this team has been playing pretty tough at home 38-29. Had a 9 game home winning streak from July 30th to Aug. 17th and went 5-2 in their recent road trip which included winning the Pittsburgh series 2-1. The Pirates have lost the first game of this series with Karstens getting lifted in the first. AJ Burnett getting the call for game 2 has strung 4 non quality games with the Pirates going 1-3. He should improve here, but Milwaukee bats have been hot I don't know if AJ can contain them. Marco Estrada for Milwaukee has back to back win and 3 straight wins for Milwaukee I'd look for him to decline a bit here and give up few runs. My expectation is for one or both of these pitchers to come out with a ND and both teams to put up some runs. Over 8 runs to be exact. 

Game Total OVER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Friday, August 31, 2012

MLB Friday

79-56 +28,020

Looking into the crystal ball getting a glimpse of the future and reading the outcome doesn't always turn out that way. Future is a ever changing thing and only parts come to vision like a clue you need to piece together for the big picture. It's all an process of what's likely and what's not nothing psychic about it. 

Hitting some bad games, but it's the nature of the game. Playing 5 innings today see if we can improve here.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
The Orioles are on the rise, 7-3 in last 10, closing in on division leading NY Yankees. The Yankees 4-6 in last 10, but will be sending their top home pitcher in Hiroki Kuroda 9-4 with 2.22 ERA. He is coming off a quality start loss at Cleveland 1-3 which was rare for the Yanks not to take advantage of Kuroda's quality start pitching deep into 8 inning. Kuroda in this sequence is not likely to pitch deep as he did in Cleveland, but his performance is steady Orioles will not be getting much runs Baltimore countering with Miguel Gonzalez, reliever turned starter, coming off a non quality loss, but has been pitching well to that point.
The Under seems like an obvious play and the money is 9O, but I staying Under. There seems to be some bull pen discrepancy with Randy Wolf coming into Baltimore reliever corp likely to make a appearance which can be concerning. Let's keep it to the first 5 inning.

First 5 innings Game Total UNDER 5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)


Thursday, August 30, 2012

MLB Thursday

79-55 +29,170

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Rick Porcello  9-9 with 4.60 ERA on a losing streak of 3. Although he has 4 quality games out of 11 on the road his record is 5-4 with Detroit winning 6-5. Jeremy Guthrie is 5-11 with 5.85 ERA and he is having trouble on the home mound, but his performance has been climbing. Jeremy coming off a non quality no decision. This game will match up closer than it looks. Royals on bounce back scoring Over is11-4 after scoring 2 runs or less. Porcello is Over 24-7 after coming off a game allowing 2 runs or less. Over 20-6 following a game where opponents score 2 runs or less.

Game Total OVER 9 at -115 for 1 unit(L)
Baseball gods don't like my play!

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

MLB Wednesday

79-54 +30,220

Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
The Twins down fall started around Aug. 10th and Minnesota has been getting killed since.  The losses between win since Aug. 10th is 4, 5 and 5 now in midst of 2 losers in a row. The Twins will send Samuel Deduno with 51 inning of work winning 4-2.  He is coming off a non quality loss, second loss in a row, but he has been pitching well up to that point and has bounced back from bad starts before. The problem  is Deduno's walk number which I think the Mariners will capitalize on. Jason Vargas also coming off a non quality loss, but he's pitched 10 quality games before that Mariners winning 8-2. Vargas is the top Seattle money pitcher this game again to the Mariners.

SEATTLE MARINER -105 for 1 unit(L)

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

MLB Tuesday

79-53 +31,220

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Contenders go at it tonight with James Shields for Tampa against  Yu Darvish for Texas. This match up has Texas, #1 in West, heating up at Arlington winning Minnesota series 3-1 and Baltimore before that 2-1 needing one more win for a victory to take the Tampa series making a successful home stand before heading out to Cleveland.  On the other hand Tampa Bay 3rd in AL East locked in with Baltimore for 2nd place. Tampa in range to catch the Yankees on top, but taking a dip on 3 game slide losing yesterday with their top pitcher David Price. This team still does it with good pitching and can't afford to give up 6, 4 and 5 runs like they did in 3 losing efforts.10 game samples prior show allowing 3 runs or less 9 out of 10 and 17 out of 20. So the Rays need a quality start from James Shields. Price  is the top winning starter for Tampa, but Shields is the top money pitcher and here he is again in underdog situation.  The perfect stopper of 3 game skid. James is stronger on the road and he is already looking like he's in post season form. Rangers too have a winning pitcher on the mound with Yu Darvish, 12-9, coming off a quality game loss at Toronto 2 quality starts in a row, but his performance is inconsistent. He's had tremendous run support with Rangers going 9-2 at home however his 11 home starts have only 5 quality games. This is a decline spot for Darvish. Looking for James Shields to post a quality win.

TAMPA BAY RAYS +120 for 1 unit(L)
James pitches quality, but Tampa gets shut out!

Sunday, August 26, 2012

MLB Daily Picks

Hey Everybody,
I want to welcome some new viewers. The MLB season is going into it's final stretch, but plenty of games left to take more winners. Matter of fact baseball wagering takes a little dip around this time of the year with money migrating to NFL, but don't take your eyes off the bases Boston is down shifting out of the race, the Dodgers cranked up their offense,  implications are many, but only one will make it to the top.

I didn't pick the late game with Atlanta at SFG. both with similar record, because I like Hudson going for Atlanta, but I think the Giants are the hot team at home and basically cancelled out this game. Maybe the Giants will win, but in order to manage your games my philosophy is to narrow your choices. Give it your best shot and if it doesn't come through you live to fight another day. The beauty of this game is that the choice is yours. If it doesn't look just right don't buy it

7-1 Atlanta. Hudson did bring his "A"game and the win was a big margin, but did I miss a opportunity?  I don't think so it just means I'm still on hot money.

MLB Sunday

78-53 +30,220

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers are a winning ball club. Despite their winning ways Detroit lacks money making starters, but that's not the case today. Max Scherzer taking the ball he is 13-6 with 147.2 inning of work. Detroit's record with Max on the mound16-9 splitting the ND and he is in fine form logging 3 straight quality wins. Ervin Santana will start for the Angels. He too is pitching well his August games 2 quality wins and 2 ND both wins. I think the pitcher are both going to improve and this one is going Under.

Game Total UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
If you were wondering how I got 9.5 at -105? Last night's 5Dime over night reduced line.

Saturday, August 25, 2012

MLB Saturday

77-53 +29,220

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Here's a good pitching match up. Club leading winner Gio Gonzales 16-6. He's pitched 3 winners in a row 2 of them quality and the complete game in Houston. Doc Halladay coming off a non quality win with 12 runs to over come 5 runs he allowed. Though Washington is the popular pick today I'm going with Philadelphia as a small home favorite. Philadelphia has matched up well against the Nationals despite 18 games difference. The WHIP on these two pitchers are moving in opposite direction and the Phillies have a good chance here to win this series after splitting with the Reds. 

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Thursday, August 23, 2012

MLB Thursday

77-52 +30,220

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
Texas since losing the Yankees series are back to their winning ways. They won the Toronto series at the end of their road trip and won the Baltimore series back in Arlington. Now the Twins are struggling. Their road trip has only produced one win. Got swept in Seattle and lost the Oakland series only winning 2 of last 8 games. However Roy Oswalt is lacking quality game and this match should be interesting with Scott Diamond pitching in a spot to improve. Lets see if the Twins can get to Oswalt.

MINNESOTA TWINS +155 for 1 unit(L)

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

MLB Wednesday

77-51 +31,420

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox 
The Angels are in trouble. They are losing ground and the clock is ticking. Went 3-7 in 10 game home stand, stopped the bleeding yesterday after dropping 4 straight. The sweep by Tampa was real ugly outscored 37-14 in 4 games. But Boston is also hurting, lost 5 of last 7 and 9 of last 13, 4th in standing 8 games out of wild card. The good thing for the Sox is they have their top pitcher Clay Buchholtz 11-3 with 4.19 ERA. His numbers are much better since 5/27 with 2.19 ERA and 0.94 WHIP and Jered Weaver does not do well at Fenway, 6 starts with 7.16 ERA 32.2 inning pitched 26 earned runs. Still the Angels does have the better number and Weaver is on a bounce back on a career season. Let go with the low score.

Game Total UNDER 9 at -120 for 1 unit(L)

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

MLB Tuesday

77-50 +32,420

S.F. Giants at L.A. Dodgers
Tim Lincecum going for the Giants. He is 6-13 with 5.45 ERA coming off a non quality loss to the Nationals at home. Home team is sending Joe Blanton. He is 8-11 with 4.96 ERA coming off a non quality loss at Pittsburgh. Pitching indicator today says Tim is in a spot to improve pitch deeper into today's game a likely quality game. Joe is also in a spot to improve, but may continue his non quality performance. However the difference in pitching indication does not mean Giants will take this game, but likelihood of improved scoring. The speculation is to go against the Total which is pushing  under and play the Over.

Game Total OVER 7.5 at +110(L)

Monday, August 20, 2012

MLB Monday

77-49 +33,430

Sorry folks had a technical glitch preventing my Sunday play.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres
The Bucks coming off 19 inning game winner at St Louis before flying in to San Diego. Pittsburgh gave everything they got and didn't have a starter announced for awhile, it's Kevin Correia. But the question is how much does the Bucks have today? San Diego Padres starter Edinson Volquez is on a slump and laboring through inning. Yes, I think the Pirates will roll at Petco Park. Going with Pittsburgh.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES -101 for 1 unit(L)

Saturday, August 18, 2012

MLB Saturday

76-49 +32,430

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
Cole Hamels is on fire. The Phillies starter is coming off two shut out, not one, but two. Make it 3 quality starts in a row. His WHIP for last 3 starts is 0.84 with 0.72 ERA. Maintaining his current form will be something to see, but it sure has the making of monster finish this season. Milwaukee is looking for a bounce back from their right hand phenom Mike Fiers getting knocked out at Colorado in just 2 inning of work. Let's chalk it up to mile high fever getting to Mike his first non quality start since joining the rotation. Despite both teams trending Over with Philadelphia Over 36-25 away & Milwaukee 38-22 home this total is set at a low 7.5 Tony Randazzo calling behind the plate is Over 14-9. However both pitchers are absolute Under when the total is set at 7.5 and looks are they are poised to pitch a good game.

Game Total UNDER at -117 for 1 unit(W)
Back on winning!

Friday, August 17, 2012

MLB Friday

76-48 +33,530

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are going to send their big gun tonight with Jered Weaver. He is coming off a loss, a rare loss, after logging 9 straight games and the Angels had won 12 straight with Weaver on the mound. This is a bounce back spot and he will be tough to beat at home. On the other side is James Shields also in great mid season form. His game has been on the rise since 7/20. Both of these pitchers do not trend Under, but the nature of this match up, Weaver off a loss and Tampa's winning ways against the Angels I think will lead to a tight low scoring game.

Game Total UNDER 7 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Thursday, August 16, 2012

MLB Thursday

75-48 +32,480

 Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Interesting game tonight with these two teams. The Rays are on 10 game road trip finished two, 3 game sweep at Minnesota & 1 out of 3 loss to the Mariners. They have their top guy on the mound today in David Price, but the bats need to come back against Dan Haren. Coming off a shut out offense should be motivated and Dan was rocked for 5 runs in little over 3 inning in his last start. Dan's had issues this season with non quality start.  He is in a spot to improve, but I don't expect any more than 6 inning.  Despite his last loss as a fat -228 road favorite he's turned in 3 quality starts before that winning 2 out of 3. Both winners came at home one against Texas and another against Tampa. The Rays David Price has been lights out lately with 0.86 WHIP in last 3 games. This game is going UNDER

Game Total UNDER 7.5 at +105 for 1 unit(W)
That was close. Bet the hook baby!

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

MLB Wednesday

74-48 +31,440

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
It's the Amazing R.A. Dickey to the mound for the Mets visiting the Great American Ballpark. Coming off a complete game winner, his fourth complete game this season, going through strong stretches going deep last 3 starts giving up total of 3 runs. Dickey on top of Majors in wins, 6 games with 10K's or more and three of those with no walk. Mike Leake for the Reds coming off a quality ND 3-5 loss at Chicago and doesn't look good at home 1-4. However the play is against Dickey coming off a complete game. Looking to get few runs off Dickey tonight and maybe the pen. Mike Leake has been improving since the San Diego game 7/30 and he could post another quality for two in a row. 

CINCINNATI REDS +104 for 1 unit(W)

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

MLB Tuesday

72-48 +29,390

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Josh Beckett 5-9 with 4.97 ERA will go for the Red Sox. He is coming off a bad game against Texas pitching 5 inning 8 runs 3 home runs losing 10-9 and complaining of back pain.  Josh has pitched 4 non quality starts in a row and only one quality start in July. He will be opposed by Wei-Yin Chen 10-7 with 3.79 ERA starting for the Orioles. Coming off a non quality loss against KC lasting 4.2  inning giving up 7 runs and 2 homers throwing 86 pitches. However Chen is the Orioles top money pitcher who has allowed 3 runs or less 5 games before the collapse. He is very likely to bounce back. I would venture Beckett improving as well, but the trend is against Josh Beckett and the Red Sox. Going with the home team Baltimore and Under 8.5 for this match up.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES -109 for 1 unit(W)

Game Total UNDER 8.5 at +105 for 1 unit(W)

Didn't expect Baltimore to put up 7 runs, but still delivered Side and Total winner. 7-1 Baltimore! Yeah! 

Monday, August 13, 2012

MLB Monday

71-48 +28,390

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
The White Sox are not exactly hitting all cylinders, but they did manage to take 2 out of 3 series at home and they hope to take advantage of the reeling Toronto team.  The Blue Jays are 3 out of last 10 just lost the Yankee series at home, but they did put up 10 runs knocked out Hughes in 4 innings. Salvaging the last game against the Yankees 10-7. Both of these teams are coming off a big scoring win. However today's starters will look to quiet the bats. Chicago's Jake Peavy is not having much luck logging wins, but hitting Under's on the road 3 Over to 8 Under and he will take the ball in a spot to improve. Carlos Villanueva is not trending Under, but he doesn't give up much at home 3.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. I expect his game right below that range today. Going with the UNDER

Game Total UNDER 8 -115 for 1 unit(W)
2-3 Toronto Blue Jays and UNDER

Sunday, August 12, 2012

MLB Sunday

  70-48 +27,390

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
A game with teams going in opposite direction, Atlanta on the rise and New York falling. Similar situation for the starting pitcher with Ben Sheets rolling without his mid to high 90's fastball, still not giving runs and winning games. On the other side, Jon Niese 1-4 last 5 he's also dropped last 3 home starts and the Mets have done little to help. Neise in a spot to pitch better, but Sheets have been consistent with little measuring range. I would estimate with 7 hits 1 run 1 walk no strike out and he went through Phillies line up like butter it was a exceptional start and more likely his performance will decline rather than exceed. However there is little to expect from New York offense. As the pitchers are closer matched today than anticipated and Total remaining to stay low the play today is Over. Late inning to spoil this one

Game Total OVER 7.5 at 100 for 1 unit(W)
5-6 Mets and OVER!

Saturday, August 11, 2012

MLB Saturday

 70-47 +28,610

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Edwin Jackson looking to follow a strong win yesterday with Strasburg and Nationals have won 3 out of 4 games from the Diamondbacks so far.  The Nationals have won 7 straight and 8 out of last10.  However the Nationals have yet to face the Diamondbacks All star Miley while Jackson remains the weak link in Nats rotation. Arizona is struggling at bit, but expect better things back home. Taking decling line on the short home favorite and fading Jackson on the road.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACK -122 for 1 unit(L)
Big inning killed this play!

Friday, August 10, 2012

MLB Friday

69-46 +28,630

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers.
Going to the Ball Park at Arlington. Detroit Tigers were red hot, but ran into Yankees dropping their last two games. Still a force not to be taken lightly they look to take their heavy bats on this road trip. Colliding in Texas where double digit score is not that unusual. Today's starting pitchers Max Scherzer, 10-6 with 4.72 ERA, for Detroit and Scott Feldman, 6-6 with 4.52 ERA, Scott is pitching the better game coming into this match. Max is in a bounce back spot coming off a non quality win and back to back non quality start. Anomaly  in is last 10 starts he has logged 7 quality starts. Scott is coming off a quality win and rolling 3 quality start wins plus 1 relief appearance. He's showing excellent command walking 1 batter in last 3 games 22.2 inning of work. He's given up 1 home run in 5 starts. Though Max Scherzer is in a bounce back spot I feel Texas back home from a successful road trip will contain the Tigers and take this game.  At the same time this Total is extremely high for these two pitcher today. Going for the twofer.

1)TEXAS RANGER -120 for 1 unit(L)

Game Total UNDER 10.5 at -112  for 1 unit(W)