Monday, June 14, 2010

MLB Tuesday

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

L.A. dropped 3 in a row, at home, to their cross town rivals and they are looking for some relief. Relief in Great American Ballpark is not a bad thought. Dodgers have been kicking Reds around for some time and last time these two pitchers met back in April 6-14 Dodgers blow out at Great American Ballpark. Harang has tough time with L.A. and Hiroki Kuroda is one of the Dodgers top money pitcher with Dodgers taking 8-4. All that and Dodgers are only -115, what do you say? A good bounce back spot after a three game loss by L.A a team with 36-27 record and with a day off. Both are bad situation with negative stats for L.A. and though L.A. does hold edge over past record Reds are very similar this season at 36-28 record, 22-15 at home, with excellent 0.8 win margin. I also think Dodgers are a risky proposition where single run games have turned against them over the course of last 10 games.


Saturday, June 12, 2010

MLB Saturday

Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins
First game of this series was a pitching duel with both starters going 8 strong innings. Tonight the match up will feature good pitching again with Derek Lowe for the visiting Braves, 8-5 with team record the same. He's been getting good run support and has been money. You also need to understand the Braves road record of 16-21 is not reflective of Atlanta's current state. Eliminating their early slump Braves are playing even away, splitting Arizona and L.A. series on the road before that sweeping the Phillies, Pittsburgh at home before that winning on the road and their winning ways started before that. Yes, Atlanta Braves are good team to back right now. Cutting to the chase, I like the Twins and Nick Blackburn. They are perfect at home. Yeah, Nick threw 2 forgettable starts out West, but back to the friendly fields in Twin city I expect different.

MINNESOTA TWINS -116 for 1 unit (L)

Late inning loser

Friday, June 11, 2010

MLB Friday

New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles.

The interleague games are upon us again. Not really big on uncharted matches, or minimal history at best type games, but playing hot so let's keep it rolling. NY Mets are playing well lately, 7-3 last 10, best in the East as a matter of fact. They will make the short trip to Baltimore and give 17-43 Orioles a shot. O's are 22 games behind Tampa, 17 games behind 4th place Toronto and gone 2-8 in last 10.
R.A. Dickey getting movement on his knuckler and all systems look set for New York. However O's showed some fight against the Yankees and despite their losing record last 5 games has signs of rising performance leading to last nights win. Jermey Guthrie has pitched well and his team wasting his last outing must weigh in. Baltimore 11-18 at home is pretty bad but, Mets are worse 8-18 away, regardless how short road trip. Backing Baltimore at Camden. Dickey is a familiar pitcher in AL and a known 5th option at that.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES -113 for 1 unit(L)

Oh crap! Moving on.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

MLB Wednesday

SF Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Love both of these teams, not as a fan, money line seem to feel the same. Giants will go with Jonathan Sanchez, he has been money on the road 3 quality starts out of 5 with hair above 1.00 WHIP. On the home front, Aaron Harang who is eating innings as usual, but bottom of ranks in rotation. He comes off a ND in Washington with Reds taking the loss in a game where he failed to reach 6 innings for the first time in over a month. Although Reds are bleeding with their veteran on the hill, handicappers know it and June suites better for Giants than Reds, I rather take the game after a shut out situation for Reds at home. Also a bounce back spot for Harang. Giants after 3 or more wins in a row has dismal win percentage and they are on the road.

CINCINNATI REDS -114 for 1 unit(W)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals

All this movement here has caught my attention. I understand the Bucks suck on the road, what are they 9-20 away?, and they will test the water with Brad Lincoln the triple A call-up, but lets look at what we know at this level. Nats going with Lannan. He is among the money makers of the rotation and even with sub .500 record, 2-3, his team has logged 6-5 with 3-1 record at home. The Bucks woeful road record is coupled with 2-7 record against NL East. OK this is bad why in the world would you take the Pirates? Did you know despite their 23-35 record they are Black in money? Also these two teams match up close with Bucks slight edge and the money line is moving away. Lannan has not been quality at home, he's logged only one, and 4.91 ERA with 1.68 WHIP. Give me the Pirates for FIRST 5 INNINGS.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES *First 5 Innings +129 for 1 unit(PUSH)

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics

Joe Sanders will take the ball and he is rolling right now, 3-1 in last 5 lowered his ERA to 3.24, going for more. He's also 10-4 career against the A's. Top it off Dallas Braden for the A;s have not won since throwing a perfect game on May 9th. But give him credit at home with 6 quality starts out of 7, 2.61 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. What this match up holds for Dallas and the A's are the O/U 1-6 and these two teams match up UNDER at better than 60% in Oakland. So I look for good pitching and maybe for this line to move up 0.5 runs, but I'll go ahead with the current 8.

UNDER 8 at +111 for 1 unit(PUSH)

How often do you see 2 pushes out of 3. Six published winners in a row. Like that?

Sunday, June 06, 2010

How do you like me now?

How do you like the new layout? I thought it was kind of cool. Baseball selections have been doing well. Started out in the hole, but turned things around and we are back in BLACK.

You know I don't write much besides game angles and I don't think I'm much of a writer. It's something I do to break from daily responsibilities it keeps your soul alive. If your passion dies than so too will your soul and you'll become nothing more than a dead soul inching along the freeway in a iron casket. There are two reasons for me to do this. Because I like it and it makes money. Money part is important too not because it's money, but because it's a gauge of how your doing. It's like points and for me I rather have higher points than wins. Game wins go hand in hand with money won, but the degree of wins or amount of money wins are different so 21-15 winner picking favorites may not differ much from 18-18 winner taking dogs. I also like the fact this game does not discriminate and good players will rise like cream. I've seen a lot of guys come and go, but the good ones, the one's who are truly skilled, are still standing knocking down games year after year.
If you do it long enough you should know and remember situations that have come before meaning your skill to predict the outcome have to become sharp or you will not survive in this game. The nature of zero sum game is winner takes it all. Mistake in reading the game will cost you. Most likely the risky proposition is not for the majority or maybe your just a fan rooting for your team with $50 riding to make it exciting. If this is you then your not in my world. Published plays are $1000 per unit a.k.a. Dime plays. I post them as I see them. Do you have the skills? I'd like to know. Leave me a comment or PM directly.

Saturday, June 05, 2010

MLB Sunday

This is my town. I'm in L.A., but my forecast calls on "Show Me" State game.

I know everyone here is tuned in on NBA Finals from Staples Center. It's nothing personal it's business.

Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals

What's cooking? Sunday BBQ's in the plan and nothin goes better then ribs, chicken, hot links with that MLB game.

Did I notice a lefty lefty match up in St Louis? Yes I did, Jamie Garcia and Manny Parra going at it. You know the Cards are the contenders and Brewers are the under achievers. Manny's pitching a fill in role and Jamie is pitching some impressive games. Not much to think about pulling the trigger on St Louis? Right off the bat Jamie, as good as he maybe, is a 50-50 proposition. Now ask yourself if that's a risk worth taking? OK, you say it doesn't matter because Brewers aren't going to win. Well bad as it looks for the Brewers I see it as not as good for the Cards. And like I said in the beginning it's a lefty lefty match up that trends toward Milwaukee.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS +200 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, June 04, 2010

MLB Friday

Cincinatti Reds at Washington Nationals.
Reds are playing well at 31-23 so far and backers are making money. They have cooled a bit dropping the St Louis series, but very strong home stand before that going 5-2. Today Reds call on Aaron Harang (4-5 & 5.48 ERA) coming off a 7 inning 1 run schooling of Astros. Harang coming into mid season form maybe trouble for 26-29 Nationals. Livan Hernandez has not won since early May and Reds bats are pretty hot over their last 10 games. However Money line telling a different story with opening favoring the home team. Hernandez despite cooling in May still 4 quality starts out of 5 with 1.51 ERA & 0.98 WHIP at home. Nationals won't roll over tonight.