Saturday, September 30, 2006

Saturday National League Magic

Going with three magical teams in the National League race.

This is a monster power team on the heels of Playoffs. Take action with Wolf for Phillies.

PHL -113 for 2 units(W)

Dodgers on the rise. Cain on the hill for SFG, Maddux on 3 days rest and Nomar's not going so money is moving to SFG. Allow me to retort, Maddux is money against the Giants, solid on 3 days rest.

LAD +106 for 2 units(W)
San Diego, Wells in Arizona, Cruz.
Who's got late season Magic here?

SDP -118 for 3 units(W)

That's pure magic baby!
3-0 +7.12 units

Friday, September 29, 2006

Friday MLB

Colorado Fogg at Chicago Zambrano.
Carlos at home for day game lowers his performance. He did get the win against Reds in last outing, but also gave 4 earned runs with a homer.
Josh Fogg did earn a win at Atlanta, but batters are connecting and can't compare Josh (3-4 with 7.70 ERA 13 post All Star games) as a equal to Big Z (8-3 with 3.73 ERA 13 post All Star games). What should be noted is Colorado batting surge in last 10 games, right hitting .344 and left .312, both pens giving up tons. So do we back the Over? That's a ballsy play, but if your going to be ballsy go with Rox. That means your playing the hot bats to beat the hot pitcher. If you still like the Over buy the 0.5 down to 9.

COL +185 for 0.5 units(W)
COL +1.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)

Nice way to start the day.
Be back in awhile.

Milwaukee Capuano at St. Louis Weaver.
I'm not big on backing Jeff Weaver matter of fact I've had good gains fading this man, but Capuano will go down in St. Louis today. Cards are in a corner like a wounded animal they will attack ferociously.

SLC -120 for 2 units(W)

Nice way to end the day.
3-0 +4.925

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Thursday MLB

Dodgers still rolling though Angels fell out. In the current condition the field of National League West has the tight feel with Dodgers, Padres and Phillies in the mix. I'm not counting out Houston in NL Central, but the West is where I'm at.
Let's see if this will be a tight game.

SDP/ARZ Under 8.5 at -104 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.08 units

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Wednesday MLB Dog eat dog

Houston Hirsh at Pittsburgh Chacon.
Who's playing under pressure, Who can not afford any mistakes and who has trouble winning away from their home field? So all this riding on Hirsh?
Not with my money, fade the away team.

PIT +135 for 2 units(L)
Tampa Bay Corcoran at Boston Beckett.
I expected so much more from the Red Sox and I would of passed on this game if it wasn't for the value. The value on Devil Rays that is. Beckett got couple of wins in a row against tough opponents, but like his team there's not much to get his blood pumping against the lowly Rays. On the other side Rays win at Fenway would be something their players can hold in pride.
Take a chance at this price.

TB +227 for 1 unit(W)

Astros got lucky today, but the big dog cashes and today ends in plus money.
1-1 +0.27 units

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Missed Monday and Now it's Tuesday

And both my SoCal teams are alive and kicking.
Way to go Mariners rally against Street in the bottom of the 9th then deflate the A's in the 10th for the upset.
Well I was at Angel's Stadium yesterday and I'll be back there again.
I know the chances are almost none, but it's going to take the Angels in post season to take out the Yankees not Oakland A's, that's my opinion.
Yanks are going to cause problems for my World Series run with Detroit and Minny....I'll work on that.

Today looking more of the same. Angels to win, Dodgers to win, Phillies to lose and Oakland to lose...Padres to lose, but kind of like them as the road dog.
Taking the best of the lot.

LAD -112 for 3 units(W)

Bonus play:
LAD/COL Over 9.5 at -114 for 1 unit(W)
Mets Perez at Braves Smoltz.
Take the road dog action. Smoltz will be a non factor.

NYM +143 for 1 unit(L)
If your going to lose mind as well get your head cut off and be over with.

2-1 +3.00 units

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Sunday MLB

All I get from my friends are what's happening in Football. NCAA and NFL all weekend long. From Tuesday to Thursday MLB is a after thought with echoes of "So what happened in Baseball? You have any plays?" I'd say give it some thought or go flip a coin. At least read the game wrap and look at the box before calling me.

SF Giants Cain at Miller Park against Milwaukee Brewers Sheets.
I played the Total early and I'm not going to advise it the current inflated price and my Play was on the First Half (Under 4.5 at -119 for 2 units(W) *will be graded) I will make a play on SF Giants with CoCain on a bounce back to edge Big Ben. Got a small price improvement and I'll take it.

SFG +118 for 2 units(L)
Giants had a chance to the end.
Sunday Night MLB St. Louis Cards Jeff Weaver at Houston Astros Rocket.
Have to fade the Rocket coming in on short rest or the correct term would be to consider him a non factor. If that's the case Cards are a good buy! Sharps are catching this ride.

SLC +183 for 2 units(L)
I was wrong on Cards for sure.
1-2 -2.00 units

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Saturday MLB

Seattle Mariners Hernandez at Chicago White Sox Buehrie.
South Siders are down for the count, 2-8 last 10, and Buehrie got hit hard out of the gate in his last game.....that World Series Champion banner on their site looks less deserving right now. These boys were my bread and butter last season. The Mariners on the other side is making contact putting on base runners and Sharps are riding them.
But when I checked with the Books they said take Chicago to stop the skid.

CWS -124 for 2 units(W)
That's the way to rally.
1-0 +2.00 units

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Friday MLB

The days are numbered and these games need to be capped.

Florida Nolasco at Phillies Hamels.
Phillies huge home favs coming down the stretch. They must be a shoe in for the NL Wild card. Well the Fish are swimming in shallow waters and they sure like to be more than a spoiler. The big guns for Philadelphia are Lieber, Myers and Moyer not Hamels. You want to give the farm hand -200? Ricky Nolasco is not that bad so it's a good rookie match up with Phils in a up swing.
Want to play the dog with a bit more edge? Take the pen out of the equation.

FLA First 5 innings +172 for 1 unit(L)
Detroit Ledezma at Kansas City Hudson.
Have to take the Tigers against the soft teams. The AL Central will fight to the end and Tigers need to dominate this series.

DET -1 at -118 for 3 units(W)
DET -0.5 First 5 innings at +109 for 1 unit(L)
Should of taken the early line for Cleveland Byrd at Texas Eaton.
Like Texas and price has gone up, but I'll still take it.

TEX -135 for 1 unit(W)
Angels Weaver at Oakland Zito.
Hope the Halos do it here, but money backs Under

LAA/OAK Under 4.5 First 5 innings -124 for 2 units(W)
LAA/OAK Under 8 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

3-3 +2.95 units

Thursday MLB

Today the game is Detroit Robertson at Baltimore Benson.
I first looked at this game thinking Under, I do like the Under, but Tigers are showing signs of breaking out as the hit differential expanded to 2:1 last night against the CWS. White Sox pitching may not be where it was last season and most talks are focused on White Sox disappointment, Jon Garland is still one tough pitcher in Chicago. Tigers tattooed him and they are on the prowl.
O's Benson has been showing great form, but I think Nate is just as good.
Tigers will take this one. Took the line last night, but Detroit is still a buy at current price.

DET -117 for 3 units(L)
Wow, did I blow that one with +75% on Tigers. That's the magic number you have to fade the favs.
SFG Morris at MIL Bush.
If your following my write up you know I fade Morris on regular basis.
Hate to go to this well too many times, but it's still a good play.

MIL First 5 innings -115 for 2 units(W)
ARZ Webb at SDP Williams.
Zona to play the spoiler.

ARZ -108 for 1 unit(L)
ATL Smoltz at COL B.H. Kim
The games been flying Over in Denver.
Take this one the other way

ATL/COL First 5 innings Under 5 +108 for 1 unit(W)

2-2 -1.51 units

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Day game on Wednesday MLB

Cincy Arroyo at Houston Clemens.
Rockets got his tune up in and he should have a good game against the Reds.
His opponent Arroyo is pitching hot and this game has Under written all over.
Books are adjusting from 8 to 7.5 take the line on the over night.

CIN/HOU UNDER 8 at -119 for 2 units(L)


Atlanta Cormier at Washington Ortiz.
Take the Nationals at home.
Look for the game to stay tight for First 5 innings.
WAS -102 for 3 units(L)

ATL/WAS UNDER 5 First 5 innings at +106 for 1 unit(L)

Angels Escobar at Kansas City Perez.
The book says to play KC at home, but I can't support Perez and I need the Angels to sweep these guys. I'll take some caution by playing the first 5 innings
LAA -0.5 First 5 innings -105 for 2 units(W)

Astros too much for Reds and Braves too strong for Ortiz.
1-3 -4.44 units

Monday, September 18, 2006

Picture Perfect Monday MLB

The day seems brighter and it sure looks like a nice day outside.

This is what I like on this Monday, September 18th.

St. Louis Cards Reyes at Milwaukee Brewers Capuano.
Chris gets a lot of grief in post All Star Break, but maybe the critics don't realize if this guy was on another team his record might look very different. Chris did have a bad last outing, 9/13 PIT, but he has recorded 6 out of last 7 quality outings. Capuano at home 8-4 with 2.93 ERA, Brew Crew plays respectable 42-32 home record. Everybody has good things to say about Anthony Reyes, gets extra rest from "tired arm", has a shot at 3rd spot in post season, good fastball getting strike outs, well he doesn't win on the road much and he does not pitch deep.

MIL First 5 innings -115 for 2 units(W)
MIL -113 for 2 units(W)

Bonus play:
SLC/MIL Under 8.5 -107 for 1 unit(W)
Atlanta Braves Davies at Washington Nationals Armas.
Kyle Davies not fooling anybody and giving up timely hits. He is throwing too many pitches contributing to losses. Tony Armas is scary too and Braves are his nemesis, but if he is to have a good outing it'll be at home, 7-4 with 4.14 ERA at RFK. Nats pen is solid.

WAS -112 for 2 units(L)

Not quite perfect, but I'll take it.
3-1 +2.76

Sunday, September 17, 2006

It's late Sunday

Most of the games are done and I don't have deep thoughts on 2nd of BOS/NYY Sunday double header. Odds are Yanks to take this game against not ready for prime time Jarvis, but Yanks are on the pitch count with Moose and unknown factors with all the fill in spots holds Yanks over priced.
Yankees are playing looking at games to come and Boston is playing one game at a time. Boston as a overwhelming Under dog of +200 is pretty rare.
Boston is playing better ball in this series. I will take this as a chance play.
Now at +256... watching.

Should of taken it earlier.

The game is tied going to the 9th Coco Crisp robbing Posada's Home Run.
Told ya Red Sox's not that easy.

BOS +250 for 1 unit(W)
The big dog cashed.
1-0 +2.50 units

Saturday, September 16, 2006

Saturday MLB

Looking forward to BOS/NYY double header today. Red Sox are done, but they're able to put on a good show here. I'm not backing money, but if I was to take a chance take the 200+ money in the First Half -0.5 on Red Sox.

No more running games today just what I capped.
Florida Sanchez at Atlanta Smoltz. Game total 8.5 is getting hit
heavily Under and First 5 innings is trying to force the Over. Good pitching on both sides.
FLA/ATL Under 4 First 5 innings +105 for 2 units(W)

Bonus play on Braves with Smoltz at home to bounce back against rising Sanchez.
ATL -133 for 1 unit(W)
SF Giants Morris at St. Louis Cardinals Carpenter.
Playing the carry over again and fading Morris early.

SLC -0.5 First 5 innings -132 for 2 units(W)
That's much better.
3-0 +5.10 units

Friday, September 15, 2006

Friday MLB

Day game.

Reds B. Arroyo at Cubs Juan Mateo. Cubs are feeling pretty good about themselves taking 3 out of 4, 2 of 3 from West leading LAD and they are doing it the hard way. Cubs have good things to say about Juan and the progress he's making. They will welcome the slumping Reds who have dropped 10 out of 12 since 8/24. But you know Bronson Arroyo has been lights out and Mateo has not been on the winning side since 8/15, not recorded a win since 8/3 plus Cubs first game of series after a win is dismal 6-13. Reds hold the advantage in straight match-up this season and 3-3 in Wrigley. What I'm going to do is not go against Reds losing ways, but to back Bronson Arroyo.

CIN -0.5 First 5 innings +105 for 1 unit(W)
Next is Marlins D-Train at Atlanta Cormier. We have two Under pitchers coming in hot with very generous number. Beware of late innings.

FLA/ATL First 5 innings Under 5 -115 for 2 units(L)
Angels Weaver at Rangers Tejada. Angels are pitching their way through September with very little offensive help. Tejada is looking pretty good in his recent form. This match up which normally goes over has taken a turn.
Back the Under.

LAA/TEX UNDER 9.5 -114 for 2 units(W)
LAA First 5 innings -118 for 1 unit(Push)
Don't like the way Dodgers finished their road trip and today the Padres come to town right on their heels. Maddux and Wells looks like Over to me.

SDP/LAD Over 8.5 at -109 for 2 units(L)
Many are on A's at home against the so so White Sox. Not at all threatening team in September compared to Oakland at home. A's are 22-6 against Chicago at home. Then why is this line still even? Jon Garland on the mound is money and he's being down played against Loaiza who got whacked by the D-Rays, 8 runs 12 hits, he claimed doing nothing different. Players are adjusting and Loaiza prone to stringing bad outings.

CWS First 5 innings -105 for 1 unit(L)

Too many game? It was fun, but not productive.
2-3-1 -2.48 units

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Thursday MLB

Planning to make multiple plays today.
Start with the day match.

San Diego Padres Clay Hensley at Cincy Reds Aaron Harrang. Have a feeling this is going to be a carry over game for the Padres. Look at these two pitchers Clay is a small guy compared to 6'7" Harrang it just makes me want to root for Clay to slay the giant. Harrang is a non factor lately he's not bad, but team is not winning behind him and honestly it hasn't been close except SFG on 9/4 plus he is a road warrior lacking at home. Reds getting public love, but money moving away, movement at Pinny is ahead of the pack, Clay will battle you although his road record does not reflect he's been quality and was masterful in August. Hensley under the radar and pen is solid.

SDP +105 for 2 units(W)
Take 2 unders and call me after the game. Runs are coming just not enough.

BOS/BAL UNDER 10.5 +100 for 1 unit(L)

TAM/NYY UNDER 10 -109 for 1 unit(Cancelled)
Pitching scratch on Wang take this bet off.
I was planning on late addition LAA/TEX, but could not get on line so record ends 1-1 +1.10 units

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Making a Run in the West

Hell yeah I'll be at the game in sea of Red.
White Sox getting in the way to catch the A's and we're going to keep this match close. Halos at home on a mission....Twins & A's are fighting it out and hopefully Minny will do us a favor, but Lariano gone early with elbow pain Oakland bats are warming up. No matter we'll take care of business on our turf. With all this said my money backs the number to stay Under, I can't say for sure Halos pull out the win...I want them to, but that doesn't make it so.
I feel stronger on pitching to do the job.

CWS/LAA UNDER 9.5 at -104 for 3 units(W)
Day after all the upsets take down the close one, but the Halos take a slide.
1-0 +3.00 units

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Lets Rock Dolphin Stadium

Mets are in Florida with typical late summer Miami conditions and Thunderstorm looming humidity is very high, but winds are mild with 10mph blowing East expected to decrease by game time. This match up tells the tale of two pitchers coming off their respective outing with performance unlike themselves. Oliver Perez threw 9 innings shutout against the Braves with 1 walk at home. But lets not forget he is 3-11 with 6.58 ERA and 1-6 in his last 10 with 6.29 ERA. Josh Johnson took a beating against Phillies 9 hits, 5 runs, 4 walks in 4 2/3 innings. He was also touched in Milwaukee not figuring in the outcome and yes rookie in September is traditionally hard, but Marlins at home is a different animal Johnson was at the top of National League ERA before the last 2 games and currently holding at 4th. He is 11-5 in 23 games with 3.14 ERA since joining the rotation. He has 2 season starts against NYM and yet to give up a run to the Mets with 13 strike outs. Fish bats came alive yesterday and they will be tough here tonight.

FLA -119 for 3 units(L)
Got Rocked instead. Damn the Marlins pen.
0-1 -3.57 units

Monday, September 11, 2006

Monday Night NFL Twin Bill, nah A's at Twins

Here we go with the top match-up. Oakland enters a tough stretch coming into one of the hottest home turf in Minnesota. Joe Blanton will get the ball for the visiting A's and he has been tagged a bit lately. Carols Silva was shutting down the D-Rays when he claimed upset stomach and stepped off the mound. I'll give Silva the edge, but more so Twins as a collective will take this game.

MIN -108 for 3 units(W)
Bonus Total play.

MIL/PIT UNDER 8.5 at -118 for 1 unit(W)
The White Sox are in my town so I'll be in Anaheim wearing the Angels RED.
Might add a play here before I leave.

Did not make a play with Angels keeping all my winnings today.
2-0 +4.00 units

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Never mind the NFL keep your eyes on the round ball

Mid-day game in Southern California in September under the Sun. It's a perfect ball game weather today, but the market has shifted to Football.
Backing Roy Halladay 16-5 with 3.22 ERA at Anaheim. Angels giving the ball to young Jered Weaver 10-2 2.16 ERA he is pitching below -1.00 ERA at home. Should be a good game in perfect baseball condition. Under looks like the obvious pick it's been trending Under and Jays away makes this enticing the Books know that and gives the game a low 7.5 so lets play the Total for the First 5 innings. For the Sides I prefer to go against the current here and take the chance play against the Angels pen Scotty and K-Rod has been taxed heavy lately option may cough up this game. Don't get me wrong I love my Halos, I've even picked them over the A's as my long shot for WS, but Halladay underdog with consensus on Angels and money moving to Jays.

Roy is out of the game in 1st inning hit by a come-backer. Oh man, Towers is coming in with men on corners 2 outs and I'm only getting even money!

You never know what happens in a game.
TOR/LAA First 5 innings UNDER 4 at -115 for 1 unit(L)
TOR +100 for 2 units(L)

I'm chasing the late game to give you the warning and this is strictly a fade on Morris.

SDP +114 for 3 units(W)
1-2 +0.27 units

Saturday, September 09, 2006

Texas at Seattle

Rangers at Mariners. Starters are RHP Robinson Tejada vs LHP Jarrod Washburn. Mariners are 7-2 in their last home stand. Mariners comes into this game with 3 straight wins and 4 of their last 6. Mariners have turned it around since the 11 game losing streak Aug. 20th winning 11 of 16. Mariners against Rangers are 3-8, 1-6 at Arlington and 2-2 in Seattle. Washburn had his ups and downs 8-13 with the Mariners going 13-15 in his 28 starts, but keep in mind Mariners are tough as nails at home right now and Washburn is 3-0 with 2.25 ERA in his last 3 home starts. Texas dropped two in a row also snapping a 4 game win streak against the M's. Texas also recorded lowest production in last 11 games. Tejada comes in winning form with 3-0 and 2.63 ERA over his last 4 starts. He is better on the road with 4-1 winning record in 6 away appearance and improving to 3-0 1.29 ERA in last 3 away appearance. This game may look like a opportunistic play on Rangers, but I disagree the home team is hot and dropping price on Seattle make it a definite play.

SEA -120 for 3 units(W)
Couldn't close it in the 9th, but did it in 13 innings!
1-0 +3.00 units

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

To all the Capper, Players and Weekend Warriors

Party people hope all is well.
Feeling little stronger with my recent picks, but September is just brutal busy at the office with my day job and I am having difficulty publishing my thoughts on daily plays. I need to tie up some loose ends before getting back into the games so stayed tuned and we'll come out like the mob.