Tuesday, April 29, 2008

MLB Wednesday

1-1 yesterday. YTD 24-17 +10.43 units

The twists and turns of baseball. Year after year you reshuffle the players, add some new ones, take out some old ones and just like that a whole new ball game. The big picture so far is that home dogs are winning at a nice 55.26% making away favorites a general filter might be good if your game is treading water. Under makes just over 53% so watch out for easy looking Over games.
If you are a dog player you should be doing OK, favorites are not making the grade at 51.3%, but this should correct as season progresses. I think there's quite a bit of Basketball to Football Cappers or Hockey to Football cappers killing time in Baseball, but when Football season rolls around Baseball will be left to Baseball cappers and by that time games will have plenty of stats to make the bets sharp as a razor blade.
Here is another piece of the puzzle. These are top 10 wagered teams.
1. Mets
2. Angels
3. Yankees
4. Detroit
5. Atlanta
6. Arizona
7. Boston
8. St. Louis
9. San Diego
10. Cubs

These are top 10 money teams
1. Arizona
2. Oakland
3. Florida
4. Baltimore
5. Milwaukee
6. St Louis
7. Boston
8. Cubs
9. White Sox
10. Tampa

#2~#5 money winners are flying under the radar not making the top 10 favorite teams to put your money on while Tampa sneaks in top 10 money team. Yanks and Detroit come in #22 & #26 at the bottom of money while San Diego makes dead last at #30 money. Oh yes, everyone's favorite Mets are barely on the plus side at #12 money.

Play is on Seattle Mariners. They will hand the ball to veteran Jarrod Washburn who has performed well over the years in Cleveland. It's true Washburn has been a losing pitcher since coming to Seattle, but this guy gives you innings. He's won 10 lost 15 last season, but who's to say pitcher always wins alone. You need to score and you can't win no matter how good the pitching unless you put 1 run more than the other team. Cliff Lee has been outstanding, maybe too good and I will test him here as a big home favorite. Indian bats are cooled right now while Mariners knocking .359 against LHP in last 10.

MARINERS +168 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0-1 last selection. YTD 23-16-1 +9.43 units.

Full day of Baseball, NBA & NHL all have games today so if you have time on your hands it could get out of control capping too many games. Keep your focus on the games you have your eyes on and don't get distracted by playing games that all of sudden start looking good because you read something, heard something and you start getting swayed when nothing fundamental about the game has changed. Most likely you've looked at it already and passed on it 2 days ago.
Yesterday was a good example in NBA with Denver +4.5 doing a reverse line movement to +4 with everybody on Lakers. Good thing I didn't touch it with posted Total Over losing big time ( I reversed it UNDER 2nd half 111.5, but didn't have time to publish it. ) I passed on it days ago and then hear a joker on the radio talking about how he went to Vegas put money on Lakers -4.5 and these guys were "Wowed" like "what a easy bet". That's when a light bulb lit, "Public squares are all over Lakers" I get back to the computer and see Lakers at -4 and knew Players were on Denver. I almost bit, but remember I looked at that already and thought about Denver +4.5, why should I chase it at +4? There's too much issues with Nuggets and if they were going to bring their game it should of been the run and gun, but it didn't work out and Nuggets are out.

Getting back to MLB tonight.
Backing Reds at St Louis and giving young Johnny Cueto a shot against Joel Pinero. Joel is on the improve and looked good in win against the Bucks, but his opponents have lacked the punch of surging Reds scoring 24 runs and winning three in a row.

REDS +101 for 1 unit(L)
Johnny got his ass kicked today.

Not done yet. Playing Oakland at Angels after winning with Oakland yesterday I switch over to Angels and Joe a.k.a. "Sandman" who is on top of Angels money pitcher. Look for Saunders to put the A's bats to sleep in tonight's low scoring game.

ANGELS - 134 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +1.00 units

Monday, April 28, 2008

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection with better than a unit profit. YTD 22-16 +8.23 units.

Welcome to my wagering blog where my circle of handicappers and I publish our daily picks. There's no sales here, but always interested in like-minded friends.

Today the take is on Daniel Cabrera and the Baltimore O's visiting the South side of Chicago.
Cabrera since walking 5 at the start of April he has gained control dropping his walk number in 4 consecutive games with none in last game against Seattle going 8 innings punching out 5 with 2 runs on 5 hits. He's still on short leash with many, but if he throws strikes like he has been Daniel is tough. White Sox will go with Javier Vasquez he got beat by always tough Yanks, but he is steady in eating innings solid pitcher. The pitching edge we give to Cabrera due to his 2008 transformation, which may give, and look for continuing surge.

BALTIMORE +136 for 1 unit(Suspended due to Rain)

Oh man, could not close the deal and now the game is rained out with tie score!

Well, let's move on to the late game with Oakland at Angels. Both hot clubs, but most are impressed with Angels rounding the East Coast swing. Yes, they performed against MLB top contenders, but they might blink after that long trip where as Oakland is just coming down state. A's know Jon Garland and they like his stuff with 3-8 record. Garland is also cooling and that's another plus for A's. Gaudin rounding into form and he's going the distance.
Take the value on the road underdog.

OAKLAND +120 for 1 unit(W)

1-0-1 +1.20 units

Saturday, April 26, 2008

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 21-15 +7.11 units

Armando Galarraga has done more than his share to fill in for D-Train holding opponents scoreless for 14 2/3 innings while same can't be said of his counter part filling in for Big John Lackey, visiting Angels Dustin Mosely has been shaky. Also keep in mind Tigers have turned on it's offense and this game opened with Detroit moneyline at -125 quickly moving to -130. But I like the Angels performing on the road continuing to collect as underdogs and this is the site of Mosely's 10K performance last year very capable pitcher better than what he's shown. I understand Tigers can put this game out of reach in any inning, but Halos and Dustin has good chance of stealing this following their 4-3 win Angels optioned first baseman Kendry Morales and infielder Sean Rodriguez to Class AAA Salt Lake of the Pacific Coast League and recalled relievers Jose Arredondo and Rich Thompson. Angels moving pieces back to core strength pitching and speed.

ANGELS +138 for 1 unit(L)

Take the Dodgers at home with Penny on the mound to take this Total way Over as that is the MO in tonights situational play. If your book offers the 1st 5innings take that Over too as I expect nothing less than easy 10 points on this warm summer like evening in Los Angeles.

COL/LAD OVER 9 at +112 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +1.12 units

Thursday, April 24, 2008

MLB Thursday

2-0 last selection but have to cancel the Angels due to scratched SP. 20-15 +5.81 units

Tonight the play is on Baltimore O's at Seattle M's and this selection will go against Washburn. Mariners playing .500 ball is a bit better at home and Baltimore sports 3-5 losing road record, but Washburn is a money burner at the bottom of Seattle SP. Loewen to keep this interesting.

BALTIMORE +130 for 1 unit(W)

There's a tight win! 1-0 +1.30 units

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

MLB Wednesday

1-2 last selection YTD 19-15 +4.52 units

Matsuzaka is not exactly pitching lights out, but Red Sox are so going against them at Fenway it tough as it gets. Still Jon Garland knows his game and it's starting to get better. Angels are the Western contender with balance and Garland is at the high end of food chain within current Halos SP. I expect him to deliver tonight.

ANGELS +166 for 1 unit(W)

Florida Marlins will give Miller the ball and this kid has the stuff it just has not completely developed on the big mound, but that will turn at Atlanta. Bennett will try to eat innings today and he has been good so far, but I see it as over achieving.

MARLINS +129 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.95 units

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

MLB Tuesday

1-1 last selection YTD 18-13 +5.07 units

Backed this selection on St Louis last night when ML swung strong to Brewers coming off a tight loss to Cards. I know there's more to the price movement, but I was able to steal +120 off the board and current "ask" around +113, "bid" around -114, closing in on game time.

CARDINALS +120 for 1 unit(L)

Bucks are due for a win at home, but I don't subscribe to that theory and Florida has done nothing wrong.

MARLINS +113 for 1 unit(L)

American League play on late game in Oakland where Blanton is strongly favored, but does not reflect the outcome so far. Livan for the Twins have come through and field is playing excellent defense.

TWINS +145 for 1 unit(W)

Not cutting mustard.
1-2 -0.55 units

Monday, April 21, 2008

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection YTD 17-12 +5.07 units

Total Forecast UNDER
*Cheat sheet does not indicate Sunday's result.
Houston O/U 6-12 tied for 3rd with Baltimore with 66.7%, home O/U 3-5 at 62.5% allowing 3.9 runs. Against RHP 5-9 at 64.3% averaging 3.6 runs. Last 7 O/U 2-5 at 71.4%.
Roy Oswalt 1-3 with 1 quality start, but that quality game returned in his last start clamping down the offense minded Phillies in Philadelphia. Even with 3 shaky starts Astros have managed to split the O/U 2-2 with Oswalt taking the mound.
San Diego O/U 7-10-1 tied for 5th with Oakland and Texas. Though their away numbers do not favor UNDER Padres are O/U 5-9-1 against RHP and they are at the bottom of run production at 2.9 per game. Justin Germano has pitched 3 out of 3 quality games and Padres let him down on all three counts and that O/U 2-1 should be 0-3.
These two teams have met already this season with O/U 1-3, Last two seaons O/U 3-8.

PADRES/ASTROS UNDER 8.5 +119 for 1 unit(L)

Oswalt quietly returning to form and you know he is #1 Astros pitcher regardless of early struggles. I'd go runline -1.5 with Padres fading, but Houston is not exactly steam rolling opponents. Back the Moneyline.

HOUSTON -138 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 0.00 units

Saturday, April 19, 2008

MLB Saturday

0-2 last selection YTD 17-11 +6.07 units

Sorry to be so late on a sports filled Saturday, but wanted to be selective. Keeping in mind the mantra "buy low sell high" Padres have fallen and after a weak showing with Maddux last night struggling Young will take the ball. SD line has moved all the way from +100 to +112 at Pinny with depleted pen and cold bats on cappers mind. Gonzalez is still in early form and maybe the weak link. Chris Young is San Diego's #2 after Peavy and if anyone can stop the bleeding Young would be a good bet.
*Matchbook line
SAN DIEGO PADRES +114 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Friday, April 18, 2008

MLB Friday

0-1 heart breaker yesterday YTD 17-9 +8.07 units

Pirates will play the underdog role as long as there are enough doubters. Today is one of those days when Bucks meet the Cubs in Chicago. If you buy into the Cubs today your most likely counting on the bats to come through against Snell and Hill will manage to eat enough innings. That's not a far fetched scenario, but more likely is Bucks will get to Hill and Snell with confidence will once again stand victorious.

PIRATES +130 for 1 unit(L)

Mets managed the extra inning win and that's good, but they had to really work to beat them pesky Nats. Today in the City of Brotherly Love Phils are not pesky, but down right dangerous in this battle between the aces. I think Phillies have the higher ace today.

PHILLIES +102 for 1 unit(L)

2 unwise plays 0-2 -2.00 units

Thursday, April 17, 2008

MLB Thursday

2-0 yesterday YTD 17-8 +9.07 units

Backing White Sox on the road back to back and reasons have not changed from what I wrote yesterday. O's pen is wasted right now and there is no starter advantage tonight. Buy a ticket and ride the White Ponies.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +103 for 1 unit(L)

Old fashion moose blowing the 9th inning save and losing in the 10th.
0-1 -1.00 unit

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

MLB Wednesday

2-1 yesterday YTD 15-8 +6.95 units

I know I talk trash about the White Sox Big Cuban, but that's all in scope of the match up with little or no value. I think it's different today because Adam Lowen has weaknesses greater than Jose Contreras and he has not been able to go deep into his game. Matter of fact last 3 starters have unable to go no more than 5 innings exhausting their pen. Baltimore's home strength is thinning since 5-1 start and batting is coming down. We'll ride White Sox at Camden Yards.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +112 for 1 unit(W)

Mariners bats come alive last night racking up 11 runs. Today the team is at Oakland with King Felix on the mound. We like Felix and Mariners, Oakland just returning from East with longer travel. Joe Blanton is always reliable and pitches well at home, but A's seem to take too many tough loss in this type of match up.

SEATTLE MARINERS +100 for 1 unit(W)

There's my 2-0 and that's +2.12 units

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

MLB Tuesday

2-0 yesterday 13-7 +5.88 units

Why not roll with Angels at Texas? Milwood is the veteran leadership for the Rangers and Texas needs to stop the bleeding. It just seems at team's troubling times comes too early for Texas and Angels are just the team to give it to them. Milwood showing flashes of his old self, circa 2002 Braves, lefties are swinging .189 , but Mr. Washington is tinkering with the line up, giving his catcher a day off and I think Angels are going to take care of whatever Rangers are scheming.

ANGELS +114 for 1 unit(W)

I think there is a strong backing for Indians taking on the Red Sox. Even with Byrd failing badly the faithfuls are out and pitching doubters should be puzzled at the near even price for the Tribe.
The line is predicting Indians to come through, but I'll side with the squares and take Wake with Sox.

RED SOX -103 for 1 unit(W)

Adding Braves for tonight to make it a threesome. Is it another misguided line or Atlanta collapse? Scott Olsen is pitching pretty good in last 2 starts, but lost more than won last season and Braves seem to have his number, 8.54 ERA in 32 2/3 innings, while going 1-4.
Jair Jurrjens taking the ball for Atlanta will hold his own and long as we get some offensive burst Brave should hold on to take this on the road.

BRAVES -107 for 1 unit(L)

Stupid me added a loser when I could of been perfect. Oh well, I can live with 2 out of 3.
2-1 +1.07 units

Sunday, April 13, 2008

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection 11-7 +3.77 units

Zack Greinke is looking lights out so far in early season. He may not keep pace, but I don't think Mariners will get much to hit. Washburn was good last time out and not so good 2 outings ago, as far as I'm concerned jury is still out on Jarrod as you can look back at his track record going to last season and if he doesn't have a good outing the pen is no relief. Royals pitching is another story and that's what's driving them.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS + 111 for 1 unit(W)

Back to back Angels play. Heading to Arlington, Texas with Santana on the mound and he has been solid. We won with him on the road and we take it one more time.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS -101 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.11 units

Saturday, April 12, 2008

MLB Sunday

2-0 last selection YTD 10-6 +3.73 units

April Sunday is like baseball day dream when it's warm enough for the BBQ grill to come out and friends to join in. So better stock up early on drinks, meat and some baseball know-how.
So Angels are 6-5 and Seattle's draining your wallet? Not to fear, Erik Bedard is not living up to Mariner's expectations and Los Angeles will send their hottest pitcher Joe Saunders who has been outstanding in his last 2. Angels to take Sunday.
Bedard may get scratch take action before the line change.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS +121 for 1 unit(W)

If there is a pitcher with early struggles I would put Tom Gorzelanny on that list and it's no recent occurrence with last win dated last season September 7th. Pirates maybe feeling pretty good after stringing 2 wins in a row from Reds, but Johnny Cueto is a young gun worth following and he just might be another opposition to hand Tom Gorzelanny a loss.

REDS -117 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 +0.04 units

MLB Saturday

2-0 last selection YTD 8-6 +1.63 units

Todd Wellemeyer likes being a Cardinal and Cardinals appreciate that. He transformed into a winner with the Red Birds going 9-2 in his 11 starts. Off to a nice start this season and showed he can pitch deep. Matt Cain has good stuff and his trade mark eating innings are not quite there this season, matter of fact a win has eluded him going back to August 2007, seven starts ago. Cardinal get the nod from me.

ST LOUIS +108 for 1 unit(W)

Minnesota Twins are pushing back the forces behind KC Royals. Some have called KC the most improved team of 2008, but they'll lose their share and Tomko is playing with fire. Backing Bonser to get the job done on the road.

MINNESOTA TWINS +102 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.10 units

Thursday, April 10, 2008

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection YTD 6-6 -1.12 units

I wouldn't say Ricky Nolasco rivals Roy Oswalt. Ricky has come out of the pen and was moved early into the rotation with VandenHurk sent down probably expected to give them 5 innings or so, but I wouldn't ponder on that too much. As much as Oswalt and the Stros have feasted on Marlins Os has shown he is out of form. That's enough for me to take on the big dog with young, inexperienced and under rated fish.

FLORIDA MARLINS +170 for 1 unit(W)

Feeling a bit too much love for Boston Red Sox tonight. I understand the Bean Town Boys will be ready to play, but New Yorks got Wang on the mound and I just can not resist this fine ground ball pitcher as a dog. Yeah, Red Sox have got to Wang in the past and Jeter's hurting still I think it's a tall order for young Buchholz.

NEW YORK YANKEES +105 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.75 units

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection YTD 4-6 -3.17 units

Reds are in Milwaukee where Brew crew is rolling 6-2 over all, but I like Reds chances with Harang taking the mound and Reds are very dangerous. Carlos Villanueva held his own yet showed he is very hittable and Reds are a good bet to take 2 in a row.

REDS +105 for 1 unit (W)

Seattle Mariners will hand the ball to Miguel Batista in Tropicana Field and he is looking to bounce back from a loss in Baltimore (4/5 4-6 loss) 5 innings 7 hits 5 runs. The counter part is Edwin Jackson who ended last season looking strong and his last outing looked good against the Yanks. Mariners have owned the Rays in the past, but let's face it Jackson looks better rolling with the home team.

TAMPA -133 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.05 units

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection YTD 4-5 -0.77 units

San Diego Padres -120 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.40 units

MLB Tuesday

0-2 last selection YTD 4-4 +0.23 units

You know Bedard is on the mound at Tampa and this match is close to even money. If you've followed Bedard's transition to Seattle you know it hasn't been smooth and he's missed a game prior to this start. Expect him to pick up his game sometime heading into summer, but Tampa gets the nod from the Books.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS +105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Sunday, April 06, 2008

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection YTD 4-2 +2.23 units

Seattle Mariners are playing flat and they are losing to Baltimore. The O's are rebuilding right now and their share of wins are expected to be small so when they get a burst of wins like they have done I can see backers getting shy. Mariners are going to put the better product on the field and the price is very under valued.

SEATTLE MARINERS +105 for 1 unit(L)

I guess the betting public like the Under and they have played a low total game, but Yanks still have the killer line up and Moose in early season could be the right combo.

D-Rays at Yanks OVER 10 at +110 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

Saturday, April 05, 2008

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection YTD 3-2 +1.05 units

Cleveland Indians at Oakland A's. This will feature Cliff Lee pitching against Joe Blanton with pretty close numbers. As usual Indians as a slight road dog will be my play.

CLEVELAND ML +118 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.18 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection YTD 3-1 +2.05 units

Rockies at home hosting Arizona D-Back with Webb on the mound. Snakes may look cheap in Denver, but Francis is also a budding star and Rox are the one with value at home.

DENVER ROCKIES ML +108 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Friday, April 04, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection YTD 2-1 +1.05 units

Welcome back Batis !

LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres with score to go Over 8 runs, The Japanese import Kuroda goes against Germano and I'd say hittable game.

LAD/SDP OVER 7.5 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

It was pitchers dual till Germano left the game. One big inning pushed it Over !
1-0 +1.00 unit

Thursday, April 03, 2008

MLB Thursday

1-1 YTD +0.05 units
Angles at Twins.

Taking Santana and the boys in Red.

LAA ML -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit