Friday, September 14, 2012

MLB Friday

85-61 +29,275

S.F. Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants are inching closer to the top of NL West. Matt Cain going for the Giants is 13-5 very good on the road 7-2 and S.F. has won 10 of his 15 road starts. Opposing home pitcher is Tyler Skaggs with 20 innings pitched in 4 starts. He got banged around in his last start at San Diego, but should be better at home. 
Keep in mind Skaggs is likely to improve, but with 20 innings under his belt the pitching angle is better judged by Matt Cain's projection.  What stands above his team's road win is the Over trend displayed in this spot. Cain a quality pitcher is absolute Over on the road at 10-5 in opposing contrast to his home games . Will this hold true today? There are interesting stat to note which is Cain's average pitches per inning from Aug. 11th has steadily climbed from 12.3 to 18.2 in Sept.2nd, 4 road games, and dropped abruptly on Sept. 8th back at home to 14. This abrupt change in pitches per inning is most likely to rise back on the road in Arizona. What this mean is pitches above 14 per inning is in danger of allowing runs and or short outing. The high Total with Cain on the mound is justifiable. The trick is to play the angle on Cain and take the risk away from the bull pen. Play the First 5 innings.

Game Total OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Wow full game goes Under bucking the trend, but we win!

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