Wednesday, May 30, 2012

MLB Wednesday

(32-23 +10,920)
Brew crew take out the Blue crew last night in a tight one.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
KC and the Tribe are going for the rubber match. The Royals will send Bruce Chen and Cleveland will go with Jeanmar Gomez. The Indians are fighting at top of AL Central with the White Sox and this is where the schedule advantage falls on Cleveland or at least that's how it looks, but it didn't work out yesterday. Chicago South siders took out Shields and Tampa while Cleveland failed to keep pace losing to KC. Surely  Cleveland will secure the series? after all the Indians have been strong against division foes and Jeanmar Gomez, despite his unassuming 3.94 ERA & 3-3 record, the Indians are 5-3 making Gomez the top money pitcher. Chen on the other side 4.81 ERA 3-5 and opposite to Gomez is the biggest money losing pitcher with KC going 3-7 even worse on the road at 1-4.
Still something about the Indians at Progressive field facing KC Royals brings back to memory the momentum shift for the Royals. You know when they finally halted their long skid losing all them games at home, 12 to be exact 10 of them at home, when they finally won it happened at Cleveland and KC won that series taking game 2 & 3. It was around that time in  late April entering May when KC started to win games. Matter of fact Chen's 3 wins all happened in May. Unlikely as it maybe KC are poised to steal this series again. Cleveland showing slight weakness toward left hand pitching as Chen will likely improve from his last outing. Gomez also in a spot to improve, but his base on ball number has been on the rise in May.

KC ROYALS +115 for 1 unit(W)

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

MLB Tuesday

(31-23 +9,700) Greeting players. Hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend. I know there was good deal of games I missed, but there was no connectivity so let's not sweat it. Looking at a simple plan today.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Second game of this series with both teams calling up their respective starters. Michael Fiers for the Brew and Nathan Eovaldi for L.A. Both filling in because of injuries and predictability on their performance is very limited. What everyone does know is that Milwaukee is awful on the road and L.A. dominates at home. No one expects Dodgers to drop another after a close loss especially with Kemp coming back.. However there is another interesting angle to this game, the 75/80 rule, which is simply to play against a team getting 75% to 79% of public wager.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS +123 for 1 unit(W)

Thursday, May 24, 2012

MLB Thursday

(30-22 +9,410)

San Diego Padres at New York Mets
Mets on the road have accumulated O/U 18-6 78% Over an amazing rate. However total runs have been declining over the course of Pittsburgh series. Now Mets are back home, where O/U is 8-11, hosting another low scoring ball club the Padres. The starting pitchers are Eric Stults for San Diego, 2 starts both quality, both UNDER. Mets starter is Jeremy Hefner. He is the option for Miguel Batista who was the option to Mike Pelfrey so Jeremy is the third option who will try to show case his stuff while Chris Young rehabs. This should be a good spot with low scoring Pads and I think he's good for 5 innings. Stults will also catch Mets struggling to score. I think it's good for the UNDER
As for this game Stults is superior in my opinion, though he may not make the decision, but more importantly Mets are in a position to give one back even fresh off the series win, the games were not dominant in any of their win. The take is to go against the Mets.

Game Total UNDER 8 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
San Diego Padres +129 for 1 unit(W)

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

MLB Wednesday

(29-22 +8,410)
Coming off a win yesterday. Many of today games are already under way. That's ok though the best team in baseball is playing the late game!

 Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
It's funny the line up changes and Dodgers line goes the other way. I'd take straight action on the big D at this point. However we look at the high game total in NL at 9.5 begging to take the UNDER. Taking a look at recent games the Dodgers have scored no less then 6 runs during this 6 game winning streak.  Joe Saunders coming off a ND in Kansas City, 6 innings 8 hits 3 run Arizona win 6-4, but was rocked at home twice before the KC game. The Diamondbacks O/U 13-8 at home and recent games with Total in 8.5 to 9.5 O/U is 5-2. Ted Lilly is the Dodgers top money pitcher, but if there's a sign Lilly has not had a quality outing twice in a row and it was only covered up by Dodgers offense. This game very much has double digit runs written on it.

Game Total OVER 9.5 +100 for 1 uni(W)

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

MLB Tuesday

(28-22 +7,210)

Starting to feel better.

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
I've been watching it since opening. The bucks, despite their 20-22 record, are a money making team Thanks to fat lines and ability to defend PNC park the Bucks are NL Central top money ranked team, St. Louis now losing money and Reds are second. Today the Bucks will send their top money pitcher James McDonld, 4 out of 4 quality starts at home with 1.65 ERA & 0.88 WHIP, and people are taking noticing.  The bull pen has been steady especially at home. The Pirates stole one yesterday with Mets being their own worst enemy and they can seal the series with a win today. I think the wagering public likes this story, but at this point the Bucks are not so much under the radar they are expected to win today. On this spring day some clouds when the air is slightly thick wind low, this is the type of day RA Dickey looks to pitch his best knuckler. He is Mets top money pitcher 7 quality starts out of 8 and Mets are 6-2 when he takes the mound. The pen has some issues, but on this day Dickey performance may rise. Taking the Mets to knot this up.

N.Y. METS +120 for 1 unit(W)
Mets 3-2 win! 

Monday, May 21, 2012

MLB Monday

(26-22 +4,960)

Not happy yet. Considering fading Angels today, but my first take is the game out in the desert.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pat Corbin making his 5th start for the D-Backs. Since being called up he's been building innings and though 5.73 ERA is telling 2 of his bad outings was on the road. You got to give the kid credit with 3 road start and 1 home stand, he did quite well at home against SF Giants giving up 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings. Pat used to be a Angel before the Dan Haren trade package sent him to Arizona. His velocity has been climbing since and has a natural sink and cutting action on his pitch. He also has pretty good strike out ratio showing good command, but he was always slated as the back end of rotation type of starter lacking that go to out pitch. So he's on a learning curb, but Zona's feeling pretty good considering how the road trip went splitting Dodgers & Rockies then winning KC in inter league series taking the rubber match. Now back home Chris Capuano and the Dodger come fresh off sweeping the Cardinals. Chris is also the back end of rotation starter coming off a loss in San Diego, but he is no# 2 money pitcher with Dodgers 6-2 in his start. L.A. is not as strong on the road, 9-9, as they are at home, 19-4, but Arizona is not a tough home team, 7-12, doesn't handle left hand pitchers, 5-9, playing against winning team, 4-10, against Caupano who is likely to improve. Regardless of Corbin's performance here the betting wisdom would say L.A. used up too much energy in sweeping St Louis therefore D-Backs will sneak win at home already taking one in L.A. and Snakes play heads up against division foes. Then your siding with the line and it maybe so, but it's 50/50 proposition without much value I'm not going to recommend. Take the Dodgers rolling for 5 games in a row, they've done it twice already.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS at +117 for 1 unit(W)

Anaheim Angels at Oakland A's
I don't want to auto fade the Angels, they are under the guidance of Iron Mike Scioscia who is battle tested leader and strategist not to be taken for granted. He is a catcher from old school National league built on good pitching, speed on base path and years of managing American league Angels has brought his unique balance of agility and power. The Angels do not have the pieces to be exactly what Mike has in mind the small ball is just not there and power is lacking right now. Jerome Williama have pitched well, but I don't think he can carry the game. J. Williams pitches quality games, 5 out of 6 and record of 4-1 winning all three games in May, but Angels are 4-2 with both losses coming on the road. OK, he did face Tampa & Yankees for the losses back in April, but 7-14 Angels on the road. I'm not even going to get into RISP they failed to cash.  Bull pen is still not up to par and if there was any momentum it was quashed in San Diego. Oakland sending Tom Milone  5-3 in 8 starts, perfect 3-0 at home, coming off a loss at Texas. Doesn't look as good as he did in April and A's are tad below .500 at home, but this is a fade on Angels. Oakland true to money ball are the top money making AL West team, yes more than Texas.

OAKLAND A's +108 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 night! Gettin' warmer! Don't let me getin my zone.

Sunday, May 20, 2012

MLB Sunday

(24-20 +4,550)

Despite recent down fall on posted picks much of my angles are the same and like a slugger going through a slump it will came back on track.

Sunday games are the best, in my opinion.

NY Mets at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is rolling NY and the Mets will face another tough pitcher, Henderson Alvarez 7 quality starts out of 8 and 4 out of 5 at home.  He's a work horse pitching deep even has a complete game shutout only needing 97 pitches to do so.  The Mets have been in decline since winning the D-Backs series than sweeping the Phillies series, May 5 to 9th, during that period Mets were on offensive power surge topping the 5 game win streak with 10 runs on their last win. Miami series seems to be the turning point where they still had plenty of offense scoring 5 runs in a loss and 9 runs in a win, but the final rubber match loss strung Miami, Milwaukee and Toronto to the list of demise. Can Dillon Gee stop the sweep? 5.65 ERA & 1.44 WHIP? Gave up 7 runs in 5 1/3 innings including 2 HR against visiting Milwaukee, May 15th, 0-8 loss. Dillon has 3 quality starts out of 7 and his games are going Over to the tune of O/U 6-1 It's understandable to think Toronto sweep in this situation, but Gee is likely to bounce back from his terrible outing and Mets are 3-0 behind Gee on the road while Alvarez is 1-4 at home. Mets are a good Underdog team 17-14, 15-9 against right hand pitching and decent 9-11 on the road. Backing the Mets for no sweep as a decent size dog and taking the OVER.

NEW YORK METS +158 for 1 unit(W)
NY at TORONTO OVER 8.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
Took down the OVER.
Here we go baby! 9th inning Mets hanging to a 1 run lead! Drama is unfolding, GO METS!
Oh yeah, put two base runners on to keep it interesting then strike out the side, No Sweep!

Looking at the West coast game.
Anaheim Angels at San Diego Padres.
The weather is going to be perfect baseball kind of day. Ervin Santana will go for the Halos against Anthony Bass. Here's another rubber game and Padres would sure like to take this series at home. Bass is coming off a win at Washington beating their ace Strasburg on 8 innings 1 run gem. Not to forget Angels have lost their fair share of rubber matches this season, but I don't see Bass getting it done today. More likely his number will decline today. Santana's game is coming on track he is pitching deep. He had no run support in April and losing games now he heating up, shutting down Oakland for 7 plus inning in his last mound May 15th, his stuff has been looking nasty in his last 2 starts. Going Angels and Angels RL -1.5 to take this series on the road.

ANAHEIM ANGELS -117 for 1 unit(L)
ANAHEIM ANGELS RL -1.5 at +145 for 1 unit(L)
No time to snooze, got 2 in the bag and still in the grind.
OMG! Another late inning loss giving back the early runs.
Slightly positive with Mets coming through!

Saturday, May 19, 2012

MLB Saturday

(24-19 +5,590)

Going with a matinee game.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees
Andy Pettitte was vintage last night. I don't think Cincy's been shut out this season. On the other side Bronson Arroyo looked sharp too, but in my view Arroyo is over performing himself right now. Anyway that's something to think about for the future. Second game of 3 game series at Yankee Stadium will feature two right hand pitchers, Homer Bailey for the Reds and Ivan Nova for the Yankees, with records opposite of each other. NY starter Nova sporting 4-1 Yanks are 6-1 when he takes the mound, record and he is the top money pitcher for the Yanks. His only loss so far was back in May 2nd when Arrieta blanked the Yanks in their home field. That loss snapped Nova's 15 consecutive game decisions 1 game shy of Roger Clemens 16 and he's picked it back up with 2 game decisions since the loss. That's why they call him "Super Nova" I guess. But his revenge game against the O's, his last outing, was a ND game where Teixeira got a 2 run blast in the 7th to put the Yanks ahead. Nova was hit for 5 runs and on the hook before getting bailed. Regardless of his performance you have to say he's a pretty lucky guy to have on the mound for you not to mention he went 16-4 last season. Ivan Nova gives good reasons to like the Yankees today, but Yanks are not playing all that well. What I don't like is RISP 3-48 in last 6 games.
Home Bailey may lack Nova's wins, but he has more quality starts than Nova. Take out Milwaukee start back on May 8th and he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs dating back to April 14th. Bailey has 5 quality starts out of 7, on the road 4 out of 3 and 4 for 4 in day games. Let's keep it low and tight.

Game UNDER 9.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Sean Marshall is killing me! already lost the Under to his pitching. We had 0.5 with 9 runs at the bottom of 9th.

Friday, May 18, 2012

MLB Friday

(24-17 +7,620)

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
The Nats in April was a Under trending team O/U 7-15 which has sharply turned in May O/U 11-4-1 Baltimore is similar though not as pronounced, April O/U 9-13-1 & May O/U 9-7, offense is keeping the O's on top of their game despite mid level starting rotation. Today's pitchers, Orioles Jake Arrieta is coming off a shelling against Tampa giving up 7 runs and yet the O's made it a game losing 8-9. Before that Jake gave up 6 runs to Texas that game ended 3-10, he has 2 quality outing in his last 7 starts and showing good promise of 62% Over pitcher. Not to be too quick on the trigger with the Nats & Edwin Jackson his ledger showing red, he is the biggest money loser in Washington rotation and he has thrown 3 quality out of last 7 starts. Edwin owns pretty good WHIP just tad above 1.00, but he's giving up the long ball making him go Over for all games in May. Both of these pitchers may improve here, but this Total has not adjusted to the rising scores.

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
Game TOTAL OVER 7 -103 for 1 unit(L)

Anaheim Angels at San Diego Padres
This is a very interesting game with visiting Halos sending Jered Weaver to the mound. His last outing was in Texas where the Rangers tagged him for 8 runs in 3 innings and he had a tantrum in the dugout.
Weaver will likely come back to form in San Diego to match up with Jeff Suppan, but can the Angels win? Keep in mind the Angels are unexpected losing team, although they are improving, and they have higher expectation of their season as do the backers. Because of these expectations they are favored in many of their losing games. Padres too have quietly improved, but they continued to play as underdogs and so the difference is evident in the teams return on investment. Weaver despite being the ace and top game winner for the Angels at 5-1, team record is 5-3 and because he is a high favored pitcher he is only a slight money winner. Whereas Suppan ranks no#2 money pitcher for the Pads, but he has only logged 3 games. In this situation I prefer to fade the Angels purely on the premise Weaver will not complete the game  with a shutout and Suppan will keep this game in striking distance.

San Diego Padres +165 for 1 unit(L)

Tough night again 0-2

Monday, May 14, 2012

MLB Tuesday

(23-17 +6,620)

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Derek Lowe and the Tribe stop the skid and looking for more. Jason Marquis got shelled the last time out, but like I said yesterday, this is a scrappy team, and Marquis like Pavano has not lost any money.  Capable of bouncing back. Twins made a late rally to tie the score only to lose it in the 9th. I don;t think they have too many late inning comebacks though.

CLEVELAND INDIANS -130 for 1 unit(W)

This one was sweet considering some strong cappers went the other way.

MLB Monday

(22-16 +6,620)
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Twins pitcher Carl Pavano got an MRI and he was OK so Gardenhire is going to stay with him. Manny Acta also see some light in Jeanmar Gomez coming off a rough outing. The collapse was extreme with 8 runs being scored and inflating his ERA from 2.14 to 4.66, but Acta was pleased Jeanmar went 6 2/3 innings. That did save the pen a little bit. Both teams have gone 4-6 in last 10, Indians 3 losers in a row while the Twins took a close one against Toronto. The Twins despite their losing record just won the Toronto series, all one run games, and took one game from Angels series as +150 dog (2 other losses net -0.50). The Twins maybe losing, but they're not going away easily. Pavano 5.02 ERA (6.88 ERA at home) gets good support and he might have an losing record, but his money winnings as dog makes him the second best money maker in Twins rotation. I like the Twins, but Cleveland looks little better. The Cleveland Indians need to stop their skid and Gomez needs a bounce back. Both are likely as Cleveland and Goimez excels on the road. Backing Cleveland Indians.

CLEVELAND INDIANS ML -119 for 1 unit(W)
CLEVELAND INDIANS RL -1.5 +135 for 1 unit(L)

Sunday, May 13, 2012

MLB Sunday

(19-14 +5,720)
Have been taking some bad beating. I'm not making excuses, but the angles on these wagers are still in the right direction.  Look at Cleveland at Boston series, I picked the loser, but the following games of this series is all Boston pounding the Indians. Putting all that in my rear view.

SF Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Going to back the D-Backs at home.  Cain tamed the snakes last night for the Giants and we look for Saunders to take the rubber match. Arizona dominates the Giants and it's time to retake this game.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -1 RL at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Anaheim Angels at Texas Rangers
You know I'm going with Dream Weaver and the Halos. His stuff has been nasty as hell good enough to take down the mighty Texas line up. Feliz is a fireballer for the Rangers and Angels will be sitting dead red. Anaheim for the rubber match as the road dog. No surprises here.

ANAHEIM ANGELS ML +120 for 1 unit(L)

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Total at Dodgers stadium is too low today. These guys are getting good rips, especially the Dodgers, and the runs are sure to come. I think Dodgers alone will drive up this score. Taking Dodgers to whip the Rockies and knock out some pitchers.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS RL -1.5 at +155 for 1 unit(W)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS ML -140 for 1 unit(W)
ROCKIES at DODGERS OVER -120 for 1 unit(W)

Thank god for L.A. Dodgers!

Saturday, May 12, 2012

MLB Saturday

(18-13 +5,720)
Coming off a big day and need to keep it going.

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates stock has been moving up and Morton on the mound Pittsburgh will look to keep the ball in the park. He's been working on that sinker, which didn't work in his last outing, and Pittsburgh are slight favorites. Houston will go with JA Happ, he is throwing quality 4 out of 6 and getting good run support with 5-1 Over in all his starts. I will sell the Pirates stock while it's high and go with Houston

HOUSTON ASTROS +124 for 1 unit(L)

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Understand Juan Nicasio is a money winning pitcher, #2 best in Rockies rotation,already beat Harang & Dodgers at Coors and he is 2 for 2 quality starts on the road.  Dodgers pitcher Aaron Harang is the last man on Dodgers money list of pitchers. Matter of fact he is the lone money loser in the rotation. Yet this game at the Rivine gives slim chance of Rox taking this game.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS at -125 for 1 unit(W)

Nothing day!

Friday, May 11, 2012

MLB Friday

(15-13 +2,720)
Anaheim Angels at Texas Ranger

Heading into hostile territory. Angels fighting their way up, but task gets harder than Minnesota in this series against Texas. Anaheim will hand the ball to ex-Ranger CJ Wilson, pride of LMU and a SoCal product, the Angels work horse sure to go deep. But will Angels give him runs? Yu Darvish going for the home team and I think he will hold down the runs. Texas has dominated Angels and I don't see much change happening today. These two teams play Over and Over in Arlington is how we roll. Hope this game gets played the rain is looming.

GAME TOTAL OVER 8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

TEXAS RANGER -1 RL at -103 for 1 unit(W)

TEXAS RANGERS ML -143 for 1 unit(W)

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

MLB Thursday

(15-12 +3,750)
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox

Derek Lowe, Indians coming to Boston. Red Sox are hurting they've lost last 7 of 8 dropping the KC series. I feel their pain, but I'm no Bean Town homer. Can Josh Beckett stop the bleeding? Red Sox 4-10 at Fenway so far and Indians are solid 9-3 on the road. I thought about taking Lowe and Indians at this very attractive price, but first appearance at a glance has been a killer.
Derek Lowe 4-1 in 6 starts, Indians are 4-2, his game has been quality 5 out of 6 and has not allowed more than 4 runs (once) 3 runs (once) 2 runs (twice) one run and a shut out. No surprise 5 out of 6 games have gone Under. This impressive record stacks up to Josh Beckett 2-3. Boston 2-3, with 4 quality out of 5 and scratched  from his last start. Started this season on a forgettable 7 run 5 homer game in Detroit and have since settled allowing no more than 3 runs. But he is 75% Over with 3-1-1, one game he imploded and in two games Red Sox put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Even with Lowes great record his weakness is on the road where he splits 1-1 with 5.73 ERA &
2.73 WHIP and Beckett thrives at home, although also split 1-1, but with 2.40 ERA & 0.93 WHIP.
Red Sox as mid range favorite at home facing opponent with winning record has been gold.

BOSTON RED SOX -1 RL at -103 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Wednesday

(15-11 +5,000)
Feeling a bit cold lately.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians

Peavy for the Sox going against Gomez and the Indians. Last time I backed Peavy the White Sox lost to Detroit, 2 run blast at top of the 9th, in a heart breaker.  It was a sign of bad things to come I guess.
I still like Peavy, he had no hand in that loss, 4-1 and 1 ND pitching deep games. Jeanmar Gomez has thrown back to back quality games against high power offense of Texas and going toe to toe with Haren and the Angels. Jeanmar is starting to eat innings. Now Cleveland Chicago series in early May went OVER in all the games played at Chicago. But Cleveland games have shifted to UNDER back at home. (Texas series Under 2-1, Chicago series Totals so far 1-1-1) Chicago games also trending UNDER (Detroit series Under 2-1) The total today is extremely low 7.5 price has been moving Under. I agree with this UNDER holding for 9 innings

Game TOTAL UNDER 7.5 at -125 for 1 unit(L)

Why not? Sox put up 6 runs in the 4th inning. Gomez implodes! Great!

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

MLB Tuesday

(15-10 +6,200)
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Nats are going with Edwin Jackson, he throws hard, but has bad days. 2 quality games out of 5 starts is nothing to hang your hat on plus he's lost both road starts. The other side is home team Pirates going with AJ Burnett, he's only had 3 starts, but he blank the Cards in his only home start Bucks winning 0-2. The small pitching sampling doesn't give much, but one of these pitcher being effective should notch another UNDER.

TOTAL UNDER 7.5 -120 for 1 unit(L)

Anaheim Angels at Minnesota Twins

Fading Haren once again. I'm going to keep hitting it until the money adjusts or Haren makes adjustments.

MINNESOTA TWINS +151 for 1 unit(W)

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A's

Jarrod Parker looks pretty good, but A's rotation are work in progress. Romero to come through one more time.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS -118 for 1 unit(L)

Tough night continues. These picks are fade material!

Monday, May 07, 2012

MLB Monday

(15-8 +8.200)
Boy, yesterday's Texas still leaving bad taste in my mouth. Looks like a lot of people had the same thought on fading Texas today. Baltimore line was much fatter last night when I made the comment after the Texas game. One thing to note about last night's game, I may have said this in the past,but the bet on the Rangers was 75%.  That means 75% of wagering public was on Texas and that is the percentage you want to avoid like a plague. Any time you see the wagering public on 75% to 80% go the other way or stay away. I'm not sure how old this rule is, but I know it's been around for quite a while and made it's point again last night. I actually picked it while it was below that 75% mark, but no matter now.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Something about the games at Petco park gives Padres a bit more credibility, more worth to backing them. You expect good pitching and scrappy plays. Low scoring games with San Diego emerging victorious, that has been the type of games we are familiar with. Today's Padre pitcher, Edinson Volquez 2-4, is doing what's expected, keep the runs down and keeping Padres in the game. He's been quality in 4 out of 5 home games and has not allowed more than 3 runs. Also has strung 2 win for Pads in last 2 starts allowing 1 run in 14 innings. Colorado Rockies will call on Drew Pomerantz, young arm made his debut last season, he is a by product of Ubaldo Jimenez trade to the Indians. Pomerantz pitching 1 quality game out of 4 and holding a record of 0-1 Don't you already like San Diego Padres at this point? Yeah I thought so,but I think we need to fade the Pads tonight. Sorry 7-13 at home, 4-12 against division opponents, 6-13 after a loss, 1-10 facing lefties. Backing the Rox tonight.


I have a second play this evening...

St Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Been contemplating this game. As games go I know there are bias to every wager and at Zona runs are bountiful. Look at what the stats show this season, Arizona Diamondbacks 9.4 Total per game, high total for NL team, Over is 10-3 when played in Phoenix. St Louis comes to Phoenix with 2nd highest production in baseball at 5.4 runs per game. Sounds like the good'ol days with Barry, Mac & Sammy, yet today we put up couple of strong arms and the Total is 8.5 Over.
The Total line has been pushing Over at -125, but I think this direction is wrong. The scoring number is really in line maybe even a tad high. The featuring starters have MLB's top rate WHIP numbers and I feel Lynn, St Louis, perfect 3-0 all quality on the road with 0.78 WHIP and Saunders, Arizona, all 5 quality starts 0.96 WHIP, 1.07 WHIP at home, will pitch deep enough to keep the Over out of reach.
Lynn 60% UNDER & Saunders 80% UNDER.

CARDINALS at DIAMONDBACKS UNDER 8.5 at +115 for 1 unit(L)

Wow! blew 2 units and strung 2 losers in a row. Need a good day/1

Sunday, May 06, 2012

MLB Sunday

(14-6 +9.740)
Hey gang took another Saturday off after that heartbreaking loss to Detroit.  Should of play'd Sox again they took sweet revenge with a 2 run 9th of their own.

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians.

The Indians are a good team, 14-11, and unit for unit show good return for your money. Not only that they are making money on RL which is always a good sign.  All this because Cleveland wins many games as Underdogs. Their recent games will show they won the White Sox series on the road and Angels series at home before that. They knotted up this series with Texas, had that late rally to tie the game last night, before losing in extra inning and Sunday is the rubber match!
Again the Indians will remain Underdogs on home field, pretty good size dog at that, sending Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound. Opposing will be the Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish, I understand his father is Iranian, who is turning into top money pitcher for Texas. As much as Cleveland has made for their backers Jimenez has been bleeding red. Ubaldo is laboring with too many pitches and he was blasted for 8 hits, 7 runs in 4 2/3 innings, throwing 105 pitches against the White Sox (5/01) Kansas City knocked him around before that. Neither of those teams are offensively powerful as the Texas Rangers. I won't totally discredit Jimenez I can imagine Ubaldo improving against a tough opponent here and he has shown ability to bounce back in the past, but Darvish will give no margin for error with recent improving pitching 0.85 ERA & 1.02 WHIP  He has a live arm. From his scouting report he has 4 seamer, 2 seamer, slurve, curve, splitter and shutto (shutto is supposed to move down and in to right handed batter has greater velocity than a reverse slider). From what I've observed he has impressive movement on that ball and it's been against Toronto, New York and Detroit he's kept quiet. Now Ubaldo bouncing back after the stinker for 6 inning or even 7 innings of work maybe, but taking down Texas? That's a tall order for Jimenez and the Indians today.  More likely Texas Rangers will easily take this game

TEXAS RANGER -154 to win 1 unit(L)
TEXAS RANGER RL +105 wagering 1 unit(L)
That was a blow! How good was Jimenez? He shut down the Rangers and Texas did not score until he was gone.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Going Phillies backing Hammels over Jimmermann. No sweeping Phillies.

Didn't have much time for a write up and it's all hindsight, but winner is a winner. It wasn't even close.

Yeah it was a "blow it" game with Texas today. I'm thinking of fading them tomorrow with Baltimore rolling. You know the O's share the same win loss record with Texas. The difference, Texas is on decline and Baltimore is on the rise.

Friday, May 04, 2012

MLB Friday

(14-5 +10,740)
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
This game will feature two good pitchers in a righty lefty match up. Drew Smyly is the lefty for Detroit pitching excellent games on top of money winnings in the Tigers rotation. Jake Peavy righty for the White Sox is also the top money pitcher for Chicago. If you look at past match ups the Tigers have taken most of the wins and majority of those wins were not even close. However the most recent series was won by the Sox and Peavy was the first game winner. As much as everyone likes the Tigers at home their home record is below .500 and Chicago is a very good road team. I also think the White Sox pen is better. Looking for Peavy and the White Sox to take this game on the road.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX  +100 for 1 unit(L)
This game was in the bottom of 9th with Chicago leading and Thornton blew the save. 5-4

Thursday, May 03, 2012

MLB Thursday

(13-5 +9,390)
Toronto Blue Jay at Anaheim Angels

Dan Haren is painting the corners for the Angels and it looks like the Halos are starting to roll. I think the Angels are heading in the right direction and Weaver going no no in their last game has some euphoria in the air. With everything going Angels way I'm going the other way, Blue Jays and Brandon Morrow, one of the best on the road, up against one of the most over valued pitcher on Angels rotation.

Dan Haren 3 quality starts out of 5 with Angels losing 4 of those starts. Dan has pitched 2 quality starts out of 3 home starts and Angels have been defeated in all three home starts. Dan is coming off a win at Cleveland, 2-1, 8 innings 4 hit 1 run game. I feel this number will decline today at home. Dan Haren is the 2nd biggest money loser in the rotation behind Santana. Losing games have all been as favorites ranging from -140 to -180.
Brandon Morrow also 3 quality starts out of 5 with Jays 3 - 2. Brandon's road starts is quality 2 for 2 with Jays winning both. Brandon's road performance 0.66 ERA with 0.88 WHIP, lights out. Brandon is coming off a win against Seattle, 7-0, 6 innings 5 hit no run game. I can't see him pitching any better, but maybe he'll go 7 innings. Jay's pen is also better on the road and Angels pen are work in progress.

 Toronto Blue Jay +135 for 1 unit(W)

5-0 Blue Jays win! Brandon Morrow you da man! 9 innings 3 hit NO run complete game baby!

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

MLB Tuesday

(12-4 +9,770)
Irrational exuberance last night. One of those strange day I guess.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
D-Backs sitting just above .500, but actually playing better on the road (6-4) will make their visit to National Park. Trevor Cahill will get the call and so far he is also better on the road.
For the home team Jordan Zimmerman who has been a work horse and pitching quality games. He is also known as one of the least run supported pitcher in the league.

Total UNDER 6.5 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
One of Jays top prospect a.k.a. Hutch will go up against Rangers closer turned starter Feliz. Jays pitcher has good movement on his fastball and good change up. If Hutch's locating strikes he'll keep the Jays in game. Texas pitcher Feliz is going to come at you and he can throw fireballs. These two pitchers may seem like two comers Feliz is much further along in MLB experience plus Texas is the best on the road.

TEXAS RANGERS -138 for 1 unit(L)