Monday, October 29, 2007
it was wire to wire.
New England fast developing into a major sports power house. Keep your eyes on North East.
Friday, October 26, 2007
COL +1.5 at -115 for 1 unit(L)
*Follow the title link to NBA where we are 8-2 last 10 preseason basketball
0-1 -1.15 units
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Monday, October 22, 2007
The team no one considered contenders emerge as the National League Champion. Making their miraculous and dominant September and October run Rockies are the top NL team playing in a zone. Did the long rest ware off their winning ways? will they play with rust? will Red Sox be too much to handle in Fenway, after knocking out the Indians out scoring 30 to 5 in last three games? With all the questions to defuse anybody thinking about Rox even with +200 moneyline is there anything to hang a hat on Colorado? The reasonable man may pass the first game to see how Rockies will measure. Maybe take Red Sox on -1.5 runline.
I'll go against the big home favorite and back the Rox in game. Not going to sweat it if I drop one here, but what a great spot to steal game 1 at Fenway.
COL +202 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.00 unit
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Carmona will take the mound against Curt Schilling and the mighty Red Sox at Fenway. Red Sox 54-31 at home, 27-14 with Total of 9~9.5 and 20-9 with a day off, but my play will back Indians to close the series in Fenway. Schilling with losing August and September was clobbered by these Indians 10/13 and I will go with Carmona. He too was hit by Red Sox, but quality numbers are outstanding 27 out of 34, 14 out of 16 away and 6 for 7 in most recent starts much better number than Curt. I know the pick maybe upsetting to many, but that's the call.
CLE +123 for 1 unit(L)
Wow, that was bad choice. We will rebound on next MLB play.
0-1 -1.00 unit
Monday, October 15, 2007
On the American League match up. Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
D. Matsuzaka and J. Westbrook I like the strength of pitching on both sides and ALCS has been playing Over heading into a Under.
BOS/CLE UNDER 10 at +102 for 1 unit(W)
National League match up.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Battle of young guns M. Owings and F. Morales. It would be too easy to think pitching over hitting is the trend in NLCS. Go against the grain.
ARZ/COL OVER 9.5 at +124 for 1 unit(W)
2-0 +2.26 units
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Rox are still rolling and now they are back home with a 2-0 edge. We enter a soft pitching spot in series game 3 with Josh Fogg and Livan Hernadez. Both of these pitchers have been winning games entering October and they are well capable of keeping hitters off balance. I'm not sure what will derail Colorado, but +150 plus dog in playoff spot is tempting with not much variance between starting pitchers Fogg 5-4 home with Rockies 8-6, .370 OBP and 5.97 ERA against Hernadez 5-8 away with Diamondbacks 7-11, .383 OBP and 4.98 ERA. Even with pricing premium Rockies will get the money flow and Livan will be playing with fire. What does stand out with Livan's game away is O/U 4-13 and has nothing to do with him pitching better, but Zona not scoring and the contrast is huge O/U 12-2 at home. Consider Livan's Unders and outside of Helton he's done a pretty good job. Fogg goes Over at home O/U 9-5, but he too matches up well with Arizona. Both pens are doing good job and Coors Field is nothing like it used to be. Total 10 looks a bit high.
Friday, October 12, 2007
CC Sabathia vs Josh Beckett
Pitching angle I have on this game is Cleveland, but as you know AL games have not been kind.
So take Boston and if you don't like the juice play -1.5
Just an advise to fade my AL side. No play for me, but hope it works out for all you players.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks.
Jeff Francis on cover of SI will test the jinx at Arizona against Webb. This is pretty interesting with D-Backs at home is over shadowed by the Amazing Rox. All I hear lately is Rockies the team that refuses to loose. Don't get me wrong I love the Rox and what they've done and I'm all for going with hot trends, but keep in mind the lone loss during the amazing winning stretch came at the hands of Webb and desert snakes.
Now holding off on the Sides as we have time...
ARZ -122 for 1 unit(L)
The other is the low Total of 7.5 hung for this first match. I know many players like the Over and that's what the Books are expecting too. I think the run total will be around 5 so Under will be the play.
COL/ARZ UNDER 7.5 at +102 for 1 unit(W)
COL/ARZ UNDER 7.5 at +118 for 1 unit(W)
Rox still look great. I tip my hat to them. D-Backs are no way done, but Colorado are the balanced team.
1-1 +0.98 units
Monday, October 08, 2007
Paul Byrd (15-8) Indians 19-12 is 0-2 in last 3 games, 2-3 in September with team record of 3-3. Paul is not in good form pitching 2 quality out of last 6 starts.
Chien M. Wang (19-8) Yankees 21-10 is 1-1 in last 3 games, knocked out by Cleveland on 10/4, 3-1 in September with team record of 3-2. He has 2 poor outing in last 7 and both came away.
This game has the look of game going Over, Wang on short rest and Byrd out of form, but both pitcher are bit Under in tonight's situation. Byrd is marginal O/U away 6-8-1. Wang O/U home 6-8-2. I'd love to go with the big dog, but Yanks at home win 64%, as -200 or more 75% and elimination games runs come at a premium.
CLE/NYY UNDER 10.5 at -106 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
Sunday, October 07, 2007
Schilling vs Weaver
Can not tell you how disappointing my last loss with Angels was. Most likely my biggest 1 unit loss this season, if you know what I mean.
Today in big A the wind is gusting in knocking down fly balls during BP and this has got to go against Red Sox, but what stand out is single frame of scoring by Angels in 18 innings thus far.
BOS/LAA UNDER 8.5 at +104 for 1 unit(L)
6th inning 2-0 Boston lead. This game is available live at "Matchbook.com"
Over is now +1000 and I'm not going to watch Angels loosing game any more.
So taking the Over for 0.25 units and I'm covered on both O/U.
In-Game: middle 6th inning
BOS/LAA OVER 8.5 at +1000 for 0.25 units(W)
Got lucky when I optioned out. Just didn't want to watch the game with Angels offense dead in the water. I did not for a second think Over would hit, I was willing to settle for +0.79 units with 0.25 wager as a insurance. Why didn't I just wager 0.10? Just looking at the bigger upside making 0.20 units more or risking 0.15 units more for return of 2.25 and gain of 1.25 units.
1-1 +1.25 units
Friday, October 05, 2007
Kelvim Escobar (18-7) Angels 22-8, Away (8-3) team 9-4
Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12) Red Sox 17-15, Home (8-4) team 9-5
Call me a homer, call me a fool, Angels are not hitting? Vladimir Guerrero's playing hurt? Garret Anderson? Dice K is OK at home, but just OK because Red Sox scored no less than 5 runs for him in September. Other than that he is hittable with 4.86 ERA at Fenway and 2 quality starts out of last 7 recording 2-3 and 6.86 ERA.
Kelvim 10 quality away starts out of 13 games. Coming off couple of losses against division rivals, but Angels are 8-1 against AL East.
I will take the good pitcher over a mediocre one as a pretty good size dog.
LAA +152 at 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.00 unit
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Franklin Morales (3-2) Rockies 6-2
Kyle Kendrick (10-4) Phillies 13-7
We knocked down the Under against the public yesterday, but you know the nature of these teams are Over. Kendrick has been pitching Over games 6 out of last 7. Morales has 3 wins and Rox are 5-0 behind him in September, but he just doesn't go the distance. Second look for Phillies since 9/11 and I'm not sure how long Morales will play above himself.
COL/PHL OVER 10 at +100 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
Aces in game 1 of series have produced Under's across the board.
Wang 19-7 with Yanks 21-9 behind him is not exactly a Under machine with O/U 15-12-3 and goes Over a bit more away O/U 9-4-1, but he is in pretty good form with 6 quality starts out of last 7 with 2.44 ERA (has risen in last 3) Yanks play the Indians very well sweeping them at home and away, but Sabathia has been tough in September 4-0 with Indians going 5-0. He is also O/U 2-9 in his last 11 games
NYY/CLE UNDER 8.5 at +114 for 1 unit(L)
Indians were amazing today. Did not expect it and American League is a thorn on my side.
0-1 -1.00 unit
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
This is a match up where you first consider the home team. Both teams earn bulk of the money at home and Boston hold the edge 6-4 overall, 5-2 at home. On top of that Red Sox sends their top money pitcher Josh Beckett, but if Angels are to face Beckett it's better at home than away.
You'd also want to send your best road starter John Lackey with Angels 12-5 away. Beckett will need to keep runners off base as Angels will run today and take deep counts. It may not have the power of Red Sox , but small ball is worth a play.
LAA +164 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.00 unit
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
I am not going to give you analogy on every game. Picking my spots and I'll enjoy the games as a fan.
Rockies at Philadelphia
Jeff Francis vs Cole Hamels
Looks like a good match up here with good arms and these two teams are pretty much split evenly against each other, but as you know Totals go OVER at better than 66% Even with these two pitchers, Francis O/U away 7-6-3, against NL East 5-0, day games 5-3-2 and most recent two road starts have gone Over. Hamels is quite balanced on O/U, but the nature of these two teams at Philly should be enough to entice a play on Over 9.....or should it? This game comes after each team claimed victory to play in the Playoffs, the tension in each respective club's line up might have eased after taking the win. On this small notion I will select starting pitchers to have the edge today. Smart pitching to keep early scoring to minimum and this one sneaks in Under.
*This number is rising from 9 to 9.5. Looking to take Under 9 at +110 or better.
OK, +117 or better.
COL/PHL UNDER 9 +118 for 1 unit(W)
COL/PHL UNDER 9.5 -110 for 1 unit(W)
2-0 +2.18 units
A team-by-team look at the playoff bullpens:
Boston Red Sox: This is a deep unit, though the uber-bullpen that the Sox thought they'd assembled hasn't quite worked out. That's because Eric Gagne has been a disappointment since his trade from Texas. Even with Gagne not right, there's a great deal to like. Jonathan Papelbon is overwhelming. Hideki Okajima and Mike Timlin are dependable, youngster Manny Delcarmen has the faithful buzzing and Javier Lopez makes a fine second lefty.
Cleveland Indians: If a bullpen is only as good as its closer -- hint, it's not -- then the Indians have some worries. Joe Borowski's save total masks what wasn't a very good season; note the nine homers allowed. The two guys setting him up, though, are dynamite -- righty Rafael Betancourt and lefty Rafael Perez have just been nasty. This group, with talented but unknown youngsters like Perez and Jensen Lewis, bears some resemblance to the '06 world champion Cardinals.
Los Angeles Angels: As always, the Angels have a fine 'pen, but this year's group is not quite as intimidating as some of recent vintage. Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields have been a little more mortal this season, though veteran additions Darren Oliver and Justin Speier have helped. Depth is still an asset here, but it's not quite like earlier years this decade, when an Angels lead in the sixth meant the game was over.
New York Yankees: It's feast or famine, definitely a different look from the days when Joe Torre had four-headed monsters of death in the late innings. This time, it's Mariano Rivera in the ninth, Joba Chamberlain setting up and a lot of question marks. Torre won't hesitate to make sure Rivera and Chamberlain get in games, though, and that's a plus. The starters need to pitch deep, or the sixth and seventh innings could be problematic.
Arizona Diamondbacks: This is the best bullpen you haven't heard anything about. Jose Valverde and Juan Cruz are big-time power guys, both averaging well over 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena throw strikes and get outs. There's no lefty-killing lefty, but that never stopped the Angels in recent years, and besides, Valverde and Lyon can get left-handed hitters out.
Chicago Cubs: The reputation of the bullpen as the Cubs' weak link is a bit overstated, but this team has had some scary moments. Ryan Dempster has only blown three saves, though, and the right-handed setup relief has been outstanding. Carlos Marmol and Bobby Howry make an excellent late-inning tandem. Scott Eyre is having a decent year but is miscast if he's used as a specialist, but Will Ohman gets lefties out. Oh, and you think Wrigley will go nuts if Kerry Wood gets the call for some big outs in October?
Colorado Rockies: Manny Corpas supplanted Brian Fuentes as the guy in the ninth, and it's worked out very well. Corpas has been more reliable in finishing games, and Fuentes has been dominant in the second half -- especially against left-handers. Jorge Julio is a big name but remains somewhat flammable, but Jeremy Affeldt, LaTroy Hawkins and Matt Herges have done solid work. This group is good enough not to hurt the Rockies, but not good enough to change the dynamic of a series.
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phils have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in the National League -- by far the worst of any NL playoff team. It's not just their ballpark that's to blame, either. Brett Myers settled in nicely in the ninth, but beyond that, it was a season-long search for the right guys in the right spots. Some intriguing pieces are here, but Charlie Manuel is going to need to trust the kids rather than going to old hands like Jose Mesa, Antonio Alfonseca and even Tom Gordon.