Monday, August 06, 2012

MLB Monday

67-43 +29,800
Washington Nationals at Houston Astros
Today we have Nationals visiting Minute Maid park in Houston. Going for the visitors is Edwin Jackson meeting for the second time since April 19th, he lost that match 4-11, coming off a non quality start loss to Philadelphia, but a 2-3 final 1 run loss giving up 3 and failing to get out of the 5th inning with 108 pitch count all 3 runs came on solo homers He does have couple of quality starts before that, but again 3 non quality starts precedes making.2 wins 3 losses in last 5. He's not the same since getting chased out in Colorado 6/28 leading to declining performance in July, but don't complain about bad July to Dallas Keuchel he didn't have one quality start and lost all 4 July games making his loss streak 5 in a row. Dallas got shelled too, in last 4 starts he gave up, 7, 5, 6 & 4, all, but one game going Over. The obvious choice here is Washington Nationals and Game Total Over 8.5, but do not rush into this pick. The public wager is on Washington 78% which qualifies this game to fade the public and game total Over on second look is inflated due to pitcher situation, Dallas did take the game Under after his implosion 7/21 @Arizona and Jackson coming off Under 8 in multi homer game is a situational Under on a rising Total after going Under a lower total, 8, in previous game. Both play goes against the grain and Pubic fade angle must hold 75 to 79% wager on Washington. There is also an underlying trend with Houston being +160 dog  coming off a game scoring less than 3 runs and their starter allowing more than 5 runs in previous start, the Astros are 7-4 & 3 Over to 8 Under since September 2009. Watch this line as this play will go off near start time.

HOUSTON ASTROS +178 for 1 unit(L)

Game Total UNDER 8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

5-4 Nationals in extra inning.

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