MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday going into the weekend. YTD 61-38-2 +38.31 units

St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates. This will feature Kyle Lohse for the red birds pitching a fine season and Zack Duke alternating wins and losses at 50% 9-9 team record. Zack coming off a bad start is likely to bounce back here at home where his quality starts are 6 out of 9 with Bucs edging 5-4. A small edge as that maybe Cards bats have gone quiet and much is expected from Lohse today, but if there's a misleading number it's his road performance to team win ratio.
His quality start is lacking on the road with 3 out of 8, but team has taken 5-3. Such will not be the case today at PNC if Lohse can not carry the load. He does come in with momentum 5-1 June and Cards are tough against division opponents, but let's take the Bucs to show up today.

PITTSBURGH +113 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 yesterday. YTD 60-38-2 +37.31 units

Baltimore O Birds at Rogers Center in Toronto. These two teams may not matter much in what's shaping up to be the race for AL East, but look for a good match up. Today's arms are Jeremy Guthrie looking for a third straight win overall and a second straight defeat of the Blue Jays against Journeyman southpaw John Parrish starting against his former team for the first time. Can't say how Parrish will hold up tonight, but Jays bats sure look live. Jeremy Guthrie pitches quality game, but too many holes on the road for Baltimore to support. Blue Jays are 2008 disappointment, but there are too many talents to slide and fade away. Feeling some boost from Toronto look for Jays to make their stand taking this one in decisive fashion.

TORONTO -111 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Wednesday

1-0 yesterday even with the rain delay. YTD 59-38-2 +36.31 units

Going with my home team Dodgers at the Ravine. Yeah, Braves has L.A.'s number for awhile, but Dodgers have been taking series and Atlanta has been sliding. Will the tide change with Hudson on the mound? I'll say, No, L.A. take this to take the Home Atlanta series and Lowe to get the win.

DODGERS -103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 58-38-2 +34.98 units

Pittsburgh Pirates don't conjure image of high powering offense, but that what they are this season and defense being crap the Bucs have come up big as the premiere Over team of 2008. Current O/U records 53-30-5 averaging 10.5 runs per game. Getting the ball will be Ian Snell returning from D/L without any minor league tune up he'll be on a close watch. On the flip side Brandon Backe very hard to read, but I'd say he'll improve from his last outing maybe record a quality start or close to it. All in all this game on the surface has the look of bats lighting up the scoreboard, but the Bucs protect their home turf better, pitchers pitch better and Backe is UNDER machine. The selection I'm getting to is fading the obvious Over as the number has climbed from 9.5 to 10 and I don't think it'll reach 10 so taking the risk at 9.5 UNDER.

HOU/PIT UNDER 9.5 at +133 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 57-38-2 +33.69 units

What's happening Players? Hope everyone is coming off a winning weekend.
Today the game is New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies. Pedro, not as threatening, will enter a tough division rivalry against always dangerous Phillies. Mets maybe looking to take this series on the road, but 2 out of 3 was very close. Eaton is also good at home with 4 out of 4 quality starts. So what's not to like the home team today? Since the Atlanta series Phillies offensive production is falling from 8 - 7 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 2, leading to today OPS is down .300 and although Pedro may look hittable the right bat advantage goes to the Mets. Pedro stock is down, but value rates much better than Adam Eaton. Look to sneak this one by the streaky Phillies.

METS +129 for 1 unit(W)

Told ya we sneak this by, lol.
1-0 +1.29 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 56-38-2 +32.44 units

Taking Doc Halladay on the road in Anahiem Big A. Struggling Jays are facing Big John Lackey formidable Ace of the Angels. Lackey has been consistently quality in every start, undefeated in June and he is the Ace in every way, but Doc coming off a 9 inning performance is commanding in the West where as Lackey giving up 0 runs may give a little in this spot.

BLUE JAYS +125 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.25 units

MLB Happy 4th of July

1-0 last selection and Happy July 4th to all, even if your not celebrating U.S. Independence day, enjoying the great American pastime. YTD 55-38-2 +30.44 units

Keeping it short and sweet. We like Minny at home, Indians come into the Dome at the wrong time and Cleveland just not ready to go toe to toe right now. If your feeling adventurous take the -1.5 runline as you will have a very good edge to take this in a blowout.

MIN -125 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 54-38-2 +29.04 units

This selection comes after a long winning run at home KCR fumbles in Camden Yards. If you feel the way I do Royals bats are finding the ball again. O's might be formidable at home, but this price seems little too steep. Starters will not factor in outcome as the bats will do the talking today.

KAN +140(W)

1-0 +1.40 units

MLB Wednesday

0-2 last selection. YTD 53-38-2 +27.88 units

Fading Arizona at home playing against the Brewers. I'm not considering much weight on today's starters Seth McClung and Yusmeiro Petit they're pretty much a wash. NL West is full of mediocrity more about teams going cold than hot. That's the theory for today's selection.
Brewers and take the plus money.

BREWERS +116 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.16 units

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-36-2 +29.88 units

Rockies struggle continue and losses are mounting at 5 straight. Not one of those loss have been less than 1.5 meaning Run Line would of taken it on the chin for 5 straight too. Jimenez got rocked for 15 hits and Rox went on to lose decisively 7-1 at Detroit. Is there anything in their course of demise give this team a small shinning light? Jeff Francis is a shadow of last year's pitcher, 6 quality starts out of 16, did not last 5 innings last start and gave up 2 long balls. Jeff is only averaging 25% wins away so any consideration on bunch of guys from Denver maybe money out the window. Before casting the stone let's look at the Tigers. Detroit 23-17 winning record at home is still minus on money wagered with the price they command. They win against Lefties 14-5, but 29-23 as favorite is still red in the money. OK, I'm looking at value to probability and in general principle it's only a tool that tells me Tigers are not winning enough to cover the juice....Wait, That's a funny statement considering Rockies have bled red across every category I track. Many times in this game reasonable logic is just a self reassurance of what's already a "given" in your mind, Verlander is the biggest money loser in Tigers rotation equal to Jeff with 25% quality starts. Fading the 75% or higher Detroit concensus and look for Rox to steal one in a stunner in Detroit.

COLORADO ROCKIES +167 for 1 unit(L)

Baltimore O's at Washington Nationals
Nats have won 2 in a row and they will hand the ball to John Lannan, 4-8, but pitching quality starts. What a shame it's not showing on his record. It's alright combined with O's Garrett Olson who can use a good outing and he's pretty good keeping the game Under.

BAL/WAS UNDER 8.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Friday

Pushed last selection. YTD 53-35-2 +31.02 units

Angels at Dodgers Freeway series are here. First game I'm taking the Angels with Joe Saunders on the mound taking on Chan Ho Park and the Dodgers at the Ravine. Chan Ho has shown flashes of dazzling pitches I'm not sold on that and Dodgers are not clicking right now. It's the home field disadvantage when road tested Angels give the ball to Saunders and we should take the first game away.

ANGELS -114 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.14 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-35-1 +31.02 units

All games have started except for this one.
Texas at Houston in battle of Texas. I know the score is supposed to be low or below 9. That's on the high side Wandy's at home and Milwood is pitching good, but keep in mind the shortest left field next to Fenway and low fence to the right, designed for HR robbing catches in mind, not to forget the hill in center field with a pole in play. Definitely made for outfielders to work.
Let's tag this one Over the number it'll be unexpected.

TEX/HOU OVER 9 at +110 for 1 unit(Push)

MLB Wednesday

0-2 yesterday both late inning collapse, but D Backs stuck it to me blowing 4 runs in bottom of 8th. Everybody gets moosed sometime.
YTD 53-34-1 +32.14 units

Like Rox playing in Kansas City. Them Royals are ripping the inter league, but got to consider the two arms on the mound. Aaron Cook is the force behind Rockies today and he is a force to be reckoned with 9-4 and Rox are 11-5 when he goes to work. Cook has been by far the biggest Rockies money maker and 11 quality starts out of 16, 6 out of 9 road. Rox are 6-3.
Royals are hot no doubt and they are feasting on NL teams 11-3 winning 9-1 last 10 games, but Luke Hochevar is the weak link he is the one loss out of last 10 and limited quality starts, but has improved recently with 2 quality starts back to back before going 4 innings. The way I measure KC made some mini run, this one best by far, but they are over achieving at this point and they are still under .500 at home. Rockies may not be any better, but June has been productive taking LA series, Milwaukee series, Giants series, White Sox series and Indians series before blowing Mets series. Now they are going to drop KC series I'm taking Rox to salvage one game.

ROCKIES -112 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.12 units

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 53-32-1 +34.14 units

Selection #1
When I look at NL East standing and see Phillies at top all I could recall in recent games was the 20 runs scored against poor Cards at St Louis on 6/13. How the tide turns, since than the offensive powerhouse Phillies have gone 1-7. Where the offensive power? I'm not going to ponder that question, but I do know Jamie Moyer has been pitching in mid season form, 5 quality out of 7 road starts 4-1 record with Phillies going 6-1, and he is no stranger to AL West. Oakland will counter with Joe Blanton the moneyline pit, 3-10 and A's are 4-12 when Joe in on the hill, taking the ball. He's got 5 quality start out of 10 home games and win less in June, but that last start in Zona was a rarity. He'll most likely bounce back at home and eat up innings as he always have with 2 N/D out of all starts and 10 games with 2 runs or less 6 games are 1 run. What I don't like with Joe is that he has allowed HR's in 7 consecutive games and just an improvement over his last start may not do the trick.

PHILADELPHIA +103(L)

Selection #2
Playing Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox. Snakes slither under a rock and oh how they have come down to earth. Everyone said they can't stay hot so now there's "I told you" guys all over the place. Back under the radar and stock is looking mighty fat, but "it's Boston at home" you say. They beat them yesterday in the battle of pitchers duel and the Snakes rather do it again with their arm than with their bats. Doug Davis is returning to form and last two starts were pretty good sign. He's had his clunkers on the road, but he's lacked innings under his belt. This will be interesting with Masterson having quality starts and on the money at home, but since he last pitched in Philadelphia 6/18 last day of the road trip Red Sox have dropped 3 out of 4 back in Fenway. Strike out count has been high since coming home, but so are the hits given up and now we come full circle back to Masterson. Red Sox highly expected to stop the skid today, but not if Davis and company can help it.

DIAMONDBACKS +166(L)
With the win within grasp.... WTF
0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 52-32-1 +33.14 units

Backing Big Ben on the road against one of the best home team Atlanta Braves. They've been carrying that label for awhile now, 27-12, but look beyond their recent road trip and you'll see that Phillies swept them before their trip with losing streak running through Chicago series for 6 consecutive losses. Jo Jo stopped the skid and the Braves went 4-3 the rest of the way before taking the Seattle series back at home. On this sampling losing streak started at home and ended on the road. What am I getting at? Maybe the home advantage road disadvantage is over blown here with Jo-Jo Reyes back at Turner. He's only 16.7% quality starts at home, although Braves have 4-2 record when he starts and he has thrown 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts, his recorded home win is way back in 5/18. Visiting Brew crew winning 7 out of last 10 has a head of steam with Ben Sheets perfect on the road and team record of 7-2, but again this team is labeled as losers on the road. Let's buck the over announced trend and go will Brewers at Turner.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -114 for 1 unit(W)

SOP *standard operating procedure.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

2-1 last selection. YTD 52-31-1 +34.19 units

Going with a Over looking game that maybe too high to reach. The game is Baltimore at Milwaukee Brewers. I do not doubt the strength of Brewers home game and Garret Olson may not be what you consider a quality pitcher, but I have to think the upside of Olson is greater in this game. Manny Parra is pitching a great game of late and has shined at home. Also combined with O's away O/U 17-22 and Brews 15-21-1 home Unders. Brew crew hitting the weak side .249 at home dropping to .229 against lefties. We should also get a good strike zone with Edward Montague calling strikes and balls. The risk is late inning scoring with both pens being a liability. Even so the ceiling is high today.

BAL/MIL UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Getting too fine, but if I had to do it over I'd go Under. The problem today was playing the wrong selection.

0-1 -1.05 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 50-30-1 +33.19 units

Pirates may have squeezed one past the sinking Blue Jays with Cito back on the helm, but don't be sold on Pirates yet. So they are formidable at home 22-15 with pretty good offensive numbers. Paul Maholm definitely better at home has a record of 3-1 and team record of 6-2. You'll also see Bucks have won 4 of his last 5 starts, have I sold you on Pittsburgh yet?
Blue Jays have been laying eggs on the road to the tune of 17-23. These inter league games have yielded 1 win out of last 7, and that win was way back in 6/13. It's also the second goose egg in 4 days away from Roger Center. So what do you think?
Backing Jesse Litsch even with his 2 losses out of 3, all three were team losses, as this game looks due for the Jays? I think they'll score some runs and Bucks will score some runs sending this match up Over the Total of 8 at PNC, that's the play.

TOR/PIT OVER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Joe Saunders and the Halos to stick another to Bret Myers and the Phillies. Just rolling with the AL West powerhouse road warriors playing in their element. Not only that betting plus money.

Angels +110 for 1 unit(W)

Pedros looking interesting as a underdog. Colorado at home with Jimenez does not threaten. Taking Mets at Coors.

Mets +103 for 1 unit(L)

Not bad, but I guess I pushed with 3 selections. Besides Mets with Pedro was very un-clutch like play.
2-1 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection fading the sliding Cards at home. YTD 49-30-1 +32.19 units

Nailing another yesterday our game is running 4-1 last 5, 8-2 last 10. It's all good and weekend will be upon us to sink your teeth into some base running, fists pumping, knee buckling great game of ours.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim playing the inter league at Philadelphia Phillies. Ervin Santana with a fantastic 8-3 record, but Angels have failed him losing 3 of his N/D games making the team record 8-6 when he takes the hill. He is also showing little cracks with his last outing not getting past the 6th inning. Opposing Adam Eaton has been quality with not much to show for. His 2-4 record is misleading considering his ability to stay consistent and pitch deep. Phillies are 7-7 when he takes the mound and that number tells me he is better than his record, but team is not supporting. Which brings me to taking the Under at this so called "hitter friendly" Citizens Bank park with Eaton being a Under machine, 12-1 Under 6-0 at home. Santana is poised to improve and give a quality performance, but with the cracks showing taking the Angels may not produce the end result. I do like the Total to fall below and Angels don't hit well after a day of rest.

LAA/PHL UNDER 9.5 at -115 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection, Dodgers stopping their skid. YTD 48-30-1 +31.19 units

Late posting alert.
Bring you a inter league action today with KC at St Louis. Off the top, KC rolling through Inter league at 6-2. They are looking to sweep the Cards on this afternoon match up. Zack Greinke is pitching much better, he's 10 quality out of 14 starts, 5 out of 5 quality at home & 5 out 9 on the road. The team has dropped his last 3, Zack taking the loss on 2 of them, but still had the poise of high level pitcher when I saw his last game. Brad Thompson I saw in Houston and don't have a big impression from him except for the fact he came in against the slumping Astros team and recorded N/D. He is a ground ball pitcher, which I like, but getting depth might be a issue.
Yes, it really tough to sweep away in the Majors, but it does happen and Cards are riddled with missing players.

KCR -106 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah baby!
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 47-30-1 +30.12 units

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds.
Tonight's match up will feature two good young arms, Chad Billingsly and Johnny Cueto, both right handed pitchers making themselves known. Johnny Cueto with 79 innings under his belt has 50% quality starts, 62.5 at home and 3 wins out of last 4 starts. There is a pitch count issue along with long balls he's given up in last 3 starts.
Chad has thrown 77 innings, 40% quality starts, little better on the road at 50%, but not all is his doing with lacking run support. Dodgers are sliding and they're 13-23 away, 3-7 in last 10 games where as Reds are golden at home 21-14. So my thoughts on this game? Dodgers even with their consecutive losses and bad road record have the better product on the filed and Reds being offense oriented team which has cooled off has too many holes in their defense. Reds does hold the big bat advantage, but that's a risk I will have to take.

DODGERS +107 for 1 unit(W)

Didn't lose a beat.
1-0 +1.07 units

MLB Wednesday

1-0 last night. YTD 46-30-1 +29.12 units

Sitting in a hotel room here in Houston looking forward to Wednesday matinee at Minute Maid park. Stinking hot and humid not too pleasant June in Texas some rain would be nice. At least I'm not here on my dollar and I will make a best of this trip.

Off the top, I think Brew crew takes the series away, Sheets coming off a mile high win will have his curve back in his arsenal. Brian Moehler pitched his best game this season and he may revert to a 5 inning pitcher. Brew Crew rising and Astros slipping.

MIL -128 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-1 last selection. YTD 45-30-1 +28.12

It has been 10 days since my last confession. There's nothing wrong with my game. I've had my share of losses, but winners out number them. I do this religiously and have been doing it for long long time, but I must admit I'm no writer. I'm considering going to video and maybe I could have real time conversation with some you guys out there. Just thinking out loud, but something I would really like to do.

Los Angeles Dodgers are in San Diego playing game 2 of the series winning the 1st and snapping the Padres 5 game win streak. That win streak is decieving with 4 of those games being a 2-1 low scoring 1 run win. That's not comforting, while Randy Wolfe's coming off a good game against the Mets, he has been pitching quality at home. The other side, Billingsly's coming off a shaky start and he is likely to improve. I'd say from the way this is shaping up in this cavernous PetCo park the game stays Under the Total. Dodgers on the road is less threatening and Padres have offensive issues. Books opened with U7 bias with late Over pressure bring the price back close to even. I'll take the call on Books being correct.

LAD/PAD UNDER 7 at 110 for 1 unit(W)

Another day at the office.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 44-29-1 +28.12 units

If you waited around for Sunday games I apologize there was no insight on my part to publish anything in time.

Let's move on to Monday. Dodgers having played a dismal road trip now returns to Los Angeles. You know that New York to Los Angeles flight must of felt long after dropping the 2 run lead and end up losing 2-3 on Saturday and getting spanked on Sunday late card finishing the trip 1-6.
Derek Lowe will take the mound to right the ship and he has been pitching well, much better than his Rockies opponent Greg Reynolds 0-2, but I suspect a lack of Dodgers punch to keep Rox in striking range. Looking for good ground ball numbers from Lowe he is pitching 1.09 WHIP at home. Reynolds 7.94 ERA away and last 3 starts 5.09 ERA is crap, but he imploded in his last start 5/28 @PHL giving up 6 runs and likely to improve facing time lagged Dodgers.

ROCKIES/DODGERS UNDER 8 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

New York Mets complete a very nice home stand and now they are in the West taking on the fighting SF Giants. Jonathan Sanchez getting the start has been tough as of late stringing 3 quality starts not to forget Giants have winning record of 8-3 with Sanchez starting. But I don't like his high pitch count, Mets hitting lefties better and he's a fly ball pitcher with wind picking up at the Bay. Oliver Perez starting for NY simply goes Over, Giants also hitting lefties better.

METS/GIANTS OVER 8.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
FYI : This Total has moved to 8U -106

1-1 +0.00 units

MLB Saturday

2-0 yesterday bring the YTD 43-29-1 +26.99 units.

Weekend baseball under the sun.
Michael Pelfrey 2-6 has a bad rep stringing two sub-par starts. He lasted 4 innings in both games throwing tons of pitches. But you know "what happened" doesn't always lead to "What will happen" and I don't think he'll factor into this game maybe get to the 6th or better. Total collapse at his point without some kind of health problem is not probable. He's had bad games, but he's also bounced back and his last quality start was a wasted effort, 5/15 against Washington at home, not to mention that was the second consecutive home quality start, 5/10 Cincy, making Michael's start combined with Mets home edge a interesting matinee wager.
The other side of the coin is surging Chad Billingsly and the Dodgers who snapped their 4 game losing streak with Russel Martin coming alive. Dodgers current road trip 1-4 include the St Louis series before the trip 2-6, Mets are better since coming home.

NEW YORK METS +113 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.13 units

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 41-29-1 +24.69 units

Coming to end of May there have been enough games to sort through statistical numbers. Maybe too many numbers to make meaningful information distorted. It's always good to keep the numbers as comparable to current data. Season average vs recent average of 3 to 5 games as a indication of rise or decline and keep it simple.

Give credit to Tampa Bay their winning ways at home. They're 21-10 at home with 5-2 playing 7 games at home, 5/23 to5/29, the standout number of 69 hits catches my attention.
Even with such lofty number there is a pattern of fluctuation and recent home stand facing Baltimore and Texas Runs increased from 2 to 11 declined to 5 and it's been sliding slow from there. I think it's a sign of cooling runs. White Sox will send the big Cuban and Rays will send their work horse Shields. It looks Under to me.
WHITE SOX/RAYS UNDER 8 at -120 for 1 unit(W)

Toronto is a team heating up in their course of Western road trip and Angels with Weaver on the mound would seem better than McGowan and the Jays. But tonight Angels coming off a rest I expect things to get going a bit slower. This is no time to blink with Jays getting hot.

TORONTO +130 for 1 unit(W)

Domo Arigato
2-0 +2.30 units

MLB Thursday

Coming off a 2-0 with a very nice take home. YTD 41-28-1 +25.79 units

Doc was sitting down A's and Rich was just as good in last night's pitching duel. We are set for another round under the day light Jesse Litsch shut down the Royals in his last outing and he is excelling at 6-1. I like Oakland pitcher today too, Eveland 0.94 ERA at home, making this game a day time UNDER

UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.10 units

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 39-28-1 +20.21 units

Playing the late game on Thursday night at the Anaheim Stadium, the Big A is a beautiful park just ways from Disneyland. Joe Saunders and the Angels will be hosting the struggling Detroit Tigers. Pitching for Detroit will be a tough Venezuelan righty, Armando Galarraga 3-2 3.70 ERA, tougher on the road and right hand bats are getting nothing at .132 even with couple of bad May outing the trouble will not be the pitching tonight. This proud team is not going to lay down and get swept. Here is the combination big play selection.

TIGERS +129 for 2 units(W)
ANGELS/TIGERS UNDER 9 at -104 for 3 units(W)

2-0 +5.58 units

MLB Tuesday

1-0 yesterday. YTD 39-27-1 +21.21 units

Went to the mountains over this past weekend getting back just in time to put up the White Sox winner and I think I'll take them again. Mark Buehrle might seem tough to read with 2-5, team record 4-6, and couple of bad outings in May, but he is quality pitcher 60% when he takes the mound. Aaron Laffey has been impressive in May stringing 4 quality starts pitching into the 7th inning in all of those starts allowing 2 earned runs in 28 innings.
The 2 runs came against Chicago in 1-3 loss and this will be the second time around. Not a Cleveland hater just following White Sox dominance with Indians sliding offense.

WHITE SOX +134 for 1 unit(L)

Lost with Chicago, but will ride them again tomorrow and see you guys Thursday.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Memorial Day

1-0 last selection. YTD 38-27-1 +20.21 units

Javier Vasquez taking the mound against Paul Byrd and the Indians. Vasquez is the Man for the South Siders and there should have full confidence with his presence. Byrd pitching on and off, but even if he's on his game White Sox still have the edge.

WHITE SOX +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 units

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday with last 7 going 5-1-1 good week in any cappers book.
YTD 37-27-1 +19.15 units

We are having some strange weather in the Los Angeles area. There was a tornado in Inland Empire and the day has gone from hot to cold. Will it have some impact on tonight's game at Chavez? I don't think the balls will have much lift and should help Lowe. Derek Lowe does not much to show this May, but he is at his best at home and veteran Right Hander is capable of bouncing back. On the other side Adam Wainwright has been fantastic at home, but out of his element on the road. He is coming off 2 consecutive sub par outing and his M.O. has been one run games. I view tonight as a bounce back game for both pitchers.

STL/LAD UNDER 8 at +106 for 1 unit(W)

Told ya, low scoring 1 run game.
1-0 +1.06 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 36-27-1 +18.15 units.

Good afternoon Baseball handicappers.
Angels are in Toronto with two good arms, Santana vs Burnett, and that's what I'm going to expect, good pitching. Ervin Santana, 6-1 with 2.97 ERA, with his road troubles from last season in his rear view Angels are winning behind Santana and O/U stands at 1-6. Burnett wins and losses maybe 50%, but he has been a work horse.

UNDER 8 at +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Wedensday

Selection record year to date: 35-27-1 +17.15 units

Working the daily grind today I'll take another day game at the bay. Tampa at Oakland is a good match up of the under paid. Backing Oakland at home with Eveland to stop the Rays.

OAKLAND -109 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

I took Oakland off last nigh because the publishing's came after game start. It happens and if A's didn't score in the 1st inning I might of let it go, but no play. FYI the final was a Tampa win.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
John Maine vs Tom Glavine
John is in mid season form. In May he has been lights out 3-0 with 1.77 ERA and lefties can not touch him. If your searching for pitfalls he gives a bit on the road and under day light. Braves can be troublesome 9-5 during the day and when that happens at home 7-0. They're also a bit tough at home in general 16-5, matter of fact it's the best in NL. Chipper is on fire hitting 34 out of 40 games leading the majors in hitting average and Glavine takes the ball.
You know what I'll take Atlanta.

BRAVES +121 for 1 units(W)

1-0 +1.21 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection as Rays could not hold the lead. YTD 35-27-1 +17.15 units.

Oakland A's at home with Blanton defending their field against Tampa Bay Rays and their big gun Shields. We will welcome the surging Rays as they cross the time zones. Joe may not have the wins, but don't let the number fool you he has been quality and his team mates know it. Shields bit weaker on the road. Go with the home team.


**OAKLAND +103 for 1 unit**

Sorry this play did not make it out on time.

MLB Sunday

1-0 on my big selection. YTD 35-26-1 +18.21 units.

It's Sunday Baseball. You know I been watching these like a hawk since the lines opened, but hadn't pulled the trigger. Day game today with Rays at Cards and this one is coming up fast.
Backing Rays with Jackson on the mound and fading Lohse. Got plenty more to hang this game on just not enough time. You guys study the card and see what I see, but that's all I have to say for now.

RAYS -106 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.06 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 34-26-1 +15.21 units

The battle of Ohio takes place at the Great American Ballpark. Name alone tells you this field is about the game not the commercialism. Replacing the old Riverfront Stadium this place is recognized as a hitter friendly park. Just two nights ago against the Marlins game UNDER was jelling fast when 6 runs were given up at the top of 9th sailing OVER the Total. Matter of fact Reds racked up 20 runs in that 3 game series and gave up 16. How about last night with 5 HRs, but for all the highlight homers and big run games that's so memorable in this park truth to the myth is the home record stands UNDER at O/U 7-11. Which sets up the Cleveland series with Indians top in defense, 3rd in AL Total UNDER. Indians will send Fausto Carmona 4-1 with 2.40 ERA. He is coming off a shutout of Blue Jays and has 5 quality starts out of 8. He does give a bit more on the road, but May has brought 2 straight wins making it 4 wins out of last 5 Indians have finished with a win. Aaron Harrang 2-5 with 3.32 ERA tough luck pitcher with 7 quality starts out of 9. He eats innings and holds very good home WHIP of 1.029. Totals reflect his outing with little support O/U 2-7, at home O/U 1-4. With two good pitchers matching up we will have a generous strike zone with Tom Hallion behind the plate O/U 3-7. This match up comes on Indians Away O/U 5-11 and Reds Home O/U 7-11-2. This will be the first 3 units wager for this season.

UNDER 8.5 at -106 for 3 units(W)

This one is in the bank.
1-0 +3.00 units

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 33-26-1 +13.21 units

No post for yesterday. Games are getting choppy, but I like the chaos feel to the match ups and mix in some inter-league for some sure fire bangs. Baseball logic says games between unfamiliar teams should have pitching advantage and games played on NL field will eliminate the DH.


Atlanta Braves are sending Jair Jurrjens, RHP 4-3 with 3.10 ERA, pitching much better of late last 5 out of 6 has been quality and he is 3-0 at home 1.96 ERA 1.20 WHIP. That WHIP has fallen to 0.89 in last 3 games and Under is strong at O/U 1-7 stringing 7 in a row.
Oakland Athletics counter with Dana Eveland, LHP 3-3 with 3.23 ERA, on the road 1-3 with 4.88 ERA 1.25 WHIP, who looks weaker on paper, but has given A's 5-3 team record with 50% quality starts coming in with 2 quality starts in a row. Under is perfect at O/U 0-7.
Both Pitchers will be working with weaker side of the bat. Atlanta hitting .256 against LHP last 10 vs Oakland hitting .220 against RHP last 10.
Both teams trending UNDER Atlanta O/U 1-8-1 and Oakland O/U 2-7-1.

UNDER 8.5 at -112 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

MLB Wednesday

1-1 last selection. YTD 33-25-1 +14.21 units

No play Tuesday and back with the skinny on Wednesday. If your not up to date with best bet in Baseball it's the Florida Marlins. They're at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati Ohio taking on Bronson Arroyo and the Reds. Outside of Volquez pitching phenomenal ball at home, he pitched yesterday beating Hendrickson, Reds are not considered big threat and Arroyo at home is not scary at all. Ricky Nolasco getting the ball in a nice underdog spot poised to beat the Reds on the road.

FLA +122 for 1 unit(L)

Had the mark of a great come back, but it was not to be.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection. YTD 32-24-1 +13.81 units.

Looking at PPD games from Sunday. Toronto at Cleveland is a Double Header today with early game slated for AJ Burnett for the Blue Jays and Carmona for the Indians. Burnett is 3-3 with 5.19 ERA 1.62 WHIP when he takes the start Toronto is 4-4, but better away than at home with 2-1 with 3.04 ERA 1.28 WHIP. Fausto Carmona is 3-1 with 2.95 ERA 1.79 WHIP at home he is 2-1 with 2.28 ERA 1.61 WHIP. Cleveland exploded for 12 runs on Saturday while giving up 0 and Friday 6 runs while giving 1 against the Blue Jays. So Jays have been out scored 18-1 in this series so far including a knockout of Toronto Ace Halladay. Is there any reason to go against the Indians on this game? Yes, Carmona is having control issues, outside Detroit outing 4/17 he's walked minimum 4, and not factoring into decision. AJ does not have good history with Cleveland, but I think he comes in pretty strong after that 14K outing.

TORONTO +134 for 1 unit(L)

Taking Minnesota at home with Livan Hernandez taking the mound. These pesky Twins are not so easy to put away even for Boston Red Sox.

TWINS +140 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.40 units

MLB Mother's Day

HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY TO ALL YOU BEAUTIFUL MOTHERS.
1-0 last selection. YTD 31-23-1 +12.52 units.
Hope to bring you the Mother Load tonight.

Already won Rays, Rays&Angels Over 9.5, A's&Rangers Over 8 and will conclude my evening on this play.
Boston Red Sox (Wake) at Minnesota Twins (Black)
Backing the Under in this match up. Both pitchers come in trending Under and match up dictates Under. Top it off with Under ump behind the plate. Twins also play Red Sox pretty tight and close moneyline credits Twins at Home.

BOS/MIN UNDER 9 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
TWINS +118 for 2 units(W)

The day was much than published.
1-1 +1.29 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection and rolling the last several days. YTD 30-23-1 +11.52 units

Baltimore O at Kansas City Royals. O Birds getting a little better in KC as they have been doing to the Royals for awhile. It's tough to sweep especially on the road and Tomko showing flashes of big league stuff, but it's the Royals regressing when they need to tough up. That's what I think will happen and Orioles take this going away.

BALTIMORE +100 for 1 unit(W)

Not exactly a sweep yet there's another game for Mother's day.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 29-23-1 +10.38 units

Some would say runs produced by SF Giants is mostly by luck and G-Men themselves are their own worst enemy. They return to the Bay going 1-5 on this dismal road trip only to face NL East powerhouse Phillies practically waiting in the West. Phillies have split AZ series and won SFG series before that at home now Cole Hamels gets the ball. Giants will counter with Patric Misch, LHP with limited big league play. He does come with Lefty specialist credentials, but how far will he go and how much does the Giants have left after that road trip? I'd say not many would be surprised if Giants gets shut down or if Misch gets chased, but this is second look of Cole @PHL 5/04 and Patric @PHL 5/02, both won by Phillies both Over. For this game Phillies are a very expensive Road favorites and 1 run losses have become G-Men signature making the Phils Runline unattractive. What does look intriguing is the low Total 7.5 hung on this game and strange things have happened when the wind is blowing. I'm still watching this, but anticipated Under looks premature. Gust is picking up toward center and left field swirling in the outfield.

PHL/SFG OVER 7.5 at +114 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.14 units

MLB Thursday

2-0 last selection. YTD 28-23-1 +8.38 units

Baltimore O (Daniel Cabrera) at Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar)
O Birds coming limping into KC losers 5 out of last 5 where the Royals beat the AL West contender Angels in last game 9-4 salvaging 1 out of 3 series which was encouraging given they had taken the Cleveland series on the road with one game PPD, but let's face it this game is not going to get much interest. Gauging wagering public's interest it gets around 1279 compared to PHL/ARZ getting 1664. Does it mean anything? It means the game flys under the radar and line movement is limited staying close to odds makers projected divide. Players are not trusting Baltimore on the road even with edge on head to head match ups and Luke Hochevar is bit of an unknown rookie reliever inserted into the rotation top it off there is 30% chance of thunder storm. All good reasons to move on to other games, but if the game plays out Hockevar has given KC more than what they asked for stringing two quality wins and if he regresses the pen is stocked. Daniel Cabrera coming off a loss and ND before that, but still pitching strong with 5 straight quality start. These two teams both come in O/U 3-7 and that Under stands to improve.

BAL/KCR UNDER 8.5 at -113 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 26-23-1 +6.20 units

I like more games than what I'd like to play. It's a all day Baseball making hard to lay off, but the way to go is do the home work early make the plays and go about your other business, if you have other business, forget about the games or too many games. I'm going to cut out early and go to the Dodgers game.

The game in Los Angeles is a pretty good match up. Penny looks to sweep NYM and by-the-book says to play the no sweep with visiting Mets. Too bad Dodgers haven't been following the script. They haven't won 9 out of last 10 by losing when they were supposed to they've done just the opposite and I wouldn't go against them. I will ride the bats today and though it's a cool day with clouds, not much wind, kind of day when pitchers thrive, Penny is taking the mound and Dodgers always bring their bat when Big Bad Brad gets the ball.

Dodgers failed to bring their bats, but no matter.
METS/DODGERS OVER 8.5 +115 for 1 unit(W)

Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees is a match up of stingy arms in American League plain and simple. This Total is low as it can go in AL in May, but worth the risk with these two pitchers taking the mound.

INDIANS/YANKEES UNDER 8 +103 for 1 unit(W)

Thanks I needed that.
2-0 +2.18 units

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 26-22-1 +7.20 units

Phillies (Adam Eaton) at Arizona (Randy Johnson).

Big Unit is no longer all that though still a pitcher who knows the game and give you innings. If he wasn't starting for the hot Diamondbacks I don't think he'd command this price. Even with the hot club behind him Phillies have come to swing their bats and they hold value with Eaton doing his job.

Take Phillies +140 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection. YTD 26-20-1 +10.20 units. Missed Sunday's games.

Texas Rangers are playing pretty good ball of late and they will be in Seattle matching up their veteran Ace Kevin Milwood against veteran Washburn. I backed Washburn on the road and he burned me not going that route again. Jarrod is still a fade, he has thrown too many pitches. Rangers taking 4 out of last 5 starting 4/30 witH KC at home taking that series and taking the Oakland series after that in Oakland. Milwood comes in working 44.1 innings 2-2 record with 3.85 ERA didn't look that hot in 4/30 KC win giving up 5 runs on 7 hits, no decision before that for 4/25, 4/20 and 4/15. Opposition scoring ran high with Over hitting 4 in a row. Still that Over is no play tonight Kevin Milwood giving up 5 earned runs two straight start is not the norm and if you recall the early season match up Milwood gave Seattle no earned runs eating up 6 innings on 91 pitches with 4 hits and 2 unearned runs losing that one to Erik Bedard. Tonight the opposition is Washburn 1-4 record 4.86 ERA with 33.1 innings last outing at Cleveland chased in 4.1 innings averaged 23.5 pitches per inning finishing with 102 pitches thrown. He or Mariers has not won since 4/09 @Tampa and maybe due for a quality outing at home, but rather go with the momentum team and fade the loser of 5 in a row, with 4 losing by more than 1.5 runs.

TEXAS RANGERS +116 for 2 units(L)

if this bet is available to you.
TEXAS RANGERS ALTERNATE RUNLINE -1.5 at +181 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -3.00 units

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 25-19 +9.20 units

Got a two in one selection today. Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels. Angels did not go away quietly yesterday as they were threatening with baserunners at the bottom of 9th, but could not cash. Baltimore is a surprise out of the East and if they can transform their winning ways on the road they'll be giving some big payroll teams run for their money. This match up, though Angels seem to have the upper hand on paper, Angels will have to fight hard to keep this even. For some strange reason Angels have out performed themselves on the road and balancing 50% at home. So we have two teams under performing in this situation with pretty good pitching, that's a Under for me. The Side is Baltimore with Cabrera, his stuff is looking electric and I like Garland too, but 2008 model Daniel Cabrera is what I will take.

BALTIMORE +120 for 1 unit(L)
BAL/ANA UNDER 9.5 at +104 for 2 units(W)

Missed the starter, but main course was right on.
1-1 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 25-18-1 +10.50 units

Tampa at Boston.
A.J. Burnett shuts down the Red Sox 3 hits no runs into the 8th inning and take the game 3-0 at Fenway. 2 previous games were tight, but Sox were winners so the pressure is not apparent to the fact offense has produced only 4 runs in last 45 innins starting 4/26 @TB. Still winners 8 of last 11 home games you have to feel this shutout leads to production against TB in this turn around revenge game at Fenway against Jackson. Edwin Jackson was good in 4/26 match up going 7 innings 5 hits 1 run throwing 108 pitches 62 for strikes, but Clay Buchholtz was better going 8 innings 3 hits only a mistake thrown to Aki was 2 run HR ending in a loss. Since that match Boston offense have been quiet while Rays continued to roll. So is Tampa money with Jackson for the second round? At Fenway? I can't go against Red Sox comng off zero scoring, but I will back runline +1.5 and look for Jackson & TB boys to keep it tight. Jackson 4 out of 5 match up against Boston are 1 run games.

TAMPA Runline +1,5 -120 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.20 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 24-18-1 +9.43 units

It's early Thursday games have started. Backing Tigers on the road against Yanks at home. Yankees will pitch Kennedy and Tigers will counter with Robertson. May not be much of a pitching match up on paper, but you know Detroit will put the better product on the field.

TIGERS +106(W)

1-0 +1.06 units

MLB Wednesday

1-1 yesterday. YTD 24-17 +10.43 units

The twists and turns of baseball. Year after year you reshuffle the players, add some new ones, take out some old ones and just like that a whole new ball game. The big picture so far is that home dogs are winning at a nice 55.26% making away favorites a general filter might be good if your game is treading water. Under makes just over 53% so watch out for easy looking Over games.
If you are a dog player you should be doing OK, favorites are not making the grade at 51.3%, but this should correct as season progresses. I think there's quite a bit of Basketball to Football Cappers or Hockey to Football cappers killing time in Baseball, but when Football season rolls around Baseball will be left to Baseball cappers and by that time games will have plenty of stats to make the bets sharp as a razor blade.
Here is another piece of the puzzle. These are top 10 wagered teams.
1. Mets
2. Angels
3. Yankees
4. Detroit
5. Atlanta
-----------
6. Arizona
7. Boston
8. St. Louis
9. San Diego
10. Cubs

These are top 10 money teams
1. Arizona
2. Oakland
3. Florida
4. Baltimore
5. Milwaukee
-------------
6. St Louis
7. Boston
8. Cubs
9. White Sox
10. Tampa

#2~#5 money winners are flying under the radar not making the top 10 favorite teams to put your money on while Tampa sneaks in top 10 money team. Yanks and Detroit come in #22 & #26 at the bottom of money while San Diego makes dead last at #30 money. Oh yes, everyone's favorite Mets are barely on the plus side at #12 money.

Play is on Seattle Mariners. They will hand the ball to veteran Jarrod Washburn who has performed well over the years in Cleveland. It's true Washburn has been a losing pitcher since coming to Seattle, but this guy gives you innings. He's won 10 lost 15 last season, but who's to say pitcher always wins alone. You need to score and you can't win no matter how good the pitching unless you put 1 run more than the other team. Cliff Lee has been outstanding, maybe too good and I will test him here as a big home favorite. Indian bats are cooled right now while Mariners knocking .359 against LHP in last 10.

MARINERS +168 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0-1 last selection. YTD 23-16-1 +9.43 units.

Full day of Baseball, NBA & NHL all have games today so if you have time on your hands it could get out of control capping too many games. Keep your focus on the games you have your eyes on and don't get distracted by playing games that all of sudden start looking good because you read something, heard something and you start getting swayed when nothing fundamental about the game has changed. Most likely you've looked at it already and passed on it 2 days ago.
Yesterday was a good example in NBA with Denver +4.5 doing a reverse line movement to +4 with everybody on Lakers. Good thing I didn't touch it with posted Total Over losing big time ( I reversed it UNDER 2nd half 111.5, but didn't have time to publish it. ) I passed on it days ago and then hear a joker on the radio talking about how he went to Vegas put money on Lakers -4.5 and these guys were "Wowed" like "what a easy bet". That's when a light bulb lit, "Public squares are all over Lakers" I get back to the computer and see Lakers at -4 and knew Players were on Denver. I almost bit, but remember I looked at that already and thought about Denver +4.5, why should I chase it at +4? There's too much issues with Nuggets and if they were going to bring their game it should of been the run and gun, but it didn't work out and Nuggets are out.

Getting back to MLB tonight.
Backing Reds at St Louis and giving young Johnny Cueto a shot against Joel Pinero. Joel is on the improve and looked good in win against the Bucks, but his opponents have lacked the punch of surging Reds scoring 24 runs and winning three in a row.

REDS +101 for 1 unit(L)
Johnny got his ass kicked today.

Not done yet. Playing Oakland at Angels after winning with Oakland yesterday I switch over to Angels and Joe a.k.a. "Sandman" who is on top of Angels money pitcher. Look for Saunders to put the A's bats to sleep in tonight's low scoring game.

ANGELS - 134 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +1.00 units

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection with better than a unit profit. YTD 22-16 +8.23 units.

Welcome to my wagering blog where my circle of handicappers and I publish our daily picks. There's no sales here, but always interested in like-minded friends.

Today the take is on Daniel Cabrera and the Baltimore O's visiting the South side of Chicago.
Cabrera since walking 5 at the start of April he has gained control dropping his walk number in 4 consecutive games with none in last game against Seattle going 8 innings punching out 5 with 2 runs on 5 hits. He's still on short leash with many, but if he throws strikes like he has been Daniel is tough. White Sox will go with Javier Vasquez he got beat by always tough Yanks, but he is steady in eating innings solid pitcher. The pitching edge we give to Cabrera due to his 2008 transformation, which may give, and look for continuing surge.

BALTIMORE +136 for 1 unit(Suspended due to Rain)

Oh man, could not close the deal and now the game is rained out with tie score!

Well, let's move on to the late game with Oakland at Angels. Both hot clubs, but most are impressed with Angels rounding the East Coast swing. Yes, they performed against MLB top contenders, but they might blink after that long trip where as Oakland is just coming down state. A's know Jon Garland and they like his stuff with 3-8 record. Garland is also cooling and that's another plus for A's. Gaudin rounding into form and he's going the distance.
Take the value on the road underdog.

OAKLAND +120 for 1 unit(W)

1-0-1 +1.20 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 21-15 +7.11 units

Armando Galarraga has done more than his share to fill in for D-Train holding opponents scoreless for 14 2/3 innings while same can't be said of his counter part filling in for Big John Lackey, visiting Angels Dustin Mosely has been shaky. Also keep in mind Tigers have turned on it's offense and this game opened with Detroit moneyline at -125 quickly moving to -130. But I like the Angels performing on the road continuing to collect as underdogs and this is the site of Mosely's 10K performance last year very capable pitcher better than what he's shown. I understand Tigers can put this game out of reach in any inning, but Halos and Dustin has good chance of stealing this following their 4-3 win Angels optioned first baseman Kendry Morales and infielder Sean Rodriguez to Class AAA Salt Lake of the Pacific Coast League and recalled relievers Jose Arredondo and Rich Thompson. Angels moving pieces back to core strength pitching and speed.

ANGELS +138 for 1 unit(L)

Take the Dodgers at home with Penny on the mound to take this Total way Over as that is the MO in tonights situational play. If your book offers the 1st 5innings take that Over too as I expect nothing less than easy 10 points on this warm summer like evening in Los Angeles.

COL/LAD OVER 9 at +112 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +1.12 units

MLB Thursday

2-0 last selection but have to cancel the Angels due to scratched SP. 20-15 +5.81 units

Tonight the play is on Baltimore O's at Seattle M's and this selection will go against Washburn. Mariners playing .500 ball is a bit better at home and Baltimore sports 3-5 losing road record, but Washburn is a money burner at the bottom of Seattle SP. Loewen to keep this interesting.

BALTIMORE +130 for 1 unit(W)

There's a tight win! 1-0 +1.30 units

MLB Wednesday

1-2 last selection YTD 19-15 +4.52 units

Daisuke Matsuzaka is not exactly pitching lights out, but Red Sox are so going against them at Fenway it tough as it gets. Still Jon Garland knows his game and it's starting to get better. Angels are the Western contender with balance and Garland is at the high end of food chain within current Halos SP. I expect him to deliver tonight.

ANGELS +166 for 1 unit(W)

Florida Marlins will give Miller the ball and this kid has the stuff it just has not completely developed on the big mound, but that will turn at Atlanta. Bennett will try to eat innings today and he has been good so far, but I see it as over achieving.

MARLINS +129 for 1 unit(W)

Pow!
2-0 +2.95 units

MLB Tuesday

1-1 last selection YTD 18-13 +5.07 units

Backed this selection on St Louis last night when ML swung strong to Brewers coming off a tight loss to Cards. I know there's more to the price movement, but I was able to steal +120 off the board and current "ask" around +113, "bid" around -114, closing in on game time.

CARDINALS +120 for 1 unit(L)

Bucks are due for a win at home, but I don't subscribe to that theory and Florida has done nothing wrong.

MARLINS +113 for 1 unit(L)

American League play on late game in Oakland where Blanton is strongly favored, but does not reflect the outcome so far. Livan for the Twins have come through and field is playing excellent defense.

TWINS +145 for 1 unit(W)

Not cutting mustard.
1-2 -0.55 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection YTD 17-12 +5.07 units

Total Forecast UNDER
*Cheat sheet does not indicate Sunday's result.
Houston O/U 6-12 tied for 3rd with Baltimore with 66.7%, home O/U 3-5 at 62.5% allowing 3.9 runs. Against RHP 5-9 at 64.3% averaging 3.6 runs. Last 7 O/U 2-5 at 71.4%.
Roy Oswalt 1-3 with 1 quality start, but that quality game returned in his last start clamping down the offense minded Phillies in Philadelphia. Even with 3 shaky starts Astros have managed to split the O/U 2-2 with Oswalt taking the mound.
San Diego O/U 7-10-1 tied for 5th with Oakland and Texas. Though their away numbers do not favor UNDER Padres are O/U 5-9-1 against RHP and they are at the bottom of run production at 2.9 per game. Justin Germano has pitched 3 out of 3 quality games and Padres let him down on all three counts and that O/U 2-1 should be 0-3.
These two teams have met already this season with O/U 1-3, Last two seaons O/U 3-8.

PADRES/ASTROS UNDER 8.5 +119 for 1 unit(L)

Oswalt quietly returning to form and you know he is #1 Astros pitcher regardless of early struggles. I'd go runline -1.5 with Padres fading, but Houston is not exactly steam rolling opponents. Back the Moneyline.

HOUSTON -138 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 0.00 units

MLB Saturday

0-2 last selection YTD 17-11 +6.07 units

Sorry to be so late on a sports filled Saturday, but wanted to be selective. Keeping in mind the mantra "buy low sell high" Padres have fallen and after a weak showing with Maddux last night struggling Young will take the ball. SD line has moved all the way from +100 to +112 at Pinny with depleted pen and cold bats on cappers mind. Gonzalez is still in early form and maybe the weak link. Chris Young is San Diego's #2 after Peavy and if anyone can stop the bleeding Young would be a good bet.
*Matchbook line
SAN DIEGO PADRES +114 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

0-1 heart breaker yesterday YTD 17-9 +8.07 units

Pirates will play the underdog role as long as there are enough doubters. Today is one of those days when Bucks meet the Cubs in Chicago. If you buy into the Cubs today your most likely counting on the bats to come through against Snell and Hill will manage to eat enough innings. That's not a far fetched scenario, but more likely is Bucks will get to Hill and Snell with confidence will once again stand victorious.

PIRATES +130 for 1 unit(L)

Mets managed the extra inning win and that's good, but they had to really work to beat them pesky Nats. Today in the City of Brotherly Love Phils are not pesky, but down right dangerous in this battle between the aces. I think Phillies have the higher ace today.

PHILLIES +102 for 1 unit(L)

2 unwise plays 0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Thursday

2-0 yesterday YTD 17-8 +9.07 units

Backing White Sox on the road back to back and reasons have not changed from what I wrote yesterday. O's pen is wasted right now and there is no starter advantage tonight. Buy a ticket and ride the White Ponies.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +103 for 1 unit(L)

Old fashion moose blowing the 9th inning save and losing in the 10th.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Wednesday

2-1 yesterday YTD 15-8 +6.95 units

I know I talk trash about the White Sox Big Cuban, but that's all in scope of the match up with little or no value. I think it's different today because Adam Lowen has weaknesses greater than Jose Contreras and he has not been able to go deep into his game. Matter of fact last 3 starters have unable to go no more than 5 innings exhausting their pen. Baltimore's home strength is thinning since 5-1 start and batting is coming down. We'll ride White Sox at Camden Yards.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +112 for 1 unit(W)

Mariners bats come alive last night racking up 11 runs. Today the team is at Oakland with King Felix on the mound. We like Felix and Mariners, Oakland just returning from East with longer travel. Joe Blanton is always reliable and pitches well at home, but A's seem to take too many tough loss in this type of match up.

SEATTLE MARINERS +100 for 1 unit(W)

There's my 2-0 and that's +2.12 units

MLB Tuesday

2-0 yesterday 13-7 +5.88 units

Why not roll with Angels at Texas? Milwood is the veteran leadership for the Rangers and Texas needs to stop the bleeding. It just seems at team's troubling times comes too early for Texas and Angels are just the team to give it to them. Milwood showing flashes of his old self, circa 2002 Braves, lefties are swinging .189 , but Mr. Washington is tinkering with the line up, giving his catcher a day off and I think Angels are going to take care of whatever Rangers are scheming.

ANGELS +114 for 1 unit(W)

I think there is a strong backing for Indians taking on the Red Sox. Even with Byrd failing badly the faithfuls are out and pitching doubters should be puzzled at the near even price for the Tribe.
The line is predicting Indians to come through, but I'll side with the squares and take Wake with Sox.

RED SOX -103 for 1 unit(W)

Adding Braves for tonight to make it a threesome. Is it another misguided line or Atlanta collapse? Scott Olsen is pitching pretty good in last 2 starts, but lost more than won last season and Braves seem to have his number, 8.54 ERA in 32 2/3 innings, while going 1-4. Jair Jurrjens taking the ball for Atlanta will hold his own and long as we get some offensive burst Brave should hold on to take this on the road.

BRAVES -107 for 1 unit(L)

Stupid me added a loser when I could of been perfect. Oh well, I can live with 2 out of 3.
2-1 +1.07 units

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection 11-7 +3.77 units

Zack Greinke is looking lights out so far in early season. He may not keep pace, but I don't think Mariners will get much to hit. Washburn was good last time out and not so good 2 outings ago, as far as I'm concerned jury is still out on Jarrod as you can look back at his track record going to last season and if he doesn't have a good outing the pen is no relief. Royals pitching is another story and that's what's driving them.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS + 111 for 1 unit(W)

Back to back Angels play. Heading to Arlington, Texas with Santana on the mound and he has been solid. We won with him on the road and we take it one more time.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS -101 for 1 unit(W)

Nice!
2-0 +2.11 units

MLB Sunday

2-0 last selection YTD 10-6 +3.73 units

April Sunday is like baseball day dream when it's warm enough for the BBQ grill to come out and friends to join in. So better stock up early on drinks, meat and some baseball know-how.
So Angels are 6-5 and Seattle's draining your wallet? Not to fear, Erik Bedard is not living up to Mariner's expectations and Los Angeles will send their hottest pitcher Joe Saunders who has been outstanding in his last 2. Angels to take Sunday.
Bedard may get scratch take action before the line change.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS +121 for 1 unit(W)

If there is a pitcher with early struggles I would put Tom Gorzelanny on that list and it's no recent occurrence with last win dated last season September 7th. Pirates maybe feeling pretty good after stringing 2 wins in a row from Reds, but Johnny Cueto is a young gun worth following and he just might be another opposition to hand Tom Gorzelanny a loss.

REDS -117 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 +0.04 units

MLB Saturday

2-0 last selection YTD 8-6 +1.63 units

Todd Wellemeyer likes being a Cardinal and Cardinals appreciate that. He transformed into a winner with the Red Birds going 9-2 in his 11 starts. Off to a nice start this season and showed he can pitch deep. Matt Cain has good stuff and his trade mark eating innings are not quite there this season, matter of fact a win has eluded him going back to August 2007, seven starts ago. Cardinal get the nod from me.

ST LOUIS +108 for 1 unit(W)

Minnesota Twins are pushing back the forces behind KC Royals. Some have called KC the most improved team of 2008, but they'll lose their share and Tomko is playing with fire. Backing Bonser to get the job done on the road.

MINNESOTA TWINS +102 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.10 units

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection YTD 6-6 -1.12 units

I wouldn't say Ricky Nolasco rivals Roy Oswalt. Ricky has come out of the pen and was moved early into the rotation with VandenHurk sent down probably expected to give them 5 innings or so, but I wouldn't ponder on that too much. As much as Oswalt and the Stros have feasted on Marlins Os has shown he is out of form. That's enough for me to take on the big dog with young, inexperienced and under rated fish.

FLORIDA MARLINS +170 for 1 unit(W)

Feeling a bit too much love for Boston Red Sox tonight. I understand the Bean Town Boys will be ready to play, but New Yorks got Wang on the mound and I just can not resist this fine ground ball pitcher as a dog. Yeah, Red Sox have got to Wang in the past and Jeter's hurting still I think it's a tall order for young Buchholz.

NEW YORK YANKEES +105 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.75 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection YTD 4-6 -3.17 units

Reds are in Milwaukee where Brew crew is rolling 6-2 over all, but I like Reds chances with Harang taking the mound and Reds are very dangerous. Carlos Villanueva held his own yet showed he is very hittable and Reds are a good bet to take 2 in a row.

REDS +105 for 1 unit (W)

Seattle Mariners will hand the ball to Miguel Batista in Tropicana Field and he is looking to bounce back from a loss in Baltimore (4/5 4-6 loss) 5 innings 7 hits 5 runs. The counter part is Edwin Jackson who ended last season looking strong and his last outing looked good against the Yanks. Mariners have owned the Rays in the past, but let's face it Jackson looks better rolling with the home team.

TAMPA -133 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.05 units

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection YTD 4-5 -0.77 units

San Diego Padres -120 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.40 units

MLB Tuesday

0-2 last selection YTD 4-4 +0.23 units

You know Bedard is on the mound at Tampa and this match is close to even money. If you've followed Bedard's transition to Seattle you know it hasn't been smooth and he's missed a game prior to this start. Expect him to pick up his game sometime heading into summer, but Tampa gets the nod from the Books.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS +105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection YTD 4-2 +2.23 units

Seattle Mariners are playing flat and they are losing to Baltimore. The O's are rebuilding right now and their share of wins are expected to be small so when they get a burst of wins like they have done I can see backers getting shy. Mariners are going to put the better product on the field and the price is very under valued.

SEATTLE MARINERS +105 for 1 unit(L)

Adding.
I guess the betting public like the Under and they have played a low total game, but Yanks still have the killer line up and Moose in early season could be the right combo.

D-Rays at Yanks OVER 10 at +110 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection YTD 3-2 +1.05 units

Cleveland Indians at Oakland A's. This will feature Cliff Lee pitching against Joe Blanton with pretty close numbers. As usual Indians as a slight road dog will be my play.

CLEVELAND ML +118 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.18 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection YTD 3-1 +2.05 units

Rockies at home hosting Arizona D-Back with Webb on the mound. Snakes may look cheap in Denver, but Francis is also a budding star and Rox are the one with value at home.

DENVER ROCKIES ML +108 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection YTD 2-1 +1.05 units

Welcome back Batis !

LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres with score to go Over 8 runs, The Japanese import Kuroda goes against Germano and I'd say hittable game.

LAD/SDP OVER 7.5 at +101 for 1 unit(W)


It was pitchers dual till Germano left the game. One big inning pushed it Over !
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-1 YTD +0.05 units
Angles at Twins.

Taking Santana and the boys in Red.

LAA ML -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-1 yesterday +0.05 units year to date, scratching out a profit and unfortunately it's too late to post the Dodgers to kill the Giants in their opener with Big Bad Penny on the mound, but that's how it went down on this last day of March 2008.

On this day was pit falls and land mines everywhere as dogs bit hard.
Expect the unexpected as the saying goes. Early season underdogs are not simply a blue moon occurrence, but look at teams with core players intact and see how new additions have fared in Spring training to give you a gauge. Look for last years bottom feeders with retooled look and those with rebuilding mode. Keep your eyes on staying power teams to withstand their player losses. Don't forget the foreign imports with no MLB experience. There you have it on my early thoughts for this season. All that and no teams to name? Like the Dodgers to take NL West and will be back for my daily picks later.

Have a good season Players. Remember it a long way to the top if you want to Rock & Roll.

MLB 2008

Sunday baseball coming at you. I've been here in Arizona soaking up the sun, catching some Cactus league games, hanging out with some old friends and meeting some new ones. It has been fun, but time has come to make the trip back to SoCal. I'll be looking forward to the Dodgers making a run for the money this season with the Godfather guiding the way.

Today's play comes from the old crew that has been rocking MLB for over two decades. Keep in mind the Aces are the mound and Perez might hold his own although I'm not sure about the relievers.

ATLANTA BRAVES -1.5 at +102 for 1 unit(L)
ATL/WAS UNDER 8.5 at +105 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.05 units

MLB Cactus League Monday

Coming off a win with Padres.

Similar reasoning from last play. Mariners will take the long bus ride out to Tucson Electric Park and White Sox will be ready with their A team. Mark Buehrle will be taking the mound for his third start so far going 6 scoreless in 2 outings to give the home team some early edge. Also on schedule to pitch Scott Linebrink, Bobby Jenks, Boon Logan and Ehren Wassermann.
Mariners sending Erik Bedard who has been hit this spring. Others are R.A. Dickey, Ryan Feierabend, Sean Green, and Brandon Morrow. Seattle Mariners have listed Adam Russell, Carlos Vasquez and D.J. Carrasco, as pitchers other than Buehrle but I'm not sure about that. Don't quote me on it I have no confirmation still feel good enough backing the South Siders today.

WHITE SOX -110 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

Cacuts League Sunday

This match up in Peoria comes as White Sox makes their road game the old fashion way by way of a long bus ride from Tucson. You know it's important for cusp players to make that trip, but some of the vets that got their work in yesterday may opt to stay. There are only three teams playing in Tucson, D-Backs, Rox and White Sox, any other combination will require the bus ride. I'm also not big on the Cuban in Spring Training and Tomo Oka looks to follow. So I'll go with Wolfe taking the start at Peoria with Padres swinging pretty good bat.


SDP -110 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

Cactus League

Hanging out in PHX where the Cactus league action is in session. I'm going to watch a bit more before making money plays.

MLB 2008 Cactus League Saturday

Yeah baby, bringing it to you from the Valley of the Sun. It looks like another perfect day and though there are CBB games all day it's just too much for me to be indoors. We have been scouting teams and taking notes so get ready for this match up at the Peoria Sports complex where we will back the Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres.

SEATTLE MARINERS +113 for 1 unit(L)

Looked good, but gave it away late.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Spring Training Camp

It's that time of the year! Pitchers and Catchers will first report in and I'm getting ready to make my annual migration to Phoenix, AZ. I know it's way too early with Basketball and Hockey (Ice picks have got away for most part) going on strong and that's fine. I just like the feel of crisp mornings with fast rising sun, the smell of cut grass and the sound of ball in glove. It's all good baby and I'll get to catch some Phoenix Suns basketball with Old Man Shaq back to the West.

Phoenix sure has changed over the years. Peoria Sports Complex was surrounded by Desert now it's packed with homes. I know it's one of the hard hit area for sub prime mortgage and the way US economy is headed it'll get worse before getting better I'm interested in checking it out for myself. Stay tuned as I will be making my calls.