World Series Game 6

Back for game 6. Phillies stays alive and here we are back in New York. Andy Pettitte top MLB playoff pitcher on record. No losses this season 3 wins out of 4 starts. He will make his 5th appearance repeating 2003 feat. Second against the Phillies first time resulted in first playoff non quality start giving up 4 runs on 5 hits in 6 inning, giving up 2 homers. It didn't matter with Yankees scoring 8 Andy got the win. Pedro Martinez knows the Yankees well he's kept his poise and hitter off base. Last start at Yankee stadium 3 runs on 3 hits going 6 inning, he too gave up 2 long balls. Too bad Phillies had only 1 run to support making Pedro the loser.
So tale of two veteran pitchers with different outcome come together. We have a lot of power at the plate and 2 games have gone over in a row. This one falls Under with Andy in bounce back spot and Pedro to keep rolling. I'm not sure if Phillies will force game 7, but I do think the score will fall Under.

PHL/NYY UNDER 9 at -101 from Pinnaclesports

World Series Game #2

Game #1 pitchers battle plays out with Cliff Lee going 9 with no earned run looking sharp taking out the meat of Yankees line up. It was pretty close, but late inning was all Phillies. On game #2 Pedro Martinez against AJ Burnette. Reminds me of old Yankees Stadium when Pedro wore a Red Sox uniform as visitors and the crowd jeered "Who's your Daddy!". That was wild, how long ago was that? I haven't made a visit to the new Yankee Stadium, but the Bronx crowd is not going to change.
AJ got hit by the Angels in his last post season appearance and Pedro is coming off a very good outing so Phillies on short dog seems reasonable, but AJ at home is where he performs. Take the Yanks to put the series back to square.

YANKEES -118(W)

NLCS Game #4

Freeway World Series? That notion is melting like ice on scotch. Is there any flicker, any sign at all for one of these L.A. team to keep playing? I'd like to think so Dodgers are due up, do or die, with their best post season pitcher Vicente Padilla. He's pitching aggressive staying ahead and winning games. Dodgers have won all three October starts last game Vicente went toe to toe with Pedro for 7 inning 4 hit 1 run ND. 4 quality start out of last 7 with 4-0 record Dodgers have won 6-1. Cole Hamel stopped his losses against the Dodgers, but it wasn't like cutting butter. He gave up 2 HRs going 5.3 inning 8 hits 4 runs. Cole has only 2 quality start out of last 7 with record of 3-3, Phillies have 3-4 record. So Dodgers have a shot here! They were right there in last game they will sent this series back to L.A....I'd like to think so, but I ain't playing that. I will go against the losing team coming off a blown save playing on the road. Head to head match up in Philadelphia in recent season is undisputable and Phillies have got to the Dodgers twice, when their starting pitcher was rocked and when trailing late. I'd say there's good chance this comes to finish in the city of Brotherly Love. The consideration for possible elimination and strength of Padilla's road start will go to the Under.

PHL -136
UNDER 8.5

MLB Monday

ALCS Yankees at Angels Game #3
New York sits in a Cat Bird Seat and send veteran Andy Pettitte who has been a long time regular in post season appearance. More importantly for New York Andy wins many of them. Outstanding on the road and he will keep those base runners honest with one of the best pick off move in the Majors. It also neutralizes one aspect of Angels weapon. Andy will also face Angels in offensive slump with surging LOB number and runs becoming a rarity. Yanks aren't hitting all that great either, but they are winning 2-0 in best of 7 series that puts all the pressure on Angels. Does the road dog Yankees look tempting? Before you lick your chops Angels starter Jered Weaver has shown his nasty side and it is very prone at home. The other is Angels home field and head to head match up in Anaheim all back by strong numbers for the Halos. The most compelling is still the Under and conditions looks good for this trend to extend today.

Andy Pettitte 11 quality start out of 17 away with excellent team record 12-5. 2-2 last 5 Total 1-4 O/U. Away games O/U 4-11, against the West 1-3, as a Underdog 1-3-1, in Day games 2-6-1.
Last start at Minnesota went 6.3 inning 3 hit 1 run with 1 BB and 7 SO.
Jered Weaver 13 quality start out of 17 home with just as good team record 12-5. 1-4 last 5 Total 0-5 O/U. Home games 6-9-2, Last home start went 6 inning 6 hits 2 runs with 3BB and 1 SO. Numbers may not be as pronounced as Pettitte, but WHIP is stingy 1.06 for Jered at home. Yankees 5 straight Under, Angels 4 Under out of 5.
NYY/LAA UNDER 8.5 at 100(L)

Jorge Posada routine line drive keeps going for a HR in late inning?

ALCS Friday

Finally the line has moved and mind as well wait for the closing minute to take the visiting Angels. It just doesn't sit right when NYY this high on public list and C.C. get's lower than normal ML at home.

LAA +167(L)

MLB Playoff Saturday

Dodgers are tough at home and they proved it against their nemesis St Louis Cardinals who in past 100 match ups won 62%. Looking at more recent samples last 14 head to head in St Louis is better than 78% amazing number reflecting domination. Cardinals are backed into a corner do or die and La Russa will pull no punches. Piniero goes for the home team in crucial game 3. He's getting some bad media write up with losses mounting since September, but able to get 6+ inning in 5 out of last 7 and home WHIP 1.093 last faced the Dodger in July 29th going 8 inng pitchers duel against Kershaw giving up 1 run, striking out 7 in No Decision, Cardinals victory 3-2. He was ND Cardinal loss in last start against Milwaukee Oct 4, but likely spot to improve and should produce good number of ground outs. Dodgers will start Vincent Padilla who has paid dividends and wins on the road. Although Padilla's last 7 starts have resulted 6 Dodgers wins he's pitched quality in only 2 out of last 7 and his road WHIP of 1.260 has ballooned to 1.400 in last 3. He's providing around 5 inning and not tested outside of NL West, except Washington with ND gave up 4 runs in 5 inning, and lately not inducing grunders entering hostile territory. Pretty tall order for Dodgers to sweep St Louis, but that's what I'm going to back with wagering public over whelming St Louis. Despite the odds and opinion Cardinals will pay dearly for game 2 that got away. Padilla does not shoulder the weight he doesn't need to go further than 5 with L.A. bull pen not giving an inch. You know the Dodgers have outscored their opponents early to the tune of 121-54

LAD +153(W)

Dodgers roll!

MLB Post Season Friday

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Now that division series hangover has eased maybe Twins will make a game of this? But what's the excuse for 7 other losses handed by the Yanks. You know the cliche post season is a whole new animal so along with perfect losing season, Yanks home wins, past post season wins all get a wash? I'm not basing anything on match up intangibles Yankees are clear favorite, but will they win Friday? Blackburn is coming in very much improved with contracting WHIP from 1.091 last 7 to 0.905 last 3 compared to Burnett's WHIP which has climbed to 1.488 last 7. Burnett pitched against Twins twice this season 1 win 1 ND both 1 run games both when Minnesota was still mediocre. Blackburn went against Yankees once ND at Bronx going deep and had the Twins right in there. That might not be enough, but good enough to take Twins +1.5

Taking Under as well with Burnett home O/U 5-11, against AL Central 1-5, Blackburn away 3-13-1, against AL East 1-3-1, against RH starter 7-13-1. Last 15 Twins match up in New York 4-8-3.

MINNESOTA +1.5 at +130(W)

MIN/NYY UNDER 10 at +100(W)

Good night

MLB Playoff Thursday

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Anaheim is a tough place for opposition and head to head home team holds definate edge. Angles 49-32 home. They are also returning big 37-17 against LH starter with 22.5% ROI 26-17 against AL East with 22% ROI. The problem is John Lackey 42% at home 7 quality out of 13 with Angels 6-7 losing 2 ND's 4 quality out of last 7 with 3-1, team record 4-3 reflecting ND to Loss at 3:1 clip.

Red Sox are solid and built for Post Season. If any weakness are found maybe 39-42 away, 13-21 vs American League West, but Jon Lester is the top money pitcher for Boston. 13 quality out of 18 road starts, 6 quality out of last 7, 17-6 against RH starter with 18 quality starts and 22-8 as favorites with 21 quality. I will take Boston to steal one and take the Total Under.

MLB Saturday

Late season games at it's best. Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers on slate tonight with 16 game winner Jorge De LaRosa pitching against young Clayton Kershaw. As many L.A. faithfuls gave high fives when Dodgers crushed the Nationals to start their road trip back on 9/22 that's all history it's all gone down hill from there, 2-6, dropping the series in Pittsburgh who Dodgers have owned forever and getting swept in San Diego with no offense in sight. Back to L.A. with Wolf also failed and now it's very interesting. Clayton was brilliant in first half, but this is a different pitcher on the mound who is win less in last 10 starts, Dodgers only cashed 1 ND, and now under 50% quality at home. Rockies come to play with De La Rosa on the mound winning 20 games behind him. He's also the Rockies top money pitcher with 69% money away. How can you blame me for taking this dog.

ROCKIES +131(L)

MLB Wednesday

Florida Marlins at Atlanta Braves. Considering Braves position and Javier Vazquez's impressive September pitching you have to go with Bravos here, right? Ricky Nolasco is ok, but over matched, last 7 starts 3-1 with Marlins failing his ND's 3-4, facing Atlanta line up beating opponents by nearly 3 runs in last 7 games. It's understandable to pay the price or give the runline, but if you follow the backers profit you'll see Javier despite his 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP has accumulated zero, little below zero. where Ricky has banked. Marlins have done more than ok when Ricky starts the game on the road at 10-6. Take the dog money.

MARLINS +183(W)

If you didn't see it check out the game wrap. This was a give me.

MLB Monday

Andy Pettitte and the NY Yankees at Anaheim matched up with best in the West. Angels at home winning 62% 44-27, against the East 62% 25-15 and kills lefty starters 68% 32-15. Head to head Angels 2 seasons is 11-6 and at home 8-1. Joe Saunders (13-7) 5-1-1 last 7 and he has been money. Angels crushing Texas in final of series and extend their lead comes home with offense heating up. Yankees failed to take Seattle series with this tougher opponent coming up. All this said I like the Yanks tonight. Andy Pettitte has excelled away and he is 8-2, Yankees 11-3, his last 7 is 4-0 with NY 6-1 while Joe Saunders 13-7, Angels 17--11 has been winning at home, but home or away lacks quality. Joe has his games, but it's not consistent enough and I don't see the Yankees line up being forgiving.

Taking NY Yankees -104(L)

MLB Saturday

September 19
MLB Saturday
Big Bad Penny wearing a Giants uniform makes his way back to the scene circa 2006. The former Dodger, Red Sox reject, is once again looking like a warrior in NL bringing 3 straight quality starts all wins including one against the Dodgers at the Bay. Here we go for round two.

NL West division rivals are all at each other except San Diego at Pittsburgh. Rockies has lost it's grip on the road and for the Giants playing the Los Angeles series will need to win it if not win it all.

First game both teams nearly emptied everything they had and it was pretty tight until Billingsley entered as a reliever. Chad now moved out of the rotation which will most likely benefit the Dodgers for now. Jon Garland, ex-Diamondback, will get this spot and Jon has not lost as a Dodger, 2 wins and 1 ND, looks like a must watch, but many will sit out on taking stake. I'll play the Dodgers in L.A 60% winners at home, 64% winners against division while Giants are 43% away, 45% under dog and 50% against division. Plus looking at how much pitchers both teams burned last night that's going to hurt Giants more than Dodgers.

LA DODGERS -139 (W)

Rockies on the ropes at sea level. Started on road winning game 1 at San Diego, but it's been down hill from there going 1-6. Jason Hammel get the ball and he has been quality of late, but again Rox mirror two opposite side at home and away with Jason on the mound.
Max 9-9 with Snakes 15-13, winner at home 6-4, team 9-5, and that's what I'll take.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -111

MLB Tuesday

Today I like John Lackey and the Angels matching up with Daisuke Matsuzaka in Fenway.
I understand it's Fenway in September, but it's also Lackey in September and Dice K is a long shot. Maybe not a long shot he does get the big pay check, but I'll go with what's now and no one is leading the way like John Lackey is for the Angels. Can't say the same about Dice man.

Angels -118 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Monday

Wandy Rodriguez has been pitching well he's 13-9 and Astros are 18-11. Wandy has been quality 4 out of last 5 breezing through 7 inning with only 85 pitches in his last start. Astros also playing winning ball 7 out of last 10 going tonight in Cincy the Reds are 1-6 in last 7, has not scored more than 4 runs except once in that span, scored 4 once and five times 3 runs or less it looks all good for the visitors, but that nice record by Wandy holds true at home not away. His most recent 4 road trips have resulted in loss or ND leading to Astros loss. Bronson Arroyo going for the Reds and deserves much better than current record. Tonight the Reds are back home coming off 2 consecutive 10 hit games maybe Arroyo gets his much needed run support. Play against Houston away with Cincinnati home dog.

REDS +118(W)

MLB Friday

Twins are back home for 9 and surely there's a sense of urgency, isn't there? The window of opportunity hasn't completely trade Clayton Mortensen. He debut with St Louis back on 6/29 vs the Giants who promptly pounded him for 6 runs in 3 relief innings of work. Clayton debut with A's on 8/8 vs KC 8 runs in 4 inngs of work. Match up record in Minnesota where A's are 2-11 going back to 2006 there's not much expected today. Nick Blackburn getting his game in order at home he's 6-3 with team record of 8-5 only thing your pondering is taking -1.5 RL or laying the juice. The problem with taking Twins at this price with a losing pitcher, however improved, and uninspired games is asking for some hurting. A's with their losing record has the better money record and isn't that what we're after.

A's +191(W)

MLB Thursday

Los Angeles Angels is the team to beat in AL West and they got Texas hot on their heels. Backers are fairly comfortable with Iron man Big John Lackey taking the mound against Ryan Rowland Smith and Seattle Mariners. Why not when Anaheim has been tough on visiting opponents Halos taking 60% of home games at 41-26.
John Lackey coming off a impressive pitchers dual in KC going 9 innings allowing 1 run. He has been quality 5 out of last 7 starts. On Mariners side Rowland Smith has 3 quality starts in a row also 5 out of last 7 and Mariners have played the Angels toe to toe this season 10-9, of those games 8 with one run difference. Are we in for another tight pitching low scoring game? I don't like tonight's pitching spot. Lackey's last 7 with 5 quality starts Angels logged 3-4, he's logged 333 pitches in last 3 and his backers are losing money 12-10 team record not enough to cover the juice. Seattle's Rowland Smith went 8 innings in last start scattered 4 with 3 ER looked good, but away games are going Over and he's thrown 327 pitches in last 3. This is a likely regression spot for one or both pitchers and the Total is 8. Angel Compos behind the plate has a pretty good strike zone, but he's averaging 9 runs. L.A. is nearly 59% Over at home and facing LHP is 57% Over

OVER 8(L)

MLB Wednesday

The new Yankee stadium has been referred as a home run friendly park and the Bronx Bombers certainly fit the bill especially in AL, but that kind of label also drives the O/U Total toward public perception bringing the Yanks home 0/U record to 31-34. You know the Rays are playing Under to the tune of 0/U 29-40 away from Trop, 11-22 as Underdogs and Jeff Neimann (12-5) has been lowering his WHIP down to 1.08 in last 7 starts. New York's Joba Chamberlin is no doubt pitching Over, but he did blank Tampa in 8 innings of work. Chamberlin's only thrown 190 pitches in last three starts combine a generous strike zone from Fieldin Culbreth and take the UNDER 10.

TAM/NYY UNDER 10 at -110 for 1 unit

Dog Days of Summer Saturday MLB Pick

Can't keep me away too long. There's a quiet battle going on shadowed by Yanks at Red Sox. The game is SF Giants at Colorado Rockies. Keep your eyes on two teams playing the hot track. Giants take round one with Rox losing more than the game. They lost key pitcher Aaron Cook. Now they'll send Jorge De La Rosa 135.2 innings of work with excellent results, 8-1 for last 10 and Rockies winning 9 of 10. Tonight Jorge comes in with 20K's in last 13.1 innings over 2 games this is out of his norm. He also threw too many pitches and benefited from strong offense.
The other side is Joe Martines who is lacking seasonal data and he does labor on the mound showed his most effective start against the Mets. The out come looks closer than indicated by the odds and these two Over trending pitchers will get Bill Miller with O/U 8-17

SF GIANTS +188 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

I have some interest in Chicago Cubs today facing the visiting World Champions Philadelphia Phillies. Purely a pitching speculation, but I think Harden will out do Happ. Keep in mind it's just a thought this match up on paper says Phillies and Happ will take the game, but odds makers are pointing to the Cubs. The problem is the risk of Phillies comeback in late inning. Take the short game.

CUBS First 5 innings*(PUSH)

Mid Summer Baseball

Don't you guys love it. When hot lazy days under the shade calls for boys of summer to take the field that familiar sound of Rawling in the air. Snap of the leather, crack of the bat it take you back to a place and time only you remember. Maybe in Birmingham, Tulsa, Albuquerque or somewhere where there's a field and young men with dreams of MLB. I will be watching, following and wishing you well.

Catch me on the flip side.