Saturday, August 30, 2008

MLB Sunday

1-0 last selection. YTD 79-56-2 +43.59 units

Sundays are day games. SF Giants are back to their losing ways, 1-4 last 5, dropping 2 on the road against the Reds. Giants are timely Underdogs that have paid out well for those in the know. This team from the Bay despite having 44% win have lost only -6.3 units compared to the top team Arizona with 51% win losing -10 units the trouble with this match up with NL Central loser Reds is that they are NL Central division team. Giants have lost bulk of their games to the Central division teams, 9-27, and Cincy has beat them 4-1. Match up has been going Over, but look for the trend to reverse with Cain on the road and Arroyo in great form.

SFG/CIN UNDER 8.5 at 100 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 78-56-2 +41.92 units

Busy weekend ! Football is in the air and I think it weakens the books with all the frenzy. They should be use to it, but it makes me feel a bit better thinking baseball info is not as sharp. Like to look at under the radar type games at this point.

Colorado at San Diego is one of them. It's a "who cares" type of game with Rockies mounting a quiet winning streak of 4 before dropping one and they are back on the win in game 1 against the Padre. But Padres are hitting of late and bull pen has been on the rise combine with Jimenez in a spot to decline from last outing. Pads put in a triple A call up, but in this pitcher friendly ball park has shined on the home team of late. Pads took out Webb, Randy Johnson and Jimenez could very likely be the next accomplished pitcher to go down in PetCo Park.
Go with the home team as a good size dog to keep the NL West in check.

SAN DIEGO PADRES +167 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.67 units

Friday, August 29, 2008

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 78-55-2 +42.97 units

SF Giants at Cincy Reds. We have a good pitching match up coming up and back the Under at Great American Ballpark.

SFG/CIN UNDER 8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

Thursday, August 28, 2008

MLB Thursday

1-1 last selection on a designed play. YTD 76-55-2 +40.97 units

This game, this match up today may not live up to it's past billing, but you gotta cap it and bet it like you mean it because Red Sox are in the Bronx for the final days of this storied stadium.
Jon Lester will lead the quest to put the daggard as the first 2 contest in this series was not even close.

Lester is #2 money pitcher after Matsuzaka. He's pitched 16 innings allowing 2 runs against the Yanks this year. Lester returns to Yankee Stadium where he shut down the Bombers going all the way on 7/03. He is coming off a bad outing against Toronto yet he has 5 quality starts out of last 7, 8 quality out of 10 against division and Boston has not lost Lester's start in a row.

Yankees maybe down, but they are not going away without a fight. Taking the home mound will be Bombers top money pitcher Mike Mussina. Yankees undefeated with Moose on the job in August. He is also 5 quality out of last 7. Mike also coming into a spot to improve after a non quality start with no decision. His 1.20 drops to 0.97 WHIP under daylight and Yanks stand 7-1

It looks like a good one and should be closer than the first 2. I'm taking the UNDER and backing Mussina to stop the bleeding at home. I expect Yankees bats to make their adjustments against Lester and salvage this series at Bronx. Yanks also 15-3 in game 3 of series after a loss.

BOS/NYY UNDER 9.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
NYY -118 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.00 units

Monday, August 25, 2008

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 75-54-2 +40.73 units

White Sox will kick it off in Baltimore by taking care of some unfinished business. Conclusion of 11 innings 3-3 tied game that was canceled due to rain back in April 28th. Looks like Chicago will send D.J Carrasco or Matt Thornton and O's have not yet announced their pitcher. Either way it'll eat up pitchers from the main event with Clayton Richard vs Chris Waters. Not much to say about these two pitchers with limited innings, but I don't see them going deep. The pens have been some what taxed coming into this series and I feel that bats will have advantage on both sides.

CWS/BAL OVER 11.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

This line has pushed to 12 and when you get a inflated contract, sell it.
Take the money without the risk no need to refuse good money on the table.

CWS/BAL UNDER 11.5 at +131 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.24 units

Sunday, August 24, 2008

MLB Sunday

1-1 last selection. YTD 74-54-2 +39.73 units

Through the course of games teams and stadiums develops a certain persona. Like Reds at home run friendly Great American Ballpark or Rockies at thin air Coors Field both of these teams are "Over" persona teams.. Home or away this match up has trended Over. Look at last nights game with both teams hitting double digits scoring combined 13 runs to crush OVER. and before that on Friday, same thing 13 runs. But following these two OVER games come a very interesting pitching angle.
Cueto vs Jimenez:
Cueto starts O/U 8-17-1, away 4-8-1, against R pitchers 3-13-1, against NL West 0-4, as Underdog 3-8-1, Aug starts 1-3 and day game 2-6
Jimenez starts O/U 8-19, home 3-10, against R pitchers 7-12, against NL Central 4-4, as favorites 4-14, Aug starts 1-3 and day game 2-6

CIN/COL Under 9.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Saturday, August 23, 2008

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 72-53-2 +37.73 units

I have some thoughts on Angels of Anaheim. The Boys from Big A are fine bunch, I love this team, they have been money all year long, but they are in a funk right now. When the Angels are on they are the top team in MLB they are balanced and can shut down or out score any opponent. So what's the matter with them? I'm going to chalk it to nature of baseball and right now Twins are the driven one's. Tampa took care of White Sox today and Twins can take the AL Central. Garland for the Angels weakest money pitcher in rotation and middle of line up is cool.
Blackburn can definitely take this away and eat up innings.

MIN +130 for 1 unit(L)
MIN/LAA OVER 9 at -112 for 3 units(W)

1-1 +2.00 units

Friday, August 22, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection on a big dog. YTD 71-53-2 +36.73 units

Let's keep our eyes on the ball. We are looking sharp lately and poised to do more damage.
Los Angeles Dodgers making that cross country trip to Philadelphia. Maddux is back from Pads and into the rotation. Dodgers are the talk of town ever since Manny arrived to L.A. all I hear is Manny this, Manny that and how much better Dodgers are. I guess that's a fact he's batting near .500 since joining L.A. Jeff Kent surging right in front is another good reason, but I think every one's too high on Dodgers. San Fransisco stole a series and so did Colorado at home as a result of miss ques, low energy and bad luck, all these things combined took down the superior team. Philadelphia maybe in similar situation with noticeable offensive power missing from the box scores, but they should be focused today. The advantage tonight is Phillies at home with sinker ball pitcher Kendricks taking the ball.

PHL -111 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Thursday, August 21, 2008

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 70-53-2 +34.25 units

When you think of Washington Nationals what comes to your mind? This team is on pace for worst of the worst in MLB and right now in mid of 12 game losing streak. They bleed red in every money situation and this team is a money making fader.

Has anyone not caught on? The deal here is like a hot crap table over filled with chips and if you are trying to get on the train late there's a chance it'll crash as the chalk thickens

Let's tread carefully and take a look at the red inked stats.

Home 23-39 Away 21-44 going bad to worst. 16-29 against division opponents.

August started hot with 4 wins then 6-1 in first 7 games, but they have been sliding ever since with only 4 out of next 12 cashing on +1.5 runline.

Runline winners have been followed by couple of big losers.
Moneyline 107 games logged Underdog, 10 games better than +200 dogs with 7 of those coming in August.

How many big dogs have they cashed? 3 out of 10 with 2 winners in August.

They will be facing a winning lefty pitcher at Philadelphia, Jamie Moyer 11-7 with 3.64 ERA, He's already won them twice and one ND with Phillies winning all three this season.

He has 6 quality start out of last 7 with 2.45 ERA

Also recorded a recent win, 7/30, against Redding at Washington.

Does all this justify laying the big chalk or runliine or maybe even give up -2 in search of better value? I'm starting to see it the other way. Moyer as good as he is right now is coming off a 7 inning 3 hit no run game at San Diego which is high end performance in terms of Jamie's average. I expect some down grade here and he has been weaker at home with 5 quality starts out of 12. Phillies are also in a bit of funk and the teeth of the line up is slumping.

The visiting Nationals willl send up Tim Redding and though he has been getting knocked around in his last two starts he is the top money pitcher for the Nats. He's supported by winning team record home and away. Nats are coming off a shut out in the hands of Bret Meyers which calls for some kind of response from Manny Acta's boys.

NATIONALS +248 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +2.48 units

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

MLB Wednesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 69-53-2 +33.25 units

Still playing the same series and Giants will give the ball to the superior pitcher at home.
Take the Giants.

SFG -112 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.oo unit

Monday, August 18, 2008

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 68-53-2 +32.25 units

It's been a while since my last post.

Tonight's game is Florida Marlins at San Fransisco Giants. Giants finshed their road trip on a high note and it wasn't just Zito in a groove shutting down the Braves, but G-Men taking the Atlanta series 3-1. Before Atlanta was the 4 game loss in Houston which made the previous Dodgers series win seem just lucky but, all in all 5-6 road trip winning 2 out of 3 series and August record stands 9-8 with 4-1 series wins.

Marlins in August are on the flip side at 6-10. The Fish have lost the Colorado series at home 1-2 then went on to the road trip, winning Phillies series 2-1, losing Mets series 1-2, returned home losing Cards series 1-3 and Chicago series 1-2.

SF Giants are a dangerous home underdog facing the cooling Marlins. Kevin Corria will take the home mound and as Giants have improved Kevin, 2-6 with 5.12 ERA, is 1-1 with 3.90 ERA since the All Star and 0-1 with 2.84 ERA in August. 3 games started 19 innings of work with 16 hits and 6 ER but the Marlins are well aware of their position starting the first game with their top money pitcher Ricky Norasco. Spot for Giants are coming in game 2 and this situation call for the Under.

FLA/SFG UNDER 8 at -103 for 1 units(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Friday, August 15, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 68-52-2 +35.03

Chicago White Sox getting slaughtered in Oakland in the past is nothing to hang your hat on. I would be concerned with the West Coast travel, but not enough to keep me off the White Sox.
I looked at it when it first came out and had it at -105, but this pick will come in at -114 and basically see this line coming out with Sox a slight favorite. That's enough for me as long as they pull it off at the end. Oakland comes in dropping the Rays series at home and last night in 12 innings.

CWS -114 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.28 units

Thursday, August 14, 2008

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 67-52-2 +34.03 units

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers.
Brett Myers against Hiroki Kuroda two right handed pitchers with losing record and both are at the bottom of money record for their team. Looking at recent form Myers is looking good the last 3 with over 20 innings of work and allowing only 3 runs on 13 hits, all three winners.
Hiroki Kuroda also pretty nice with last two and it was 3 starts ago when he couldn't get into the 4th inning in San Fransisco. Kuroda seems to have a comfort level at home in Los Angeles and definitely was in the zone last outing. Give Dodgers the sweep at home.

DODGERS -113 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Monday, August 11, 2008

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 67-51-2 +35.03 units

Cincinnati Reds are taking some licking as retooling continues. Since trading Junior to Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds are 1-9 with 6 straight losers and counting. Edinson Volquez will carry the hopes of halting the slide against another team looking towards the future Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucks come off a very nice come from behind rally in a make up game against the Mets and they will give the ball to the man they got in return for X-man Nady, Jeff Karstens 2-0 with the Bucks giving up zero runs in 15 innings of work, He's a good pick up for Pittsburgh Pirates.
Even with Reds established pitcher Volquez taking the mound I look for visitors to take another step back as Bucks are showing life and they are back at the friendly confines of PNC.

PIRATES +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 66-51-2 +34.03 units

SF Giants knocked out the new look Dodgers, last 2 games of the series were 9th inning wins, and now head into Houston, out of the cool chill of SF Bay. Jonathan Sanchez 8-8 with 4.64 ERA will take the hill at Minute Maid. Sanchez has provided the second of 1-2 punch behind Tim Lincecum and he is the No#2 money pitcher on Giants rotation with his team 13-10. 7 of those wins come on the road with Jonathan recording 6-4 away, but he has lost that touch he showed in June logging 1 quality start out of last 7 with G-Men going 1-6.

Houston Astros sweep the Reds with a exclamation on the last game. Going for Houston Brandon Backe ,6-11 with 5.35 ERA, he is a bust and Astros are 9-15 when Backe is on the job. Not much to praise his recent form with 2 quality starts out of last 7 with 1-3 and 2-5 team record.

I would not back Backe in most situation, but Sanchez taking this game is a tall order. G-Men winning the Dodgers series is bit misleading as Dodgers beat Dodgers more so than Giants beating the Dodgers. Astros have not lost a game after a double digit win this season. Even with Brandon's bad home start Astros are 6-4 and he comes in on a bounce back spot.

HOUSTON -132 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Friday, August 08, 2008

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 66-50-2 +35.15 units

Anthony Reyes getting another shot in the rotation with Cleveland Indians today and Jays will counter with David Purcey getting a extended look from Gaston. The change of scenery might be good for Reyes he has 2 tune ups at triple A both wins with 2.77 ERA and comes with Major league experience. Purcey is not as bad as suggested by the numbers. He has shown excellent K to BB ratio, 129 Ks to 34 BB at Syracuse with 2.69 ERA. But both pitchers are lacking Major league innings this year to forecast likely depth and quality. I like the Blue Jays based on current state of the team. Toronto are in striking distance of the Yankees in AL East and could be in the mix come September. Cleveland is evaluating players and Toronto will make their home stand count. Indians 20-38 away with lots of holes and they are weak holding to a lead.

TORONTO -112 for 1 unit(L)

Reyes was outstanding.
0-1 -1.12 units

Thursday, August 07, 2008

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 64-50-2 +32.91 units

Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals. Third game of the series with L.A. young gun Clayton Kershaw going against Cardinals top money pitcher Kyle Lohse. Kershaw is a dangerous lefty with a good curve, good command and able to change speeds. Highly regarded kid on a fast track out of the minors. He's blanked 12 innings in last 2 games and growing confidence.
Lohse 7-1 at home 2.92 ERA with 1.05 WHIP and O/U 4-8. Bounced back nicely winning against Phillies after a clunker at Mets. This game comes after a Wednesday night when L.A. got 6 runs on 11 hits stranding 16 and Cards got 9 runs on 17 hits leaving 15 easily crushing the OVER 8.5 and today's total of 8.5 is again getting money flow to the Over 8.5 since the open.
The Over in this match up has set the tone since the first game when Under 8 collapsed in the 8th inning. But I think this Night game turn around day game give Under the advantage given decent arms and this match up is a up grade from last night.

UNDER 8.5 +114 for 1 unit(W)

Similar situation with Florida at Philadelphia. Young pitcher with bright future goes against Ace Cole Hammel. Without putting in the numbers, which is pretty good, this game will be covered by Bill Hohn behind the plate with a huge strike zone O/U 4-12

UNDER 9 +110 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.24 units

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 64-49-2 +33.91 units

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies. Jorge De La Rosa with 5-6 and 7.15 ERA who was on the cusp of being out of the rotation is a feast or famine pitcher. He has shown flashes of dazzle, but is far from quality. He holds a home win road loss record, 4-1 & 1-5, but lacks quality anywhere at 3 out of 14. Rockies have been good at home of late losing only 1 game in their last home stand 6-1. The problem is their bats have cooled since the Reds series and Nats come in hot winners of last 4 including the first game of the series knocking out Rockies Ace Cook. Nats will send John Lannan 6-11 record 3.61 ERA and this guy would have a winning record if he was pitching for a team with support. 15 quality starts out of 21 games and he is a road warrior with 11 quality starts out of 12. Looking for Nats to have pitching and offense in synch to stun the Coors Field crowd.

NATIONALS +151 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Monday, August 04, 2008

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection in a late inning thriller. YTD 64-48-2 +34.91 units

Today the selection is on the late game Atlanta Braves at SF Giants. Two good arms just the way I like it and no the selection does not take the O/U.
The G-Men will send Matt Cain 6-9 3.70 ERA. He is rising with impressive July too bad it doesn't reflect team wins, 5 quality starts out of last 7 games 2.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, matter of fact much of his quality starts have gone as wasted effort. Jair Jurrgens 10-6 3.06 ERA. He has been solid and better away. Giants playing poor at home 20-34 and Atlanta poor on the road 18-35, but Jurrgens has been the money pitcher when compared to Cain.

The play is with the line movement, meaning better price was the early line, opposite of last selection against the movement.

ATLANTA +102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Sunday, August 03, 2008

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 63-48-2 +33.89 units

Yes I did think about Angels on Sunday, but glad that thinking didn't go far.

I'm playing the game at St Louis with visitors Philadelphia Phillies. Going outside my usual pitching angle as the arms match up should go to Todd Wellemeyer and the home team, but that's not what the line says. Opening line with visitors favorite has swung to the other side and there is something wrong with taking the Red Birds. Maybe Brett Myers turned the corner or Wellemeyer on short leash is holding the Cards line or both pitchers not factoring, but in any case Cardinals are reeling.

PHL +102 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.02 units

Saturday, August 02, 2008

MLB Saturday

Wasn't that exciting? 1-0 last selection. YTD 63-47-2 +34.89 units

3 times is a charm and this one comes under the day light with two good arms. Weaver against Mussina.

This one went down the wrong way and I did not bet back in the morning to break this down. I'm going to look ahead and see if I can publish something early.

LAA +137 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Friday, August 01, 2008

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday. YTD +62-47-2 +33.89 units

Staying with Angels at Bronx. Pitching match up is Ervin Santana coming off 2 consecutive losses, but he is tough on the road this season at 8-2 record pitching 8 quality starts out of 13. He looks poised to bounce back after lasting only 5 innings when he is 7 innings strong in all other July starts. Yankees Ponson has only 2 quality starts out of 9 home games, but he has managed 3-0 record with 6-3 team record. Sidney's also 7-2 life time against the Halos and getting the support of Abreau, A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Nady, Pudge and the boys. It all sounds good, but Angels still hot and Ponson is getting hit .337 to right and .304 to left bats. Santana and the Halos will make you believe.

LAA -102 for 1 unit(W)

Angels do it against Mariano Rivera and take the Yankees shut out.
1-0 +1.00 unit