Monday, May 07, 2012

MLB Monday

(15-8 +8.200)
Boy, yesterday's Texas still leaving bad taste in my mouth. Looks like a lot of people had the same thought on fading Texas today. Baltimore line was much fatter last night when I made the comment after the Texas game. One thing to note about last night's game, I may have said this in the past,but the bet on the Rangers was 75%.  That means 75% of wagering public was on Texas and that is the percentage you want to avoid like a plague. Any time you see the wagering public on 75% to 80% go the other way or stay away. I'm not sure how old this rule is, but I know it's been around for quite a while and made it's point again last night. I actually picked it while it was below that 75% mark, but no matter now.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Something about the games at Petco park gives Padres a bit more credibility, more worth to backing them. You expect good pitching and scrappy plays. Low scoring games with San Diego emerging victorious, that has been the type of games we are familiar with. Today's Padre pitcher, Edinson Volquez 2-4, is doing what's expected, keep the runs down and keeping Padres in the game. He's been quality in 4 out of 5 home games and has not allowed more than 3 runs. Also has strung 2 win for Pads in last 2 starts allowing 1 run in 14 innings. Colorado Rockies will call on Drew Pomerantz, young arm made his debut last season, he is a by product of Ubaldo Jimenez trade to the Indians. Pomerantz pitching 1 quality game out of 4 and holding a record of 0-1 Don't you already like San Diego Padres at this point? Yeah I thought so,but I think we need to fade the Pads tonight. Sorry 7-13 at home, 4-12 against division opponents, 6-13 after a loss, 1-10 facing lefties. Backing the Rox tonight.


I have a second play this evening...

St Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Been contemplating this game. As games go I know there are bias to every wager and at Zona runs are bountiful. Look at what the stats show this season, Arizona Diamondbacks 9.4 Total per game, high total for NL team, Over is 10-3 when played in Phoenix. St Louis comes to Phoenix with 2nd highest production in baseball at 5.4 runs per game. Sounds like the good'ol days with Barry, Mac & Sammy, yet today we put up couple of strong arms and the Total is 8.5 Over.
The Total line has been pushing Over at -125, but I think this direction is wrong. The scoring number is really in line maybe even a tad high. The featuring starters have MLB's top rate WHIP numbers and I feel Lynn, St Louis, perfect 3-0 all quality on the road with 0.78 WHIP and Saunders, Arizona, all 5 quality starts 0.96 WHIP, 1.07 WHIP at home, will pitch deep enough to keep the Over out of reach.
Lynn 60% UNDER & Saunders 80% UNDER.

CARDINALS at DIAMONDBACKS UNDER 8.5 at +115 for 1 unit(L)

Wow! blew 2 units and strung 2 losers in a row. Need a good day/1

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