Saturday, April 27, 2013

MLB Saturday

7-7 +590

Coming off Milwaukee L.A. sailing OVER 7 with final score of 5-7 L.A.

Taking the game to Nationals Park. Washing leading 4 game series 2-0.

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals.
If your up with the Reds you know they're not hitting, not scoring. They've gone zero runs in last game, that was 0-1 Washington win, went 1-8, 2-4, 0-2 and 2-3, that's 5 runs in 4 games against Washington and Cubs. They went 1-3 in that span, Latos burned the Cubs 1-0 for a win, but that's not comforting. The last time Cincinnati won with some gusto was April 22nd with Mike Leake on the mound against the Cubs. Mike has been fantastic of late and Reds offense have always supported good amount of runs when Mike takes his turn. Leake was hit against Washington in Nationals home opener, but not without the Reds doing some hitting back of their own.  The Reds will face Dan Haren who's fighting some demons of his own. He did have a pretty good outing, though not enough to be a quality start or a team win, 3 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings, only to lose 2-3 to St Louis Cardinals.  Not sure if his game will improve here, but the Reds hit him hard the last time they met. The line is tight and Cincinnati looks poised to post some runs behind Mike Leake. The Nationals 8-6 at home are money loser and Reds having one of the best home record in contrast to second from last road record with a too wide of a gap. On the average talent of star players do not vary from field to field this much and should correct itself. The Nationals bullpen is suspect.
 Riding Leake and the Reds to take a rare road win for a small redemption.

CINCINNATI REDS +103 for 1 unit(L)

Friday, April 26, 2013

MLB Friday

6-7 -410

Sorry fellas. Took a brief hiatus, but now I'm back and will take on the Diamond with furious vengeance.  Come join me for the ride.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Back to Dodger Stadium in the Chavez Ravine. One of the last great stadium to stand amongst all the modern stadiums around the Majors.  This is one of the most beautiful too and this park along with other NL West stadiums is known as the "pitchers park". The tradition of small ball is deeply rooted and commands low scoring, grind out baseball. Today we have Josh Becket for the home Blue and Hiram Burgos for the Brew Crew. Contrary to the tradition these pitchers here do not dominate the field. Not only that, Brewers were on terror with their bats before the runs went cold against Volqueaz at San Diego. This pattern will likely to return to ample scoring against the veteran righty, Beckett. The trend will note Beckett as mid level starter capable of having a good game (he pitched a pattern low game likely to bounce back), but won't bet on it.  The Brewers Hiram Burgos is coming off a pretty good game, but at home against the lowly Cubs?     5 innings of work gave up 1 on 5 hits with 83 pitches just sounds like many other pitchers who has faced the Cubs, I mean the Cubs are O/U 7-15 what does that tell you? Not much credit on Burgos resume. Dodgers bats are starting to warm, they're O/U 12-9, but 8-2 in last 10.. The line is dropping, but I think the direction is wrong. As the play goes, we will move against the grain. Taking the Over will dropping total.

Game Total OVER 7 at -115 for 1 unit(W)

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

MLB Tuesday

6-6 +590

Kind of moving sideways, but adjustments will occur accordingly.  Don't panic or make irrational move, like trying to double up, because that's what gamblers do. Play the percentages and the unit size should reflect about 3% to 5% of your bankroll, could be smaller if your roll is large, and stay focused on the games.

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees
It\s interleague game and I"m not a fan of these games. Today I'll make a exception with red hot Arizona making a visit to the Bronx.  Yanks picked up pace on the road, came home and won the Baltimore series on the third game. NY won the Baltimore series with their pitching and once again the bats have cooled. Tdoay with Nova taking the mound Yankees are coming around the bottom of their rotation where they have had problems. Arizona will send may have started slow, but is a known quality pitcher.with success in AL while with Oakland.  Backing Arizona.


Sunday, April 14, 2013

MLB Monday

6-5 +1,790

Taking the early game.

Tampa Rays at Boston Red Sox
These two teams battle in AL East and both teams projected to finish low in divison before the start of season. Boston has bucked that notion playing atop the division at 7-4. Pitching and defense has held opponents to under 3 runs in 5 out of last 6. 4 of those games were 1 runs or less.  Tampa has not been scoring and their road trip has been a offensive struggle. The posted total is fairly low 8.5, suggesting another defensive oriented game.  However the pitchers today will pose a threat to the Under trend. Jeremy Hellickson is getting hit, his last game against Boston only lasted 4 innings and last April Fenway appearance  was rocked for 5 rims 3 homers in 5 innings. Ryan Dempster with control issues can give up free passes and have yet to go beyond 5 innings. Looking for scoring in bunches.

Game Total OVER 8.5 at -120 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Sunday

6-4 +2,790

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
It's Sunday baseball and we have Doc Halladay taking the ball after two forgettable starts. Doc will return to Miami where he recorded his last win in 2012.  As good as Halladay has been over the years there has been significant decline through 2012 season including this spring and the dominant presence is not there. Kevin Slowey for Miami is another quality pitcher without a win who is keeping his team in striking distance. Going against Doc Halladay and taking Miami at home.

MIAMI MARLINS +121 for 1 unit(L)
That was Doc in his old form. 2-1 Philadelphia

Saturday, April 13, 2013

MLB Saturday

5-4 +1,790

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Marlins at 2-9 looks like they're in for another long season, but before you write them off they will send young Jose Fernandez to the mound. This kid can pitch. He came up on the fast track from 2011 amateur draft and prior to this season ranked #7 MLB prospect. He is a Cuban defector 220lbs at 6'4" who has hit 99mph on the radar gun and major league level breaking pitch. His debut was impressive against the Mets and economical, 3 hits 1 run, 8 K's, 1 BB in 5 innings at 80 pitches for no decision, was in line for the win, but Mets rallied in the 9th.  He'll definitely go more than 80 pitches.  Philadelphia started on the wrong foot but, on the way to recovery winning last 3 and now the record stands at 5-5. Cole Hamels going for the Phillies is also trying to recover.  Both of his starts were dismal, but Hamels is a proven quality pitcher and he will likely get back on track. Phillies have been crushing the ball at Citizens Ballpark, 5 Over's out of 6 home games but, offensive production drops on the road and today's pitchers will not help the Over.  Miami is suffering power outage and have only scored more than 3 runs once. Obviously Miami is playing Under. I like this game to go Under 7.5

Game Total UNDER 7.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, April 12, 2013

MLB Friday

5-3 +2,790

Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Here's one of those Aprils surprise with KC 6-3 with 4 winners in a row. The Royals had a great spring Cactus League and their momentum is carrying into April games.  Toronto at 3-6 is heading the wrong way. The Blue Jays are expected contenders this season, but have yet to get traction. The Jays are the better team on paper, but looking at how these two teams are playing right now I don't see the edge and KC's starting pitcher Luis Mendoza looks like he's going to break out and looks strong now.  Toronto's J.A. Happ was solid in his last start, but 1 hit over 5 innings is above his performance.  Happ's performance likely to drop on the road today. Going with Kansas City

KANSAS CITY ROYALS at +101 for 1 unit(L)

Thursday, April 11, 2013

MLB Thursday

4-3 +1,470

Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels are falling behind, although still April, irritated are the fans of  Southland baseball.  Maybe not alarmed, but irritated and they should be for all the bells and whistles Angels were tooting all along prior to the start of this season. the record so far is 2-6 and their 2013 opener is 0-2 on verge of a sweep by a division foe. The Angels are assured of another losing series even if they salvage this one.  Making three series down the drain, Cincy, Texas and Oakland, which makes this game a stopper game. Oakland has been playing hot, but the wagering public is decidedly on the Angles stopper game. It's up to Jason Vargas to cool the Oakland bats and it's not like Angels are so cold, but the batters are losing the battle with runners on scoring position. The A's, A.J. Griffin, is a tough pitcher in tradition with Oakland pitching.  I don't think he's going to give in even on a stopper game with Angels powerful line up. The line has swung towards the Angels and road team has swept this series twice last season. Backing the surging Oakland with Griffin as the "Road dog" for one more blow to the Angels.

OAKLAND A's +132 for 1 unit(W)

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

MLB Wednesday

4-2 +2,500

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
We have two lefties on the mound today. Jonathan Sanchez for the Bucks against Wade Miley. Sanchez has been a "fade" pitcher dating back to last season and he dropped his last start at L.A., but his command was there only walked one, got grounders and struck out 4. On the other side Miley looked good in his last start in Milwaukee. Scattered 5 gave 1 run via the home run ball, but that was it Arizona put up 3 and Wade held it. The Diamondbacks are hitting the ball, 3rd in NL also 3rd in OPS, last April the Diamondbacks went O/U 9-3 at home. They are in salvage mode dropping the first two as a home favorite and many are on the Snakes to take the third game. The price is pretty high at -177, but considering the unusual scoring out burst from the Pirates in the first two games and two lefties on the mound. The Under maybe the better low profile play. D-Back games are slightly higher total with expected production of runs in the desert, but not quite hitting the Overs like last season. Maybe the Zona games will sail Over in the summer, but so far it's been coming up short. Besides Pittsburgh is not going to help the Over cause with Miley facing them down.

Game Total UNDER 9 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

MLB Tuesday

3-2 +1,500

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
The NL west will be the featured game today. Got a couple of familiar pitchers taking the mound, Josh Beckett for the Dodgers and Clayton Richards for the Pads, in a home opener for San Diego. Both of these clubs are showing up at the bottom of MLB scoring and as the history goes pitchers control the game at PetCo Park and both of these clubs are known for pitching, right? Well, both pitchers did start a bit shaky and we do have a very low total of 6.5 on the board. But the other factor here is maybe San Diego is forcing some changes to this pitcher friendly confines. This park has been reconfigured to make it a bit easier for the ball to get out. Like the idea? let's see if the theory holds up in real game situation. Richards is a home run pitcher and Josh is not going to over power hitters. Taking advantage of the smaller park.
This is the new PetCo Park.

• The distance down the right-field line will remain the same at 322 feet.
• From the right-field porch to the right-center field gap, the fence will be moved in 11 feet and lowered to match the sub-eight-foot height in left and center field.
• The out-of-town scoreboard will be relocated.
• At right-center field, the distance will decrease from 402 feet to 391 feet.
• The distance at straightaway center field will remain the same at 396 feet.
• The deepest portion of the left-center field gap will be decreased from 402 feet to 390 feet.
• The home bullpen will be reconfigured to allow for the visitors' bullpen to be relocated from the field to the area behind the home bullpen.
• The dimensions from left-center field to the left-field foul line will remain the same.
• The distance at straightaway left field will remain the same at 357 feet.
• The distance down the left-field line will remain the same at 336 feet.

Going Over for the Opener in San Diego.

Game Total OVER 6.5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)
3-9 San Diego, hows that for going Over!

Monday, April 08, 2013

MLB Monday

2-1 +1,320

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
The pitchers on the mound for NY is Hiroki Kuroda, stable No#2  who will try to follow up on CC's strong outing. Kuroda coming off a short game due to a line drive hitting his hand. He's been cleared to pitch and has expressed some discomfort, but a true warrior he will take the ball. How effective is still to be seen, but importantly 2-4 Yankees are looked upon as a battered underdog. Which is true with all the injuries to their star players, but this is deep pocket Yankees and fill in guys like Vernon Wells, Kevin Youkillis and Travis Hafner are performing. Yanks still have Cano, Overbay and Ichiro enough to over come any short coming. Cleveland Indians are feeling good with a retooled team not much memories of dreadful 2012 and coming off a game crushing Tampa and their ace. Although dropping the Tampa series the Indians are 3-3 taking the Toronto series all on the road. Coming home to take on the Yankees will be euphoric eruption from the Cleveland baseball fans, tickets sold out in first 6 minutes, and there's good things to expect for 2013 Indians. Ubaldo Jimenez will take the ball in this Cleveland opener and he was solid against the powerful Blue Jays line up. As the build up of this game goes Indians are favored, but the line is shrinking. We are backing the Yanks as a dog in early going as this team is likely to return to .500 and they will feast on Central division teams other than the Tigers.

NEW YORK YANKEES +118 for 1 units(W)
Yankee bats come alive 11-6 NY

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Kevin Correia for the Twins against Ervin Santana. Kevin is coming off 7 solid innings against the powerful Tigers line up and Twins stole that game in the 9th. Ervin took the loss against the White Sox and he hopes to turn it around in pitcher friendly Kauffman stadium. However Ervin's change from LA to KC may not help his decline. The early season has been telling and Santana failed miserablaly last early season while Kevin Correia is a fast start pitcher. The Twins finished bottom of AL, but the Royals was also slow out of the gates and this differential is too big for KC.

MINNESOTA TWINS +126 for 1 unit(L)
Kevin was solid, but 3-1 Kansas City. 

1-1 +180 day.   

Wednesday, April 03, 2013

MLB Wednesday

Regular Season 1-0 +1,320

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
To the South side of Chicago for a match up between the Royals and the White Sox.  The pitchers today is Ervin Santana, his first season with the Royals, and the battle tested Jake Peavy.  If you recall the past appearances of Peavy on the mound you know he was often the quality pitcher on the mound getting no run support and taking the single run loss. Peavy in 2012 got off to a fast start pitching 7 quality games in a row. In contrast Santana dropped 6 in a row only pitching 1 quality game in April 2012. Chicago holds the better card and playing at home, but in Spring baseball KC bats were the hottest in Phoenix. Also Peavy has struggled against the Roylas dropping all of his starts against KC last season with 5.68 ERA and the Royals will return most of their 2012 players.  We are looking to take this game Over as the anticipated 7.5 is a low American League Total.  This game may trend Under, but  looks very reachable. 

Game Total OVER 7.5 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
2-5 White Sox

Late game.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodogers
NL West premier match up the World Champion Giants visit the new management, free spending with big bucks Dodgers. Block out all the noise and tonight's pitchers need to prove quality or even in the pitcher friendly confine of Dodger's Stadium scores will come.  Timmy Lincecum April and May 2012 was absolute Over and went 2-12 in first 14 starts.  Josh Beckett made the AL to NL move last season returning to the pitchers league, but his quality game diminished. Cactus League numbers are mediocre for both pitchers.

Game Total OVER 7 at -103 for 1 unit(W)

Split the games.

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

MLB Tuesday

Last season Seattle opened against Oakland with Felix on the mound against Brandon McCarthy in Tokyo resulting in 3-1 10th inning Seattle win. Seattle went on to split that series in Tokyo than took 2 games back in Oakland.  2011 was another Seattle series opener in Oakland with Felix taking the first game and finishing the series 2-1 Seattle.  Overall the A's performance at home in the first half was patchy at best. They were rarely favored making their sub .500 performance still profitable. This year same two teams opened in Oakland with the A's Brett Anderson starting against Felix and the result was same Seattle winner, 2-0 (we won that game and that opener in Tokyo). Why should the A's be favored this much on game 2 ? Yes, Mariners lose on the road, Oakland has not been kind, but the difference is April baseball.  Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound for the M's and this pitcher is on the rise, maybe a breakout year, looking impressive in late spring.  Jarrod Parker No#2 in A's rotation may not be up to form, yet. Jarrod got 29 games 181 innings last season and Oakland pitchers are always dangerous. However this is a Oakland fade simple as it maybe we are going Mariners in early season getting plus money.

SEATTLE MARINERS +132 for 1 unit(W)
 (Got it at +132 last night it's +120 now at 5dimes)
Oakland only got 3 hits and Iwakuma was spot on 7-1 Mariners