Monday, July 31, 2006

Tuesday MLB

We have a recycled Dodger in Royals uniform, Odalis Perez the Dominican lefty who lost his starter role and went to Grady's dog house. Now he resurfaces in KC, dust him off, dress him up in a crisp Royals uniform and he's still a dog with fleas. Has not seen action since July 22nd, left hitting .353 and right hitting .344 he will show rust. Visitors Chicago White Sox will give the ball to Mark Buehrle who is fighting his own demons and he has not recorded a win in July. He is 0-5 with whopping 11.48 ERA, 47 hits 36 runs (34 earned) in 26.2 innings of work giving up more than 5+ runs for every start in July.
Both bullpens have rising WHIP of 1.70+ in last 3 games.

CWS/KCR Over 10.5 at -109 for 3 units(W)
Team Total:
CWS Over 6 at -111 for 2 units(W)
KCR Over 4 -118 for 2 units(W)
Crushing the Over in the 10th inning baby!
3-0 +7.00 units

Monday MLB

To the SF Bay. Giants are reeling coming off poor road trip East it will not get any easier first day back at home. Nationals making the move from LA to SF
they will catch SF off guard tonight.

WAS ML +134 for 2 units(W)
WAS ARL -1.5 at +200 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +4.68 units

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Sunday MLB

Sunday baseball under the sun in Baltimore. It will be hot and humid again. Both White Sox and Orioles are struggling 3-7 in last 10 games the bigger picture is the O's are not in th0e race and the White Sox are. White Sox have dominated Baltimore11-3 in 2 seasons so the South Siders are priced at -159 ML, still pretty solid. But in this contest the two starters Javier Vazquez and Bruce Chen are not going to go deep. The key to the winning side is who will have the timely hits because you know there are going to be runners on bases. Starting pitchers and bullpen are giving it up. I'm going to back the Over and watch out for the moose today.

CHW/BAL OVER 10.5 at -116 for 3 units(W)
Hope everyone avoided that moose and cashed the Over.
1-0 +3.00 units

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Thursday MLB

It's hot, it's humid, when will this end?
You know Jeff Weaver always gets my attention and he is up today. St. Louis Cardinals are visiting Wrigley coming in with hot pitching on this road trip.
Rich Hill gets the Big League call up from AAA Iowa Cubs with well deserved 7-1 with 1.80 ERA 15 games started. The lefty will be asked to keep the Cubs in the game for 5 plus innings.
Jeff winning at Dodger Stadium does not call for sudden upgrade in wagerline.
He pitched for the Dodgers and posted pretty good numbers there why shouldn't feel comfortable on that mound. The Cubs have had the Red Bird's numbers, 16-9 for 2 season, 6-3 this season and 3-0 at Wrigley.
St. Louis hitters only hitting .174 against LHP in last 10 games.
Going against Weaver again left bats hitting .332 & right bats hitting .286 very capable of giving up the big inning.
Waiting for price improvement.

CHI +137 for 2 units(W)
CHI +1.5 for -117 for 4 units(W)
Cubbies win.
2-0 +6.74 units

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Wednesday MLB

Back on the D-Backs for the short game.
Take listed pitchers :
(AZ. Webb 3-0 1.16 ERA in July vs PH. Lieber 0-2 4.74 ERA in July)

ARZ -0.5 First 5 innings at +102 for 2 units(L)
Webb did not have it and the D-Backs did not score enough.
0-1 -2.00 units

Monday, July 24, 2006

Tuesday MLB

Philadelphia may have swept the Diamondbacks in Arizona, but that was in June and July is looking up for the Snakes.
Arizona blows the big lead to lose against Colorado giving up 4 runs in the 9th Monday night. I think it's a good bitter pill.
Take the listed pitchers Batista and Madson.
Batista is pitching great, but Madson is 6.69 at home and right handed bats are hitting .349 Arizona OPS is very hot coming off 7-3 home stand.

ARZ +115 for 2 units(W)
Pulled it out in extra innings!
1-0 +2.30 units

Monday MLB

Stuck in the doldrums. Maybe a change of scenery or maybe cooler place to do the thinking might do the trick.

Going with Randy Johnson pitching in Texas. Milwood is good, but more of a road warrior.

NYY -118 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Sunday MLB

Taking the game in Kansas City with the Angels sending the younger Weaver.
His older brother was no help last night. Halo's money pitcher will face Duckworth who is coming off his best outing against Boston, but he is 6.55 at home and right hand bats are hitting .379

LAA -1.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
I going to add the night game Braves at Phillies. Left/right pitching hitting match up with last 10 games is very high (Atlanta vs right .345 & Philadelphia vs left .330). Both Myers and Ramirez have out pitched their average. Ramirez if true to form should implode tonight and if Braves pick up where they left off Myers should be gone around the 5th inning. Pen for the Braves are through the roof and Phillies with 15 innings used in last three games have 1.80 WHIP and 7.20 ERA.

ATL/PHL OVER 9.5 +102 for 2 units(L)
Phillies out hit the Braves 11 to 5 and they only score 1 run?
1-1 0.00 units

Saturday, July 22, 2006

Saturday MLB

Time to rethink these selections. Can't keep giving games and expect things to turn by luck.
Looking for scoring which means weak pitching and I will look for rising WHIP as the key indicator. On the hitting side I will use .700+ OPS.
Hitter friendly ballpark & .300+ RISP.

I do have something in that mold. Take listed pitchers Bush and Mays.

This total was taking some wild swings prior to the window closing.

MIL/CIN Over 5.5 First 5 innings at -111 for 2 units(W)

Going to Dodger Stadium. Must go support the home team as the West is up for grabs. The Cards love to play here and it reflects their recent record, but I have strong home team winning trend when I'm there.
Besides Jeff Weaver owes me some money I need to collect.

LAD -0.5 First 5 innings+124 for 1 unit(L)
LAD -105 First 5 innings for 2 units(L)
LAD -104 for 2 units(L)
1-3 -3.18 units

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Friday MLB

All the pitchers I back are getting knocked around. The better choice on my angle seems to be Over than strong pitching side.

I need to take one to stop the skid. Hoping Bedard will be the cure and this is pricy road fav with away record of 17-28, but Bedard is the top money maker for the O's and D-Rays are dismal 4-11 in July. Baltimore 70% winning percentage over D-Rays.

BAL -137 for 3 units(No Action)
I'd rather have Bedard not start than have him implode on the mound.

Colorado with Aaron Cook vs Arizona with Claudio Vargas.
Vargus in bit of a funk coming off 2 sub par outing. There's a chance he'll bounce back at home tonight, but Cook is the better pitcher.
Rockies 1-9 in last 10 games, 5 of those losses are the 1 run variety.
Rox look better in the First 5.

COL PK -102 First 5 innings for 1 unit(L)
There goes a perfectly good Friday. Giving up 2 out runs and not able to cash in the runners will lose everytime.
0-1 -1.02 units

Thursday MLB

Back on the Halos. On the Road facing KCR with Gobble on the mound.
Santana is pitching a breakout season and the line up, although taking the loss in last home game, is hot in July. Angels hot streak started on the road and their road record is better than home. OPS numbers show substantial advantage for the Angels tonight.

LAA -0.5 First 5 innings -122 for 2 units(L)
LAA -1.5 at -111 for 2 units(L)
Should of known when Angels blew a golden opportunity at the 5th to take the lead and all the comedy of errors everything went against me.
0-2 -4.66 units

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Wednesday MLB

I'm going back to good pitching with hot home team making it a very high percentage play. The big picture on MLB is home favs takes most wins.
The problem with this is even few losses at heavy price will change the bottom line.

The Indians at Angels in last game of the series playing the afternoon game.
Byrd was good in Halo's uniform last year and his role has not changed much, eat up 6~7 innings keep the game close. He will be motivated in his return to Anaheim stadium looking to stop the sweep and the skid. Byrd is perfect 2-0 with 4.08 career ERA against the Angels.
The home team will send the big gun, lights out of recent games and playing his best, Big John Lackey serving up strikes mowing batters down.
Byrd will have a tough job today as Angels line up is hot up and down.

LAA -1 Run Line at -122 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.44 units

Monday, July 17, 2006

Monday MLB

Two hot NL teams play at Bush Stadium tonight.
Atlanta trying to right the ship swinging big bats and their main man Chipper is heating up. St Louis also very hot and they will send newly acquired Jeff Weaver to the mound. Opposing pitcher Horacio Ramirez for the Braves coming off a very bad outing, 7 runs in one innings and chased out of the game with only 3 outs recorded. Prior outings were good, on 7/02 going 8 innings 7 hits 3 runs no walks 4 strike outs, on 6/27 going 8 innings 7 hits 1 run 1 walk 3 strike outs. He's basically pitching quality at 3 to 1 ratio.
The resurrection of Weaver might be tougher to swallow looking at his first half with the Angels, but he says he's happy to be back in NL and thinks he fits better who am I to argue. He has 5 out of last 7 quality starts. He has always matched well against the Braves. Albert Pujols is surging and Cards are doing it with pitching when the hits aren't there, rallying from behind and just plain out hitting.
Sounds like a game to pass? Figuring both pitchers to scatter 7~8 hits across 6+ innings giving up 3~4 runs. Starting pitchers no factor in this outcome.
I'll back the home team even with the Braves pounding the NL west they will face much stronger opposition tonight on the road, crossing over time zone and the weakest link, Braves bull pen, makes St Louis cardinals the play of the day.

STL -125 for 2 units(L)
Jeff, Jeff, Jeff....what to do with this pitcher? I had such expectation on this outing.
0-1 -2.50 units

Sunday, July 16, 2006

One of the great old ball park. I've been here many times and there is nowhere like it. Posted by Picasa

Sunday MLB

Taking Mets with El Duque playing at Wrigley Field. Cubs will Send the big lefty Sean Marshall. Pitching does not look predictable on either side but, I do think this is Mets game to win or lose with the better make up.

NYM -124 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

Friday, July 14, 2006

Here is the look at Camden Yards. Posted by Picasa

Camden Yards in Baltimore is another classic ball park. Just look at the inner harbor. Posted by Picasa

Friday MLB

It's Friday. Feels like another scorcher in Los Angeles and the brush fires are raging in the outskirts.

I guess the sharp money is moving the Cubs line, but I don't know about this Mets/Cubs match up Cubs have not recorded 4 wins in a row since..... have they done it this season? Mets 1-8 in last 9 in Chicago, but when are we talking about? I think Cubs peaked in Milwaukee and reverse course at home.
There are better games on the board, but I lean Mets with improved price.

My take. Texas, Rangers after outscoring opponents by 5+ runs, against right hand pitcher who has not reached 7 innings in last 3 starts and pen with 4.00+ ERA in last 3 games.

TEX -118 for 2 units(W)
I know I should of posted the Mets as a play, but the wager window was already closed or just about and figured Rangers would be the easier play. They cashed, but Mets would of been the easier pick.
1-0 +2.00 units

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Thursday MLB

Sorry the title has been corrected to "Thursday" from "Wednesday".

Taking the Run Line with the home team at Metrodome. Lee has pitched well in June, but Cleveland must be feeling bit disappointed with him this season. He could come back to finish strong, but I need to see some domination first. What's wrong? Opposition is hitting him much easier than last season, opposition on the road is hitting him, his ground out to fly out ratio is not consistent and his June start included teams on down trend with good run support (Cards, Cubs and against Angels got 14 runs).
On the other side look up "Domination" and you will find the photo of Francisco Lariano.

MIN -1.5 at +105 for 2 units(L)
The Kid did not have his game. Late inning looked interesting, but this one had no chance.

Texas with Padilla at Baltimore with Cabrera.
Cabrera is laboring throwing too many pitches. Padila has been logging quality starts.

TEX -0.5 First 5 innings at +115 for 1 unit(L)
Pure bad luck. All the Texas runs came in after the 5th inning.
I playing Texas again after outscoring opponents by 5+ runs.

0-2 -3.00 units

Backing the kid with 10-1 and wicked ERA. Posted by Picasa

The aging Dome. Posted by Picasa

Looking at the game in Minneapolis. This is another great city to visit the Twin City is so under rated it's great. If you get a chance to come here do take the RiverCity Trolley Tour. There's also the Mall of America, if your into Malls, it's the biggest. Posted by Picasa

If you like good old fashion Americana be sure to dine at Murray's.
Established in 1946 by Art and Marie Murray at 26 South Sixth Street in Minneapolis. Be sure to try the Butter Knife Steak.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

All Star Game 2006

Just look at that back drop with Allegheny river on the north shore of downtown Pittsburgh great place for baseball.
We have chance for T-Storm tonight currently partly cloudy 82 F, 62% humidity and 9mph wind blowing south. Not much to point out as AL have been winning these match ups and interleague outcomes points to the same way. But looking at the match up AL holds little value.

ALL STAR GAME OVER 5.5 First 5 innings -122 for 1 unit(L)
Glad to take a break here.
0-1 -1.22 units

Beautiful PNC Park Posted by Picasa

MLB All Star Game Posted by Picasa

Saturday, July 08, 2006

Sunday MLB

Early selection on the overnight line.

Reds with Arroyo/Atlanta with Thomson.
Arroyo took the loss in his last outing, but Thomson is really shaky his ERA is higher at home 5.63 ERA, right bats hitting .314 left hitting .288 and this month he is sporting 12.27 ERA.

CIN -0.5 First 5 innings +103 for 2 units(L)
O's with Lopez/Indians with Westbrook.
Baltimore 16-28 on the road with last 10 games going 3-7. O's have not won AL series going back into June.
Lopez is under achieving 5-10 and he is hittable in current form.
Westbrook is on the surge and Indians should take this from the start.

CLE -0.5 First 5 innings -120 for 2 units(W)

1-1 0.00 unit

Saturday MLB

Back to the basics.
Yanks with Wang against D-Rays with Kazmir.
Kaz has been throwing lights out at home and he has taken out the best of them. I expect the Tropicana Field to light up orange tonight.

TAMP -104 for 2 units(L)
Zona with Webb against Rockies with Jennings. I'll take Webb on the road.

ARZ -108 for 1 unit(W)
ARZ -0.5 First 5 innings at +124 for 1 unit(L)
Reds with Harang vs Braves with Smoltz. Taking Smoltz at home.
ATL -127 for 2 units(W)
Once again Angels at Oakland to be a low scoring.
LAA/OAK Under 8.5 -124 for 1 unit(L)
LAA -125 for 2 units(W)
LAA -0.5 First 5 innings +109 for 1 unit(W)
Jays and Royals to be high scoring
TOR/KCR Over 9.5 -113 for 1 unit(W)
5-3 +2.77 units

Friday, July 07, 2006

Friday MLB

A new day, had a bad one last night.
That Reds vs Braves game last night was a blow out for me at the first 5, but the game turned close with Reds 5 run rally towards the end. Braves will need to put away games like that at home it just proved to me they are still to be faded. I'm not doing that tonight and it'll be a blue moon before I back Mays again.

My takes for tonight.
Arizona at Colorado, Batista vs B.H. Kim at Coors Field.
Batista coming off a gem. Kim effective at home
ARZ/COL UNDER 5.5 -112 for 2 units(L)
*It has been raining in Denver if they can't play this wager is cancelled.
That would be very lucky to get this loser off my book.
NYY/TAMP J. Wright vs J. Seo.
Seo just blows and he's been giving it up early, East Coast West Coast no difference. Wright was hit, but good thing Yanks were hitting harder, look for Wright to bounce bak.
NYY -0.5 First 5 innings -108 for 2 units(W)
Minnesota at Texas Rangers C. Silva vs J. Wasdin.
Fading Wasdin after Milwood getting pushed back. Heavy load with Twins even at home. I think Twins will step up after the KC set back.
MIN First 5 +109 for 2 units(L)

Zona and Rox resumed play and there goes my luck.
1-2 -2.24 units

Thursday, July 06, 2006

Thursday MLB

You would think these short work week are easy, but in reality the work load is condensed and there are more to do than working a regular week. Nothing comes easy and if sounds too good to be true.... you know the rest.

Look at the game in Turner Field tonight. The Reds come to play with Mays who will get hit, but look at his outing 2 starts ago against the Mets when Joe was in the divers seat. In this Reds vs Braves match up I think Hudson is getting too much chalk for what he's done this season and Reds can get to him as much as Braves to Mays the difference is name recognition.
Taking the Reds on the short game. Not sold on strength of Atlanta.

CIN +170 First 5 innings for 2 units(L)
CIN -0.5 at +209 First 5 innings for 1 unit(L)
That was reaching, but got to take my shots at the dog sometimes.
Late game additions.
Hendrickson takes the mound at Dodger Stadium. He lost his first start on the road, but Dodgers are hot at home fighting for first place position in NL West.
Backing the Dodgers against Cain and the Giants. Giving 0.5 runs for the First 5 innings.

LAD -0.5 First 5 innings at +116 for 2 units(L)
Angels at Oakland. Escobar for the Halos going against Loaiza.
These two teams match up Under and that has played out 20-8-1.
Take the starting pitchers to do their job.

LAA/OAK Under 4.5 First 5 innings at +100 for 2 units(L)
Hitting rough road.
0-4 -7.00 units

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Fourth of July MLB

Everyone's looking for fireworks today/tonight and you know how it is with the grill going, brews flowing, games going things could get out of hand before you know it. It's OK to have fun just keep your money on your mind.

The Total at Safeco Field is looking good when you could take it down to O/U 8
Santana's having some control issues, but Angels bats are coming back.

SEA/LAA OVER 8 at -106 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

Monday, July 03, 2006

Monday MLB

This is long 4th of July Weekend and I was planning to play some games, but no I'm taking care of people coming in and out. Can't a capper get some time around here?

Wang on the hill for the Yanks in Cleveland. Indians sending young Jeremy Sowers. Backing the Yanks on the road for the short game. NYY pen has been taxed, but the OPS is climbing. Look for the advantage in First 5 innings

NYY -128 First 5 innings for 2 units(L)
Making late game additions.
Tigers at Oakland. Listed pitchers Robertson for Detroit, Blanton for Oakland.

DET -120 for 2 units(L)
Angels at Seattle. Listed pitchers Jered Weaver for Angels against Felix Hernadez for Mariners.

LAA +117 for 1 unit(W)
It was not a good night. A little adjustment from inter-league plays will be required for 4th of July.
1-2 -3.79

Saturday, July 01, 2006

Saturday MLB

Was planning to wait till morning, but I'll take it now.
Angels with Escobar coming off his worst outing this season against the Diamondbacks. He should be much better at home.
Dodgers with newly acquired Hendrickson looks to eat up innings.

Checking the line in the morning should of waited. You'll get better price now at -114 First Half.

LAD/LAA Under 5 First 5 innings -125 for 2 units(Push)