Saturday, September 29, 2012

MLB Saturday

95-64 +38,705

 Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
  This is the game of No#4 and 5 in AL Central. Not much attention on this match up there's other games with urgency more importance. I see most players have passed on this one, but if you had to gauge it Cleveland at home, winning 2 straight from Kansas, gets the vote, the public vote. Jeanmar Gomez will take the mound for the Tribe and he is a ongoing project. Back from the pen to fill the rotation he is good on relief, but has given up tons as a starter. Jake Odorizzi debut in that 15-4 loss against Cleveland responsible for 3 of those runs going 5 innings and took the loss. You can't really hold Jake to that one sided game. Fading Jeanmar and the Tribe tonight. Kansas City to stop the bleeding and 3 straight wins for Cleveland has come to a peak.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS +119 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, September 28, 2012

MLB Friday

95-63 +39,795

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
The Ballpark at Arlington has produced 49-29 record for Texas. The Rangers just split the series with Oakland 2-2 and today welcome the Angels with Jered Weaver taking the mound. He has been outstanding with the Angels going 22-6 by far the biggest money winner in Angels rotation. Ryan Dempster going for Texas is the no#2 money pitcher in the Ranger's rotation. He was killed just 2 starts ago against Weaver and the Angels, but that seems to be an anomaly. Ryan regained form in last start against Seattle getting a quality win. These two pitchers able to go through 7 innings plus on any given start shutting down their opponent yet the Total have typically under estimated the game. We have this one holding at 9 with money slightly Under. Both pitchers come into this spot with room to improve and this one should go Under.

Game Total UNDER 9 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

Thursday, September 27, 2012

MLB Thursday

95-62 +41,085

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays will have a say in the out come of AL East. They've already split the series against the O's and now they welcome New York Yankees starting Ivan Nova back at Rogers Center in Toronto. The problem is the two games they won at Baltimore were the only 2 games they won in their 10 game road trip. Toronto even failed against two sub .500 teams prior to their long road trip, against Seattle and Boston, and as much as a road trip bounce back game should come into consideration. There is an stronger angle with Toronto coming off a loss giving up double digit runs which is a absolute fade against the Blue Birds. Take Super Nova on the road and fade Toronto on their revenge play.

NEW YORK YANKEES at -129 for 1 unit(L) 

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

MLB Wednesday

95-62 +39,955

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Back to Petco for more Dodgers Padres. Today L.A. will start Aaron Harang 9-10 with the Dodgers recording 12-17. He has yet to win in September and the Dodgers have lost 5 straight Harang starts. However Aaron performs much better on the road and though he's not pitching deep the runs are holding 3 or less. Padres Clayton Richards has been winning games 5 out of last 6 with Padres winning all 6, but the hits are mounting and today the balls may get through. Looking for the Dodgers to take this at Petco Park.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS +113 for 1 unit(W)
Picked up the Dodgers at their best price and we are over 40K  yeah baby!

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

MLB Tuesday

94-62 +38,955

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
The Padres are winning team at home with 40-35 record. That also holds true to San Diego starter today Edinson Volquez splitting 30 starts 15 away 15 at home and while his road ERA is 5.60 at home it's 3.11  much better 9 quality starts with 1.26 WHIP. San Diego returning from 2-4 road trip will be happy to be back at Petco Park. The visiting Dodgers are still clinging to their playoffs hope sending Josh Beckett to the mound. His last start Beckett pitched over 7 innings though getting a ND the Dodgers got the win at Washington. Beckett has shown flashes of his past, but he only has 2 quality starts in last 7 with Dodgers going 2-7. His road record is 3-8 with 5.07 ERA and 1.37 WHIP making Padres home Under dog a tempting play. However both of these pitchers are in a spot to improve. Looking for tough scoring game. 

Game Total UNDER7 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
1-2 Padres and the game is Under.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

MLB Sunday

93-61 +38,965

We have been rocking the bases as of late, for the last week to be exact, the blog has gone 7 out of 7 since last Saturday and looking forward to upcoming post season. Sunday day games are the games we enjoy. Going out to Flushing Meadows in Queens for the Marlins at N.Y. Mets

Miami Marlins at N.Y. Mets
Ricky Nolasco for the Marlins is 12-12 the Fish has gone 14-15 with Ricky on the mound. He is looking strong in last 4 starts going 3-0 with 1.20 ERA and what's been consistent is grounders to fly ball ratio working around 1.80 that's working out to 13 or 14 pitches per inning. Nolasco should improve here. The New York Mets will send Chris Young 4-8, but also looking better of late. He's pitched 2 quality game losses and 1 win in September. That win was at Miami pitching 5 innings of 1 run game to take it 5-1 marking 4 straight wins against Miami.The Mets have won 6 straight against Miami now.  However Young is not a good bet at Citi Field and his performance may decline today. No sweep in New York taking the Fish to stop the slide.

MIAMI MARLINS -101 for 1 unit(L)

Game Total UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 today. Final score 1-2 NY

Saturday, September 22, 2012

MLB Saturday

92-61 +37,965

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Pat Corbin is a 50% quality, 50% winner meaning he's holding his own in his rookie season. Arizona crushed Drew Pomerantz in 3 innings, Alex White got chased giving up 5 runs in 15-5 easily defeating Colorado. There is little doubt with Arizona in this second game. However Colorado will send their best pitcher in late season Jhoulys Chacin. He is lacking wins, but the Rockies are coming up shy of a run in last 3 starts, 2 losses and 1 ND, while giving up less then 2 runs 5 out of last 6 games. Jim Tracy ball has been risky in late inning so going with the first 5 innings of this match up.

First 5 Innings -104 for 1 unit(W)

Private members also got OVER 10.5 on this game!

MLB Sunday

96-64 +39,895

Hello gang. Looks like another nice Sunday for Baseball. Took a hard fought game last night and for those who did not follow the game, it went down to the wire. Lucky or good I will take it.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
So the Giants are already in the Post Season race and the Padres are ready for off season. The Giants are tough on the road, 44-33 which is better than San Diego home record, and they are winning, 7 out of last 10,  The Padres were skidding 4 losses in a row until Stultz went 8 innings for last night's win. Today the Pads send Edinson Volquez 11-11with 4.13 ERA who is coming off 7 innings 6 hit shut out ball against the Dodgers, but as the record indicates he has his ups and downs. The Giants will go with Tim Lincecum 10-15 with 5.15 ERA who was rattled in last start against Arizona, 4 innings 5 hits 7 runs and 4 walks, but he was pitching quality games up to that point, 4 quality starts in a row, and should recover at pitcher friendly Petco.
Despite the Giants position to preserve their players for post season and San Diego's position to win it out at home especially against the division winner the play is on San Francisco with Lincecum in a spot to improve and Volquez in a spot to decline. The line has also moved in opposite direction to my advantage.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +110 for 1 unit

Thursday, September 20, 2012

MLB Friday

90-61 +35,635

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Here we go boys and girls this series knotted up one each. We have Zach Greinke for the home Angels against visiting Yu Darvish for the Rangers.Greinke has been pitching quality games 5 out of last 7 with L.A. going 5-2 he has not lost since 8/19 against Tampa. He is coming off a ND team loss, but pitched 8.3 innings of quality ball. Zach is in a spot to decline from his last game still the runs may come in low. Yu Darvish is 5-7 on the road and Texas is 7-7, but he too has been pitching quality games, 6 out of last 7, looking strong in September. As the saying goes do not chase the line play against it.

TEXAS RANGER +133 for 1 unit(W)

Game Total UNDER 7.5 at -120 for 1 unit(W)

Delivering side & total for 2-0 day! Add another 2.33 to the piggy.      

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

MLB Tuesday

89-61 +34,625

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
It's one of those contender against a spoiler game and these are dangerous as it can be KC has matched up well against the White Sox all season. Luke Hochevar 8-13 has yet to pitch a quality game in September although the Royals put up 10 runs at Minnesota to notch a win 10-5 on Sept. 12th. Luke's game is hard to say if it'll improve I think it'll stay around 6 innings of work 3 or 4 runs. He walked 4 last time maybe that number will go down, but he gave up no long ball so there's a good chance of a HR today. Chicago's Gavin Floyd is a home pitcher and he has not done well on the road, but the White Sox are on winning track. Gavin's ND's are coming out roses. the White Sox 4 out of last 5 when Floyd starts and he has been winning the tight lines. Going with Chicago as a very slight Under dog.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +101 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, September 17, 2012

MLB Monday

88-61 +33,275

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
Hector Noesi has been piling losses 2-11 with Mariners 5-12 and 5 losses in a row. He should of won at least one of the last 3 games, that's how the odds makers saw it, but he dropped all three with tight line. Noesi in a spot to improve for a quality start however I'll go against the Mariners on their return to Safeco with Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES RUN LINE -1.5 at +135 for 1 unit(W)
Didn't it rock your world?

Saturday, September 15, 2012

MLB Saturday

86-61 +30,275

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
The Rangers are leading AL West while Seattle is at the bottom of West. The Rangers have taken the first game 9-3 Texas with best home record in AL will take Jason Vargas on this second game of the series going with Scott Feldman. As much as it's obvious how tall this order is for Seattle this game was played out back in May when Feldman was crushed by the Mariners at home. Don't forget we don't follow winning teams we follow teams making money and Texas in contrast to Seattle does not make much money. I like Seattle in Texas they have played them well. Even yesterday's game was not so one sided until the 7 run 8th inning. Take the value with Seattle and Vargas. Take this game to go Over 9.5

Game Total OVER 9.5 at +110 for 1 unit(W)

SEATTLE MARINERS +190 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, September 14, 2012

MLB Friday

85-61 +29,275

S.F. Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants are inching closer to the top of NL West. Matt Cain going for the Giants is 13-5 very good on the road 7-2 and S.F. has won 10 of his 15 road starts. Opposing home pitcher is Tyler Skaggs with 20 innings pitched in 4 starts. He got banged around in his last start at San Diego, but should be better at home. 
Keep in mind Skaggs is likely to improve, but with 20 innings under his belt the pitching angle is better judged by Matt Cain's projection.  What stands above his team's road win is the Over trend displayed in this spot. Cain a quality pitcher is absolute Over on the road at 10-5 in opposing contrast to his home games . Will this hold true today? There are interesting stat to note which is Cain's average pitches per inning from Aug. 11th has steadily climbed from 12.3 to 18.2 in Sept.2nd, 4 road games, and dropped abruptly on Sept. 8th back at home to 14. This abrupt change in pitches per inning is most likely to rise back on the road in Arizona. What this mean is pitches above 14 per inning is in danger of allowing runs and or short outing. The high Total with Cain on the mound is justifiable. The trick is to play the angle on Cain and take the risk away from the bull pen. Play the First 5 innings.

Game Total OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Wow full game goes Under bucking the trend, but we win!

Thursday, September 13, 2012

MLB Thursday

85-59 +31,435

Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels
Sorry folks didn't have time for a write up this morning. 

OAKLAND A's at +136 for 1 unit(L)

Both teams were putting up zero's, but the Angels exploded in the 7th.

We have a rare double wager on tonight's late game.

St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Are you getting that sinking feeling in L.A.? The Dodgers have 3 losses in a row it's 6 losses out of last 7. The fans maybe worried, but St Louis has done just the same 6 losses out of last 7. Lance Lynn is back filling in for Jake Westbrook. He was removed from the rotation back in Aug, but his record stands at 13-5 with the Cards going 17-8 the problem is he lost a lot of mustard quality starts declined and runs are coming in. Lynn's game has under performed on the road. Josh Beckett looking much better as a Dodger will look to snap the Dodgers skid. Beckett in a spot to improve and Dodgers are the play.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS -116 for 1 unit(L)

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

MLB Wednesday

83-59 +29,225

Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The battle continues in AL West with Texas walking away on top the A's and the Angels will fight their fight to keep their respective position alive. After the Angels swept Oakland in Oakland the A's are looking to pay back the favor. It will be Ervin Santana getting in the way of Oakland tonight. Santana is not the same pitcher who started this season with 6 straight losses. Ervin 2-1 in August with the Angels winning 4 out of 5 and winning both September games. He will be a force to be dealt with as his game is consistent and coming off a 10 strike out game. Ervin should be good for another quality start against AJ Griffin 5-0 Oakland phenom. Griffin is quality and top money pitcher for Oakland. No other pitcher in the A's staff is hotter and Griffin is sporting better number on the road. He comes into this game in a spot to improve. Yes, he only gave up 1 run, but still under performed his innings percentage and I expect him to go deeper. This game is absolutely Under and taking the better pitcher in AJ Griffin with plus money.

OAKLAND A's at +116 for 1 unit(W)

Game Total UNDER 8 at +105 for 1 unit(W)

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

MLB Tuesday

82-59 +28,195

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Here is a interesting match with Tim Hudson going for the visiting Braves. Hudson 14.5 is a force on the mound with Braves taking 18-6 record. He is good home and away, but slightly stronger on the road. Tim is coming off a 6 innings no run game against Colorado. I look for Hudson's performance to decline today in Miller park.  The Brewers have won 7  of last 10 and they are slight favorites as visitors. However the Brewers at home will be a test to be seen. Marco Estrada maybe 2-6 with 112.2 innings of work, Milwaukee losing 10-15, the Brewers still hold a winning record at home 7-6 and Marco is getting better. He's in a spot today to improve. It's going to be a baseball kind of day at Miller Park and the Brewer will not be denied.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS at +103 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, September 10, 2012

MLB Monday

82-58 +29,275

St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
You know what the Padres have done? they went over .500 at home 35-34 coming off a home series win against Arizona. Quite impressive considering their start . They have won two series in a row and as the record indicates they are tough at home. Add Eric Stults to today's start and San Diego looks pretty strong. Stults pitching quality games, beat  LA ace Kershaw  and the Dodgers in last start as +200 road dog, blanked Atlanta before that. Winner of 4 out of 6 and Padres are 5-1 in his start. St Louis is in the hunt, 2nd in NL Central 8.5 behind the Reds, and window of opportunity is quickly closing. Jamie Garcia taking the ball for the Red Birds coming off a quality win, but alternating quality games. He does not fair well on the road and so is the Cardinals at 32-36. Today's line has quickly narrowed, but I think the San Diego play is over done, Stults is pitching good games, but I think he's weaker at home and not relying on Garcia to shoulder the game, but he does have a win over San Diego and matches well against NL West. St Louis 19-10 against the West and dominates San Diego. Take the slight favorite St Louis on the road. 

ST LOUIS CARDINALS at -108 for 1 unit(L)

Saturday, September 08, 2012

MLB Saturday

82-58 +29,275

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
We have two winning pitchers on the mound with Justin Verlander for Detroit and CJ Wilson for L.A. The Tigers pitcher Verlander is 13-7 his ND's are split 4-4 coming off a quality win against Chicago. His road starts are lacking 6-5 with inflated ERA and WHIP making Detroit at Angels home turf not so convincing as a dog. CJ Wilson 11-9 has better benefit of run support his ND's are 6-3, but the problem is Wilson being hittable as of late. This game in question is Over waiting to happen. Looking for the runs to build up.

Game Total OVER 7 at -115 fir 1 unit(Push)
Did you guys see that, Prince Fielder robbed of a home run to end the game 6-1 Angels.

Thursday, September 06, 2012

MLB Thursday

82-58 +29,275

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
Scott Feldman up for Texas he has not been pitching well, 1 quality start in last 5 all Texas losers, looking to bounce back in KC. The Royals will go with Luke Hochevar got shelled in 1.2 innings of work. Both pitchers with losing record yet the UNDER has been 4 out of 5 for Luke and Scott is 9 out of 10. The strong Under trend had me leading that way, but this number seems a bit low and it dropped 0.5 making the Over the attractive choice. That Under trend line looks to break and that's what the play is.

Game Total OVER 9 at -122 for 1 unit(Push) 
You know when it went to 4-4 there was plenty of time to push it Over and we couldn't lose. It happens.

Tuesday, September 04, 2012

MLB Tuesday

82-57 +30,275

Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins
The Brew crew did the quick 3 game home stand against Pittsburgh promptly taking all three games and then dropped the first game away at Miami. Here we are with game two with Shaun Marcum coming off a ND loss at Chicago. He does not fair well on the road the Brewers have lost his last 3 starts all on the road. It's not the quality of his starts he can very well bounce back, but Miami Marlins matches well. They've split the last meet in Milwaukee losers coming only by a run. Sound win yesterday sending Fiers out in 3 innings.
Marlin money has been rising although the majority public is on Milwaukee. Take Miami as a home dog  fading Milwaukee and Marcum on the road.

MIAMI MARLINS at +111 for 1 unit(L)

Sunday, September 02, 2012

MLB Sunday

80-57 +27,920

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
This game will feature NY losing pitcher Chris Young, 3-7 with NY 4-11, going against Mark Buehrie 12-11 with Miami 13-13 logged twice the innings as Young with 166 coming in hot. Buehrie has 3 winners in a row declining ERA and WHIP. Mark pitching this season Miami winners have come in successions he only has one isolated win all the rest are clustered.  He has yet to lose the 4th game in a row and facing Chris Young looks like a good thing for Buehrie  and the Marlins. Chris Young coming off a non quality rare Mets win has given up 5 runs or more 4 times out of last 10, 6 recorded losses and Mets have lost 8 out 10. But if there is chance for the Mets with Chris it's more likely on the road. Young is also in a bounce back spot after allowing 5 runs or more and Mets are playing good ball winning 6 out of last 7. Looking for Mark Buehrie to take a step back. after pitching less then 6 innings. Taking the road dog with New York.

NEW YORK METS + 133 for 1 unit(W)
*Mets Alternate Run Line -1.5 at +205 for 0.5 units(W)
Mets 5-1 that's +2.355 unit gain for the day.  

Saturday, September 01, 2012

MLB Saturday

80-56 +29,020

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
You know the Brew crew is showing strength at 8-2 for last 10 games. Their true color is the home blue reminiscent of 2011 Brewers which was the best home team in baseball at 57-24 this team has been playing pretty tough at home 38-29. Had a 9 game home winning streak from July 30th to Aug. 17th and went 5-2 in their recent road trip which included winning the Pittsburgh series 2-1. The Pirates have lost the first game of this series with Karstens getting lifted in the first. AJ Burnett getting the call for game 2 has strung 4 non quality games with the Pirates going 1-3. He should improve here, but Milwaukee bats have been hot I don't know if AJ can contain them. Marco Estrada for Milwaukee has back to back win and 3 straight wins for Milwaukee I'd look for him to decline a bit here and give up few runs. My expectation is for one or both of these pitchers to come out with a ND and both teams to put up some runs. Over 8 runs to be exact. 

Game Total OVER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(L)