Sunday, July 14, 2013

MLB Sunday

27-24 +5,670

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
Detroit's ace Justin Verlander is taking the ball on this rubber match. Justin and Max Scherzer are the top two winning starters, but the Tigers team record only has rewarded Scherzer (15-3) Verlander at 10-9 is nowhere close to being in the black. Matter of fact he has lost the most money in Tigers rotation. The Rangers will send left handed starter Martin Perez. Martin is pitching well since being recalled from Triple A Round Rock and is poised to keep the Rangers in game. It will not be a easy task at Comerica where the Tigers are 28-19 and rarely drop back to back games at home, only happened 3 times this season, and Verlander in a spot to improve after giving up 12 hits and 5 runs against the White Sox. Justin in his prior game shut down the powerful Toronto line up on the road and I do feel Verlander's form will return here. However is money line differential is pretty substantial with Texas having winning road record, slightly better record in day games, left handed pitching advantage and better bull pen, shutting down games better than 90%. This looks closer than what the line suggest, even with Verlander at home on a rubber match, with good chance of starters not factoring into the results.
This game also looks to fall Under. Texas Under 16-4-1 last 21 games against AL Central. 12-4-1 last 18 games when opponent allows 5 runs or more. 13-5-1 last 19 games against pitcher with WHIP greater than 1.30 Under 19-9-2 last 30 games when opponent scores 2 runs or less. Under 20-7-2 last 29 games against right handed pitching.  Detroit Under 5-2-1 last 8 games against winning teams. Verlander Under 5-2-1 after scoring 2 runs or less,  11-1-1 in Verlanders last 13 games when he starts third game of series and his Sunday starts have gone 20-8-2. Tim Weike behind the plate has Under 19-7 in last 26 games against Texas and Under 8-3-1 in last 12 behind the plate.

TEXAS RANGERS at +161 for 1 unit(L)   

GAME TOTAL UNDER 8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

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