MLB Friday

(14-5 +10,740)
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
This game will feature two good pitchers in a righty lefty match up. Drew Smyly is the lefty for Detroit pitching excellent games on top of money winnings in the Tigers rotation. Jake Peavy righty for the White Sox is also the top money pitcher for Chicago. If you look at past match ups the Tigers have taken most of the wins and majority of those wins were not even close. However the most recent series was won by the Sox and Peavy was the first game winner. As much as everyone likes the Tigers at home their home record is below .500 and Chicago is a very good road team. I also think the White Sox pen is better. Looking for Peavy and the White Sox to take this game on the road.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX  +100 for 1 unit(L)
This game was in the bottom of 9th with Chicago leading and Thornton blew the save. 5-4

MLB Thursday

(13-5 +9,390)
Toronto Blue Jay at Anaheim Angels

Dan Haren is painting the corners for the Angels and it looks like the Halos are starting to roll. I think the Angels are heading in the right direction and Weaver going no no in their last game has some euphoria in the air. With everything going Angels way I'm going the other way, Blue Jays and Brandon Morrow, one of the best on the road, up against one of the most over valued pitcher on Angels rotation.

Dan Haren 3 quality starts out of 5 with Angels losing 4 of those starts. Dan has pitched 2 quality starts out of 3 home starts and Angels have been defeated in all three home starts. Dan is coming off a win at Cleveland, 2-1, 8 innings 4 hit 1 run game. I feel this number will decline today at home. Dan Haren is the 2nd biggest money loser in the rotation behind Santana. Losing games have all been as favorites ranging from -140 to -180.
Brandon Morrow also 3 quality starts out of 5 with Jays 3 - 2. Brandon's road starts is quality 2 for 2 with Jays winning both. Brandon's road performance 0.66 ERA with 0.88 WHIP, lights out. Brandon is coming off a win against Seattle, 7-0, 6 innings 5 hit no run game. I can't see him pitching any better, but maybe he'll go 7 innings. Jay's pen is also better on the road and Angels pen are work in progress.


 Toronto Blue Jay +135 for 1 unit(W)


5-0 Blue Jays win! Brandon Morrow you da man! 9 innings 3 hit NO run complete game baby!

MLB Tuesday

(12-4 +9,770)
Irrational exuberance last night. One of those strange day I guess.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
D-Backs sitting just above .500, but actually playing better on the road (6-4) will make their visit to National Park. Trevor Cahill will get the call and so far he is also better on the road.
For the home team Jordan Zimmerman who has been a work horse and pitching quality games. He is also known as one of the least run supported pitcher in the league.

DIAMONDBACKS at NATIONALS  
Total UNDER 6.5 at -106 for 1 unit(W)


Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
One of Jays top prospect a.k.a. Hutch will go up against Rangers closer turned starter Feliz. Jays pitcher has good movement on his fastball and good change up. If Hutch's locating strikes he'll keep the Jays in game. Texas pitcher Feliz is going to come at you and he can throw fireballs. These two pitchers may seem like two comers Feliz is much further along in MLB experience plus Texas is the best on the road.

TEXAS RANGERS -138 for 1 unit(L) 

MLB Monday

(10-2 +9,820)
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Although New York Yankees have played the nemesis of O's for many years and 2012 has yielded similar results, so far, this Baltimore team has gained momentum and strength since these two teams last met. Just from the line perspective the Orioles are under priced by far.
We have good pitching match up, but I'd give Baltimore the edge with Hammel on the rise. Hiroki for the Yanks is a warrior too, but I see too many hits as Kuroda's years maybe starting to show. I think the starters will give 6 innings plus today. For the bull pen coming into play they are pretty much even play. Orioles on revenge play with hot pitcher as the under dog.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES +153 for 1 unit(L)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES RL +1.5 at -140 for 1 unit(W)
BALTIMORE at YANKEES Under 9 at -105 for 1 unit(W)


Had our chance, but both pitchers were excellent and Kuroda beat us.


Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
This game with crooked line has Padres written on it. Taking the line near closing window. There's not much time to give this game analysis. The consensus is on Milwaukee like white on rice go the other way.

SAN DIEGO PADRES -105(L)


The late game was the killer, hate it when that happems ! 

MLB Sunday

(9-2 +8,820 units)
Missed Saturday post.  Saturday post are very difficult because it lands after Friday. One's mind may not be as clear as it should be. At least you know I put some effort into my workmanship.


Anaheim Angels at Cleveland Indians

Dan Haren goes 8 innings to stop the bleeding in Cleveland. Angels off to one of their worst start in years are 7-14. Working off a rare win Ervin Santana will take the mound. He did shut down the Indians on last season's visit, but this is not the same Santana.
2012 edition Ervin Santana with 4 games started has yet to pitch a quality outing. His last start, opposing Tampa Rays & David Price, gave up 8 hits 5 runs and very disturbing 4 home runs. That makes 4 games in a row with multiple long balls given up by Santana. Along with Ervin's decline his team has recorded 0 runs in his last 3 starts. He needs to Pitch quality and Angels need runs both sounding like a tall order right now against Derek Lowe (Lowe & Gomez are the top money pitchers for the Indians). Tribe kept it close yesterday and the day before, but that was facing Weaver & Haren. Lowe has been quality and his 2 home starts boasts 0.69 ERA & 1.16 WHIP. Lowe is inducing grounders and slumping Angels line up will have tough time scoring again. Indian bats are quiet too and considered UNDER 8.5, but Ervin might not help. Going Indians at home, although home has not been as friendly as the road Angels are bad home & away. So Lowe to dampen thing for the visiting Angels. The Indians are leading AL Central and Angels are in the dark, in the basement, looking for the stairway to AL West.

CLEVELAND INDIANS -110 for 1 unit(W)


How did you like that one! How many runs for the Angels? 0 and Indians 4. Santana pitched a good game, but Lowe looked like he was going to finish that one. Chris Perez shut the door in the 9th with 15 pitches, did you see him eat up Albert Pujois?,  and man oh man! Santana gets another 0 run from his mates.

MLB Friday

(8-2 +7,420)
Back on track looking for more! Padres edge out the last game against Washington Nationals and take the game late. That's two games in a row that had you by the skin on your neck.

Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
It's the lefty righty match up with Wandy Rodriguez for the Stros and righty Mike Leake for the Reds. This angle is similar to what I saw with Giants coming to town. Houston offense is on the rise with moving average in +1.5 scoring differential against opponents. Mike Leake has not been quality and Wandy is throwing 0.71 WHIP on the road. Yeah, I remember last September when Arroyo opposed Rodriguez and despite Wandy pitching a gem Arroyo did one better with a complete game shut out. I'm sure Wandy remembers too. The Reds are not to be taken lightly they took two series back to back, but at this price taking the Astros and Wandy Rodriguez.

HOUSTON ASTROS +140 for 1 unit(W)


Thank you I'll take that in large bills.

MLB Thursday

(7-2 +6,420)
Coming off a close winner yesterday. I know you guys don't like the close one's, but there are no automatics and you got to respect them lines.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
The Nationals are good, very good, and Padres are bad, very bad, but no team wants to get swept especially at home. That's what"s brewing tonight at Petco and the lines have been choppy. Both teams have crossed over from favorites to underdogs. If you like the Nats it's a good time to pull the trigger, but it's been dropping since the line up came up or maybe slightly before it became public. We will take a shot on the Padres. Jackson pitching for Washington got rocked by Houston and maybe the weak link in Nationals rotation. Volquez for San Diego had a nice outing against Phillies at home, he's had 2 nice outings at home. I think the Public looks Nats with last match up blasting San Diego and not many games gets by the Nationals, but line doesn't like them. No sweep at Petco park tonight.

SAN DIEGO PADRES ML +100 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Wednsday

(6-2 +5,420)
Mat Latos came into form last night and Cain got shelled. Expect the unexpected as they say and we move on.

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Not exactly an under the radar type of game, but far as trying to figure the out come we got Feldman on the rebound and Hughes, though winner of last game, is touch and go. So rubber match with some unknown for the starters and most likely the pen will come into play.
It has the making of high scoring game, but it seems these games are always set too high.  I think that's the case here today.

NEW YORK YANKEES at TEXAS RANGERS 
TOTAL UNDER 10.5 at -110(W)


Play that hook baby! Texas 7 - Yankees 3 UNDER 10.5

MLB Tuesday

(6-1 +6,450)
Sup gang? Did we or did we not rock yesterday? Yes we did! 4-1 Blue Jays going UNDER 8 and sweeping the Royals. Morrow was quality with 6 2/3 innings and so was Chen 7 innings in 3 run ball game.

SF Giants at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds welcome SF Giants to Great American Ballpark. The Reds and Latos returned from their 10 game road trip, got Monday off, waiting on the Giants. Probably had some chance to catch a bit of that Giants vs Mets double header. Maybe the Giants come in little worn? Regardless of the situation entering this series the Reds have swept the Giants at home  and 5 out of 7 wins last season. But Latos, a new addition, has not pitched to his expectation. Mat Latos has been disappointing so far and his expectation is high return to his form is likely at some point, but it's hard to speculate if the home field is going to it here. Giants coming off an offensive awakening along with Cain makes them very dangerous. Past match up makes this line close, but Giants offense on the rise with strong starter makes them the play.

SF GIANTS ML -103 for 1 unit(L)


That was terrible.

MLB Monday

(5-1 +5,450)
OK the game got PPD and maybe I should of saw that one coming. Hope to make up that one on Monday's game.

 Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals

The Blue Jays on top of east is feasting on the Royals or Kansas City cursed at Kauffman stadium? The lines are tight with Brandon Morrow for the Jays and Bruce Chen for the Royals at -104, but LV Hilton got the Royals at even money! I guess if any one's going to break the home slaughter on the 4th game of this losing series it's got to be Chen he has been quality and Morrow has trouble with the Royals.... Maybe so, but most will take Toronto and whoever visiting Kauffman until the Royals right their home field.

What's interesting here is the Total 8. By virtue of Toronto's games (10-4 O/U) and Kansas City 50%(7-7 O/U). Also looking at both teams average runs and runs allowed makes this Total pretty low.
It does have the appearance of a low Total, but this series, unlike other series Jays have faced at home, is not sailing OVER and as for the Totals in this series O/U is 1-1 With 1 push. The Royals in previous series against Detroit went all three UNDERs with Chen right in there 7 innings 2 run ball game. This being the 4th game of another home loser I expect Royals to tighten up. Also Morrow's away game was a beauty in Cleveland, 7 innings 1 hit 2 run with 0.57 WHIP, and change of scene may do him some good. Looking for a tight low scoring game to go UNDER 8.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS at KANSAS CITY ROYALS 
TOTAL UNDER 8 at -107(W)


If you look up "Misery"  you'll see the Royals, but UNDER 8 pure winner!

MLB Saturday

(5-1 +5,450)
Yes I'm late for Saturday games, but coming in flush into the weekend there was no need to rush yourself. As players it's important to be in the grind, but knowing when your ahead of your game is knowing when to take your money. Buy yourself something nice treat yourself. How about that for my angle today. No? your a degenerate who can't get enough? It is one's test to control and know how to stay out of harms way. It's Saturday better put on your good shoes for stepping out. Tip for Sunday's Fish at Nats game is for the game to go UNDER 6.5

MLB Friday

(4-1 +4,450)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

 Greeting Players! Coming off a crushing win yesterday. Moving on to Wrigley Field where the struggling Cubs will host the Reds. Cincinnati lost their series at St Louis, but managed to salvage the last game. Taking a stab on runs scored & allowed differential in recent games. You will clearly see Reds are playing the tighter game. The Cubs on a fade here and play on the Reds.

  CINCINNATI REDS -119(W)

MLB Thursday

(2-1 +2,020)
Houston Astros at Washington Nationals
Nationals are playing well and it has been impressive to see them come from behind to take late game wins. Today the Astros will go against Edwin Jackson coming off a complete game winner not even breaking 100 pitch count. Stros in danger of getting swept and has not won a series since opening against Colorado April 6 to 8th. Houston will send Bud Norris to salvage the 4th game of this series. The road has been brutal for Houston 1-5 so far, but Norris has been the man on the mound for 2 of 4 game winners and likely scenario will be another close game. Take the Astros Run line +1.5 with decent shot to take this on the ML, but RL is the strong play. Houston 4-8 ML record is just the opposite of 8-4 RL record. Astros yet to be swept in 2012 and Norris is a good pitcher to back.

HOUSTON ASTROS RL +1.5 at -165(W)
*smaller play on Houston ML at +143(W)

Houston takes this one with ease. Did not need the extra run and win both wagers!

MLB Tuesday

1-1 +570
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays.
Tampa stops the bleeding in their last game at Boston with Shields out pitching Bard, but their 7th of 10 game road trip continues to Toronto and opponents are simply killing the Run Line on the road (-1.9 runs inflate to -3.5 runs). Jeff Niemann has matched up well against Jays last season, but Rays have shaky pen. Romero was dominating in his last start against Boston, ND at Cleveland before that. Looks like he's continuing strong pitching from Spring training, he did not give up a hit in 11 innings of work with 10K and 2BB. Toronto 6-3 on Run Line. Backing Ricky Romero and the Jays to win it by 2 runs or better at the Rogers Centre(why do they spell it like that?) formerly known as the Sky Dome.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS RL -1.5 +145 (W)

MLB Friday

1-0 +1,570
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

Two veteran pitchers go tonight. Wolf for the Brewers and Juarrjens for the Braves. Both pitchers are coming off losses taking some knocks inflating their ERA. Both pitchers would like to right the ship get back to their form and Braves are risking quite heavily on Jurrjens to step up on the opener at Turner Field. Even with Wolf being historically bad at Turner Jair may have fundamental issues with drop in velocity. Weakness has plagued him all spring. I'll take the Lefty over the righty in Atlanta. Brewers has not been shy about taking games on the road and certain irrelevant factors are pushing this line.

Milwaukee Brewers +114 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Sunday

Sunday baseball is baseball. Where else should you be but a baseball field somewhere on a sunny Sunday afternoon? Why not ponder what will unfold? Be amazed and sit at the edge of your seat? For that 3 hours or there about forget all your worries, count every pitch, watch every move and get caught up in the game.
I like the Royals today at Anaheim Angels. They looked better over the past two games. Don't forget Ervin Santana on April 2, 2011 in Kansas City pitching the Angels Opener. Santana came out of that game with a ND, but Angels went on to lose that game, Jepsen gave up 2 runs at bottom of 8th, 5-4 and Santana's season went on to 11-12 with 33 starts. That was a demise from 17-10 in 33 starts in 2010. Santana's support was lacking in 2011 April, attributed to 3 starts Angels lost by a single run, and Santana finished April 2011 going 1-3. This is also combined with poor September showing which is something you don't want to see in a pitcher your backing.
Jonathan Sanchez in his first appearance as a Royal. He is on a bounce back year with limited appearance last season, went on DL in late June with left biceps tendinitis, though he try to hide it, and there was control struggles leading to that point. There was also Zito coming back from DL at the same time Giants were growing short on Sanchez. Is he better than Santana here? As the line indicates Sanchez is questionable, he even got hit during Spring Training, but can't really judge him as a Royal just yet as you can with Santana as an Angel. Royals has given Santana troubles, de ja vu to the Halos Opening series.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS +157 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Saturday

There are different school of thoughts to test the waters in MLB. I take little bit from all the schools, mostly old school, and put that in the mix, but what I'm really looking for is misperception or misrepresentation. The quality of early underdogs can be richly inflated though inflated lines alone can not be used as indicating factor. From this point reflecting on spring performance can bring clues to April out comes. Key in some statistical numbers to plug iin and shed some light on today's games.

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Cubs coming off a late game loser where the pen gave up the game. Cubs are a short favorite again and Matt Garza will take the mound. Opposing will be Gio Gonzalez for the Nationals. The Cubs have not dropped two straight home opener since 2008, but Garza has signs of a slow starter, 2-6 before turning his game last season.
Gonzalez, coming off a season in which he recorded career bests in wins (16), ERA (3.12) and strikeouts (197) with the Athletics, was traded to Washington in December. In 10 Interleague starts during his four years in the American League, Gonzalez was 3-3 and he has value.
The Nationals bring a much better team this season and the take will be on the money and alternate run line giving -1.5 for the boost.
Good luck players!

WASHINGTON NATIONALS +111 for 1 unit(W)
WASHINGTON NATIONALS ALT RUN LINE +170 for 1 unit(W)

Fell into place nicely today. Love them feisty Nats

Quick it's almost game time

Toronto Blue Jays at N.Y. Yankees
It's not that Jays play weak but, more so of Yankees surge.

Yanks -129(L)

Cactus League Monday

Red at Rangers
Scheduled pitchers: Reds – Jeff Francis (still in hunt for 5th spot on the rotation. Playing well this spring with 2 rims 5 base runners over 8 innings pitched)
Bill Bray (returned from groin injury pitched in Friday's minor league game, was rusty, slated to pitch here)
Jose Arrendondo (2nd year back from Tommy John surgery with 6.43 ERA in Cactus league, but 4 of his 5 runs came in 1 of his 6 outings. Also 11 K's and 2 BB so far)
Nick Masset (Not having a good spring, but potential set up man)

Scheduled pitchers. Rangers – Scott Feldman (back from microfracture surgery on his right knee. Expected long relief and spot start)
Mark Lowe (middle relief man with mid 90's plus fastball, but spot is his to lose against Uehara and Tateyama)
Joe Nathan (New closer in town. Getting up in age and his velocity is down)
Joe Beimel (34 years old lefty looking for a spot in the pen)
Mike Adams (one of the top relievers in the game. Still developing arm strength with late start this spring)

Reds might seem like they're tinkering around, but that maybe more true for the Rangers as they can't seem to get a win at home. I definitely think Reds have the value in this match up.

So much for my non sense with Texas clobbering the Reds at home.

MLB Sunday

Colorado Rockies at St Louis Cardinals

Taking cue from MLB Pre game headline "Jackson looks to set tone for Card's rotation" fireballer Edwin Jackson taking mound for the Red Birds at home. St Louis need to make their stand now and acquisition, Jackson, is a important piece to get the job done today. Esmil Rogers has been on the winning side, but his quality game is lacking. The Cardinals look promising today. However the game is never as is on the surface and it's easy to underestimate a visiting opponent 11.5 games back in their division. I must go against the Cardinals with so much perception with look ahead attitude. Colorado has gone about their business on this road trip and possibly come home with winning trip if they can take this game today. The Rockies have matched up well against St Louis and good chance for these pitchers to have ND in this out come. Rox hold the bull pen advantage and we will back Colorado on a late game take.

ROCKIES +145(L)

MLB Sunday

Philadelphia Phillies at S.F. Giants
Oz getting the ball for the red hot Phills going up against the Freak. Despite decline on road & home performance for both pitchers one thing stands clear. Lincecum has been quality and this is a good spot for Giants to stop the Phillies win streak.

Giants -130(W)

MLB All Star

National League(W)

MLB Wednesday

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Joshua Colimenter trying to bounce back for the D-Backs against Yovani Gallardo 9-5 going for the Brew crew. Both pitchers have ERA and WHIP rising. Both teams are hitting very well. But this game calls for the Under.

Arizona / Milwaukee Under 8.5(W)

MLB Sunday

Sundays in Summer time is Baseball as fireworks are for 4th of July. You got to get that grill ready, season them ribs, glaze the chickens, chill the beers, wine for the ladies we'll get this party started right. It's a long weekend fellas, but don't sweat the expenses you can put it down on this.

San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
Featuring starting pitchers Matt Latos and Mariners rookie Blake Beavan. Do not be fooled by pitchers capable of allowing the game to get out of hand. The nature of both of these teams are to grind out low scores and this total is staying at low 6.5 runs. Take the Under.

Padres / Mariners Under 6.5(W)

MLB Wednesday

Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners
I like good pitching match ups and this should be a good one with Derek Lowe and King Felix. The Total is low as expected, but Seattle line is a bit fishy. I like Lowe to come through today with a better line up.

Atlanta Braves +130(W)

MLB Tuesday

KC Royals at San Diego Padres
Felipe Paulino opposite Clayton Richard. I wouldn't say these are Over pitchers, but the tendencies are there. The match up has been very much Over and this game Total is dropping as the deadline draws close.


Royals / Padres OVER 6.5(L)

Cleveland Indians at Arizona Diamondbacks
Josh Tomlin for the Tribe against Daniel Hudson for the Snakes. This is another game where the Total has dropped. Games in Phoenix is slightly Under so far this season, but this number under estimates how hitter friendly this place is. This one goes Over.

Indians / Diamondbacks Over 8(W)

MLB Saturday

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Jair Jurrjens going for another win and there is no doubt he will put away the struggling Padres at home. It's not so much that Dustin is pitching bad, but his team is not winning. We will take this on the RL.

ATLANTA BRAVES -1.5 +105(W)

MLB Friday

Tampa Bay at Houston
This game will feature good pitching with Shields and Rodriguez. I feel Houston will take this one, but more so with UNDER 7 runs Total. This number dipped to 6.5 before rebounding back to 7. Though the teams are playing higher Over percentage the match up is very much Under

RAUS / ASTROS UNDER 7(W)

MLB Thursday

Last pick loser. I'm in need of stringing some winners.

Phillies at Cardinals
Philadelphia going for the sweep sending Oswalt to the mound. St Louis looking to make a stand with Carpenter taking the ball. In the seasons past this match up would of sent the Total spiraling down, but 2011 version is a bit different. Oswalt 1 win since late April and 1-5 during the 8 appearance. The former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter is 1-7 last 2 starts have been forgettable 9 ER in 14 innings. Considering the outcome of first 2 games St Louis is in need of a statement game at home, but I do not like the Cardinals line and Phillies are playing so good why not go agains the low Total. Might be easier than Cardinals stopping the sweep

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / ST LOUIS CARDINALS UNDER 7.5(W)

MLB Tuesday

Pardon my absence. I left off with a winner on my last post so I hope there are no bitter feelings.

Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals
Phillies with Doc Halladay and they are the road favorite. Kyle Mclellan with step in for the home team and he's kept the Red Birds in game. But the thought I have here is this game going Under. Yes, Doc's games have been going Over and St Louis are 41-29-1 Over. This game wants you to take the Over at 7.5 and I think this one stays low.

Phillies at Cardinals UNDER 7.5(L)

MLB Friday

Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners
Phillies come to Seattle hot, winners of 7 straight, to start their interleague games. Visitors will send Roy Oswalt, 4-4 with Phillies team record 5-6, who is a high caliber pitcher, but performance has been lacking and he was having back issues. Mariners will go with Michael Pineda who is winless in June, but don't let that fool you he has been quality. Pineda looks to improve tonight from his last outing and maybe the bicostal trip will have Philadelphia a bit off balance.

SEATTLE MARINERS -103(W)

MLB Thursday

S.F. Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy for the Snakes is pretty good, 7-2 with D-Backs 9-4, but he's a road pitcher and the Giants have been a thorn. Ryan Vogelsong has been money and this spot I look for him to improve over his last outing against the Reds at AT&T on June 10th where he did not qualify for the 3-2 Gaints win. S.F. Giants are A.Z. D-Backs nemesis. Going against late line movement and taking advantage of rise in value. You may feel the D-Backs are due maybe so, but most likely not here.

S.F. Giants +129(L)

MLB Wednesday

L.A. Angels at Seattle Mariners
Santana away against Bedard
Going for Seattle to stop the sweep with Bedard pitching in mid season form. Santana's pitch count has been piling in recent games.

SEATTLE MARINERS -117(W)

MLB Monday

Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros
Derek Lowe pitches well on the road and Wandy Rodriguez prefers home cooking. Houston Astros get Wandy back from elbow troubles, but it maybe too little too late. The Astros are facing 4 game home sweep by the hands of Atlanta Braves. Normally I would go against the sweep, especially at home, and Wandy Rodriguez would hold as a value pitcher at 3-3. Rodriguez 3 out of 4 quality at home and pitched great in May. But because it's his first game back you'll need to weigh in on Houston bull pen. Houston Astros pen sport 10-13 Saves to Blown Saves, the worst in baseball, and fourth worst ERA.
Atlanta Braves taking 7 in a row, 8 of last 10. Derek Lowe 6 out of 8 quality starts on the road. He's had this match up earlier in season winning 3-1 and Braves are killing the Astros.

Braves -125(L)

MLB Sunday

Cincinnati Reds at S.F. Giants
Edinson Volquez is a money winning pitcher for the Reds rotation. He comes off a 7 inning gem against the Cubs. But I don't like him on the road and will back Jonathan Sanchez. G-men at home with Sanchez on the mound has come down in price. Take the discounted home favorite.

S.F. Giants -106(W)

MLB Saturday

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
Michael Pineda against Max Scherzer
I like the away and home situation for both of these pitchers.
Pineda 6 out of 6 quality start going Under 3 out of last 4, 2-4 away. Scherzer 5 out of 7 quality home start. 2-5 Under at home.

Good luck players!
UNDER 7.5 at +105(L)

MLB Friday

Dodgers at Rockies
Chad Billingsley against Jhoulys Chadin at Coors Field. Dodgers blow their lead yesterday as the bull pen gave it up. Rockies lost the series in L.A. just recently and they are looking for payback. Rockies come home and start on a good note. The trip against the West was less than satisfactory losing L.A. series, S.F. series and a rubber match win over S.D. series. Rockies will need to make up ground at home. The Dodgers left town after the Colorado series. They've won Cincinnati series, lost Philadelphia series and now they are in Colorado. Scoring tapered off in Philadelphia, but it's back in Denver. Going with Billingsley and the Dodger at Colorado. The power surge continues for the Dodgers.

L.A. Dodgers +144(L)

MLB Thursday

Hey gang what's cooking? Florida another loss? Oh brother can't win games their supposed to win.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
L. Hernandez against A. Harang
I like Harang at home against Nationals.

San Diego Padres -130(W)

MLB Wednesday

8th inning did in that UNDER yesterday and take a loss.

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
The Marlins are reeling like fish out of water. 6 losers in a row and they are losing one run games.

This one the Braves send Derek Lowe, Braves winning 8-5 when Derek is on the hill, second best money pitcher in rotation. He is 5-1 against NL East and has thrown 5 quality out of 7 road games. But he's road game has gone 3-4 and though he has kept the Braves in game his last win was May 12th.

Ricky Nolasco going for the Marlins is having tough luck at home. He's pitched quality games, but the Marlins are not supporting him with 2-5 home record. He is 1-3 against NL East and 3-4 as a favorite.

Backing Florida at home coming off 1-0 shut out loss with Marlins out hitting the Braves. The Braves have over taken Florida in tight NL East, but I wouldn't say Atlanta is hot or Florida is down and out. Braves are having hard time scoring runs and the Marlins will be motivated after a shut out. Ricky will be OK he just needs his team to cash in few runners.

Florida Marlins -113(L)

MLB Tuesday

Reds were strong winners yesterday.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Daniel Hudson going for the D-Backs looking to get back in form. Kevin Correia got his 8th win and will try to keep his streak going. Both of these pitchers are going about their business with quality outing and though the Total is seemingly low at 7.5 this game looks Under to me. It's most likely not a lights out game with this number getting tested, but I think when the dust settles the score will fall short.

ARZ/PIT UNDER 7.5(L)

MLB Monday

Coming off a win on the Under at S.F. Looking for more.

cubs at Reds
Garza on the hill for Chicago and Leak for the Reds. Cinci looking to bounce back and they are in a strong spot to do just that. They are favored, but at a fair price.

REDS -131(W)

MLB Sunday

Colorado at SF Giants
Jason Hammel taking the ball for the Rox will look to redeem himself after a sub par outing, but facing the G-men at home with Ryan Vogelsong on the hill will be a tough order. Vogelsong has 4 quality starts out of 7 and may not look formidable, but he has pitched all quality at home with 0.44 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Even when he doesn't have the best stuff the Giants bring their game. The stand out number here is 7-24-1 O/U and this match up fits the profile.

COL/SFG UNDER 7(W)

MLB Saturday

O.K. back to taking down winner with Atlanta taking care of business.

Looking at Saturday I'm going with the game in Cinci. Yes sir, Dodgers and the Red Machine. Reds continue their quest to the top and they are impressive with Cueto on the mound. Cueto pitching 2.13 ERA at home with 1.02 WHIP, 4 out 5 game quality start. Not only that, but Reds bull pen in recent games have been lights out with 0.79 ERA in last 7 games with 1.06 WHIP in last 7 games. 60% winners at home and highly productive with 18-9-3 O/U so how is Dodgers going to counter? Klayton Kershaw 6-3 on the hill for the Dodgers and he is the top money pitcher for L.A. Despite this spot is a down turn situation coming after a complete home game shut out against Florida and there are plenty of angles against L.A. I keep recalling the fact Dodgers bring their best game against the Reds. But rather than choosing sides Kershaw 16-10-1 O/U away in a spot to regress and the Dodgers to break out after a shut out. Reds are natural Over team at Great American Ballpark so we go against good pitching and that spells OVER.

LAD/CIN OVER 7.5(W)

MLB Friday

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Tonight's game featuring veteran Derek Lowe for the Braves going against Jon Niese for the home Mets. New York salvaged the Pittsburgh series with a big rally to come from behind. Something you don't see much with the Mets. The doubters will be closely watching to see if Mets 12-8 in last 20 home games will hold water against the Braves. This maybe a good spot with Lowe coming off string of 2 bad appearance and Niese coming off a excellent game. Though there is a air of "feel good" about the Mets I can see Lowe making his adjustments tonight. Lowe has been quality and better away although he get's less run support. Lowe also a work horse eating better than 6 innings per game. Braves to increase their divisional lead.

ATLANTA BRAVES -103(W)

MLB Thursday

Tuesday loss with AZ was a unexpected set back, but than again I expect to win every game. Wednesday was a day to reflect back and sort through the angles. The plays come in different forms and the key is to recognize the profile that fits. Easier said than done.

Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
Interesting match up between the bottom dwellers in their respective division, but lately both teams are finding wining ways. Two right handers going on the mound, Bud Norris for the Stros and Tim Stauffer for the Pads. Bud coming off a bad beat and looking for a long due win. Tim is coming off his first win of the season and looking to keep his form. Considering the likely hood of one of these pitcher getting another ND and both teams having offensive up swing. Look for this on to go Over at Petco.
OVER 6.5(W)

MLB Tuesday

Returned from the wilderness weekend and have returned with fish to show my effort. Back to the daily grind, for some, but I really don't see it that way. Just what I do and enjoy it too.

Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
If you sample some recent games in MLB you know the D-Backs are hot. You'll also note today's pitching calls for good arms. Cutting to the chase home team is a bit too much for the road worn Fish. Fish in the desert stinks to me.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -125(L)

MLB Friday

Time to put on your straps and make a move.
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
How do you guys like the White Sox 6 men rotation? Judging from the outcome Pitchers are in cruise control they just need some run support. Mark Buehrle is pitching good enough and Jays are on the skid. However the run support is still the issue and Toronto going with Kyle Drabek has been quality. Blue Jays don't seem to have run support issue as the best hitting team in AL. I'm going with Toronto to break the skid.

Toronto Blue Jays -125(W)

MLB Thursday

Florida Marlins at S.F. Giants
This game will feature Anibal Sanchez for the Marlins and Ryan Vogelsong two pitchers in great form. Both pitchers are not allowing base runners and games have been going UNDER.

UNDER 7(W)

MLB Wednesday

Got the win yesterday and we are watching the line movement on Tampa at Detroit.
Detroit Tigers looking to sweep the falling Rays in this afternoon match up. You guys might already know I like going against the sweep and look for a dog situation. If this game fit that profile I would of taken the early line for Rays max value. But this time I like Brad Penny and the Tigers. Andy Sonnanstine pitching in place of injured pitcher Jeff Niemann and he has yet to show quality outing. Normally a bit tougher on the road, but slumping Tampa bats will be no help. Penny has been quality at home and I expect him to bounce back.

Detroit Tigers -128(Postponed)

Added second game.
NYM at CHC
Mets pitcher Dillion Gee coming along nicely and Mets maybe ready to redeem themselves. Cubs will send Casey Coleman who has been working with too many base runners and woeful at home. However Mets just seem to find a way to lose.

CUBS 100(L)

MLB Tuesday

Bad take on good pitcher duel. I must say Progressive Field is the toughest home park.

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
In this game Braves will feature Jair Jurrjens, top Braves money pitcher 7 out of 7 quality starts and Braves are 5-2. Going against Atlanta is Charlie Morton, also pitching well 6 out of 8 quality coming off a complete game shut out of Cincinnati Reds. As we sample the recent performance Braves production have come down while Bucks have improved. I feel that trend will be off set by today's pitchers.

Atlanta/Pittsburgh Under 7.5 -115(W)

MLB Monday

Unfortunate loss yesterday with Colorado getting swept in Milwaukee. Pitching did return in that game which ended in 1-3 score Jimenez went all the way and Wolf, although not as sharp, got the timely hit to back up his 7 inning performance.

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
Sox, since sweeping the Yankees at NY, have been rolling. They just finished their home stand sweeping Detroit and taking 2 out of 3 from Cubs in Interleague. Now they're in Cleveland where Clay Buchholtz gets the call. Clay winning 3 out of last 4starts and Sox winning all 4. His last start against Detroit was a pitchers duel he gave up nothing in 7 innings struck out 7 walked 1 Boston coming out ahead 1-0, but Clay threw whopping 127 pitches. Red Sox are will take their hot streak to Progressive Field where Indians are 18-4 and Justin Masterson has pitched 8 out of 9 quality games. He too is coming off a pitchers duel at Chicago White Sox where he ended on the losing side of 0-1 and he too has thrown tons of pitches. I'm going Over in this seemingly Under 8.5 situation. I feel the Pitchers will regress with hot bats on both sides. Buchholtz is 1-3 O/U away, but his quality number drops, his ground out number drops and there's a rise in WHIP. Masterson at home is 4-1 O/U and though 80% quality gives up a bit more. Going Over at highly rated hitters park where production is 3rd highest in American League.

Boston/Cleveland Over 8.5(L)

MLB Sunday

Missed you guys on Saturday. Hope everyone held their own.

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers.
Brewers are sure tough at home they've accumulated 15 wins and only 6 losses. Colorado is hanging just above .500 on the road and they have already dropped 2 games in Milwaukee. Ubaldo Jimenez still looking for his first win and Rox are 1-6 when he takes the ball. Randy Wolf is on two game slide and the Brew crew has dropped the last 3 of his outings. I think it's a bounce back spot for both pitcherws, but I don't think Milwaukee will complete the sweep. Both games ended with 1 run differential and this one goes to the Rox.

Colorado Rockies -122(L)

MLB Friday

Phillies got cancelled with Joe Blanton getting scratched, but we get the late game in late inning.
Interleague play. Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Brad Penny pitching for the Tigers looking good lately. He's beat Kansas City, Toronto and the Yankees all in May, pitching just under 22 innings he's given up 3 runs total. It's been awhile going head to head with the Pirates, but Penny facing the Bucks in over a decade is 6-1. Pirate's pitcher Jeff Karsten has been struggling in May with 1 loss and 2 ND's. He's pitched under 15 innings, 18 hits, 6 ER and gave up 4 HR's. It doesn't look good for the Pirates, but Penny despite his recent success and 5 quality starts out of 9, 4 of the quality start are at home and of the 4 starts he's had away he's only has 1 quality start with 3 losses. While Karsten has only logged 2 quality start out of 6 both were at home and Jeff has 3 home starts. The Tigers to disappoint after the tough battle with Boston

Pittsburgh Pirates +121(W)

MLB Thursday

The game last night was ours to win. We couldn't lose after 6th inning 3-3 tie, but just not enough to push it through. Take the push and we move on.

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
A very good game, good match, Rox Jhoulys Chacin their top young gun with good mix, induces grounders and uses his slider for the out pitch. Coming off a ND, team loss, to SD at home. Jhoulys is playing well, 4-2 with 1.17 WHIP, team record 5-3. He'll be facing Joe Blanton who's record may not look as good as Chacin's, but Joe's doing heavy road work and small sampling of his home starts does not do him justice. Velocity dropping? His elbow? These issues will be answered. Let's consider Phillies are 11-2 against Rox at home and this domination runs deep into past seasons, but better than 80% is huge. Rox may have been surging and Phillies falling let's see if the tides change in this opportune timely game.

Philadelphia Phillies +113 *Joe Blanton scratched Bet Canceled

Adding a second game in NL at Petco Park.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Padres hosting the Brewers and Aaron Harang will take the ball on the home mound. Opposing will be Chris Narveson. Brew crew has heated up taking 7 out of last 10 and they are scoring runs. Pads have a terrible home record and have dropped head to head match up 3-1. But what we have here is a top Padres money pitcher going against the worst money pitcher for Brewers. San Diego is also killing left handed pitchers.

San Diego Padres +105(W)

MLB Wednesday

We win last night's battle in South side of Chicago. Today we take our game to the Coliseum in Oakland. Beautiful day partly cloudy, but looking clear now at 64F and today is Wednesday special at Oakland. $2 tickets are available in Plaza Level, Plaza Outfield and Plaza Reserved sections, while supplies last. Purchase tickets now for this popular promotion. $2 Wednesdays are presented by BART.
How about that for a treat? Go catch this game if your in the area and we will cap this game. Minnesota Twins are hurting this year they stop the 9 game losing streak at Seattle, but this team has long ways to prove themselves. Carl Pavano taking the ball coming off 0-2 ND, Twins loss and Twins are win less on Pavano's road starts. Oakland playing much better will send Brandon McCarthy who is searching for his second win. The last win was back in April 10 at Minnesota. I see this game with high potential to go Over 7. Both pitchers are in a spot to regress and despite Minnesota's O/U 9-16 record the Over number has been creeping in for the last 10 games. Oakland, evident by yesterday's 14 run eruption, has been scoring in recent games. Both teams are trending Over and that's the play.

MIN/OAK OVER 7 -115(Push)

MLB Tuesday

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
So what do you guys think about the South siders? 17-25 is not a good record. 5-12 at home means they play twice is bad at home! Texas Rangers are a good home team not away although they did improve to 7-10 with last night's win at Chicago that's still under par. The pitching match up is Matt Harrison for Texas who was slotted to win in Arlington had that game not postponed. He's been having shaky start in last 4 games where he has trouble establishing himself early. Danks despite his no win record and his last disaster game in L.A. has pitched well for most part. White Sox also coming off a shut out at home is another angle to consider. Concensus taking Texas yet Chicago has moved from -123 on the over night to -143 and it is a strong spot for Chicago.

Chicago White Sox -139(W)

MLB Monday

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Padres are playing their 7th out of 8th road game. Zona is just home from their 9 game road trip where they recorded 3-6. These two team matched up in Zona's first stop at Petco Park, May 6, 7 and 8, Snakes losing that series going on to lose more series. In the meantime Pads bats have heated up and here we are with a good road pitcher in Clayton Richard. Armando Galarraga is a bit off right now and we will take a shot with rising San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres +111(W)

MLB Saturday

Damn that loser game last night was exactly the kind of game that eats me up. Reds scoring 2 runs in 6th & 7th than knotting it up at 9th and taking it at 10th was a classic moose job. I know you guys had to vent on that demise, perfectly natural, but the key is never play angry. Take a little breather, relax, have a smoke or whatever you do. We'll get into the matinee for Saturday.

You know Houston has been dismal so far. Coming off a loss last night they are 3-7 in last 10, 8-12 at home, last in NL Central and there are many faults to list. But similar to the game we capped last night and lost, Houston Astros had last night's game in cruise control only to lose it in late inning. The difference between our game and Astro's loss was Houston blew it on their home field. Is that meaningless? I think Astros make a stand today and crush the visiting NY Mets.

HOUSTON ASTROS +100(W)

MLB Friday

St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
In the past season I would of looked at these pitchers just the opposite of where they stand now. Lohse and the Cards despite last two losses is money. Arroyo's not pitching bad, but not winning at home plus he's giving up the long ball at home.
I'm taking the good road team.

St Louis Cardinals -101(L)

MLB Thursday

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves.
Derek Lowe taking the ball will face visiting Jordan Zimmermann and the Nationals.
Nationals slated as highly improved team in the spring is just around .500 and are a money making team. Atlanta above .500 slight money loser, but RL winner. I looked at this game and asked why is the total so low?

NATS/BRAVES O7.5(W)

MLB Wednesday

We roll another winner with Cardinals going away. The wind is to our back getting closer to the hot summer days.

I'm going with the steel city game, Dodgers and Pirates. Pretty good pitching with Hiroki Kuroda for visiting Dodgers and Paul Maholm for the home Pirates. Dodgers won big yesterday, 10-3 big, but let's face it they are not playing well, 3-6 in May, where as the Bucks are winning. But you may feel Bucks recent series wins came against weak opponents, Padres and Astros, and Dodgers have historically owned the Pirates. All true, but today's pitching angle show declining Kuroda against Maholm getting stronger. Let's go with the home team.

Pittsburgh Pirates -103(L)

MLB Tuesday

St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Chris Carpenter against Carlos Zambrano. In declining season for Carp is a fast track season for Z, but following a impressive outing of 8 innings at Los Angeles Zambrano returns to Wrigley. I think Carlos will regress against the Cards right hand hitting line up. Chris Carpenter will give enough to keep St Louis to make this interesting.

St Louis Cardinals -118(W)

MLB Monday

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Billingsley and Karstens playing in steel city. Simply put the nature of this game is to go UNDER not because of the pitching match up, but due to the fact these teams are not performing with runners on bases. The game will not be a easy Under with the given low number, but most likely fall short.

Los Angeles Dodgers / Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7.5 -110(W)

MLB Friday

Cleveland Indians at L.A. Angels.
Angels finally broke through Boston in a blow out and now they return to the West Coast. Indians took care of business in Oakland and they are ahead of schedule. Cleveland are playing hot and bring their money pitcher. Angels will be tired, but home pitching at Anahiem will keep it tight.

Cleveland Indians/Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8.5 -110(W)

MLB Thursday

SF Giants at NY Mets
Mets have shown signs of life. Michael Pelfrey will take the mound. Mets starters have lasted 6 innings in first two games and money has steadily pushed the Mets line from the original Under dog spot. Jonathan Sanchez coming off ND Giants win at DC That was a game he threw 103 pitches in 5 innings walking 6, but only giving up 2 hits 1 run. That makes 2 ND starts in a row for Jonathan. It seems he's not going deep. It's a tough sell for a sweep today and Sanchez looking shaky I have to agree with the money flow.

NY Mets -105(W)

Late game match up Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners.
Seattle. In recent games Seattle is surging and playing on home field, but I don't like Vargas. Jason has 3 quality outings out of 6 and has not won at home. Matter of fact team's got 4 losses. On the other hand Lewis feeds on Mariners and we roll with Texas.

Texas Rangers -110(L)

MLB Wednesday

Got a Push yesterday and look for another low scoring AL game in Minnesota at Chicago W@hite Sox. Dank and Sox look to get one back after a Lariano No-No and Twin have yet to show signs of offense. Blackburn looking to get back on track and I think this spot calls for a much stronger Blackburn. So let's hit the Under one more time.

Minnesota/Chicago UNDER 8.5(W)

MLB Tuesday

Yesterday was a square play winner with most sharps on the Tigers, but it happens. Look what happened 2011 stud pitcher Jered Weaver and the Halos getting wacked at Fenway. The difference between taking the Angels and taking the Yankees was simply the match up record and of course the shady line.

Tuesday we're looking at Texas Ranger at Seattle Mariners. Alexi Ogando coming off a quality game against Toronto and he has been consistently good. The only trouble game was at Yankee Stadium when he was fighting a blister. He 2 hit the Mariners in early April for 6 innings giving no runs. Opposing will be Erik Bedard coming off his best start this season. Mariners home from great road trip will look to keep this a low scoring game at home.

TEX/SEA UNDER 7(Push)

MLB Monday

It was a close one yesterday, but a bad day for the books that got middled with sharp players who took 7.5 Under and 6.5 Over Pushing 7.

I'll take it as a good omen. The game is Yankees at Detroit Tigers and the pitching match up goes to the Tigers by default just because everyone is looking for B. Colon to blow up and Justin Verlander to pick it up a notch. I say show me. Detroit is playing losing ball games and hot Yankees team is anticipated to lose? Going with the road dog.

NY Yankees +125(w)

MLB Sunday

I hate having losers. Had one yesterday's extra inning game. Add insult to injury on home favs. It happens so you get back up, don't get rattled and focus on the game.
Giants at Nationals is the game with Matt Cain going against Jordan Zimmerman. Nats giving the World Champ run for their money. Shut down Licecum on Friday, 1 run loss on Saturday and still under estimated going into Sunday's game with Zimmerman who threw two clunkers in a row. Chances are Jordan will bounce back. Big Matt Cain is coming off a game in Pittsburgh which Matt was slated to lose before the Buck's pen gave it up. The game before that Matt was pounded in Colorado, but his game is improving and has feasted steadily on Nats. The game has low scoring tone which was also deliberate with 6.5 O posted by the earliest LV lines followed by 7.5 U offshore and quickly evened at 7, but late movement has pushed this number to 6.5 giving that edge by the hook 0.5 runs. If you get a good price jump on it this is good as getting that early opening line at a discount!

San Francisco / Washington OVER 6.5 -110(W)

MLB Saturday

We rolled with Florida on Friday game and Saturday I going to take the game in the desert. You know the Cubbies are visiting Chase Field in Phoenix. This is game 3 of the series Matt Garza following Zambrano\s win 4-2 Cubs. This series knotted 1-1 and Chicago stopped it's slide at 4. Now Matt Garza is not that bad of a pitcher. He gives you 6 innings and does his job, but the problem is his moneyline game loser the worst in Chicago rotation. On the home mound is Ian Kennedy who happens to be the top moneyline pitcher for Arizona. Ian's coming off a game of his life shutting down the Phillies in complete game and most likely regress here, but considering he's gone 14 innings in 2 games giving up only 1 run I'll ride that home momentum at a reasonable price.

ARIZONA -120(W)

MLB Friday

TGIF everyone! Good Thursday with Boston's timely hit to take the -1.5 RL let's move on to Friday at the Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati Reds welcome Florida Marlins and veteran Javier Vasquez. The last time Cincy hosted the Fish was August of last year, remember the Reds were smoking hot around that time, Reds swept the Marlins holding the lead throughout the series. This time around it's Vasquez against Travis Wood and while Wood has much better K:BB ratio than Vasquez, Wood is a moneyline losing pitcher. Maybe Javier doesn't fair much better as he's just above water getting good run support, but maybe the starters are awash. The Reds in last 10 games are hitting .195 against righties and Marlins are .290 against lefties. So we roll the dice with the hot team at a good value. The Marlins finished their home stand 7-2, almost sweeping the 4 game series against the Dodgers.
The Reds won the recent Milwaukee series, but it took extra innings to do it and they've lost the St Louis series before that, Arizona series before that and Pittsburg before that. Reds are alternating hot cold days and if the game is on the line in late innings Florida bull pen has been shutting them down.

Florida Marlins +139(W)

MLB Thursday

Sorry peeps no play Wednesday, but we had a good size dog on Tuesday to keep the flow going into the weekend. It's still early season so we will cherry pick these games.

Baltimore O's takes two straight win against the Red Sox. How did that work out? It crushed the Red Sox backers as road favorite. O's are 4-4 in their latest home stand, but this .500 record includes split with the Twins, Boston series win and lost to the rain shortened Yankees series in the middle. This team has the making of good dog team and Red Sox is just the opposite. It's a bad team to back especially with this early stage record. I'm sure the daily player who lost the two games with Boston might be shy here. It looks like another Boston situation with Lester on the mound, he's never lost to the O's, and Bergensen for the O's who been serving up long balls with regularity. So do we fade the obvious and take the O's ?
Well, I don't think so. After all that I've said I think the Red Sox make a stand with their Ace on the mound and I like the Lefty righty match up. Sometimes the obvious is play against the grain.

RED SOX RL -1.5 at -108(W)

MLB Tuesday

Toronto at Texas
Maybe it's me, but Toronto at this price against Texas who the Jays play well. Also Texas losses comes in pairs.

Toronto+165(W)

MLB Monday

Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Pitchers are Bronson Arroyo and Chris Narveson. Both pitchers are doing well despite the money pushing Over. Brew crew is playing well right now compared to the Reds and hold the home field advantage, but I look for today's line up to turn it around from the left side.
Reds +120(W)

MLB Sunday

Atlanta Braves at SF Giants
Brandon Beachy following two good Atlanta pitching will try to continue the quality start. Brandon is coming off a excellent game at Los Angeles shutting down the Dodgers for 6 innings which gives him 2-0 perfect road game, 12 innings with 0.75 WHIP. The home team will send Jonathan Sanchez to stop the bleeding who is always tough at home. Giants are giving Jonathan ample run support winning his last 3 starts. I feel this Righty Lefty match up will favor the Giants even with the improving Atlanta Bats. Go with the home team.

S.F. Giants -130(L)

MLB Thursday

Cleveland at Kansas City

Royals +106(W)

MLB Monday

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Tim Hudson goes for the Braves defying father time as the most successful of 2000 to 2004 Oakland A's Big Three, the other two are Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, people keep saying his days are numbered, but he's still rolling. Dodgers will go with Ted Lilly who has been around just as long and put his best game 2006 to 2008. Both of these guys will reach for their battle tested game plans, stay poised on the mound, but somehow I fail to see this game going below 6.5 runs. Braves Dodgers game have gone Over 72% at Chavez Ravine. I'll take those numbers.

ATL/LAD OVER 6.5(L)

MLB Saturday

LAA at CWS
This is a game between a team hot on the road against a hot home team. The pitching match up Tyler Chatwood for the Angels and Gavin Floyd for the White Sox pits two pitchers coming off games reflective of today's line. Tyler getting the loss giving up 4 runs, 2 long balls, throwing 90 pitches and lasting 5 innings.Gavin beat Tampa going 8 innings of no run ball game striking out 8 in eye opening performance. But considering the larger sampling of Gavin's performance I'm not convinced on his masterful game to continue. His best year was 2008 and it's been falling since. On the other side young Tyler is a default starter, but also a top prospect with fastball up to 97 and control who can keep the Angels in striking distance. Take the fat number on Halos and look for Gavin's game to decline.

Los Angeles Angels +152(W)

MLB Thursday

LAA at TBR
Dan Haren for the slight dog visiting Halos and young gun Jeremy Hellickson will show his stuff at home. I think this is going to be an pitchers duel. It's a dome game and both teams have the make up of being early Under teams. The line has opened a AL low 7.5 despite the number money has also gone Under. I would time the entry, but the real prize is on the Angels as Rays are down graded product this season. Go against the price move on Moneyline and take the value on L.A.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS +107(W)

MLB Monday

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Both pitchers on the mound are comers and I don't feel the home advantage is all that big. It shows on the line too. Take the Braves as the short dog.

Braves +102(W)

MLB Sunday

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Watched quite a bit of Spring Baseball, but good thing I didn't lay money on them cuz I was tagging the wrong teams. That's spring where late inning are like playing the blind. Moving on, it Baseball season in full swing. Taking a play from one of the very old school playbook which is to back the ace of past several season who commands favorable money line against a comer of a pitcher at home. You may think decline is in the card for Tim Hudson who is pitching agelessly, even his spring appearance was flawless, with his Braves looking very much like the Braves of yester years. I do not doubt Atlanta's contention this year. Nats at home is very under estimated. Maybe enough for Washington to find the holes, but Hudson in early going looking very much in form is enough to back the re surging Atlanta Braves

ATLANTA BRAVES -130(W)

Grapefruit League 2011

I took the Pirates last night on the Over-night line at -106. Bucks are at home hosting Baltimore O's. Somehow I mistook the split squad dates and thought O's had a day night game going on, but that's not the case. O's are about 15 minutes away and they'll come ready to play. Maholm and the rest of Pirates pitchers are lined up and maybe the match up does go to the home team, but the late line move advantage goes to Baltimore.

Baltimore O's at +102(W)

MLB Cactus League Saturday

Cactus League
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
3:05 ET in Glendale, AZ.

Reds line up likely to have most of the regulars. Bronson Arroyo will start along with Logan Ondrusek, Jordan Smith, Jose Arredondo, Scott Carroll and Jeremy Horst on slate. Dodgers coming off a Friday night game at Camelback Ranch 5-3 loss to SF Giants. It was a regular season like match up Garland hitting Giant, Cody Ross, and Zito payback to Dodger, Marcus Thames. Emotion filled game was lost by the relief corp of Matt Geuerrier and Ron Mahay. Now they turn around from night to day game. Dodgers will continue to look at pitchers including non-roster invitees Lance Cormier, Jon Hube, Roman Colon, Oscar Villareal and Wilkin De La Rosa. Reds continue to show strength in their pitching and good chance to get to the relief corp again.

REDS +107(L)

MLB 2011 Spring is in the air

Although many are still battling the cold season MLB Preseason games are under way and I'm already couple of games behind. Not that anyone should rush to the wager window, but observe what's happening around you. Keep in mind, if you've stumbled into my writing, I'm not trying to sell you anything, but I do want some attention for the work being put in and I do appreciate inputs and comments. I don't do front page stuff I leave it to the main stream media. I like stuff that goes unnoticed, unmentioned and under the radar. It's not always so, but that's my personal taste for going about choosing games. I don't explain much of the basics because it's common knowledge, maybe some are not so commonly known, but if it is with my peers I consider it common knowledge. Baseball wagering is the name of this game and I'll be back with my take.

Post Season 2010

SF Giants at Atlanta Braves
Braves will send Lowe to the mound and try to knot this thing. At Turner the Braves have the best home record and winning just about 61.5% as favorites. Lowe is a hot pitcher right now with no loss in September and his last game although a loss was a 0-1 pitchers battle in SF. Giants with the series lead winning a gimme last night will go with Bumgarner. In a move to preserve SF pitching and still have the home field advantage will Braves tie this series? I just don't see them being able to close making today's Giants a good value bet.

GIANTS +135

MLB Wednesday

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals

Handicappers how you guys making out? Back to make a selection after a bit of hiatus.
When you look at San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals what comes to your mind? More so than Padres being one of the best road team which is a pretty good first thought,but not enough to solely take the risk because Nats are not too shabby at home. Before you dig into the pitchers and match ups take this simple thought, these are two top UNDER teams in baseball, Padres road under is best in baseball and Nats Under after three consecutive Over's is golden.

UNDER 8 +105 *at Pinnacle for 1 unit

MLB Tuesday

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

L.A. dropped 3 in a row, at home, to their cross town rivals and they are looking for some relief. Relief in Great American Ballpark is not a bad thought. Dodgers have been kicking Reds around for some time and last time these two pitchers met back in April 6-14 Dodgers blow out at Great American Ballpark. Harang has tough time with L.A. and Hiroki Kuroda is one of the Dodgers top money pitcher with Dodgers taking 8-4. All that and Dodgers are only -115, what do you say? A good bounce back spot after a three game loss by L.A a team with 36-27 record and with a day off. Both are bad situation with negative stats for L.A. and though L.A. does hold edge over past record Reds are very similar this season at 36-28 record, 22-15 at home, with excellent 0.8 win margin. I also think Dodgers are a risky proposition where single run games have turned against them over the course of last 10 games.

CINCINNATI REDS +105

MLB Saturday

Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins
First game of this series was a pitching duel with both starters going 8 strong innings. Tonight the match up will feature good pitching again with Derek Lowe for the visiting Braves, 8-5 with team record the same. He's been getting good run support and has been money. You also need to understand the Braves road record of 16-21 is not reflective of Atlanta's current state. Eliminating their early slump Braves are playing even away, splitting Arizona and L.A. series on the road before that sweeping the Phillies, Pittsburgh at home before that winning on the road and their winning ways started before that. Yes, Atlanta Braves are good team to back right now. Cutting to the chase, I like the Twins and Nick Blackburn. They are perfect at home. Yeah, Nick threw 2 forgettable starts out West, but back to the friendly fields in Twin city I expect different.

MINNESOTA TWINS -116 for 1 unit (L)

Late inning loser

MLB Friday

New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles.

The interleague games are upon us again. Not really big on uncharted matches, or minimal history at best type games, but playing hot so let's keep it rolling. NY Mets are playing well lately, 7-3 last 10, best in the East as a matter of fact. They will make the short trip to Baltimore and give 17-43 Orioles a shot. O's are 22 games behind Tampa, 17 games behind 4th place Toronto and gone 2-8 in last 10.
R.A. Dickey getting movement on his knuckler and all systems look set for New York. However O's showed some fight against the Yankees and despite their losing record last 5 games has signs of rising performance leading to last nights win. Jermey Guthrie has pitched well and his team wasting his last outing must weigh in. Baltimore 11-18 at home is pretty bad but, Mets are worse 8-18 away, regardless how short road trip. Backing Baltimore at Camden. Dickey is a familiar pitcher in AL and a known 5th option at that.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES -113 for 1 unit(L)

Oh crap! Moving on.

MLB Wednesday

SF Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Love both of these teams, not as a fan, money line seem to feel the same. Giants will go with Jonathan Sanchez, he has been money on the road 3 quality starts out of 5 with hair above 1.00 WHIP. On the home front, Aaron Harang who is eating innings as usual, but bottom of ranks in rotation. He comes off a ND in Washington with Reds taking the loss in a game where he failed to reach 6 innings for the first time in over a month. Although Reds are bleeding with their veteran on the hill, handicappers know it and June suites better for Giants than Reds, I rather take the game after a shut out situation for Reds at home. Also a bounce back spot for Harang. Giants after 3 or more wins in a row has dismal win percentage and they are on the road.

CINCINNATI REDS -114 for 1 unit(W)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals

All this movement here has caught my attention. I understand the Bucks suck on the road, what are they 9-20 away?, and they will test the water with Brad Lincoln the triple A call-up, but lets look at what we know at this level. Nats going with Lannan. He is among the money makers of the rotation and even with sub .500 record, 2-3, his team has logged 6-5 with 3-1 record at home. The Bucks woeful road record is coupled with 2-7 record against NL East. OK this is bad why in the world would you take the Pirates? Did you know despite their 23-35 record they are Black in money? Also these two teams match up close with Bucks slight edge and the money line is moving away. Lannan has not been quality at home, he's logged only one, and 4.91 ERA with 1.68 WHIP. Give me the Pirates for FIRST 5 INNINGS.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES *First 5 Innings +129 for 1 unit(PUSH)

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics

Joe Sanders will take the ball and he is rolling right now, 3-1 in last 5 lowered his ERA to 3.24, going for more. He's also 10-4 career against the A's. Top it off Dallas Braden for the A;s have not won since throwing a perfect game on May 9th. But give him credit at home with 6 quality starts out of 7, 2.61 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. What this match up holds for Dallas and the A's are the O/U 1-6 and these two teams match up UNDER at better than 60% in Oakland. So I look for good pitching and maybe for this line to move up 0.5 runs, but I'll go ahead with the current 8.

UNDER 8 at +111 for 1 unit(PUSH)

How often do you see 2 pushes out of 3. Six published winners in a row. Like that?

How do you like me now?

How do you like the new layout? I thought it was kind of cool. Baseball selections have been doing well. Started out in the hole, but turned things around and we are back in BLACK.

You know I don't write much besides game angles and I don't think I'm much of a writer. It's something I do to break from daily responsibilities it keeps your soul alive. If your passion dies than so too will your soul and you'll become nothing more than a dead soul inching along the freeway in a iron casket. There are two reasons for me to do this. Because I like it and it makes money. Money part is important too not because it's money, but because it's a gauge of how your doing. It's like points and for me I rather have higher points than wins. Game wins go hand in hand with money won, but the degree of wins or amount of money wins are different so 21-15 winner picking favorites may not differ much from 18-18 winner taking dogs. I also like the fact this game does not discriminate and good players will rise like cream. I've seen a lot of guys come and go, but the good ones, the one's who are truly skilled, are still standing knocking down games year after year.
If you do it long enough you should know and remember situations that have come before meaning your skill to predict the outcome have to become sharp or you will not survive in this game. The nature of zero sum game is winner takes it all. Mistake in reading the game will cost you. Most likely the risky proposition is not for the majority or maybe your just a fan rooting for your team with $50 riding to make it exciting. If this is you then your not in my world. Published plays are $1000 per unit a.k.a. Dime plays. I post them as I see them. Do you have the skills? I'd like to know. Leave me a comment or PM directly.

MLB Sunday

This is my town. I'm in L.A., but my forecast calls on "Show Me" State game.

I know everyone here is tuned in on NBA Finals from Staples Center. It's nothing personal it's business.

Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals

What's cooking? Sunday BBQ's in the plan and nothin goes better then ribs, chicken, hot links with that MLB game.

Did I notice a lefty lefty match up in St Louis? Yes I did, Jamie Garcia and Manny Parra going at it. You know the Cards are the contenders and Brewers are the under achievers. Manny's pitching a fill in role and Jamie is pitching some impressive games. Not much to think about pulling the trigger on St Louis? Right off the bat Jamie, as good as he maybe, is a 50-50 proposition. Now ask yourself if that's a risk worth taking? OK, you say it doesn't matter because Brewers aren't going to win. Well bad as it looks for the Brewers I see it as not as good for the Cards. And like I said in the beginning it's a lefty lefty match up that trends toward Milwaukee.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS +200 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Friday

Cincinatti Reds at Washington Nationals.
Reds are playing well at 31-23 so far and backers are making money. They have cooled a bit dropping the St Louis series, but very strong home stand before that going 5-2. Today Reds call on Aaron Harang (4-5 & 5.48 ERA) coming off a 7 inning 1 run schooling of Astros. Harang coming into mid season form maybe trouble for 26-29 Nationals. Livan Hernandez has not won since early May and Reds bats are pretty hot over their last 10 games. However Money line telling a different story with opening favoring the home team. Hernandez despite cooling in May still 4 quality starts out of 5 with 1.51 ERA & 0.98 WHIP at home. Nationals won't roll over tonight.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS -108 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Wednesday

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
KC is a tough sell again at 18-28, but then it's anticipated to happen. What caught my eyes is RL in BLACK. True to their stats Tuesday's Texas game ended 8-7 KC one run loss. Take a Que here fellas the pitching match up works in Royals favor at home.

Take the Run Line, but Money line is worth the risk. ML & RL(W)

MLB Tuesday

Oakland A's at Baltimore O's
Are you fading Baltimore automatically? It's working out and you plan to ride on, well good for you! Athletics are in town after sweeping the Giants in inter league series and the A's put on a pitching clink allowing 1 run in 27 innings with 3 starters eating 20 of those innings. Meanwhile O's went to DC and dropped 2 out of 3 Baltimore did make it interesting with 2 losses coming at 1 run difference, but still losses on the moneyline. So if your on the Baltimore "F" train you must be feeling alright after all it's house money at this point. What might be puzzling at this late hour is why is moneylne price come out nearly even on Baltimore? Even favoring them at one point before returning? If you asked yourself this question you may realize the nature of Oakland exceeding 3 wins in a row is a low percentage play. On the road makes it tougher. Also today's starter for the A's, Dallas Braden who has shown Major league skills with 7 quality starts out of 9, has been bit erratic on the road. Orioles will go with Jeremy Guthrie. He too has been pitching well with 7 quality starts out of 9, but difference is Guthrie showing better stability on all outing and his home starts brings outstanding 0.92 WHIP. His record is deceiving 2-4 and team record should be better than 2-7. Good spot for Jeremy and the O's to win one in Camden.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES +104 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Friday

Houston at San Francisco

Recent results will show Astros finishing 4 game sweep of St Louis. Suddenly looking formidable where as Giants losing 3 in a row, 4 losses in last 5 with 4 of those in 1 run games, seem over priced as home favorite. Maybe so, but I do have problem with Felipe Paulino, 0-5 out of 6 starts and 1 quality start, not cutting it. You say Todd Wellemyer is about the same? He held his own against the Phillies at home and home is where G-Men are 10-8, against righty 12-8, as favorite 13-8 and play the NL Central very well 7-2. SFG at home.

GIANTS -142 for 1 unit(W)

Tuesday MLB

Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Looking at two early division lagers Mariners are the obviously in better position at 6 games behind the AL West leader Texas. Most would agree Seattle will have better product on field not even getting into pitching. Baltimore is clawing from the bottom depths of AL East which arguably is considered the toughest in Baseball, but 9-23 and 12.5 behind Tampa is truly looking disastrous. Now take the pitching match up with Cliff Lee getting the ball for Seattle.
He's got two starts so far already threw 7innings then 8innings looking very much like the work horse he is. O's counter with David Hernandez, the guy who was knocked out by the Yanks in last outing, he is 0-4. There's not too much to dig here? I do happen to have a wrench with O birds showing life, which might be short lived, but Mariners still on down trend playing on the road. Isn't that like a double negative. Watching this line a bit see what takes shape. (+137 as of this writing)

Little after lunch on game day and I read the movement correctly. Public has been pushing Seattle all day. Baltimore has improved nicely for those who waited. Playing the weak team on road fade angle.

BALTIMORE +152 for 1 unit(L)

I tell you this continue to fade Mariners for remainder of series.

Monday MLB

Washington Nationals at New York Mets.

John Main taking the home mound. History show he has pitched some of his best games against the Nats, but this season so far the fastballs are very hittable. His 7th start, 4th at home with 1 quality start. SO numbers are rising, but long ball has been served in every game except one. Luis Atilano pride of San Juan coming off a bad game, but very capable of hanging in with Maine and given their identical record and Nationals even game on the road makes this a fair game with value to the visitors.

NATIONALS +152 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Thursday

YTD 0-2

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers.

Brewers +114 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Thursday

Baseball handicappers, How are you all doing? It's about time to get this show under way. I'm late as it is and time is money. I've been busy putting a list of who's who in the handicapping world. Hopefully I'll have enough to put something up in few months.

Moving on to Thursday getting a little warm up before the weekend.
Atlanta Braves at St Louis Cardinals. Take listed starters Jair Jurrjens vs Adam Wainwright. With Braves losing 8 straight and one shy of getting swept by St Louis who doesn't like the Cards? I don't not at -179 with Wainwright stock hitting a high while Jurrjens laking recent wins still showed pretty good pitching. Braves makes the value play with Jair on the hill. If you like the Over that's what the books want you to take. There's pressure to move the O/U to 7.5 from 7 so if you must make the move early, but I think the Under at 7.5 is the correct total.

BRAVES +181 for 1 unit(L)