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Saturday, June 28, 2008

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-36-2 +29.88 units

Rockies struggle continue and losses are mounting at 5 straight. Not one of those loss have been less than 1.5 meaning Run Line would of taken it on the chin for 5 straight too. Jimenez got rocked for 15 hits and Rox went on to lose decisively 7-1 at Detroit. Is there anything in their course of demise give this team a small shinning light? Jeff Francis is a shadow of last year's pitcher, 6 quality starts out of 16, did not last 5 innings last start and gave up 2 long balls. Jeff is only averaging 25% wins away so any consideration on bunch of guys from Denver maybe money out the window. Before casting the stone let's look at the Tigers. Detroit 23-17 winning record at home is still minus on money wagered with the price they command. They win against Lefties 14-5, but 29-23 as favorite is still red in the money. OK, I'm looking at value to probability and in general principle it's only a tool that tells me Tigers are not winning enough to cover the juice....Wait, That's a funny statement considering Rockies have bled red across every category I track. Many times in this game reasonable logic is just a self reassurance of what's already a "given" in your mind, Verlander is the biggest money loser in Tigers rotation equal to Jeff with 25% quality starts. Fading the 75% or higher Detroit concensus and look for Rox to steal one in a stunner in Detroit.

COLORADO ROCKIES +167 for 1 unit(L)

Baltimore O's at Washington Nationals
Nats have won 2 in a row and they will hand the ball to John Lannan, 4-8, but pitching quality starts. What a shame it's not showing on his record. It's alright combined with O's Garrett Olson who can use a good outing and he's pretty good keeping the game Under.

BAL/WAS UNDER 8.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

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