World Series Game 5

Can't catch a break in deep post season, but I will tell you when the series total moves greater than 1.5 runs on either direction for following game the play against the movement is obvious public choice and also very suspect. In this case Total 9.5 from game 4 moving to Total 7.5 game 5 at Under -120~130 with 69% consensus betting Over and yet this Total has declined to 7 at some books.

Today's pitchers are both lefties. Cole Hamels pitching last 7 out of 7 quality starts has not allowed more than 2 ER since 9/07. Total ranging from 9~7.5 O/U 1-6 and that single Over game was due to Phillies bats not Hamels pitching. Rays line of defense will start with Scott Kazmir on the mound. He has lost the edge on his slider and games have been going Over when he takes the mound, O/U 7-2 last 9. He's had 3 quality starts out of last 7 with rising 1.63 WHIP, but he was outstanding in his last game, outstanding against Boston before that which was a bounce back game. Phillies and Tampa weaker against lefties, elimination game a plus.

PHL/TAM UNDER 7.5 at -119 for 1 unit(PP due to Rain at 2-2 tie)

This World Series is fading away. It's not the same, it's dragging and this thing might go into November? Give me a break! I love MLB, but we shouldn't be getting rained out. This has not happened because the season has never been this long. The momentum has died and I'm not sure what I'm going to due for the remaining games. Plan is not to force any games and take what comes. Stay tuned and in the mean time watch the bouncing ball in NBA Opener!

World Series Game 4

Game 4 in Philadelphia will welcome better weather with wind blowing 9mph out toward right center. That’s 401 ft straight away to 409 ft to 385 ft at the "Angle" left center producing an UNDER advantage at Citizens Ball park. The Phillies are 2 for33 with RISP overall hitting .178 in post season and have 2 infield singles in 3 games of World Series so far.
Bull pen has been outstanding with 1.85 ERA in post season, 2nd best MLB all time. Tampa sending pitcher Sonnanstine who is O/U 9-9 away, but at 1.17 WHIP and lower in post season play so there’s little to wonder UNDER trending 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 3, if you had U9.5 in game 3. Looking for runs to come at a premium again with pitchers batting.

UNDER 9.5 at -115 for 1 unit

World Series Game 3

Here we go in rainy Philly game 3 of world series knotted 1-1, Forcasted before the series as a tight billing with the home field being the edge. That would put Phil's in the drivers seat, but that's not the case with Moyer and two shaky post season starts up against Garza pitching at his best.
Give another edge to Garza with Phillies only having Matt Stairs as the only player to have faced Garza.
Rays -113 for 1 unit

ALCS Game 7

Red Sox back from the dead have knotted this up 3-3. Tampa will play out this showdown on their turf, but do they have any more home brewed magic? Garza is the last line of defense against Lester who was roughed up in his last home appearance. Just as Rays dominated this match up in game 3 the tide has changed with wind behind Red Sox sail. Wakening of Boston bats in game 5 was uncanny and if Rays were to take this series they needed to close the deal in game 6. Now doubts lurk in young Ray players and confidence is dissipating. Look for Boston return to World Series in a replay of 2007 ALCS.

BOSTON ML -118 for 1 unit(L)

Hats off to Garza & Rays.
0-1 -1.18 units

POST SEASON MLB Monday

3-0 Post Season plays. So far Perfecto!

Angels at Red Sox back to game 1 starters where Lester got the best of Lackey, but Lackey is tough on the road. I see this game to be a dog fight as Angels have raised their level of play and Red Sox are at home in post season dominace. You know I would take Angels in a heartbeat if my capping told me that's what's going to happen, but I don't see them forcing the issue in October Fenway. Boston to move on to take on 2008 dream team Tampa Rays.

BOSTON RED SOX -129 for 1 units(W)

I hate to be so right sometimes. I love the Halos they're my So Cal home team, but business is business. Still rolling all winners!
1-0 +1.00 unit

POST SEASON MLB Sunday

2-0 in Post Season plays.

Looks like all the losing teams are going down 1-2-3. How about this, Angels to buck the trend in Boston after taking two beating at home. Won't happen? Angels are done? maybe so, but 100 game winner Angels get one more try to get this monkey off their back. First game Lester shut down Angels offense didn't allow runners to cash in. Second game Dice K looked shaky as hell and if it wasn't for the big burst 1st by BoSox home team should of held the series knotted. Now here we are today all or nothing and Angels in spot for elimination. Becket is a big game pitcher, but does not come in strong and under cold weather his oblique issue will be tested. Joe Saunders in last line of defense is much stronger on the road. Take into consideration the meat of Angels line up is hitting and I don't think they'll roll over tonight.

ANGELS +163 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.63 units

POST SEASON MLB Friday

1-0 in Post Season.

I say something nice about Chicago and it looks like both are in trouble. White Sox are on the road so there's some excuse there, but how about them Cubs. Can the Dodgers end Chicago's dream? I'm not going to doubt it.

Two games in slate for Friday, White Sox at Rays and Boston at Anaheim, on first glance it looks Over at Tampa and Under at Anaheim, but that's just me most people see sides I see totals.

Considering inconceivable sides with White Sox and Boston of these two teams I think Boston away with Dice K taking the mound has the best value to risk. Santana is great no doubt and his maturity bring another element to a big game, but this situation with Boston taking back seat to Angels all year only to have them come strong is typical Red Sox playing October baseball. These two team play similar games where both teams used to play on the opposite spectrum, but shed or added players changing their dynamics. There is a edge to Red Sox showing better numbers with runner in scoring position playing the road dog.

RED SOX +130 for 1 unit(W)

Thank you Drew!
1-0 +1.30 units

POST SEASON MLB Wednesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 86-65-2 +41.98 units

Win on Zona was my last posted selection for the regular season. Had some rough spots toward the end, but I'm happy with the season. White Sox had a nice finish too, but keep in mind the tough wins weren't all that tough and both came at home. Something about Chicago not just White Sox, but Cubs too even though they tapered towards the end that home field looks mighty strong.



Let's get this party started right.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies.
Taking the veteran Cole in a RL. Siding with the odds makers.

PHL -1.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)

Winner winner chicken dinner.
1-0 +1.04 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 85-65-2 +40.98 units

Brandon Webb and the Arizona diamondbacks are in hunt for October. 21 game winner Webb hit a rough patch losing three in a row from 8/26, 8/31 & 9/6, but that's behind him coming back strong the following two games with 15 innings 13 hits 2 ER both winners. Away record 10-5, team record 10-7 with excellent 1.14 WHIP coming into St Louis in a spot to improve.
Todd Wellemeyer has done well for the Cards with 12-8, but team record 14-16 means Cards have not done their part when Todd does not factor into the game. He is also posting better numbers on the road too bad this one is at home. Loser of 4 out of last 5 while pitching quality or near quality starts as 4 out of last 5 has also gone Under.

ARIZONA -120 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

0-2 last selection. YTD 85-65-2 +41.98 units

Tonight is a historical night as Yankee Stadium, the 3rd oldest of current active ball parks, will close it's doors after tonight's home stand against Baltimore. Andy Pettite getting the ball is appropriate and there seems to be no doubt about Yankees taking this game. Consensus +70% are laying the thick chalk so the alternative is to look at the Run Line? To be clear Pettite comes in pitching 4 non-quality starts out of last 5, lone quality start was still a loser making all of last 5 starts team losses. Yanks are 1-9 in Andy's last 10 starts his home record is much worse than on the road 5-8 with team record 6-10. Still Andy is not all to blame as Yanks bats scored no more than 3 runs in any of those 5 straight losers total of 10 runs in 5 games. That's also adding to his huge Under bias O/U 9-23
Chris Waters barely got his feet wet with 53 innings, but coming off a shut out of Blue Jays.
I don't see that as a good sign as Waters got rung by Texas back in August after shutting down the Angels for 8 innings. He has followed a quality start with a stinker twice in his 9 starts. O's do back up Waters on the road and team is 3-1.
I think Yanks will take the game, but expect O's to give them a game. Don't be surprised if O's take the lead going into late inning only to have it slip away.

BALTIMORE +1.5 at +112 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 85-63-2 +43.98 units

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians. Featuring Justin Verlander against Jeremy Sowers. Both pitchers with losing season and both pitchers will be throwing to the strong side of respective clubs. The total has been set on the high side at 10 and Jeremy is pitching Under at home in a spot to improve from his last outing. Justin also pitching Under away, but more due to Tigers lack of scoring. That may not be the case today as Verlander is improving.

TIGERS +100 for 1 unit(L)
OVER 10 +101 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 85-62-2 +44.98 units

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs. Chicago sending their big gun Rich Harden and he's been all that. But far as Bush and the Brewers being done for 2008 is a premature public perception.
Brew crew still in the hunt and Cubbies are not in best form heading into post season. Play the road dog with backs against the wall.

BREWERS +216 for 1 unit(L)

99 times out of 100 we win with 4 run cushon in the 9th. All I can say is WTF!
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 84-62-2 +43.81 units

Odalis Perez 6-10, 12 quality starts 4.48 ERA, 1.52 WHIP. His record does not give you much indication, but to fade him more times than not. His home record less than on the road, but Washington has managed to have 8-6 winning record. That bit of information maybe a cause for further investigation. Perez has been durable this year with 27 games and though he has 11 ND Nats have pulled out 6-5 in those situations. Out of those ND at home the record is 6-1. Odalis coming off a 3 inning stinker at New York Mets and he is in a bounce back spot at home facing the Mets again. Another important point is the Under which is a stand out O/U 3-11 Odalis at home. Don't worry about Mets with Mike they're facing the lowest scoring team in MLB.

UNDER 9 at +117 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.17 units

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 83-62-2 +42.69 units

Game time. Here it is for AL East Boston at Tampa Bay. One of the best home team taking on one of the winning est pitcher in 2008. Home team pitching is also one tough dude, Kazmir, and this match up should be a good one. I'm going to boil it down to this "who the new boss? same as the old boss" It late season and Red Sox are showing it. That's what I'm playing with Dice-K on the mound.

BOSTON +112 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.12 units

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 82-62-2 +41.69 units

The Hurricane has altered the course of things to come. I'm referring to Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros. The damage was not that bad, but this game has been moved to Miller park.
There are interesting changes to how the pitchers will fare. Zambrano is not in his best form and has more than his share of non-quality starts, but he does hold his own on the road. That might not been good enough with Randy Wolfe pitching strong, very strong at home, but no so away from Minute Maid. His recent form has him pitching well away and home, but one place that has given Randy problems is Miller Park. While Zambrano doesn't mind the cozy confines of Miller Randy will have those bad flash backs. Go with Cubs.

CHICAGO CUBS -114 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 82-61-2 +42.69 units

Back to the grind. Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Game 2.

Yes, I like the Blue Jays in Game 1 with A.J. and in Game 2 it's more about going against Colon.

Keep your eyes on 1st game to see what pitchers get used.

TORONTO +123 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

Coming off a No Play. YTD 81-61-2 +41.46 units
This Matchbook payout delay is getting way beyond reasonable and I'm not playing their exchange. They have lost my trust and that's all they have. The writings are on the wall jjust curise the internet and you wind the same talk. People are not saying their funds are low, but who's to say it's not and that's the first thought that comes to my mind.



Take Texas on the road against Oakland



TEX +123 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.23 units

MLB Tuesday

Wow September 9th already. 0-1 in last selection. YTD 81-61-2 +41.46 units

I'm having issues with MatchBook exchange and it's really putting a damper on capping my games and getting info published. I like to think it's a isolated incident, but they are just dragging to resolve it and it's getting on my nerves. I will make noise if this keeps up.
Like I tell anyone who listen, keep multiple books and limit exposure because if any of these books go belly up you'll end up holding a empty bag. It doesn't matter how cheap they sell it if it doesn't work. When the exodus starts it will be swift.

I'd advise having 3 Off Shore accounts without affiliation. You can get more, but any less makes it really hard to get competitive rates and if you go more than 5 accounts you better be good at organizing. I'm not as close with Pinnacle Sports since they pulled out of U.S. , but they are still the top book around. I'm also going to give good house seal to BookMaker they are the open line where you can gauge the market and play'em big. Another choice is Greek or Bet Jamaica, they are affiliated, Both very good and for MLB Bet Jamaica has competitive lines, bonus programs and great BetJamaica transfer card allowing to pull money from ATM. Do your own research and don't forget to look at Sportsbook Review.

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 81-60-2 +42.46 units
L.A. Angels at Chicago White Sox.
Top road team take one the toughest home team in AL. White Sox sending Ace Burlie against call up Dustin Mosely. Burlie is tough at home, but the Halos have hit him well and Mosely can keep this in striking range. Taking the good price on Angels and they are still rolling.

LAA +154 at 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Wednesday

1-1 last selection with small profit. YTD 81-59-2 +43.46 units


New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays in game two of series.
Game 1 NYY 7-2 Mussina 3rd straight win against the Rays went 6 innings scattering 1 allowing 2 runs.

Garza was not on his game, but Rays were sloppy too, with 5 innings 5 hits 6 runs 4 earned.

NYY improved to 8-5 against the Rays. Marte pitched facing 2 and Chamberlin faced 1 in 8th and Giese finished the 9th for NYY.

Miller pitched 2 innings 2 hits no run, Hammel pitched 1 inning 2 hits 1 run (HR) and Salas gave nothing with 2 K'sin the 9th.


Tonight Yankees send Carl Pavano only his 3rd start since coming back from DL. He has pitched 16 innings in 2 starts 163 pitches and has 2 wins to show for it with 3.27 ERA. He's return is looking pretty good and he only threw 72 pitches last outing. He come in on a spot to decline in quality on the road, but still might be tough to beat.

Edwin Jackson gets the call for to tie up this series and he comes in hot winning 6 of last 7 with 5 quality start close to all 7 starts being quality with 2.59 ERA in this stretch.

Game 1 looked like it wanted to go Over as it threatened with 12 hits by the Rays and 9 by the Yankees and that tone will carry over to game 2, but speculating Jackson can stay on his game I like the Under to cash. Edwin and Rays have been tough on division rivals with Under games having advantage, 4-8. Home games O/U 5-8.

NNY/TAMP UNDER 9.5 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
The play did speculate Jackson having a quality game which he did not.
Still cappers on Over was sweating it as the Under was holding by the hook in 8th inning and A-Rod homer in the 9th was the first MLB replay used to uphold the call.
0-1 -1.00 unit