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Monday, October 29, 2012

MLB Season 2012 is done

Giants win the World Series. Just like 20 of the 23 teams that lost 3 straight games Detroit Tigers make it 21 out of 24 teams to get swept. Thanks for following along.  It's been a great handicapping season as we have won 7-2 in post season gaining 6,720 and 98-65 regular season gaining 41,505 for total winnings of 48,225, didn't quite get to 50K, but not bad for  7 months of work. Just because baseball season is ending doesn't mean it time for vacation  Football season is under way. NHL is in holding pattern and I'll be switching over to NBA at moneyplaysnba.blogspot.com as the hard court will kick off on Halloween.
Looking forward to seeing all of you court side

How much did we make again? Cool 48,225 match sticks !

Saturday, October 27, 2012

World Series Game 3

I'm being selective on my plays. I liked the Tigers in game two with homeboy Fister taking  the mound, but fortunately couldn't go against the hot home team. Took a pass on that bullet and the Under was bit over priced for my taste.

Here's a thought shared by many, the Tigers down 2-0 will rebound at home, and it's a situation with 50 sampling showing 0-2 team winning 27 out of 50. Detroit may have been slow to warm up, but in this spot they better heat up fast or else they may end up like the 23 teams that lost game 3, 20 out of 23 got swept. However out of 27 winners majority took the series to 6 games. Desperation is a motivator and we've seen plenty of those in this year's playoff, but anticipated win is a dangerous thing. The way I see this game or the sequence of games, after Zito's game 1 win was Detroit winning with Fister pitching quality in low scoring game which did not go Tiger's way,  leading to Ryan Vogelsong  and Anibal Sanchez. Both pitchers are having strong post season, but as larger sample show Ryan's performance drops away from the Bay and Anibal coming into a decline spot. Despite Anibal's knowledge of the Giants from his NL days, his numbers against them are good, I fade him after coming off a game giving up no runs. If the situation holds true this game will go Over 7. The Giants go Over away better than 62% clip and back the Giants based on pitchers money standings. Vogelsong second in money with S.F. rotation while Sanchez is a money losing pitcher at the bottom of the Detroit rotation.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +140 for 1 unit(W)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS at DETROIT TIGERS
Game Total OVER 7 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
1-1 +0.30 units
Funny how these games turn out. I should of lost the side and won the Total, but that's baseball.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

World Series Game 1

It's come down to these two teams and looking at it from a wagering perspective the odds for the series is the Giants +150 and the Tigers -170. Even with the magic of Zito and the surging Giants at home game 1 is Giants +156 to Tigers -166 with Justin Verlander. If you stumbled upon MLB in it's final series and read all the baseball talk Justin is invincible and the Giants will not stand in the way of Detroit Tigers championship.
I'd fade that thought. Justin Verlander has been good of a pitcher as can be in post season, but his woes have come on the road. His sequence of extended quality starts doesn't have much higher to go meaning performance decline is inevitable. Barry Zito has history of disappointments and it's as though his performance is not registering like an anomaly waiting to return to mediocrity. The Giants have fed off that same sentiment throughout the post season and I will play the home dog.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +156 for 1 unit(W)
Hows that for rockin start of World Series game ONE! Yeah Kung Fu Panda! Zito quality!

Sunday, October 14, 2012

MLB Sunday

Coming off a very exciting finish taking the Over in bottom of 9th in dramatic post season fashion. We're back in business for another game in Bronx.

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
We bucked the Under trend yesterday, but it was not easy. The total has let off the down ward trend and come back to a reasonable number. Still it's a low number between two power teams capable of putting up crooked numbers. The difference will be Hiroki Kuroda, high quality home pitchers, for the Yankees going against Anibal Sanchez, high quality road pitcher, and these two pitchers have excelled in matching up Under.
The trend still moving Under though not as strong as yesterday. Backing the game to stay below.

DETROIT TIGERS at NEW YORK YANKEES
Game Total UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Saturday, October 13, 2012

MLB Saturday

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
ALSC series Tigers are peaking at the right time and this is the team everyone was expecting the whole season. New York battled the tenacious Baltimore team and won in 5 games. It was some battle indeed and it may have taken quite a bit out of the star studded Yankees making this a interesting first game. Doug Fister taking the ball for the Tigers. He is a middle of the pack, bit on the red in money, pitcher coming off a quality win against Oakland. He has been very good in September and October with only 2 non quality losses. He is a home pitcher and road record is 4-7 with higher ERA and WHIP. New York will send veteran Andy Pettite who is also an middle of the pack pitcher, but on plus side of money. He got little run support in recent two losses, but normally gets healthy dose of runs. Andy 6-1 at home despite going 7 innings only once in last 6 starts. He is also trending Under at home 1 over to 6 under and New York stadium games going Under has been the case for many games this season. However the line has come down to 7.5 which is really low here. One of the key fact of New York Under trend was backed by the high total, but that's not the case today. Looking for this one to buck the trend.

DETROIT TIGERS at NEW YORK YANKEES
Game Total OVER 7.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Baseball Gods showing me some love! 4 run 9th puts this one Over 6-4 Tigers.

Monday, October 08, 2012

MLB Monday

Washington Nationals at St Louis Cardinals
Looking around getting a feel for this game and St Louis at home is the perception by the majority. The Cards have not lost a back to back since mid September, their strength is at home, these two teams have matched up 24-8 Cardinals in last 32 game played in St Louis. However this year has favored Washington and the play is to follow the money team Washington. Zimmermann has been quality and though with extended wins will be entering uncharted territory he has been bank. Jamie Garcia is money loser in St Louis rotation. He is stronger at home, but not by much. Taking the Nationals.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS -104 for 1 unit(L)

Sunday, October 07, 2012

MLB Sunday

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
It's feeling like October baseball. C.C. Sabathia on the hill for the Yankees going against Jason Hammel coming off a DL for Baltimore. Both pitchers have been money however Jason has not pitched in a month. He says he's not concerned with his knee and the O's are playing good ball so we'll track his play. Both of these teams have played Under for their season and games are expected to get tighter in October, but today's line has dropped quite a bit from the opening 8.5 to 7.5 and games these two teams played in New York has favored Under, but Camden has been Over. Hammel trends Over at home 6-3 while Sabathia is Over 11-3 away. Taking the game to go Over in Camden Yards.

NEW YORK YANKEES at BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Game Total OVER 7.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
Had you guys sweating it out all the way to the 9th inning. Have no fear it ain't over till it's over.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

MLB Saturday

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
This is a match up of similar teams. The Reds are 47-34 away and the Giants are 48-33 at home. The Reds with pitcher Johnny Queto on the mound are 22-11 and the Giants with Matt Cain 21-11. Queto 2.78 ERA, Cain 2.79 ERA and though S.F. Giants are going up in price as the betting window is near close the take here is the Reds. Cincinnati have played well against the Giants this season beating Cain twice. AT&T park has been neutralized. Taking the Reds and playing the reverse run line.

CINCINNATI REDS +115 for 1 unit(W)
CINCINNATI REDS -1.5 rRL +175 for 1 unit(W)
Post season grip! 2-0 +2,900

Friday, October 05, 2012

MLB Friday

TGIF people.

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Darvish has made a point as a Major Leaguer and he can very well perform at this level plus some. However Texas Ranger reeling and now in the corner. Can they pull this one out at the Ballpark in Arlington? As a heavy favorite the wagering public says "Yes" But in a close game, a tight game, Baltimore has done it timeafter time. Lefty Joe Saunders will help guide the Birds in this sure to be exciting match up. Backing the O's as the big dog

Baltimore Orioles +187 for 1 unit(W) 

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

MLB Wednesday

97-65 +40,505

New York Mets at Miami Marlins
This is another under the radar type of game. Not much attention two pitchers with little fan fare. Not much to gauge the pitching range so little to predict the direction of their performance. However I would give this one to Jeremy Hefner with 86 innings under his belt. He doesn't have much of quality starts and he's been banged around, but he did go 7 innings of 3 hit no run game with 7 punch outs. I don't think he will exceed that today, but he did string 2 quality games the last time, he followed an 8 innings 1 run game against Houston with 6 inning 2 run game at Miami, both games winners. Maimi Marlins starter Tom Koehler, from what I see so far, is a road pitcher and he labored in last 2 relief appearances, one of them against the Mets, and I expect more of same. The Marlins struggle against losing teams to continue as the pick today is New York Metropolitans to roll.

NEW YORK METS +100 for 1 unit(W)

This concludes 2012 regular season MLB picks. Just about equaled Washington Nationals win & loss record and made more money than Oakland Athletics. Don't go away Post Season coming up!

SEASON RECORD 98 wins & 65 losses
Money +41,505 

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

MLB Tuesday

96-65 +38,895

S.F. Giants at L.A. Dodgers
Love the rivalry L.A. hanging by the skin of their necks. The game today with L.A. season on the line at the Chavez Ravine the wagering public has that "No way will the Dodgers lose today" feel. The line has risen towards the Dodgers all morning even though the line was already pushing Dodgers at the Open! There is absolutely no value in taking the Dodgers. Not in money line or run line as this game promises to be close most likely a one run difference. I think Zito has risen in late season while Capuano has declined and as much as L.A. wants this game it doesn't make it so. Going against the climbing line with San Francisco Giants at a good size dog.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +161 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, October 01, 2012

MLB Monday

96-64 +39,895

Had some problem with "MLB Sunday" I did have a winner with S.F. Giants, but the write up did not post as scheduled. It was most likely my error. Hope to make it up today.

Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
St Louis is magic number 2 away from getting into the post season and they are making a charge. Just won the Nationals series to open at home and those two wins were crushing 12-2 & 10-4. That's against the top team from NL East, but the Cardinals urgency combined with offensive outburst has increased the price as a favorite maybe much higher than where it should be. Jaime Garcia pitching for the Cardinals is in a spot to decline as Bronson Arroyo is in a spot to improve. The Red are looking to take the top seed in National League and they're not laying down here.

CINCINNATI REDS +150 for 1 unit(L)

Saturday, September 29, 2012

MLB Saturday

95-64 +38,705

 Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
  This is the game of No#4 and 5 in AL Central. Not much attention on this match up there's other games with urgency more importance. I see most players have passed on this one, but if you had to gauge it Cleveland at home, winning 2 straight from Kansas, gets the vote, the public vote. Jeanmar Gomez will take the mound for the Tribe and he is a ongoing project. Back from the pen to fill the rotation he is good on relief, but has given up tons as a starter. Jake Odorizzi debut in that 15-4 loss against Cleveland responsible for 3 of those runs going 5 innings and took the loss. You can't really hold Jake to that one sided game. Fading Jeanmar and the Tribe tonight. Kansas City to stop the bleeding and 3 straight wins for Cleveland has come to a peak.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS +119 for 1 unit(W)

Friday, September 28, 2012

MLB Friday

95-63 +39,795

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
The Ballpark at Arlington has produced 49-29 record for Texas. The Rangers just split the series with Oakland 2-2 and today welcome the Angels with Jered Weaver taking the mound. He has been outstanding with the Angels going 22-6 by far the biggest money winner in Angels rotation. Ryan Dempster going for Texas is the no#2 money pitcher in the Ranger's rotation. He was killed just 2 starts ago against Weaver and the Angels, but that seems to be an anomaly. Ryan regained form in last start against Seattle getting a quality win. These two pitchers able to go through 7 innings plus on any given start shutting down their opponent yet the Total have typically under estimated the game. We have this one holding at 9 with money slightly Under. Both pitchers come into this spot with room to improve and this one should go Under.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS at TEXAS RANGERS
Game Total UNDER 9 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

Thursday, September 27, 2012

MLB Thursday

95-62 +41,085

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays will have a say in the out come of AL East. They've already split the series against the O's and now they welcome New York Yankees starting Ivan Nova back at Rogers Center in Toronto. The problem is the two games they won at Baltimore were the only 2 games they won in their 10 game road trip. Toronto even failed against two sub .500 teams prior to their long road trip, against Seattle and Boston, and as much as a road trip bounce back game should come into consideration. There is an stronger angle with Toronto coming off a loss giving up double digit runs which is a absolute fade against the Blue Birds. Take Super Nova on the road and fade Toronto on their revenge play.

NEW YORK YANKEES at -129 for 1 unit(L) 

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

MLB Wednesday

95-62 +39,955

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Back to Petco for more Dodgers Padres. Today L.A. will start Aaron Harang 9-10 with the Dodgers recording 12-17. He has yet to win in September and the Dodgers have lost 5 straight Harang starts. However Aaron performs much better on the road and though he's not pitching deep the runs are holding 3 or less. Padres Clayton Richards has been winning games 5 out of last 6 with Padres winning all 6, but the hits are mounting and today the balls may get through. Looking for the Dodgers to take this at Petco Park.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS +113 for 1 unit(W)
Picked up the Dodgers at their best price and we are over 40K  yeah baby!

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

MLB Tuesday

94-62 +38,955

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
The Padres are winning team at home with 40-35 record. That also holds true to San Diego starter today Edinson Volquez splitting 30 starts 15 away 15 at home and while his road ERA is 5.60 at home it's 3.11  much better 9 quality starts with 1.26 WHIP. San Diego returning from 2-4 road trip will be happy to be back at Petco Park. The visiting Dodgers are still clinging to their playoffs hope sending Josh Beckett to the mound. His last start Beckett pitched over 7 innings though getting a ND the Dodgers got the win at Washington. Beckett has shown flashes of his past, but he only has 2 quality starts in last 7 with Dodgers going 2-7. His road record is 3-8 with 5.07 ERA and 1.37 WHIP making Padres home Under dog a tempting play. However both of these pitchers are in a spot to improve. Looking for tough scoring game. 

LOS ANGELES DODGERS at SAN DIEGO PADRES
Game Total UNDER7 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
1-2 Padres and the game is Under.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

MLB Sunday

93-61 +38,965

We have been rocking the bases as of late, for the last week to be exact, the blog has gone 7 out of 7 since last Saturday and looking forward to upcoming post season. Sunday day games are the games we enjoy. Going out to Flushing Meadows in Queens for the Marlins at N.Y. Mets

Miami Marlins at N.Y. Mets
Ricky Nolasco for the Marlins is 12-12 the Fish has gone 14-15 with Ricky on the mound. He is looking strong in last 4 starts going 3-0 with 1.20 ERA and what's been consistent is grounders to fly ball ratio working around 1.80 that's working out to 13 or 14 pitches per inning. Nolasco should improve here. The New York Mets will send Chris Young 4-8, but also looking better of late. He's pitched 2 quality game losses and 1 win in September. That win was at Miami pitching 5 innings of 1 run game to take it 5-1 marking 4 straight wins against Miami.The Mets have won 6 straight against Miami now.  However Young is not a good bet at Citi Field and his performance may decline today. No sweep in New York taking the Fish to stop the slide.

MIAMI MARLINS -101 for 1 unit(L)

MIAMI MARLINS at N.Y. METS
Game Total UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 today. Final score 1-2 NY

Saturday, September 22, 2012

MLB Saturday

92-61 +37,965

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Pat Corbin is a 50% quality, 50% winner meaning he's holding his own in his rookie season. Arizona crushed Drew Pomerantz in 3 innings, Alex White got chased giving up 5 runs in 15-5 easily defeating Colorado. There is little doubt with Arizona in this second game. However Colorado will send their best pitcher in late season Jhoulys Chacin. He is lacking wins, but the Rockies are coming up shy of a run in last 3 starts, 2 losses and 1 ND, while giving up less then 2 runs 5 out of last 6 games. Jim Tracy ball has been risky in late inning so going with the first 5 innings of this match up.

COLORADO ROCKIES 
First 5 Innings -104 for 1 unit(W)

Private members also got OVER 10.5 on this game!
 

MLB Sunday

96-64 +39,895

Hello gang. Looks like another nice Sunday for Baseball. Took a hard fought game last night and for those who did not follow the game, it went down to the wire. Lucky or good I will take it.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
So the Giants are already in the Post Season race and the Padres are ready for off season. The Giants are tough on the road, 44-33 which is better than San Diego home record, and they are winning, 7 out of last 10,  The Padres were skidding 4 losses in a row until Stultz went 8 innings for last night's win. Today the Pads send Edinson Volquez 11-11with 4.13 ERA who is coming off 7 innings 6 hit shut out ball against the Dodgers, but as the record indicates he has his ups and downs. The Giants will go with Tim Lincecum 10-15 with 5.15 ERA who was rattled in last start against Arizona, 4 innings 5 hits 7 runs and 4 walks, but he was pitching quality games up to that point, 4 quality starts in a row, and should recover at pitcher friendly Petco.
Despite the Giants position to preserve their players for post season and San Diego's position to win it out at home especially against the division winner the play is on San Francisco with Lincecum in a spot to improve and Volquez in a spot to decline. The line has also moved in opposite direction to my advantage.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +110 for 1 unit