Monday, October 29, 2012

MLB Season 2012 is done

Giants win the World Series. Just like 20 of the 23 teams that lost 3 straight games Detroit Tigers make it 21 out of 24 teams to get swept. Thanks for following along.  It's been a great handicapping season as we have won 7-2 in post season gaining 6,720 and 98-65 regular season gaining 41,505 for total winnings of 48,225, didn't quite get to 50K, but not bad for  7 months of work. Just because baseball season is ending doesn't mean it time for vacation  Football season is under way. NHL is in holding pattern and I'll be switching over to NBA at as the hard court will kick off on Halloween.
Looking forward to seeing all of you court side

How much did we make again? Cool 48,225 match sticks !

Saturday, October 27, 2012

World Series Game 3

I'm being selective on my plays. I liked the Tigers in game two with homeboy Fister taking  the mound, but fortunately couldn't go against the hot home team. Took a pass on that bullet and the Under was bit over priced for my taste.

Here's a thought shared by many, the Tigers down 2-0 will rebound at home, and it's a situation with 50 sampling showing 0-2 team winning 27 out of 50. Detroit may have been slow to warm up, but in this spot they better heat up fast or else they may end up like the 23 teams that lost game 3, 20 out of 23 got swept. However out of 27 winners majority took the series to 6 games. Desperation is a motivator and we've seen plenty of those in this year's playoff, but anticipated win is a dangerous thing. The way I see this game or the sequence of games, after Zito's game 1 win was Detroit winning with Fister pitching quality in low scoring game which did not go Tiger's way,  leading to Ryan Vogelsong  and Anibal Sanchez. Both pitchers are having strong post season, but as larger sample show Ryan's performance drops away from the Bay and Anibal coming into a decline spot. Despite Anibal's knowledge of the Giants from his NL days, his numbers against them are good, I fade him after coming off a game giving up no runs. If the situation holds true this game will go Over 7. The Giants go Over away better than 62% clip and back the Giants based on pitchers money standings. Vogelsong second in money with S.F. rotation while Sanchez is a money losing pitcher at the bottom of the Detroit rotation.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +140 for 1 unit(W)
Game Total OVER 7 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
1-1 +0.30 units
Funny how these games turn out. I should of lost the side and won the Total, but that's baseball.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

World Series Game 1

It's come down to these two teams and looking at it from a wagering perspective the odds for the series is the Giants +150 and the Tigers -170. Even with the magic of Zito and the surging Giants at home game 1 is Giants +156 to Tigers -166 with Justin Verlander. If you stumbled upon MLB in it's final series and read all the baseball talk Justin is invincible and the Giants will not stand in the way of Detroit Tigers championship.
I'd fade that thought. Justin Verlander has been good of a pitcher as can be in post season, but his woes have come on the road. His sequence of extended quality starts doesn't have much higher to go meaning performance decline is inevitable. Barry Zito has history of disappointments and it's as though his performance is not registering like an anomaly waiting to return to mediocrity. The Giants have fed off that same sentiment throughout the post season and I will play the home dog.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +156 for 1 unit(W)
Hows that for rockin start of World Series game ONE! Yeah Kung Fu Panda! Zito quality!

Sunday, October 14, 2012

MLB Sunday

Coming off a very exciting finish taking the Over in bottom of 9th in dramatic post season fashion. We're back in business for another game in Bronx.

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
We bucked the Under trend yesterday, but it was not easy. The total has let off the down ward trend and come back to a reasonable number. Still it's a low number between two power teams capable of putting up crooked numbers. The difference will be Hiroki Kuroda, high quality home pitchers, for the Yankees going against Anibal Sanchez, high quality road pitcher, and these two pitchers have excelled in matching up Under.
The trend still moving Under though not as strong as yesterday. Backing the game to stay below.

Game Total UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Saturday, October 13, 2012

MLB Saturday

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
ALSC series Tigers are peaking at the right time and this is the team everyone was expecting the whole season. New York battled the tenacious Baltimore team and won in 5 games. It was some battle indeed and it may have taken quite a bit out of the star studded Yankees making this a interesting first game. Doug Fister taking the ball for the Tigers. He is a middle of the pack, bit on the red in money, pitcher coming off a quality win against Oakland. He has been very good in September and October with only 2 non quality losses. He is a home pitcher and road record is 4-7 with higher ERA and WHIP. New York will send veteran Andy Pettite who is also an middle of the pack pitcher, but on plus side of money. He got little run support in recent two losses, but normally gets healthy dose of runs. Andy 6-1 at home despite going 7 innings only once in last 6 starts. He is also trending Under at home 1 over to 6 under and New York stadium games going Under has been the case for many games this season. However the line has come down to 7.5 which is really low here. One of the key fact of New York Under trend was backed by the high total, but that's not the case today. Looking for this one to buck the trend.

Game Total OVER 7.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Baseball Gods showing me some love! 4 run 9th puts this one Over 6-4 Tigers.

Monday, October 08, 2012

MLB Monday

Washington Nationals at St Louis Cardinals
Looking around getting a feel for this game and St Louis at home is the perception by the majority. The Cards have not lost a back to back since mid September, their strength is at home, these two teams have matched up 24-8 Cardinals in last 32 game played in St Louis. However this year has favored Washington and the play is to follow the money team Washington. Zimmermann has been quality and though with extended wins will be entering uncharted territory he has been bank. Jamie Garcia is money loser in St Louis rotation. He is stronger at home, but not by much. Taking the Nationals.


Sunday, October 07, 2012

MLB Sunday

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
It's feeling like October baseball. C.C. Sabathia on the hill for the Yankees going against Jason Hammel coming off a DL for Baltimore. Both pitchers have been money however Jason has not pitched in a month. He says he's not concerned with his knee and the O's are playing good ball so we'll track his play. Both of these teams have played Under for their season and games are expected to get tighter in October, but today's line has dropped quite a bit from the opening 8.5 to 7.5 and games these two teams played in New York has favored Under, but Camden has been Over. Hammel trends Over at home 6-3 while Sabathia is Over 11-3 away. Taking the game to go Over in Camden Yards.

Game Total OVER 7.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
Had you guys sweating it out all the way to the 9th inning. Have no fear it ain't over till it's over.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

MLB Saturday

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
This is a match up of similar teams. The Reds are 47-34 away and the Giants are 48-33 at home. The Reds with pitcher Johnny Queto on the mound are 22-11 and the Giants with Matt Cain 21-11. Queto 2.78 ERA, Cain 2.79 ERA and though S.F. Giants are going up in price as the betting window is near close the take here is the Reds. Cincinnati have played well against the Giants this season beating Cain twice. AT&T park has been neutralized. Taking the Reds and playing the reverse run line.

CINCINNATI REDS +115 for 1 unit(W)
CINCINNATI REDS -1.5 rRL +175 for 1 unit(W)
Post season grip! 2-0 +2,900

Friday, October 05, 2012

MLB Friday

TGIF people.

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Darvish has made a point as a Major Leaguer and he can very well perform at this level plus some. However Texas Ranger reeling and now in the corner. Can they pull this one out at the Ballpark in Arlington? As a heavy favorite the wagering public says "Yes" But in a close game, a tight game, Baltimore has done it timeafter time. Lefty Joe Saunders will help guide the Birds in this sure to be exciting match up. Backing the O's as the big dog

Baltimore Orioles +187 for 1 unit(W) 

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

MLB Wednesday

97-65 +40,505

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
This is another under the radar type of game. Not much attention two pitchers with little fan fare. Not much to gauge the pitching range so little to predict the direction of their performance. However I would give this one to Jeremy Hefner with 86 innings under his belt. He doesn't have much of quality starts and he's been banged around, but he did go 7 innings of 3 hit no run game with 7 punch outs. I don't think he will exceed that today, but he did string 2 quality games the last time, he followed an 8 innings 1 run game against Houston with 6 inning 2 run game at Miami, both games winners. Maimi Marlins starter Tom Koehler, from what I see so far, is a road pitcher and he labored in last 2 relief appearances, one of them against the Mets, and I expect more of same. The Marlins struggle against losing teams to continue as the pick today is New York Metropolitans to roll.

NEW YORK METS +100 for 1 unit(W)

This concludes 2012 regular season MLB picks. Just about equaled Washington Nationals win & loss record and made more money than Oakland Athletics. Don't go away Post Season coming up!

SEASON RECORD 98 wins & 65 losses
Money +41,505 

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

MLB Tuesday

96-65 +38,895

S.F. Giants at L.A. Dodgers
Love the rivalry L.A. hanging by the skin of their necks. The game today with L.A. season on the line at the Chavez Ravine the wagering public has that "No way will the Dodgers lose today" feel. The line has risen towards the Dodgers all morning even though the line was already pushing Dodgers at the Open! There is absolutely no value in taking the Dodgers. Not in money line or run line as this game promises to be close most likely a one run difference. I think Zito has risen in late season while Capuano has declined and as much as L.A. wants this game it doesn't make it so. Going against the climbing line with San Francisco Giants at a good size dog.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +161 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, October 01, 2012

MLB Monday

96-64 +39,895

Had some problem with "MLB Sunday" I did have a winner with S.F. Giants, but the write up did not post as scheduled. It was most likely my error. Hope to make it up today.

Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
St Louis is magic number 2 away from getting into the post season and they are making a charge. Just won the Nationals series to open at home and those two wins were crushing 12-2 & 10-4. That's against the top team from NL East, but the Cardinals urgency combined with offensive outburst has increased the price as a favorite maybe much higher than where it should be. Jaime Garcia pitching for the Cardinals is in a spot to decline as Bronson Arroyo is in a spot to improve. The Red are looking to take the top seed in National League and they're not laying down here.

CINCINNATI REDS +150 for 1 unit(L)