Wednesday, October 26, 2005

MLB 2005 Season is Done

It was a great Major League Baseball season and I'm sad to see it go.
Chicago must be hopping and glad for them.
This might of been the last time for Roger Clemens, he will always be one of the greats. Biggio and Bagwell, how long they waited and how much longer can they wait? Brad Lidge, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt as nasty as they are.....
Morgan Ensberg, where did your swing go? Lance Berkman, not enough.

Contreras, Buehrle, Garland, Garcia, what a rotation to go down in World Series history. Podsednik, terrific table setter. Dye, quietly killing the opponents.
Konerko, the big gun. AJ, always in the middle of something jinxing the opponents.

I know Football is in full swing and that's where most of the US funds are trading, but I will be analyzing NBA & NHL so please do drop in for a visit

I hope everybody is in the Black.
Thanks for your support and comments.

Week #10 Wrap Up plus World Series.

10/17 STL/HOU UNDER 3.5 FIRST 5 INN +109(W)
.....................1-0 +1.09 units

10/18 NO GAME

10/19 ARB PLAY.
HOU ML +142(W)
IN GAME: STL +190(L)
IN GAME: STL +227(L)
............................2-2 +0.83

World Series Game#1
HOU -0.5 FIRST 5 INN +166(L)
HOU ML +126(L)
............................0-4 -4.27 units

World Series Game#2
....................1-0 +1.00 unit

World Series Game#3
CWS ML +169(W)
IN GAME: CWS +800(W)
IN GAME: HOU +168(L)
IN GAME: HOU +178 for 0.5 unit(L)
IN GAME: HOU +252 for 0.5 unit(L)
.......................2-4 +6.49 units

World Series Game#4
........................1-0 +1.00 unit

Including the In-Game and Arb plays the win loss record is backwards, but we're looking for gains nothing else.

................7-9 +6.14 units

Week (9) 7-3 +3.80
Week (8) 5-2-1 +4.00
Week (7) 5-6 +0.88
Week (6) 8-4 +5.88
Week (5) 4-5 +0.84
Week (4) 14-4 +23.17
Week (3) 11-13-1 +3.585
Week (2) 11-7 +2.95
Week (1) 12-8-1 +9.885

10 weeks of solid profit.
Incase your wondering why I only have 10 weeks of MLB? That's when I decided to start the blog there was no planning.

See you all in cyberspace.

World Series Game 4

My thoughts on today's game. With the World Series on the line road warrior Freddy "G" going against Brandon "Give me the Ball at Home" Backe.
After a long game, 5 hours 41 minutes longest World Series game record, what woud be the angle on this game? I wouldn't say such a long game is exhausting for the players, but I would say it is draining and it will be a factor today.
Who will be the fresh player out of the bunch? The starting pitchers.
Roof open or closed my take today.


Knocked in the last play of the season.
Cheers to the boys, Batis and Betcrime!

Monday, October 24, 2005

World Series Game 3

Game's back in Houston, you know the roof will be closed and loud.
I think Oswalt is top of his class when it comes to attacking the batters.
I like the home team, but I'll look to capture the value in the middle.

CWS +169 (W)

White Sox money has improved to +172, but that's ok we'll leave that alone and wait for In-Game plays.

For pure speculation on this game I think Minute Maid park with baseball friendly conditions will do wonders for pitching and defense.
I think this will be a tight one.


Open roof at Minute Maid, someone heavy on Over in Texas?
1-0 Houston leading bottom of 2nd. Watch the line on CWS In-Game.

OK, I got CWS +800 (W) bottom 4th.

Now waiting for 5th to end to hedge with Astros.

Astros +160 for 1.5 units (L) May add to this as game moves on.

HOUSTON +178 for 0.5 units (L) (top 7th)

HOUSTON +252 for 0.5 units (L) (top 8th)

Whooa, Top of the 9th all tied up and I'm locked in on both sides.
Sox is the bigger catch.

The final account looks like this:
CWS ML ....1.69 units
HOU/CWS U3.5... -1.00 unit
CWS ML ... 8.00 units
HOU ML ... -1.50 units
HOU ML ... -0.5 units
HOU ML ... -0.5 units
Total Gain +6.49 units

See ya later.

Sunday, October 23, 2005

World Series Game 2

South siders pitchers continue to roll. Today's conditions will test the defense and although the moisture in the air will slow the ball, the wind will help the long ball. Pettitte has struggled at the Cell.


Today's game was excellent for "Live In-Game" as leads switched places.
I just can't commit to posting the Live plays the windows are too short.
If you play, keep in mind to take the odds and not give them as a general rule.
The Odds will fluctuate, look ahead of the batting order and relief pitchers in the pen. Remember you are positioning with game expiration closing in.

Saturday, October 22, 2005

World Series 2005

Here we are, these are the teams that will fight for the crown.
So the TV ratings are expected to be lower than last year and football is taking in all the money action. That's OK, the true fans and sharps will be on this game.
Love this pitching match up, can't wait, I think the first half total will be contained. If I need a pitcher to set the tone in a big game .............................. I'm backing Clemens.


HOU -0.5 FIST 5 INNINGS +166(L)

HOU ML +126(L)


I hedged the side, but still a losing day. So many chances....not good enough. I'll be Back.

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Arbitrage NLCS Game 6 Play

Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a state of imbalance between two or more markets, a combination of matching lines are struck that exploit the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices.

I'm going to touch on this subject without much explanation.
There are P2P exchanges, but if you have a Pinny account you may have noticed "MLB Live" addition to your MLB wager selections.
This play will be active during the game and positions will be taken between innings. I will play this selection with the goal of capturing the profit in game.

Pre-game position:
HOU ML +142 (W)

Stand by your computers at game time.

I'm back. Nothing happening unless you feel the Over. Value dropped on Houston. See what happens.

Top of 3rd Astros on board. ....Oooops 2 nothing now.
I will play the Cards in the middle of this inning.

Got Cards +190
You may want to leave some room to hit them again on higher odds.

2nd hit. Cards +227

Lane clears the wall. I think that's enough on Cards.
Nothing is a lock except when your on both sides as Under dogs.

Mulder knocked out in 4 2/3 innings. Keep your eyes on the Totals line.

Total is not showing me any value. I'm passing.

Enjoy the rest of the game.

Astros win! Congrats BetCrime on the Big Dog NL Champs.
Nice Under call Batis.

See you back for the World Series.

Almost forgot todays profit.
2-2 *hedged play gain +0.83 units. The play itself was not as interesting as I thought, would of been better off just letting the play ride.

Monday, October 17, 2005

Pettitte vs Carpenter

You know the Sharps are coming in on the low total backing the Over.
I understand the Over thinking with 7.5 dropping to 7, looking at both pitchers in recent games Over's have cashed, but if there was a theme for today's game it is pitching. You got to respect them Sharps though.


That was close, got it with the hook. The game did go Over.
What a ending. BetCrimes holding huge odds on Houston NLSC win, Your celebration will have to wait.

Next game is Oct. 19th back to St Lou so we have a day to chew on this one.

Sunday, October 16, 2005

Week Nine Wrap Up

I didn't do a proper week 8 wrap up, it's in the Yanks do or die post, but I'll do it right today. I must say I should of posted the full kill on Angels today instead of the homer first half pick with some half baked hope of Angels surviving.

Sun. 10/16

Sat. 10/15

HOU ML -127 (W)

Fri. 10/14
Buy the -0.5 run OVER 3.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -130 (W)

No Plays Thursday 10/13

Wed. 10/12

HOU/STL OVER 7 -116 (W)
HOU +0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +100 (L)

Tue. 10/11

LAA +0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +117 (W)

Mon. 10/10

7-3 +3.80 units

I've posted another winning week, but feeling blue. Must be autum, kind of sad time of year.

ALCS Angels under the Gun

I love the manager for both of these teams. There is similar dynamics and methodical approach to their game. This is must win for the Angels with Byrd on the mound and the Halos are the Home Underdog today. Angels are not only suspect at bat, all the calls are going against them.
Contreras is pitching his best game since joining MLB.
I question if Angels have what it takes to overcome this game today.


Wow, 2 run rally in the bottom of the 5th to take away my win.
Lets hope Angels will hold on and win.
0-1 -1.23 units

After moosing my first half play Angels go on to blow the game.
Good thing I played the CWS "Live" in game. I was hedging both sides with huge plus money, but that's a topic by itself.
Be back later will this week's wrap.

Friday, October 14, 2005

Red Birds take on Rocket at Minute maid

Dogs are cashing this post season and that tells me the line makers have been on the wrong side. Expecting correction with Rocket as home fav today.

HOU ML -127 (W)

" Fish don’t fry in the kitchen Beans don’t burn on the grill.
Took a whole lotta tryin’ Just to get up that hill.
Now we’re up in the big leagues Gettin’ our turn at bat.

As long as we live, it’s you and me baby There ain’t nothin wrong with that." Sing along now.
"We're movin' on up......"

Comon' now it's Saturday and I've knocked down both sides.
2-0 +2.00 units

ALCS Game #3

The typical take on today's game is.... Angels rested and fired up with a game they gave away in Chicago. John Lackey has whipped these White Sox and Garland is not only rusty but the Halo has already knocked him around.
That maybe so, but what I see is a bucking trend of low scoring pitchers battle.
Anticipation is pushing down the total which is so dangerous to follow.
Yes the trends are all pointing to the Under making it a nasty pitfall.

Buy the -0.5 run OVER 3.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -130 (W)

Did not need the -0.5. Easy Over to take this one.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Thursday, October 13, 2005

No Plays Today

I'll pass today. Maybe the boys will have some advise.
I will follow the puck today. All are welcome to check out the NHL blog.

BetCrimes must be happy with 1-1 series going back to Houston.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005


The Cards have been beating up on Astros, 11-5 this season, and today will send their 22 game winner Carpenter to the mound. For the visiting Astros, red hot Pettitte. Both pitchers are very good, but these low Total, which has worked traditionally, is not coming Under. I think that's the case today with the low total not holding up. I like Pettitte in this spot.

HOU +0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +100 (L)

Cards continue to have their way with Houston. How about Reggie Sanders, this guy comes to play the post season. Well I did think Astros would be the one's in control or at least right along with the Red Birds in the first half so didn't get everything right.

2-1 +1.00 unit

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Angels at White Sox

Today the rested south siders will go with Jose Contreras. The big Cuban is one of the hot big game pitcher and the White Sox are licking their chops as the heavy favorite. Byrd doesn't get much notice, but the Sox knows he's not easy to beat.

LAA +0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +117 (W)

Should of taken Under 8.5 like Batis said or bought that +o.5
1-1 +0.03 units

Monday, October 10, 2005

Angels Win

Yeah Baby! Bring on the White Sox.
Told you that Under 8.5 might hold.

Game 5 Back to Anaheim

This is a hard game to get. I've done just about everything except call Arty Moreno, I'm thinking about it.
You know this is a tough speculation by every measure. I want the Angels to win, but that doesn't make it so.
To get to Colon you hit him early because he improves as the game goes on.
To get to Moose you have to be patient. Somehow I sense these batters will know exactly what their doing today. The game total set at 8.5, low total in AL, might hold. But I'll buy 0.5 points down to crack that 4 in the first 5 innings.


Unexpected turn of event, but Over cashes hard !
Angels in control.

If you like Hockey

Everybody and their best friend's grandmother is betting on football, but if you feel like dancing to a different tune for a change. Click on the title to NHL blog.

I'm still trying to find a way into todays Yanks vs Angels game 5.

Sunday, October 09, 2005

Sports Hedge Fund

Just read Mark Cuban's blog. It's nothing new that's what syndicated play is all about. It doesn't matter that he's a billionaire I think he's just another square, but I am interested to see who Mark thinks is the sharpest and the brightest in the industry. Professional cappers are notoriously tough to track and the Touts only gives you their good record. I'm sure he has his resources.

Maybe I'll post a comment on his blog and advise him to take a look at my plays.

What do you guys think?
If you click on "Sports Hedge Fund" it'll link you to Mark's blog.

Yanks Live or Die

Iron Mike Soccia going about his business doesn't seem to care about the intangibles or at least it doesn't seem to bother his game.
I think the bombers will pull this one out ,but they'll need to scratch and claw today. Chacon is good because of Posada, I expect Posada to ride his pitcher hard today. What will the Angels do in the driver's seat? Bring rock solid fundamental baseball, no mistakes. Both pens rested.


Game plays out just the way I saw it coming, might be a sign of things to come.
Week 8 post season picks are W5 - L2 - P1

I didn't post wager units, but using 1 unit for all plays total gain +4.00 units, including one side wager on NHL. I was planning to conclude the posts, but I'm back by popular demand. Not bad for a short posted play week.
My plays in MLB post season are defensive in nature.
I am starting to shift my focus to NHL and NBA.
Hope everyone had a good week.

Saturday, October 08, 2005

National League Ball

Did you see the Angels yesterday doing it to the Big Unit? In the Bronx? In the rain? Playing small ball, National League ball Mike Soccia was brought up on. But Byrd was touched and 5 run lead disappearing shows no lead is safe with the Yanks. I wish the Angels well in New York. Game is postponed.

Today I look at Petco Park in San Diego. One of the best new parks right in the middle of downtown San Diego. Parking prices are expensive.

Matt Morris will look to trump the Pads in the mediocre west, but don't underestimate Woody given his command. If the Pads are to stay alive the pitching will need to come through. Let's play National ball.


That's not national ball. Woody is crap on the mound and this wager is dead early. Looks like Lawrence is coming out.
It seems many teams are raising their OPS (Slugging Percentage + On Base Percentage) Under backers are taking hits.

Friday, October 07, 2005

Friday Looks Like Rain

If your thinking about Angels and Yanks or even the Sox Sox game. Tonight's rain adds risk to the speculation. Soxes have the better chance to get their game in.

My thoughts on Sox series. Sox will win.

Seriously now, Red Sox nation is out again hoping for return to glory. They are tough at home and this is it, they'll throw everything they got no hesitation. The whole world knows it and the moneyline has been swinging hard toward Boston.
I will fade Boston at this point. Sweep, 3 games, thanks for trying better luck next year. I'm not a Red Sox hater, I just like the play.
The public has spoken "No way, no how, not at Fenway, impossible"

I'll take CWS PK FIRST 5 INN +158 & ML +161
Isn't this fun.

Hey, I had Boston last year to win it all.

I know, this can't be happening World Champs don't get swept in the first round, that's why the pay was so sweet. Almost knocked down both sides.

Thursday, October 06, 2005

MLB Banter Continues

Give me Roger today on the short game. Two old gladiators go at this one and as many will eye the O/U 7, spot lighting the pitching, I think Astros will get 2 or 3 runs by the 6th. HOU PK FIRST HALF +122

Maybe the boys will have some thoughts.

NHL side bet LAK/PHO UNDER 6 +122 for 2 units
This price is moving the wrong way.

Atlanta and Smoltz is tough in post season. I thought Roger was going to hold the 1 run lead for at least the half. I did balance it out with the NHL winner.

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

MLB Post Season Banter

OK I'm going to be a baseball fan root for my home town Angels down by one and no more home field advantage. Hats off to the bombers for knocking around Colon with 2 outs. This is a new game with big John Lackey against tricky Wang, Angels will get to him by the 6th. Lackey all grown up, been there, done that! Our pen is still loaded and closer ready to take the ball.
I'll be there, right by the Yanks bench, jeering them.

A little wager to make it interesting.

Angels baby ! Wang was pretty good, sinker was working, fielding errors did him in. Under would of been good.

I can't believe the world champions are on the brink of elimination. What stood out to me was the poor defense, Iguchi should not of had that opportunity.

Be back later, see what the boys like today.

Sunday, October 02, 2005

Final Week Seven Wrap

Baseball season is almost over and I'd like to thank all for visiting, supporting and playing along with our selection for a profitable season. We will return with future sportsline selections with returns sure to turn heads.

Please click my profile and email me for up to date notices on our upcoming investments.

Week Seven Wrap Up.
Mon. 9/26
CWS/DET UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INN -106 for 3 units - Loss
0-1 -3.18 units

Tue. 9/27
PIT PK FIRST 5 INN +117 for 1 unit - Win
CWS -0.5 FIRST 5 INN -101 for 2 units - Loss
TAM/CLE OVER 4.5 FIRST 5 INN -109 for 2 units - Loss
TAM/CLE OVER 5 FIRST 5 INN +119 for 1 unit - Loss
1-3 -4.03 units

Wed. 9/28
WAS ML +152 for 3 units - Win
CWS/DET UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INN -106 for 2 units - Win
2-0 +6.56 units

Thu. 9/29
LAA/OAK OVER 4.5 FIRST 5 INN -106 for 2 units - Win
1-0 +2.00 units

Fir. 9/30
MIL/PIT UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INN -109 for 1 unit - Loss
0-1 -1.09 units

Sat. 10/1
ARZ/SFG UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INN -116 for 3 units - Win
LAD/SDP OVER 4 FIRST 5 INN -119 for 2 units - Loss
1-1 +0.62 units

Week (7) 5-6 +0.88
Week (6) 8-4 +5.88
Week (5) 4-5 +0.84
Week (4) 14-4 +23.17
Week (3) 11-13-1 +3.585
Week (2) 11-7 +2.95
Week (1) 12-8-1 +9.885

Keep in mind Post Season game is a different animal and anything can happen in a short series.
One thing that comes to mind is Angels are Yankee killers. Moose on the mound for NY is questionable against Colon. Angels are red hot right now and Yanks may disappoint here after edging the Red Sox for divison win coupled with long travel across the coast.

Since I wrote about my thoughts on Yankees vs Angels game 1 of series I see the line has gone from Angels -119 to -125 I love Oct. baseball.

As fewer teams compete for the championship there are more squares, fleas jumping on these games. Make sure your angle has the edge, study the manager's options. Look at the reduced foul territory, know the ball park, weather changes in October, etc...etc....

Just got back from the Angels game. What a disappointing start for the Halos.
Moose threw some hangers in the early going but, the Angels could not cash it in.

Saturday, October 01, 2005

Sat. Oct. 1 Play

The first day of Oct. Diamond Backs without pressure is rolling 6 in a row.
J. Vazquez is looking good lately. Brad Hennessey is also looking to finish strong and the snakes have not faced him this season.

ARZ/SFG UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -116 for 3 units
This line has changed to U4 +108 or buy the 0.5 for U4.5 -124

If you've looked at BetCrimes comment on LAD/SDP I agree on his thoughts.
I'll go with the quick over.

LAD/SDP OVER 4 FIRST 5 INNINGS -119 for 2 units

Bad choice adding the late game. Thinking about it now that was a rookie mistake, the basic rule for O/U is with strong pitching vs strong batting take the Under, with weak pitching vs weak batting take the under. The total number itself should of raised a flag as the books were luring the Overs.

BC, Good luck with the Pads. Signing out with game tied 1-1 at PetCo.

1-1 +0.62 units