MLB Saturday

New York Mets at Houston Astros.
Mets are sending Jon Niese making his sixth appearance. I remember reading about Niese making improvements in the Minor, but I also recall the chance of him coming up was good as a full lunar eclipse. How things change with few pitchers going down and it does look like a case of hot pitcher getting the call. However Mets are reeling on the road and one big motive operendi is surging Astros in the 2nd half.

HOUSTON -130 for 1 unit

MLB Friday

Sometimes there are too many rainy days. Aaron Harang with 121 innings completed throwing 104 K's to 29 BB's is having those rainy days. The pride of San Diego State has regressed since going 16-6 two seasons ago and has not recorded a W since 5/25, that's 11 starts ago. Consecutive starts going 7 innings or better has not happened since 6/4 & 6/10 meaning 7th innings of performance has been followed by a declined outing. He does keep the Reds in striking range as indicated by the team record of 9-11, but when Cincy takes the road Aaron is 1-6 with team record of 3-7 with loss margin of 1.6 runs. Cubs will take the home field with Randy Wells on the mound. At 5-4 record & 7-6 team record seems unassuming, but he is progressing. From 6/21 to 7/6 he strung 4 wins in a row all quality starts. He has 5 wins in last 6 starts with excellent run support comes to play 4-1 under the sun.

CUBS -146 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Wednesday

I feel tonight's going to be a good night. Coming into to late season form St Louis Cardinals come to play at Minute Maid park. You know Houston will be toasting in blazing Texas sun, but the game will come in climate controlled park with funny angles and center field mound with a pole. Keeping in mind Redbirds are reeling, but will put their faith in Chris Carpenter (8-3, 2.26 ERA & 0.88 WHIP) undefeated in July looking very much the Ace. On the home front Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.65 ERA & 1.18 WHIP) coming off a 1 run complete game and also undefeated in July. This match up dictates the low 7.5 total dropping to 7 though the pitchers do not trend strongly the teams do.

UNDER 7.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Sunday

Looking at Cards at Reds I see very similar teams, but Cards hold the pedigree. All eyes will be casted on Carpenter match up against Arroyo. Now Bronson has been terrible to this point Carpenter's failure are rare and seen as anomaly. So how do I break it down? Chris Carpenter was touched up by the Giants last Tuesday and most likely Chris will come ready to play. As La Russa said Giant's didn't give up contact for six runs, but they hit some well placed balls. The trend is Carpenter as good as he is he's given up at least 3 runs in 4 out of 5 starts meaning his dominance is cooling. Bronson Arroyo made no secrets about having offseason surgery to repair the carpal tunnel injury in his right wrist, but he's been working on cortisone shot and claims it's been pretty good. 6 runs he gave up the first 3 runs are tied into error throw to First, but he did give up a back to back home runs, one to Dan Harren the opposing pitcher. Anyway both pitchers are in a spot to improve and the books hung a 7.5 total which quickly drove up to 8. We are looking at Sunday baseball under the Sun, it's cloudy in Cincinnati, at he Great American Ballpark and even with pitchers improving the number looks a bit low for this hitter friendly ball park. I agree with the direction of this Total and recommend taking OVER the current Total of 8.

OVER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

It was one sided, but I'll take it! 0-1 +1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

Shairon Martis starting for Washington Nationals is coming off a loss against Toronto and his team has strung 5 losses in a row with Martis on the job. He is lacking quality outing only logging one in four June games. His last win was 5/13@SFG and last team win was 5/24 BAL. Things look pretty gloom for Nationals on the road against O's, but let me list some positives. Martis out of 14 games started 11 was Underdog and all six of his quality starts came in Underdog situation with Nats going 5-6 and 50% against Righty. Another indicator is his game leading to a quality has come after a rocky outing just as his last one. On the O Birds home mound Jeremy Guthrie will take the ball and despite having 5 quality starts out of last 7 the O's are only 2-5. Overall Guthrie's starts have yeild 5-10 record absolutely burning backers money. Allow me to take the good size road dog on Martis turn around spot.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS +170 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Wednesday

Matt Garza SP for Tampa is often said to have the best stuff in the Rays rotation, but as current records indicate he is average ERA of 3.83 with record of 4-5. When Matt takes the ball Rays have 6-8 record. He does have winning edge at home 3-2 with team record of 5-3. Does that earn -170 ML? The Odds makers have been on the mark. Most recent big number was against the Nats at home 6/12 at -250 ND Rays win. Before that was -191 home against A's 5/21 ND Rays win. 5/16 was home against Indians -175 recorded win, 5/5 Baltimore at home -184 recorded win. So he/Rays has been tough at home laying the number. Rays are also good in closing out games. Except Rays have some problems with Phillies dating back to last World Series and what happened last night? 10-1 not exactly a revenge battle? This spot is looking very tempting to take the road dog when the dog is the best road team in the Majors and Blanton 4-3 is also a road warrior with 3 of the 4 wins coming away, but don't cast judgement on Matt Garza based on what Pierce gave up. Joe Blanton has logged 3 ND in a row longest of this season and given up HR's in every June start. I think Joe will be good today, but Tampa holds late inning edge. Like I said the ML dog is tempting, but if you must choose sides take the +1.5 runs. I will take the play on Under as both pitchers are poised to improve and Rays power outage holds advantage over sides.

UNDER 9 at +103 for 1 unit(W)

That was a bit interesting towards the end 1-0 +1.03 units

MLB Saturday

Is Johan Santana OK? You have to ask yourself before pulling the trigger on Tampa Bay at New York Mets. Maybe your looking at stats see Tampa's James Shields having hard time on the road (1-3 and team 1-5 away) against Santana's stellar 5-1 home record. Mets are also 8 games above .500 at home vs Tampa 14-22 away. But coming back to my first question is Johan Santana OK? He's got off track 2 starts ago and last one against the Yanks was a doozy. The money has been going toward the Mets and I'm not convinced of Santana's shape. Shields still eating innings and Rays pen has been good.

TAMPA +116 for 1 unit(W)

Johan back on his game, but James is bringing it too. We have a pitchers battle and this one might get called with this delay lasting any longer. It'll be too bad because true to Santana's form the long ball was launched by Pena giving the Rays 2-1 lead. We are in a delay in the 8th.

Maybe try another.
New York Yankees at Florida Marlins.
A.J. Burnett against Josh Johnson I like both of these pitchers and this season a big fan of JJ. The big righty has compiled 98 innings going 6-1. 2.76 ERA which improves to 3-1, 2.02 ERA at home. With JJ working on the mound the Fish are 11-3 an impeccable record. The visiting Yanks with A.J. Burnett is a force to reckon with they disposed Johan Santana and the mets by score of 15-0 the last time. A.J. is a warrior, but maybe not in the same groove as JJ with 5-3 record and Yanks going 8-5. On the road Yanks have gone 3-3. I like the Fish here, but I'm going to roll with the UNDER with this Interleague game being played at National League park and although A.J. has been involved in some high scoring games it's not because off A.J. Yankees also trending Under. Marlins play Over at home, but I'll take exception with Jeff kellogg behind the plate with a generous strike zone.

NYY/TAMP UNDER 8 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

There you go 2-0 +2.16 units

MLB Monday

If your having some late thoughts on Baseball you should know money has pushed Cleveland Indians at home and Los Angeles Angels visiting San Fransisco Bay. That's it a small card and a quiet night after the Lakers win NBA Championship. Kind of like sports wagering intermission "We will return after a day of rest" is the sign posted. Hell with that! Big John Lacky and the Halos are playing at the Bay. Zito and the G-Men will need to force Angels hands and get Lacky out the game. Rooting for the home team at the Stick, yeah it's some telephone company name on the stadium sign, but to me it's still the STICK.

SFG +119 for 1 unit(L)
LAA/SFG OVER 8.5 for 1 unit(W)

MIL/CLE OVER 9.5 for 1 unit(W)

2-1 +2.00 units

MLB Saturday

Inter league games are different animal. Tigers at Pittsburgh. Armando Galarraga 3-6, 5.19 ERA coming off 3 consecutive quality games pitching 20.2 innings. Armando is a hard luck pitcher who's lacking a win since April 26th nine games ago, but last game in No Decision Tigers picked up a win. Pirates will send Zack Duke 6-4 with 3.07 ERA and tough at home, 4-2 with 2.66 ERA. Zack did not have it in his last game @ATL 6/8 going 6 innings giving up 11 hits and 6 runs, not since April 19th did he give up double digit hits funny thing is that was against Atlanta too. This game by virtue of pitching match up and Pirates being simply under estimated at home makes Pittsburgh a interesting thought. The line has gone exactly that way towards Pirates from opening while Detroit is the slight public favorite. So do you take the sharp move with home team? I'm not doing that here. Detroit Tigers 6th in MLB money team takes Bucs who are above .500 at home. I'd rather take the money line dogs and sinking Under

DETROIT TIGERS +102 for 1 unit(L)
UNDER 9 for -108 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.08 units

MLB Thursday

Kansas City Royals are playing at Jacob, no it's Progressive Field, sending Zack Greinke, 8-2 with 1.55 ERA. This righty stud has completed 87 innings with a stingy WHIP 0.97 his last game 6/05 @TOR was a rare non-quality start after stringing 9 consecutive quality games and first game to give up 2 HR's, matter of fact he had not given any homer up to that point, all in all a off game. Majority will agree he should be back on his game today. On the flip side home town Cleveland Indians with Jeremy Sowers, 1-3 in 25 innings 5.40 ERA that's 5 tries the lone win comes as a relief appearance 5/25 against Tampa, but he did throw quality last time 6/06 @ CHW in a losing game. Obviously KC will have the pitching advantage, but Sowers improvements are under estimated compared to Zack's success not always getting wins, 1-3 last 4 & 2-4 last 6. Zack's strength is also at home and his schedule has missed most road games so far. Royals themselves are 10-18 away. Since the start of this road trip 6/02 Royals have played 8 games and won 2. I'll look for another hard luck game for Zack and the Royals.

CLEVELAND INDIANS +122 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah Baby! Talk about hard luck Royals. The ball flattened a low-flying gull in the 10th inning and rolled past Kansas City's center fielder and Mark DeRosa scored from second base to give the Cleveland Indians a 4-3 win over the Royals on Thursday night.

1-0 +1.22 units

MLB Wednesday

Sup everyone? Have you noticed Randy Johnson, the Big Unit, is rarely referred to as the "Big" Unit anymore? He's just the Unit, is that discrediting to his largeness? Or how about the Under Dog status he receives today against the Nats. The meek, pesky Nats and the young gun Jordan Zimmermann will look to delay Randy Johnson's historical 300th win. Can't blame the school of "Not on the first try" theory. If I'm not mistaken only 4 members of the exclusive 300 club did it on the first try. But you know the outcome doesn't equate to Giants losing.

SF GIANTS +121 for 1 unit(PPD)

MLB Friday

Wow the week flew by and it's already Friday! That's alright it's going to be a busy weekend as usual. Hey the Dodgers are still rolling. They started hot last year and first half is going great this year. Billingsly coming off a 5 run game I expect better in this spot. Lilly is pitching well too and coming off a 5 run game which likely will improve at home. So can we take the Under.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS/CHICAGO CUBS UNDER 8 -115(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Monday

Being in L.A. I followed the Freeway series and what a series it was. Nail biter all the way and you know the Angels took the series, but they exhausted their pitching. Look what happened with Ervin Santana getting clobbered when the pen is hurting. Now on to game 2 at the Big A with Sando getting the call pitching against Bartolo Colon who stuggled mightily against Minnesota and has not gone more than 5 all May. Last recorded win was 4/28. Still Angel pitching is depleted and I can not pass +170 in this spot. Also these low number Totals are just getting crushed Over by the Angels not to mention White sox with their limited Over the record is O/U 5-2 when at 8 or 8.5 on the road. Take the early Total and steal the Moneyline as Angels are the big public play.

*Keep in mind this is a game wiht live wagering available at various Books. Which means chances of profit taking during game is always a option.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +177 for 1 unit(W)
ANGELS/WHITE SOX OVER 8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 +0.72 units

MLB Interleague "The Freeway Series"

I have no love for the interleague games, but taking a shot with the winningest team in the Majors who happen to also be the best at home.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS -120 for 1 unit(L)

So many chances to cash this in and Dodgers could not answer.

0-1 -1.20 units

MLB Friday

Philadelphia (J. Blanton) at Washington (J. Lannan)
Following the games with certain expectations produce surprises, but some of the most obvious are the one's you never see coming. Washington Nationals are playing decent ball, above the expectation, coming off a road trip 4-4 Western road trip, 6-5 May. Philadelphia on the other hand is playing below expectation dropping two series at home, 2-4 last 6 at home all losses by more than -1.5 and Blanton pitching has strung 2 losses sporting 6.82 ERA & 1.60 WHIP. How will they compete against lefty Lannan who has logged 7 games 3.89 ERA and much better 1.86 ERA at home? I think the rise of Washington to fall of Philadelphia has brought misdirection to today's game and if it's the history holds true nature will correct itself. Joe Blanton 3-0 in most recent match up against Nats and Phil's are 63% at Washingon.

PHILADELPHIA -105 for 1 unit(W)

Cincinnati Reds (A. Harang) at San Diego Padres (K. Corriea)
Reds and Pads are another two teams heading into different directions, but San Diego was anticipated to be bad and there wasn't much covering that fact. Pads line up is hitting .221 right & .209 left and their pen has been heavily taxed facing one of MLB's best road team. Kevin Corriea coming off a quality outing, but ND in Pad loss. Wins have eluded Kevin and all 3 home starts are ND's, but Pads are 2-1. Aaron Harang eating up innings and taking down batters 2.93 ERA in all games. San Diego native should have no probs at Petco.

Reds -118 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 -0.18 units

MLB Wednesday

St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pinero vs Ohlendorf
Bucks regressed on the road, but St Louis is also falling. It's just most view Cards to recover and Pirates continue to fall. That perception is a misguided thinking. Bucks on the road is a contrast to what's been happening at home and they've already got a win on their first game back from the road. Why not ride the home dog.

PIRATES +108 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.08 units

MLB Thursday

Running short n time today. Playing Texas Rangers at Oakland A's listing pitchers McCarthy vs Cahill. I will take the Oakland A's with ML being very tight and pitching looks to give contact in the day game. I'm suspecting A's strike first and Texas will play catch up. A's should have late game advantage and will be bit chilly.

OAKLAND A'S FIRST 5 INNINGS +103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.03 units

MLB Wednesday

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox.
Galarraga vs Buehrie
This game in the south side has White Sox written all over. Not because of returning Jermaine Dye and Josh Fields for offensive improvement, not because of Tigers, Armando Galarraga, sliding a tad with 26.80 ERA, but most of all because Mark Buehrle showing he's still has the stuff making him one of the most winningest home pitcher in modern time.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX -103 for 1 unit(PPD)

MLB Thursday

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers. Early division battles continue with Dodgers returning to the ravine after playing 1 under .500 on the road and splitting the West, (COL 2-1 series win, SFG 1-2 series loss). Dodgers sporting almost a 4 more runs and perfect at home will return on a short hop giving L.A -145 home fav status. J. McDonald will take the mound with 1-1 record, 2-1 team record, 7.72 ERA. He is coming off a win at Colorado, but there are no quality start and has yet to go beyond 5 innings. Padres coming from Colorado (1-2 series loss) Geer filling in for Shawn Hill is coming off a excellent start and if he can come near what he did San Diego should have a fighting chance. I'm going to say the starting pitchers don't factor into this outcome and normally skimpy Total is up to 9, but I think it's reachable and late scoring has been plentiful.

SDP/LAD OVER 9 -118 for 1 unit

MLB Monday

Check out Pittsburgh 11-7 with top ERA in baseball. I know most are not holding their breathes and these games are going under the radar. Tonight the Bucs make a trip to Milwaukee where the Brewers are 2-4 with 8-10 overall. Their less than impressive record is actually a reflection of a team coming out of a slow start. Milwaukee coming home after taking 2 out of 3 series beating Houston and Philadelphia going 5-4, but 4-1 in last 5. Brandon Looper taking the mound for Brew crew is starting out nicely in 17 innings, 3 starts 2-0 record with Brewers winning all three. Pittsburgh will counter with Jeff Karstens who has the least innings of all Pirates starters and might be considered the weak link, but he too is coming off a win. The big factor making the Brewers a big favorite is their 12 game straight win against Pittsburgh. Matter of fact Milwaukee has lost 1 game out of last 15 against the Bucs. That kind of stuff will stay in your mind, but the odds are stacked too high and Bucs are playing good ball. It's still April I'll take the value.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES ML +183 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 units