Monday, April 30, 2012

MLB Monday

(10-2 +9,820)
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Although New York Yankees have played the nemesis of O's for many years and 2012 has yielded similar results, so far, this Baltimore team has gained momentum and strength since these two teams last met. Just from the line perspective the Orioles are under priced by far.
We have good pitching match up, but I'd give Baltimore the edge with Hammel on the rise. Hiroki for the Yanks is a warrior too, but I see too many hits as Kuroda's years maybe starting to show. I think the starters will give 6 innings plus today. For the bull pen coming into play they are pretty much even play. Orioles on revenge play with hot pitcher as the under dog.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES +153 for 1 unit(L)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES RL +1.5 at -140 for 1 unit(W)
BALTIMORE at YANKEES Under 9 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Had our chance, but both pitchers were excellent and Kuroda beat us.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
This game with crooked line has Padres written on it. Taking the line near closing window. There's not much time to give this game analysis. The consensus is on Milwaukee like white on rice go the other way.


The late game was the killer, hate it when that happems ! 

Sunday, April 29, 2012

MLB Sunday

(9-2 +8,820 units)
Missed Saturday post.  Saturday post are very difficult because it lands after Friday. One's mind may not be as clear as it should be. At least you know I put some effort into my workmanship.

Anaheim Angels at Cleveland Indians

Dan Haren goes 8 innings to stop the bleeding in Cleveland. Angels off to one of their worst start in years are 7-14. Working off a rare win Ervin Santana will take the mound. He did shut down the Indians on last season's visit, but this is not the same Santana.
2012 edition Ervin Santana with 4 games started has yet to pitch a quality outing. His last start, opposing Tampa Rays & David Price, gave up 8 hits 5 runs and very disturbing 4 home runs. That makes 4 games in a row with multiple long balls given up by Santana. Along with Ervin's decline his team has recorded 0 runs in his last 3 starts. He needs to Pitch quality and Angels need runs both sounding like a tall order right now against Derek Lowe (Lowe & Gomez are the top money pitchers for the Indians). Tribe kept it close yesterday and the day before, but that was facing Weaver & Haren. Lowe has been quality and his 2 home starts boasts 0.69 ERA & 1.16 WHIP. Lowe is inducing grounders and slumping Angels line up will have tough time scoring again. Indian bats are quiet too and considered UNDER 8.5, but Ervin might not help. Going Indians at home, although home has not been as friendly as the road Angels are bad home & away. So Lowe to dampen thing for the visiting Angels. The Indians are leading AL Central and Angels are in the dark, in the basement, looking for the stairway to AL West.

CLEVELAND INDIANS -110 for 1 unit(W)

How did you like that one! How many runs for the Angels? 0 and Indians 4. Santana pitched a good game, but Lowe looked like he was going to finish that one. Chris Perez shut the door in the 9th with 15 pitches, did you see him eat up Albert Pujois?,  and man oh man! Santana gets another 0 run from his mates.

Friday, April 27, 2012

MLB Friday

(8-2 +7,420)
Back on track looking for more! Padres edge out the last game against Washington Nationals and take the game late. That's two games in a row that had you by the skin on your neck.

Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
It's the lefty righty match up with Wandy Rodriguez for the Stros and righty Mike Leake for the Reds. This angle is similar to what I saw with Giants coming to town. Houston offense is on the rise with moving average in +1.5 scoring differential against opponents. Mike Leake has not been quality and Wandy is throwing 0.71 WHIP on the road. Yeah, I remember last September when Arroyo opposed Rodriguez and despite Wandy pitching a gem Arroyo did one better with a complete game shut out. I'm sure Wandy remembers too. The Reds are not to be taken lightly they took two series back to back, but at this price taking the Astros and Wandy Rodriguez.

HOUSTON ASTROS +140 for 1 unit(W)

Thank you I'll take that in large bills.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

MLB Thursday

(7-2 +6,420)
Coming off a close winner yesterday. I know you guys don't like the close one's, but there are no automatics and you got to respect them lines.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
The Nationals are good, very good, and Padres are bad, very bad, but no team wants to get swept especially at home. That's what"s brewing tonight at Petco and the lines have been choppy. Both teams have crossed over from favorites to underdogs. If you like the Nats it's a good time to pull the trigger, but it's been dropping since the line up came up or maybe slightly before it became public. We will take a shot on the Padres. Jackson pitching for Washington got rocked by Houston and maybe the weak link in Nationals rotation. Volquez for San Diego had a nice outing against Phillies at home, he's had 2 nice outings at home. I think the Public looks Nats with last match up blasting San Diego and not many games gets by the Nationals, but line doesn't like them. No sweep at Petco park tonight.

SAN DIEGO PADRES ML +100 for 1 unit(W)

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

MLB Wednsday

(6-2 +5,420)
Mat Latos came into form last night and Cain got shelled. Expect the unexpected as they say and we move on.

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Not exactly an under the radar type of game, but far as trying to figure the out come we got Feldman on the rebound and Hughes, though winner of last game, is touch and go. So rubber match with some unknown for the starters and most likely the pen will come into play.
It has the making of high scoring game, but it seems these games are always set too high.  I think that's the case here today.

TOTAL UNDER 10.5 at -110(W)

Play that hook baby! Texas 7 - Yankees 3 UNDER 10.5

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

MLB Tuesday

(6-1 +6,450)
Sup gang? Did we or did we not rock yesterday? Yes we did! 4-1 Blue Jays going UNDER 8 and sweeping the Royals. Morrow was quality with 6 2/3 innings and so was Chen 7 innings in 3 run ball game.

SF Giants at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds welcome SF Giants to Great American Ballpark. The Reds and Latos returned from their 10 game road trip, got Monday off, waiting on the Giants. Probably had some chance to catch a bit of that Giants vs Mets double header. Maybe the Giants come in little worn? Regardless of the situation entering this series the Reds have swept the Giants at home  and 5 out of 7 wins last season. But Latos, a new addition, has not pitched to his expectation. Mat Latos has been disappointing so far and his expectation is high return to his form is likely at some point, but it's hard to speculate if the home field is going to it here. Giants coming off an offensive awakening along with Cain makes them very dangerous. Past match up makes this line close, but Giants offense on the rise with strong starter makes them the play.

SF GIANTS ML -103 for 1 unit(L)

That was terrible.

Monday, April 23, 2012

MLB Monday

(5-1 +5,450)
OK the game got PPD and maybe I should of saw that one coming. Hope to make up that one on Monday's game.

 Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals

The Blue Jays on top of east is feasting on the Royals or Kansas City cursed at Kauffman stadium? The lines are tight with Brandon Morrow for the Jays and Bruce Chen for the Royals at -104, but LV Hilton got the Royals at even money! I guess if any one's going to break the home slaughter on the 4th game of this losing series it's got to be Chen he has been quality and Morrow has trouble with the Royals.... Maybe so, but most will take Toronto and whoever visiting Kauffman until the Royals right their home field.

What's interesting here is the Total 8. By virtue of Toronto's games (10-4 O/U) and Kansas City 50%(7-7 O/U). Also looking at both teams average runs and runs allowed makes this Total pretty low.
It does have the appearance of a low Total, but this series, unlike other series Jays have faced at home, is not sailing OVER and as for the Totals in this series O/U is 1-1 With 1 push. The Royals in previous series against Detroit went all three UNDERs with Chen right in there 7 innings 2 run ball game. This being the 4th game of another home loser I expect Royals to tighten up. Also Morrow's away game was a beauty in Cleveland, 7 innings 1 hit 2 run with 0.57 WHIP, and change of scene may do him some good. Looking for a tight low scoring game to go UNDER 8.

TOTAL UNDER 8 at -107(W)

If you look up "Misery"  you'll see the Royals, but UNDER 8 pure winner!

Saturday, April 21, 2012

MLB Saturday

(5-1 +5,450)
Yes I'm late for Saturday games, but coming in flush into the weekend there was no need to rush yourself. As players it's important to be in the grind, but knowing when your ahead of your game is knowing when to take your money. Buy yourself something nice treat yourself. How about that for my angle today. No? your a degenerate who can't get enough? It is one's test to control and know how to stay out of harms way. It's Saturday better put on your good shoes for stepping out. Tip for Sunday's Fish at Nats game is for the game to go UNDER 6.5

Friday, April 20, 2012

MLB Friday

(4-1 +4,450)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

 Greeting Players! Coming off a crushing win yesterday. Moving on to Wrigley Field where the struggling Cubs will host the Reds. Cincinnati lost their series at St Louis, but managed to salvage the last game. Taking a stab on runs scored & allowed differential in recent games. You will clearly see Reds are playing the tighter game. The Cubs on a fade here and play on the Reds.


Thursday, April 19, 2012

MLB Thursday

(2-1 +2,020)
Houston Astros at Washington Nationals
Nationals are playing well and it has been impressive to see them come from behind to take late game wins. Today the Astros will go against Edwin Jackson coming off a complete game winner not even breaking 100 pitch count. Stros in danger of getting swept and has not won a series since opening against Colorado April 6 to 8th. Houston will send Bud Norris to salvage the 4th game of this series. The road has been brutal for Houston 1-5 so far, but Norris has been the man on the mound for 2 of 4 game winners and likely scenario will be another close game. Take the Astros Run line +1.5 with decent shot to take this on the ML, but RL is the strong play. Houston 4-8 ML record is just the opposite of 8-4 RL record. Astros yet to be swept in 2012 and Norris is a good pitcher to back.

HOUSTON ASTROS RL +1.5 at -165(W)
*smaller play on Houston ML at +143(W)

Houston takes this one with ease. Did not need the extra run and win both wagers!

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

MLB Tuesday

1-1 +570
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays.
Tampa stops the bleeding in their last game at Boston with Shields out pitching Bard, but their 7th of 10 game road trip continues to Toronto and opponents are simply killing the Run Line on the road (-1.9 runs inflate to -3.5 runs). Jeff Niemann has matched up well against Jays last season, but Rays have shaky pen. Romero was dominating in his last start against Boston, ND at Cleveland before that. Looks like he's continuing strong pitching from Spring training, he did not give up a hit in 11 innings of work with 10K and 2BB. Toronto 6-3 on Run Line. Backing Ricky Romero and the Jays to win it by 2 runs or better at the Rogers Centre(why do they spell it like that?) formerly known as the Sky Dome.


Friday, April 13, 2012

MLB Friday

1-0 +1,570
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

Two veteran pitchers go tonight. Wolf for the Brewers and Juarrjens for the Braves. Both pitchers are coming off losses taking some knocks inflating their ERA. Both pitchers would like to right the ship get back to their form and Braves are risking quite heavily on Jurrjens to step up on the opener at Turner Field. Even with Wolf being historically bad at Turner Jair may have fundamental issues with drop in velocity. Weakness has plagued him all spring. I'll take the Lefty over the righty in Atlanta. Brewers has not been shy about taking games on the road and certain irrelevant factors are pushing this line.

Milwaukee Brewers +114 for 1 unit(L)

Saturday, April 07, 2012

MLB Sunday

Sunday baseball is baseball. Where else should you be but a baseball field somewhere on a sunny Sunday afternoon? Why not ponder what will unfold? Be amazed and sit at the edge of your seat? For that 3 hours or there about forget all your worries, count every pitch, watch every move and get caught up in the game.
I like the Royals today at Anaheim Angels. They looked better over the past two games. Don't forget Ervin Santana on April 2, 2011 in Kansas City pitching the Angels Opener. Santana came out of that game with a ND, but Angels went on to lose that game, Jepsen gave up 2 runs at bottom of 8th, 5-4 and Santana's season went on to 11-12 with 33 starts. That was a demise from 17-10 in 33 starts in 2010. Santana's support was lacking in 2011 April, attributed to 3 starts Angels lost by a single run, and Santana finished April 2011 going 1-3. This is also combined with poor September showing which is something you don't want to see in a pitcher your backing.
Jonathan Sanchez in his first appearance as a Royal. He is on a bounce back year with limited appearance last season, went on DL in late June with left biceps tendinitis, though he try to hide it, and there was control struggles leading to that point. There was also Zito coming back from DL at the same time Giants were growing short on Sanchez. Is he better than Santana here? As the line indicates Sanchez is questionable, he even got hit during Spring Training, but can't really judge him as a Royal just yet as you can with Santana as an Angel. Royals has given Santana troubles, de ja vu to the Halos Opening series.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS +157 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, April 06, 2012

MLB Saturday

There are different school of thoughts to test the waters in MLB. I take little bit from all the schools, mostly old school, and put that in the mix, but what I'm really looking for is misperception or misrepresentation. The quality of early underdogs can be richly inflated though inflated lines alone can not be used as indicating factor. From this point reflecting on spring performance can bring clues to April out comes. Key in some statistical numbers to plug iin and shed some light on today's games.

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Cubs coming off a late game loser where the pen gave up the game. Cubs are a short favorite again and Matt Garza will take the mound. Opposing will be Gio Gonzalez for the Nationals. The Cubs have not dropped two straight home opener since 2008, but Garza has signs of a slow starter, 2-6 before turning his game last season.
Gonzalez, coming off a season in which he recorded career bests in wins (16), ERA (3.12) and strikeouts (197) with the Athletics, was traded to Washington in December. In 10 Interleague starts during his four years in the American League, Gonzalez was 3-3 and he has value.
The Nationals bring a much better team this season and the take will be on the money and alternate run line giving -1.5 for the boost.
Good luck players!


Fell into place nicely today. Love them feisty Nats