MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 70-53-2 +34.25 units

When you think of Washington Nationals what comes to your mind? This team is on pace for worst of the worst in MLB and right now in mid of 12 game losing streak. They bleed red in every money situation and this team is a money making fader.

Has anyone not caught on? The deal here is like a hot crap table over filled with chips and if you are trying to get on the train late there's a chance it'll crash as the chalk thickens

Let's tread carefully and take a look at the red inked stats.

Home 23-39 Away 21-44 going bad to worst. 16-29 against division opponents.

August started hot with 4 wins then 6-1 in first 7 games, but they have been sliding ever since with only 4 out of next 12 cashing on +1.5 runline.

Runline winners have been followed by couple of big losers.
Moneyline 107 games logged Underdog, 10 games better than +200 dogs with 7 of those coming in August.

How many big dogs have they cashed? 3 out of 10 with 2 winners in August.


They will be facing a winning lefty pitcher at Philadelphia, Jamie Moyer 11-7 with 3.64 ERA, He's already won them twice and one ND with Phillies winning all three this season.

He has 6 quality start out of last 7 with 2.45 ERA

Also recorded a recent win, 7/30, against Redding at Washington.



Does all this justify laying the big chalk or runliine or maybe even give up -2 in search of better value? I'm starting to see it the other way. Moyer as good as he is right now is coming off a 7 inning 3 hit no run game at San Diego which is high end performance in terms of Jamie's average. I expect some down grade here and he has been weaker at home with 5 quality starts out of 12. Phillies are also in a bit of funk and the teeth of the line up is slumping.

The visiting Nationals willl send up Tim Redding and though he has been getting knocked around in his last two starts he is the top money pitcher for the Nats. He's supported by winning team record home and away. Nats are coming off a shut out in the hands of Bret Meyers which calls for some kind of response from Manny Acta's boys.

NATIONALS +248 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +2.48 units

MLB Wednesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 69-53-2 +33.25 units

Still playing the same series and Giants will give the ball to the superior pitcher at home.
Take the Giants.

SFG -112 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.oo unit

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 68-53-2 +32.25 units

It's been a while since my last post.

Tonight's game is Florida Marlins at San Fransisco Giants. Giants finshed their road trip on a high note and it wasn't just Zito in a groove shutting down the Braves, but G-Men taking the Atlanta series 3-1. Before Atlanta was the 4 game loss in Houston which made the previous Dodgers series win seem just lucky but, all in all 5-6 road trip winning 2 out of 3 series and August record stands 9-8 with 4-1 series wins.

Marlins in August are on the flip side at 6-10. The Fish have lost the Colorado series at home 1-2 then went on to the road trip, winning Phillies series 2-1, losing Mets series 1-2, returned home losing Cards series 1-3 and Chicago series 1-2.

SF Giants are a dangerous home underdog facing the cooling Marlins. Kevin Corria will take the home mound and as Giants have improved Kevin, 2-6 with 5.12 ERA, is 1-1 with 3.90 ERA since the All Star and 0-1 with 2.84 ERA in August. 3 games started 19 innings of work with 16 hits and 6 ER but the Marlins are well aware of their position starting the first game with their top money pitcher Ricky Norasco. Spot for Giants are coming in game 2 and this situation call for the Under.

FLA/SFG UNDER 8 at -103 for 1 units(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 68-52-2 +35.03

Chicago White Sox getting slaughtered in Oakland in the past is nothing to hang your hat on. I would be concerned with the West Coast travel, but not enough to keep me off the White Sox.
I looked at it when it first came out and had it at -105, but this pick will come in at -114 and basically see this line coming out with Sox a slight favorite. That's enough for me as long as they pull it off at the end. Oakland comes in dropping the Rays series at home and last night in 12 innings.

CWS -114 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.28 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 67-52-2 +34.03 units

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers.
Brett Myers against Hiroki Kuroda two right handed pitchers with losing record and both are at the bottom of money record for their team. Looking at recent form Myers is looking good the last 3 with over 20 innings of work and allowing only 3 runs on 13 hits, all three winners.
Hiroki Kuroda also pretty nice with last two and it was 3 starts ago when he couldn't get into the 4th inning in San Fransisco. Kuroda seems to have a comfort level at home in Los Angeles and definitely was in the zone last outing. Give Dodgers the sweep at home.

DODGERS -113 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 67-51-2 +35.03 units

Cincinnati Reds are taking some licking as retooling continues. Since trading Junior to Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds are 1-9 with 6 straight losers and counting. Edinson Volquez will carry the hopes of halting the slide against another team looking towards the future Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucks come off a very nice come from behind rally in a make up game against the Mets and they will give the ball to the man they got in return for X-man Nady, Jeff Karstens 2-0 with the Bucks giving up zero runs in 15 innings of work, He's a good pick up for Pittsburgh Pirates.
Even with Reds established pitcher Volquez taking the mound I look for visitors to take another step back as Bucks are showing life and they are back at the friendly confines of PNC.

PIRATES +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 66-51-2 +34.03 units

SF Giants knocked out the new look Dodgers, last 2 games of the series were 9th inning wins, and now head into Houston, out of the cool chill of SF Bay. Jonathan Sanchez 8-8 with 4.64 ERA will take the hill at Minute Maid. Sanchez has provided the second of 1-2 punch behind Tim Lincecum and he is the No#2 money pitcher on Giants rotation with his team 13-10. 7 of those wins come on the road with Jonathan recording 6-4 away, but he has lost that touch he showed in June logging 1 quality start out of last 7 with G-Men going 1-6.

Houston Astros sweep the Reds with a exclamation on the last game. Going for Houston Brandon Backe ,6-11 with 5.35 ERA, he is a bust and Astros are 9-15 when Backe is on the job. Not much to praise his recent form with 2 quality starts out of last 7 with 1-3 and 2-5 team record.

I would not back Backe in most situation, but Sanchez taking this game is a tall order. G-Men winning the Dodgers series is bit misleading as Dodgers beat Dodgers more so than Giants beating the Dodgers. Astros have not lost a game after a double digit win this season. Even with Brandon's bad home start Astros are 6-4 and he comes in on a bounce back spot.

HOUSTON -132 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 66-50-2 +35.15 units

Anthony Reyes getting another shot in the rotation with Cleveland Indians today and Jays will counter with David Purcey getting a extended look from Gaston. The change of scenery might be good for Reyes he has 2 tune ups at triple A both wins with 2.77 ERA and comes with Major league experience. Purcey is not as bad as suggested by the numbers. He has shown excellent K to BB ratio, 129 Ks to 34 BB at Syracuse with 2.69 ERA. But both pitchers are lacking Major league innings this year to forecast likely depth and quality. I like the Blue Jays based on current state of the team. Toronto are in striking distance of the Yankees in AL East and could be in the mix come September. Cleveland is evaluating players and Toronto will make their home stand count. Indians 20-38 away with lots of holes and they are weak holding to a lead.

TORONTO -112 for 1 unit(L)

Reyes was outstanding.
0-1 -1.12 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 64-50-2 +32.91 units

Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals. Third game of the series with L.A. young gun Clayton Kershaw going against Cardinals top money pitcher Kyle Lohse. Kershaw is a dangerous lefty with a good curve, good command and able to change speeds. Highly regarded kid on a fast track out of the minors. He's blanked 12 innings in last 2 games and growing confidence.
Lohse 7-1 at home 2.92 ERA with 1.05 WHIP and O/U 4-8. Bounced back nicely winning against Phillies after a clunker at Mets. This game comes after a Wednesday night when L.A. got 6 runs on 11 hits stranding 16 and Cards got 9 runs on 17 hits leaving 15 easily crushing the OVER 8.5 and today's total of 8.5 is again getting money flow to the Over 8.5 since the open.
The Over in this match up has set the tone since the first game when Under 8 collapsed in the 8th inning. But I think this Night game turn around day game give Under the advantage given decent arms and this match up is a up grade from last night.

UNDER 8.5 +114 for 1 unit(W)

Similar situation with Florida at Philadelphia. Young pitcher with bright future goes against Ace Cole Hammel. Without putting in the numbers, which is pretty good, this game will be covered by Bill Hohn behind the plate with a huge strike zone O/U 4-12

UNDER 9 +110 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.24 units

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 64-49-2 +33.91 units

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies. Jorge De La Rosa with 5-6 and 7.15 ERA who was on the cusp of being out of the rotation is a feast or famine pitcher. He has shown flashes of dazzle, but is far from quality. He holds a home win road loss record, 4-1 & 1-5, but lacks quality anywhere at 3 out of 14. Rockies have been good at home of late losing only 1 game in their last home stand 6-1. The problem is their bats have cooled since the Reds series and Nats come in hot winners of last 4 including the first game of the series knocking out Rockies Ace Cook. Nats will send John Lannan 6-11 record 3.61 ERA and this guy would have a winning record if he was pitching for a team with support. 15 quality starts out of 21 games and he is a road warrior with 11 quality starts out of 12. Looking for Nats to have pitching and offense in synch to stun the Coors Field crowd.

NATIONALS +151 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection in a late inning thriller. YTD 64-48-2 +34.91 units

Today the selection is on the late game Atlanta Braves at SF Giants. Two good arms just the way I like it and no the selection does not take the O/U.
The G-Men will send Matt Cain 6-9 3.70 ERA. He is rising with impressive July too bad it doesn't reflect team wins, 5 quality starts out of last 7 games 2.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, matter of fact much of his quality starts have gone as wasted effort. Jair Jurrgens 10-6 3.06 ERA. He has been solid and better away. Giants playing poor at home 20-34 and Atlanta poor on the road 18-35, but Jurrgens has been the money pitcher when compared to Cain.

The play is with the line movement, meaning better price was the early line, opposite of last selection against the movement.

ATLANTA +102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 63-48-2 +33.89 units

Yes I did think about Angels on Sunday, but glad that thinking didn't go far.

I'm playing the game at St Louis with visitors Philadelphia Phillies. Going outside my usual pitching angle as the arms match up should go to Todd Wellemeyer and the home team, but that's not what the line says. Opening line with visitors favorite has swung to the other side and there is something wrong with taking the Red Birds. Maybe Brett Myers turned the corner or Wellemeyer on short leash is holding the Cards line or both pitchers not factoring, but in any case Cardinals are reeling.

PHL +102 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.02 units

MLB Saturday

Wasn't that exciting? 1-0 last selection. YTD 63-47-2 +34.89 units

3 times is a charm and this one comes under the day light with two good arms. Weaver against Mussina.

This one went down the wrong way and I did not bet back in the morning to break this down. I'm going to look ahead and see if I can publish something early.

LAA +137 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday. YTD +62-47-2 +33.89 units

Staying with Angels at Bronx. Pitching match up is Ervin Santana coming off 2 consecutive losses, but he is tough on the road this season at 8-2 record pitching 8 quality starts out of 13. He looks poised to bounce back after lasting only 5 innings when he is 7 innings strong in all other July starts. Yankees Ponson has only 2 quality starts out of 9 home games, but he has managed 3-0 record with 6-3 team record. Sidney's also 7-2 life time against the Halos and getting the support of Abreau, A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Nady, Pudge and the boys. It all sounds good, but Angels still hot and Ponson is getting hit .337 to right and .304 to left bats. Santana and the Halos will make you believe.

LAA -102 for 1 unit(W)

Angels do it against Mariano Rivera and take the Yankees shut out.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-1 last selection will a small gain. YTD 61-47-2 +32.27 units

AL West marred in mediocrity does not compare to the divisions of East or Central, but there is a team dangerously balanced with pitching, defense, speed and playing opportunistic baseball.

New York Yankees at home in 2nd half is a team to behold. Starting pitchers that drive this team are Joba Chamberlain and veteran Andy Pettitte. Joba did his part in yesterday's win against Baltimore and Andy will get the ball tonight. Andy currently pitching in mid season form, 5 quality starts out of last 7 lowering his already good WHIP from 1.22 to 1.14. But I still like Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I'm not counting on Jon Garland to shut down the Yankees line up at home, but to keep thee Halos in striking distance. Garland better on the road 6-2 with 5 quality starts out of 9. Angels pen locks it down on the road with 3.18 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Yankees also stumbled against the O's while Angels roll through the East. True, Yanks can heat up at home in a New York minute, but give me the road warriors from the West beating teams their not suppose to.

LAA +162 for 1 unit(W)

The mighty Angels!
1-0 +1.62 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. 60-46-2 +32.14 units

Taking the Total at Tampa Rays at Toronto Jays with two good arms going at it. These two teams have matched up Under and recently trending Under. The number is a very low 7.5 with money moving Over.

RAYS/JAYS UNDER 7.5 at +113 for 1 unit(W)

Taking Side at White Sox at Twins. Minny is tough at home no doubt and they can certainly turn it on at Metro Dome, but White Sox taking out Detroit on the road, hitting well and one of their top pitcher taking the ball.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +109 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 +0.13 units

MLB Sunday Night

0-1 last selection. YTD 60-45-2 +33.14 units

Sidney Ponson 6-1 is a risky proposition. He looks and is hittable, but NY just takes it out of the equation. Books have heavily tipped to Bostons way with best money & quality pitcher Jon Lester 8-3, 4-1 at home with dropping ERA and WHIP in July. Boston wins 8-2 when Lester in on his job. If there was a argument to make Jon is coming off a no run game which indicates quality dip and he is facing a hot hitting team. I would not be surprised if Ponson gets hit by 36-13 at home Red Sox, but upside on Yankees is very good.

NYY +172 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 60-44-2 +35.24 units

Jair Jurrjens is a gamer. Coming off a tough start with long rest losing against Washington it was just not a good day for the Braves. Yes he logged 2 losses this month at home, other to Phillies giving up rare 3 homers, but you better know Jurrjens has a live arm. Will be get back to his June form? That's a high expectation, but I think he'll hold his own.

Kyle Kendricks coming off a bad loss in Miami on a day when his sinker had no bite. He gave up 3 HR's for the 1st time in his young career and gave up 7 RBI's on 10 hits. Another pitcher showing rust from the long rest? Kyle 5-2 record with 14-6 team record has been money all season.

Jair Jurrjens 6 quality starts out of 9 road games 3.16 ERA & 1.21 WHIP. Pitching O/U 2-7 away, 1-5 as Underdog.
Kyle Kendricks 5 quality starts out of 9 home games 4.69 ERA & 1.33 WHIP. Pitching O/U 13-7 overall, but 72% Over away vs 55% over at home
Both pitchers back on normal schedule look for them to improve in quality.

Philies have been killing the Braves 8-1 this season.
Only 2 out of 9 games were decided by 1 run.
O/U 3-6 @PHL 1-2 @ATL 2-4

Backig the Under with Total at 9.5 as Books come out all over the place. A high total in NL game

ATL/PHL UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)

All I can say is WTF. Steaked with 8.5 run cushion in the 9th and lose this shit.
0-1 -2.10 units

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. That's why you don't go against the Sharps. YTD 63-44-2 +33.10 units

What do I like off the top. Dodgers and Rocks are looking Over, but I looked at that 10.5 Total and figured the odds maker are in sink. Kuroda is average pitcher on the road and Rusch I don't trust today. He can revert to the pitcher that got shelled by Cubs and couldn't hold off the Marlins in relief. But here is the argument for Under as Dodgers saved their pitching because of that shelling they got yesterday. Dodgers pitching level will be much better than shown yesterday and even with the LA offense motoring it's not going to help that Over.

LAD/COL UNDER 10.5 at +103 for 1 unit(W)

Washington at Giants play at the Bay. They won't get much attention, but worth a risk on the Over 8.5 with money going Under. The number is bit high for games at AT&T since Giants have returned from their road trip 7/13 Total has ranged 7.5~8 and all have gone Over. There is a light rain which will slow the flight of fly balls, but still reachable. I don't foresee deep work by both starters and Nationals showing excellent OPS since the start of this road trip. Looking for small ball to exceed the number.

WAS/SFG OVER 8.5 at +111 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.14 units

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 63-43-2 +34.19 units

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins. Two young arms will go at it with Morton against the import Vandenhurk and I will admit I'm Morton bias having watched him against the Pads. Rick Vandenhurk for the Fish I do not have much opinion except he looked very hittable in the past, but that doesn't mean much today. Fish have the home advantage, prefers hitting righties, plays winning ball against division opponents and Braves are not the same team away from Atlanta.
What I've said is true Marlins should be a very good home dog, but I'm suspecting a change in Braves that almost lead me to pass on this game. Most sharps are following the winning formula with Florida at home I'll go the other way.

ATLANTA -109 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.09 units

MLB Sunday

1-0 last selection. YTD 63-42-2 +35.19 units

Counting down to the last game of the day.
Boston at Anaheim Angels. Knuckler Wakefield against Jon Garland. You know the price on Angels have been falling and that kind of stuff catches my eyes. I normally like to play the favs with dropping price, but I'm going with Boston today. Wakefield has been pitching deep and they stranded 12 base runners yesterday unable to hold the lead. Sox has hit Garland well and inconsistent as Boston maybe they are a tough bunch to sweep even on the road.

BOSTON +107 for 1 unit(L)

Had a bad feeling after taking the lead. Almost took Angels in-Game at +212, but failed to pull the trigger.

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 to start after the All Star break. YTD 62-42-2 +34.19 units

Going to National League game where our focus will be Milwaukee Brewers at San Fransisco Giants, Matt Cain pitching well lately and that has soaked into the wagering crowd. Line has reversed as the consensus majority take the Brewers on the road with their new weapon at hand.
Brew weaker away, 21-26, but not as bad as 17-28 home for G-Men. The thing about these reverse line movement originally start with Home team value play and I think this one is getting off loaded close to game time. It never hit that magical mark of 75%+ public on Milwaukee.

MILWAUKEE -119 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

0-2 last selection. YTD 61-42-2 +33.19 units

This is one of those games where the line opened with even match up, a slight Tigers favor as visitors, but players have leaned on Detroit only to see the line move to Baltimore before returning to Detroit. The pitching match up will see the "Gambler" coming in at 6-6 completing 114.2 innings 11 quality starts out of 19, 6 of them at home and 5 away, the difference being Tigers at home 6-3 and away 3-7. Still Rogers should get good deal of backers as he has been eating innings and Baltimore is on the slide. Garrett Olson 6-4 has only 4 quality starts out of 14, but has no defeat at home 3-0 with O's winning 4-2. He does have the momentum against him with 1 quality start out of last 7 with WHIP climbing to .176 Although Orioles are hitting 24 runs in last 3 games they have also gave 20 runs. Olson to keep dodging bullets is unlikely at best. Tigers to improve in Baltimore.

DETROIT -103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 61-40-2 +36.23 units

Going on the same game as last night. Atlanta at San Diego
Campillo against Wolf in the rubber match and watching these two teams go head to head I just can't help thinking "All these pitchers in all these games are outstanding", but it's not all pitching it's the lack of offense making the pitchers look better. It's a perfect baseball day in San Diego or shall I say Pitching day at PetCo Park. We might even get some shadows in the batter box and behind the home plate Brian Knight O/U 5-14 calling strikes and balls.
Campillo comes in O/U 2-7 and Wolf 4-14. Taking the low Under.

ATL/SDP UNDER 7.5 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

Colorado at New York Mets
Heading into Flushing where Mets are mighty and on a roll. No doubt New York is the hottest team right now and Rockies will need to throw the kitchen sink to give these boys a run for their money. Redman at 2-4 is 50% Rox are 3-6 at 50% on the road and games are going Over 7-2, 3-0 away. Michael Pelfrey is pitching well and has been a winner, but it has not equaled Under as he is getting tons of run support. He's also coming off 3 hit no run game which is about good as it gets and that usually reverses a bit in this spot.

COL/NYM OVER 9 at +113 for 2 units(L)

0-2 -3.04 units

MLB Saturday

0-1 yesterday. YTD 61-39-2 +37.31 units

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres.
Bravos send young Charlie Morton in this spot to work around 6 innings or so with minimum damage and he can do that. On the other side is the old veteran crafty Maddux he's been hit looking at the last 3 games, but at home he has been quality. Coming off at strong home performance against Marlins, although a loss, Greg and the Pads look to take 2 from Braves today. Braves woeful on the road with bats not finding timely hits are 3-7 in last 10 games.

SAN DIEGO -108 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.08 units

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday going into the weekend. YTD 61-38-2 +38.31 units

St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates. This will feature Kyle Lohse for the red birds pitching a fine season and Zack Duke alternating wins and losses at 50% 9-9 team record. Zack coming off a bad start is likely to bounce back here at home where his quality starts are 6 out of 9 with Bucs edging 5-4. A small edge as that maybe Cards bats have gone quiet and much is expected from Lohse today, but if there's a misleading number it's his road performance to team win ratio.
His quality start is lacking on the road with 3 out of 8, but team has taken 5-3. Such will not be the case today at PNC if Lohse can not carry the load. He does come in with momentum 5-1 June and Cards are tough against division opponents, but let's take the Bucs to show up today.

PITTSBURGH +113 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 yesterday. YTD 60-38-2 +37.31 units

Baltimore O Birds at Rogers Center in Toronto. These two teams may not matter much in what's shaping up to be the race for AL East, but look for a good match up. Today's arms are Jeremy Guthrie looking for a third straight win overall and a second straight defeat of the Blue Jays against Journeyman southpaw John Parrish starting against his former team for the first time. Can't say how Parrish will hold up tonight, but Jays bats sure look live. Jeremy Guthrie pitches quality game, but too many holes on the road for Baltimore to support. Blue Jays are 2008 disappointment, but there are too many talents to slide and fade away. Feeling some boost from Toronto look for Jays to make their stand taking this one in decisive fashion.

TORONTO -111 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Wednesday

1-0 yesterday even with the rain delay. YTD 59-38-2 +36.31 units

Going with my home team Dodgers at the Ravine. Yeah, Braves has L.A.'s number for awhile, but Dodgers have been taking series and Atlanta has been sliding. Will the tide change with Hudson on the mound? I'll say, No, L.A. take this to take the Home Atlanta series and Lowe to get the win.

DODGERS -103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 58-38-2 +34.98 units

Pittsburgh Pirates don't conjure image of high powering offense, but that what they are this season and defense being crap the Bucs have come up big as the premiere Over team of 2008. Current O/U records 53-30-5 averaging 10.5 runs per game. Getting the ball will be Ian Snell returning from D/L without any minor league tune up he'll be on a close watch. On the flip side Brandon Backe very hard to read, but I'd say he'll improve from his last outing maybe record a quality start or close to it. All in all this game on the surface has the look of bats lighting up the scoreboard, but the Bucs protect their home turf better, pitchers pitch better and Backe is UNDER machine. The selection I'm getting to is fading the obvious Over as the number has climbed from 9.5 to 10 and I don't think it'll reach 10 so taking the risk at 9.5 UNDER.

HOU/PIT UNDER 9.5 at +133 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 57-38-2 +33.69 units

What's happening Players? Hope everyone is coming off a winning weekend.
Today the game is New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies. Pedro, not as threatening, will enter a tough division rivalry against always dangerous Phillies. Mets maybe looking to take this series on the road, but 2 out of 3 was very close. Eaton is also good at home with 4 out of 4 quality starts. So what's not to like the home team today? Since the Atlanta series Phillies offensive production is falling from 8 - 7 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 2, leading to today OPS is down .300 and although Pedro may look hittable the right bat advantage goes to the Mets. Pedro stock is down, but value rates much better than Adam Eaton. Look to sneak this one by the streaky Phillies.

METS +129 for 1 unit(W)

Told ya we sneak this by, lol.
1-0 +1.29 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 56-38-2 +32.44 units

Taking Doc Halladay on the road in Anahiem Big A. Struggling Jays are facing Big John Lackey formidable Ace of the Angels. Lackey has been consistently quality in every start, undefeated in June and he is the Ace in every way, but Doc coming off a 9 inning performance is commanding in the West where as Lackey giving up 0 runs may give a little in this spot.

BLUE JAYS +125 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.25 units

MLB Happy 4th of July

1-0 last selection and Happy July 4th to all, even if your not celebrating U.S. Independence day, enjoying the great American pastime. YTD 55-38-2 +30.44 units

Keeping it short and sweet. We like Minny at home, Indians come into the Dome at the wrong time and Cleveland just not ready to go toe to toe right now. If your feeling adventurous take the -1.5 runline as you will have a very good edge to take this in a blowout.

MIN -125 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 54-38-2 +29.04 units

This selection comes after a long winning run at home KCR fumbles in Camden Yards. If you feel the way I do Royals bats are finding the ball again. O's might be formidable at home, but this price seems little too steep. Starters will not factor in outcome as the bats will do the talking today.

KAN +140(W)

1-0 +1.40 units

MLB Wednesday

0-2 last selection. YTD 53-38-2 +27.88 units

Fading Arizona at home playing against the Brewers. I'm not considering much weight on today's starters Seth McClung and Yusmeiro Petit they're pretty much a wash. NL West is full of mediocrity more about teams going cold than hot. That's the theory for today's selection.
Brewers and take the plus money.

BREWERS +116 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.16 units

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-36-2 +29.88 units

Rockies struggle continue and losses are mounting at 5 straight. Not one of those loss have been less than 1.5 meaning Run Line would of taken it on the chin for 5 straight too. Jimenez got rocked for 15 hits and Rox went on to lose decisively 7-1 at Detroit. Is there anything in their course of demise give this team a small shinning light? Jeff Francis is a shadow of last year's pitcher, 6 quality starts out of 16, did not last 5 innings last start and gave up 2 long balls. Jeff is only averaging 25% wins away so any consideration on bunch of guys from Denver maybe money out the window. Before casting the stone let's look at the Tigers. Detroit 23-17 winning record at home is still minus on money wagered with the price they command. They win against Lefties 14-5, but 29-23 as favorite is still red in the money. OK, I'm looking at value to probability and in general principle it's only a tool that tells me Tigers are not winning enough to cover the juice....Wait, That's a funny statement considering Rockies have bled red across every category I track. Many times in this game reasonable logic is just a self reassurance of what's already a "given" in your mind, Verlander is the biggest money loser in Tigers rotation equal to Jeff with 25% quality starts. Fading the 75% or higher Detroit concensus and look for Rox to steal one in a stunner in Detroit.

COLORADO ROCKIES +167 for 1 unit(L)

Baltimore O's at Washington Nationals
Nats have won 2 in a row and they will hand the ball to John Lannan, 4-8, but pitching quality starts. What a shame it's not showing on his record. It's alright combined with O's Garrett Olson who can use a good outing and he's pretty good keeping the game Under.

BAL/WAS UNDER 8.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Friday

Pushed last selection. YTD 53-35-2 +31.02 units

Angels at Dodgers Freeway series are here. First game I'm taking the Angels with Joe Saunders on the mound taking on Chan Ho Park and the Dodgers at the Ravine. Chan Ho has shown flashes of dazzling pitches I'm not sold on that and Dodgers are not clicking right now. It's the home field disadvantage when road tested Angels give the ball to Saunders and we should take the first game away.

ANGELS -114 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.14 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-35-1 +31.02 units

All games have started except for this one.
Texas at Houston in battle of Texas. I know the score is supposed to be low or below 9. That's on the high side Wandy's at home and Milwood is pitching good, but keep in mind the shortest left field next to Fenway and low fence to the right, designed for HR robbing catches in mind, not to forget the hill in center field with a pole in play. Definitely made for outfielders to work.
Let's tag this one Over the number it'll be unexpected.

TEX/HOU OVER 9 at +110 for 1 unit(Push)

MLB Wednesday

0-2 yesterday both late inning collapse, but D Backs stuck it to me blowing 4 runs in bottom of 8th. Everybody gets moosed sometime.
YTD 53-34-1 +32.14 units

Like Rox playing in Kansas City. Them Royals are ripping the inter league, but got to consider the two arms on the mound. Aaron Cook is the force behind Rockies today and he is a force to be reckoned with 9-4 and Rox are 11-5 when he goes to work. Cook has been by far the biggest Rockies money maker and 11 quality starts out of 16, 6 out of 9 road. Rox are 6-3.
Royals are hot no doubt and they are feasting on NL teams 11-3 winning 9-1 last 10 games, but Luke Hochevar is the weak link he is the one loss out of last 10 and limited quality starts, but has improved recently with 2 quality starts back to back before going 4 innings. The way I measure KC made some mini run, this one best by far, but they are over achieving at this point and they are still under .500 at home. Rockies may not be any better, but June has been productive taking LA series, Milwaukee series, Giants series, White Sox series and Indians series before blowing Mets series. Now they are going to drop KC series I'm taking Rox to salvage one game.

ROCKIES -112 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.12 units

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 53-32-1 +34.14 units

Selection #1
When I look at NL East standing and see Phillies at top all I could recall in recent games was the 20 runs scored against poor Cards at St Louis on 6/13. How the tide turns, since than the offensive powerhouse Phillies have gone 1-7. Where the offensive power? I'm not going to ponder that question, but I do know Jamie Moyer has been pitching in mid season form, 5 quality out of 7 road starts 4-1 record with Phillies going 6-1, and he is no stranger to AL West. Oakland will counter with Joe Blanton the moneyline pit, 3-10 and A's are 4-12 when Joe in on the hill, taking the ball. He's got 5 quality start out of 10 home games and win less in June, but that last start in Zona was a rarity. He'll most likely bounce back at home and eat up innings as he always have with 2 N/D out of all starts and 10 games with 2 runs or less 6 games are 1 run. What I don't like with Joe is that he has allowed HR's in 7 consecutive games and just an improvement over his last start may not do the trick.

PHILADELPHIA +103(L)

Selection #2
Playing Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox. Snakes slither under a rock and oh how they have come down to earth. Everyone said they can't stay hot so now there's "I told you" guys all over the place. Back under the radar and stock is looking mighty fat, but "it's Boston at home" you say. They beat them yesterday in the battle of pitchers duel and the Snakes rather do it again with their arm than with their bats. Doug Davis is returning to form and last two starts were pretty good sign. He's had his clunkers on the road, but he's lacked innings under his belt. This will be interesting with Masterson having quality starts and on the money at home, but since he last pitched in Philadelphia 6/18 last day of the road trip Red Sox have dropped 3 out of 4 back in Fenway. Strike out count has been high since coming home, but so are the hits given up and now we come full circle back to Masterson. Red Sox highly expected to stop the skid today, but not if Davis and company can help it.

DIAMONDBACKS +166(L)
With the win within grasp.... WTF
0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 52-32-1 +33.14 units

Backing Big Ben on the road against one of the best home team Atlanta Braves. They've been carrying that label for awhile now, 27-12, but look beyond their recent road trip and you'll see that Phillies swept them before their trip with losing streak running through Chicago series for 6 consecutive losses. Jo Jo stopped the skid and the Braves went 4-3 the rest of the way before taking the Seattle series back at home. On this sampling losing streak started at home and ended on the road. What am I getting at? Maybe the home advantage road disadvantage is over blown here with Jo-Jo Reyes back at Turner. He's only 16.7% quality starts at home, although Braves have 4-2 record when he starts and he has thrown 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts, his recorded home win is way back in 5/18. Visiting Brew crew winning 7 out of last 10 has a head of steam with Ben Sheets perfect on the road and team record of 7-2, but again this team is labeled as losers on the road. Let's buck the over announced trend and go will Brewers at Turner.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -114 for 1 unit(W)

SOP *standard operating procedure.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

2-1 last selection. YTD 52-31-1 +34.19 units

Going with a Over looking game that maybe too high to reach. The game is Baltimore at Milwaukee Brewers. I do not doubt the strength of Brewers home game and Garret Olson may not be what you consider a quality pitcher, but I have to think the upside of Olson is greater in this game. Manny Parra is pitching a great game of late and has shined at home. Also combined with O's away O/U 17-22 and Brews 15-21-1 home Unders. Brew crew hitting the weak side .249 at home dropping to .229 against lefties. We should also get a good strike zone with Edward Montague calling strikes and balls. The risk is late inning scoring with both pens being a liability. Even so the ceiling is high today.

BAL/MIL UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Getting too fine, but if I had to do it over I'd go Under. The problem today was playing the wrong selection.

0-1 -1.05 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 50-30-1 +33.19 units

Pirates may have squeezed one past the sinking Blue Jays with Cito back on the helm, but don't be sold on Pirates yet. So they are formidable at home 22-15 with pretty good offensive numbers. Paul Maholm definitely better at home has a record of 3-1 and team record of 6-2. You'll also see Bucks have won 4 of his last 5 starts, have I sold you on Pittsburgh yet?
Blue Jays have been laying eggs on the road to the tune of 17-23. These inter league games have yielded 1 win out of last 7, and that win was way back in 6/13. It's also the second goose egg in 4 days away from Roger Center. So what do you think?
Backing Jesse Litsch even with his 2 losses out of 3, all three were team losses, as this game looks due for the Jays? I think they'll score some runs and Bucks will score some runs sending this match up Over the Total of 8 at PNC, that's the play.

TOR/PIT OVER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Joe Saunders and the Halos to stick another to Bret Myers and the Phillies. Just rolling with the AL West powerhouse road warriors playing in their element. Not only that betting plus money.

Angels +110 for 1 unit(W)

Pedros looking interesting as a underdog. Colorado at home with Jimenez does not threaten. Taking Mets at Coors.

Mets +103 for 1 unit(L)

Not bad, but I guess I pushed with 3 selections. Besides Mets with Pedro was very un-clutch like play.
2-1 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection fading the sliding Cards at home. YTD 49-30-1 +32.19 units

Nailing another yesterday our game is running 4-1 last 5, 8-2 last 10. It's all good and weekend will be upon us to sink your teeth into some base running, fists pumping, knee buckling great game of ours.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim playing the inter league at Philadelphia Phillies. Ervin Santana with a fantastic 8-3 record, but Angels have failed him losing 3 of his N/D games making the team record 8-6 when he takes the hill. He is also showing little cracks with his last outing not getting past the 6th inning. Opposing Adam Eaton has been quality with not much to show for. His 2-4 record is misleading considering his ability to stay consistent and pitch deep. Phillies are 7-7 when he takes the mound and that number tells me he is better than his record, but team is not supporting. Which brings me to taking the Under at this so called "hitter friendly" Citizens Bank park with Eaton being a Under machine, 12-1 Under 6-0 at home. Santana is poised to improve and give a quality performance, but with the cracks showing taking the Angels may not produce the end result. I do like the Total to fall below and Angels don't hit well after a day of rest.

LAA/PHL UNDER 9.5 at -115 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection, Dodgers stopping their skid. YTD 48-30-1 +31.19 units

Late posting alert.
Bring you a inter league action today with KC at St Louis. Off the top, KC rolling through Inter league at 6-2. They are looking to sweep the Cards on this afternoon match up. Zack Greinke is pitching much better, he's 10 quality out of 14 starts, 5 out of 5 quality at home & 5 out 9 on the road. The team has dropped his last 3, Zack taking the loss on 2 of them, but still had the poise of high level pitcher when I saw his last game. Brad Thompson I saw in Houston and don't have a big impression from him except for the fact he came in against the slumping Astros team and recorded N/D. He is a ground ball pitcher, which I like, but getting depth might be a issue.
Yes, it really tough to sweep away in the Majors, but it does happen and Cards are riddled with missing players.

KCR -106 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah baby!
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 47-30-1 +30.12 units

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds.
Tonight's match up will feature two good young arms, Chad Billingsly and Johnny Cueto, both right handed pitchers making themselves known. Johnny Cueto with 79 innings under his belt has 50% quality starts, 62.5 at home and 3 wins out of last 4 starts. There is a pitch count issue along with long balls he's given up in last 3 starts.
Chad has thrown 77 innings, 40% quality starts, little better on the road at 50%, but not all is his doing with lacking run support. Dodgers are sliding and they're 13-23 away, 3-7 in last 10 games where as Reds are golden at home 21-14. So my thoughts on this game? Dodgers even with their consecutive losses and bad road record have the better product on the filed and Reds being offense oriented team which has cooled off has too many holes in their defense. Reds does hold the big bat advantage, but that's a risk I will have to take.

DODGERS +107 for 1 unit(W)

Didn't lose a beat.
1-0 +1.07 units

MLB Wednesday

1-0 last night. YTD 46-30-1 +29.12 units

Sitting in a hotel room here in Houston looking forward to Wednesday matinee at Minute Maid park. Stinking hot and humid not too pleasant June in Texas some rain would be nice. At least I'm not here on my dollar and I will make a best of this trip.

Off the top, I think Brew crew takes the series away, Sheets coming off a mile high win will have his curve back in his arsenal. Brian Moehler pitched his best game this season and he may revert to a 5 inning pitcher. Brew Crew rising and Astros slipping.

MIL -128 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-1 last selection. YTD 45-30-1 +28.12

It has been 10 days since my last confession. There's nothing wrong with my game. I've had my share of losses, but winners out number them. I do this religiously and have been doing it for long long time, but I must admit I'm no writer. I'm considering going to video and maybe I could have real time conversation with some you guys out there. Just thinking out loud, but something I would really like to do.

Los Angeles Dodgers are in San Diego playing game 2 of the series winning the 1st and snapping the Padres 5 game win streak. That win streak is decieving with 4 of those games being a 2-1 low scoring 1 run win. That's not comforting, while Randy Wolfe's coming off a good game against the Mets, he has been pitching quality at home. The other side, Billingsly's coming off a shaky start and he is likely to improve. I'd say from the way this is shaping up in this cavernous PetCo park the game stays Under the Total. Dodgers on the road is less threatening and Padres have offensive issues. Books opened with U7 bias with late Over pressure bring the price back close to even. I'll take the call on Books being correct.

LAD/PAD UNDER 7 at 110 for 1 unit(W)

Another day at the office.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 44-29-1 +28.12 units

If you waited around for Sunday games I apologize there was no insight on my part to publish anything in time.

Let's move on to Monday. Dodgers having played a dismal road trip now returns to Los Angeles. You know that New York to Los Angeles flight must of felt long after dropping the 2 run lead and end up losing 2-3 on Saturday and getting spanked on Sunday late card finishing the trip 1-6.
Derek Lowe will take the mound to right the ship and he has been pitching well, much better than his Rockies opponent Greg Reynolds 0-2, but I suspect a lack of Dodgers punch to keep Rox in striking range. Looking for good ground ball numbers from Lowe he is pitching 1.09 WHIP at home. Reynolds 7.94 ERA away and last 3 starts 5.09 ERA is crap, but he imploded in his last start 5/28 @PHL giving up 6 runs and likely to improve facing time lagged Dodgers.

ROCKIES/DODGERS UNDER 8 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

New York Mets complete a very nice home stand and now they are in the West taking on the fighting SF Giants. Jonathan Sanchez getting the start has been tough as of late stringing 3 quality starts not to forget Giants have winning record of 8-3 with Sanchez starting. But I don't like his high pitch count, Mets hitting lefties better and he's a fly ball pitcher with wind picking up at the Bay. Oliver Perez starting for NY simply goes Over, Giants also hitting lefties better.

METS/GIANTS OVER 8.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
FYI : This Total has moved to 8U -106

1-1 +0.00 units

MLB Saturday

2-0 yesterday bring the YTD 43-29-1 +26.99 units.

Weekend baseball under the sun.
Michael Pelfrey 2-6 has a bad rep stringing two sub-par starts. He lasted 4 innings in both games throwing tons of pitches. But you know "what happened" doesn't always lead to "What will happen" and I don't think he'll factor into this game maybe get to the 6th or better. Total collapse at his point without some kind of health problem is not probable. He's had bad games, but he's also bounced back and his last quality start was a wasted effort, 5/15 against Washington at home, not to mention that was the second consecutive home quality start, 5/10 Cincy, making Michael's start combined with Mets home edge a interesting matinee wager.
The other side of the coin is surging Chad Billingsly and the Dodgers who snapped their 4 game losing streak with Russel Martin coming alive. Dodgers current road trip 1-4 include the St Louis series before the trip 2-6, Mets are better since coming home.

NEW YORK METS +113 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.13 units

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 41-29-1 +24.69 units

Coming to end of May there have been enough games to sort through statistical numbers. Maybe too many numbers to make meaningful information distorted. It's always good to keep the numbers as comparable to current data. Season average vs recent average of 3 to 5 games as a indication of rise or decline and keep it simple.

Give credit to Tampa Bay their winning ways at home. They're 21-10 at home with 5-2 playing 7 games at home, 5/23 to5/29, the standout number of 69 hits catches my attention.
Even with such lofty number there is a pattern of fluctuation and recent home stand facing Baltimore and Texas Runs increased from 2 to 11 declined to 5 and it's been sliding slow from there. I think it's a sign of cooling runs. White Sox will send the big Cuban and Rays will send their work horse Shields. It looks Under to me.
WHITE SOX/RAYS UNDER 8 at -120 for 1 unit(W)

Toronto is a team heating up in their course of Western road trip and Angels with Weaver on the mound would seem better than McGowan and the Jays. But tonight Angels coming off a rest I expect things to get going a bit slower. This is no time to blink with Jays getting hot.

TORONTO +130 for 1 unit(W)

Domo Arigato
2-0 +2.30 units

MLB Thursday

Coming off a 2-0 with a very nice take home. YTD 41-28-1 +25.79 units

Doc was sitting down A's and Rich was just as good in last night's pitching duel. We are set for another round under the day light Jesse Litsch shut down the Royals in his last outing and he is excelling at 6-1. I like Oakland pitcher today too, Eveland 0.94 ERA at home, making this game a day time UNDER

UNDER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.10 units

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 39-28-1 +20.21 units

Playing the late game on Thursday night at the Anaheim Stadium, the Big A is a beautiful park just ways from Disneyland. Joe Saunders and the Angels will be hosting the struggling Detroit Tigers. Pitching for Detroit will be a tough Venezuelan righty, Armando Galarraga 3-2 3.70 ERA, tougher on the road and right hand bats are getting nothing at .132 even with couple of bad May outing the trouble will not be the pitching tonight. This proud team is not going to lay down and get swept. Here is the combination big play selection.

TIGERS +129 for 2 units(W)
ANGELS/TIGERS UNDER 9 at -104 for 3 units(W)

2-0 +5.58 units

MLB Tuesday

1-0 yesterday. YTD 39-27-1 +21.21 units

Went to the mountains over this past weekend getting back just in time to put up the White Sox winner and I think I'll take them again. Mark Buehrle might seem tough to read with 2-5, team record 4-6, and couple of bad outings in May, but he is quality pitcher 60% when he takes the mound. Aaron Laffey has been impressive in May stringing 4 quality starts pitching into the 7th inning in all of those starts allowing 2 earned runs in 28 innings.
The 2 runs came against Chicago in 1-3 loss and this will be the second time around. Not a Cleveland hater just following White Sox dominance with Indians sliding offense.

WHITE SOX +134 for 1 unit(L)

Lost with Chicago, but will ride them again tomorrow and see you guys Thursday.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Memorial Day

1-0 last selection. YTD 38-27-1 +20.21 units

Javier Vasquez taking the mound against Paul Byrd and the Indians. Vasquez is the Man for the South Siders and there should have full confidence with his presence. Byrd pitching on and off, but even if he's on his game White Sox still have the edge.

WHITE SOX +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 units

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday with last 7 going 5-1-1 good week in any cappers book.
YTD 37-27-1 +19.15 units

We are having some strange weather in the Los Angeles area. There was a tornado in Inland Empire and the day has gone from hot to cold. Will it have some impact on tonight's game at Chavez? I don't think the balls will have much lift and should help Lowe. Derek Lowe does not much to show this May, but he is at his best at home and veteran Right Hander is capable of bouncing back. On the other side Adam Wainwright has been fantastic at home, but out of his element on the road. He is coming off 2 consecutive sub par outing and his M.O. has been one run games. I view tonight as a bounce back game for both pitchers.

STL/LAD UNDER 8 at +106 for 1 unit(W)

Told ya, low scoring 1 run game.
1-0 +1.06 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 36-27-1 +18.15 units.

Good afternoon Baseball handicappers.
Angels are in Toronto with two good arms, Santana vs Burnett, and that's what I'm going to expect, good pitching. Ervin Santana, 6-1 with 2.97 ERA, with his road troubles from last season in his rear view Angels are winning behind Santana and O/U stands at 1-6. Burnett wins and losses maybe 50%, but he has been a work horse.

UNDER 8 at +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Wedensday

Selection record year to date: 35-27-1 +17.15 units

Working the daily grind today I'll take another day game at the bay. Tampa at Oakland is a good match up of the under paid. Backing Oakland at home with Eveland to stop the Rays.

OAKLAND -109 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

I took Oakland off last nigh because the publishing's came after game start. It happens and if A's didn't score in the 1st inning I might of let it go, but no play. FYI the final was a Tampa win.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
John Maine vs Tom Glavine
John is in mid season form. In May he has been lights out 3-0 with 1.77 ERA and lefties can not touch him. If your searching for pitfalls he gives a bit on the road and under day light. Braves can be troublesome 9-5 during the day and when that happens at home 7-0. They're also a bit tough at home in general 16-5, matter of fact it's the best in NL. Chipper is on fire hitting 34 out of 40 games leading the majors in hitting average and Glavine takes the ball.
You know what I'll take Atlanta.

BRAVES +121 for 1 units(W)

1-0 +1.21 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection as Rays could not hold the lead. YTD 35-27-1 +17.15 units.

Oakland A's at home with Blanton defending their field against Tampa Bay Rays and their big gun Shields. We will welcome the surging Rays as they cross the time zones. Joe may not have the wins, but don't let the number fool you he has been quality and his team mates know it. Shields bit weaker on the road. Go with the home team.


**OAKLAND +103 for 1 unit**

Sorry this play did not make it out on time.

MLB Sunday

1-0 on my big selection. YTD 35-26-1 +18.21 units.

It's Sunday Baseball. You know I been watching these like a hawk since the lines opened, but hadn't pulled the trigger. Day game today with Rays at Cards and this one is coming up fast.
Backing Rays with Jackson on the mound and fading Lohse. Got plenty more to hang this game on just not enough time. You guys study the card and see what I see, but that's all I have to say for now.

RAYS -106 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.06 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 34-26-1 +15.21 units

The battle of Ohio takes place at the Great American Ballpark. Name alone tells you this field is about the game not the commercialism. Replacing the old Riverfront Stadium this place is recognized as a hitter friendly park. Just two nights ago against the Marlins game UNDER was jelling fast when 6 runs were given up at the top of 9th sailing OVER the Total. Matter of fact Reds racked up 20 runs in that 3 game series and gave up 16. How about last night with 5 HRs, but for all the highlight homers and big run games that's so memorable in this park truth to the myth is the home record stands UNDER at O/U 7-11. Which sets up the Cleveland series with Indians top in defense, 3rd in AL Total UNDER. Indians will send Fausto Carmona 4-1 with 2.40 ERA. He is coming off a shutout of Blue Jays and has 5 quality starts out of 8. He does give a bit more on the road, but May has brought 2 straight wins making it 4 wins out of last 5 Indians have finished with a win. Aaron Harrang 2-5 with 3.32 ERA tough luck pitcher with 7 quality starts out of 9. He eats innings and holds very good home WHIP of 1.029. Totals reflect his outing with little support O/U 2-7, at home O/U 1-4. With two good pitchers matching up we will have a generous strike zone with Tom Hallion behind the plate O/U 3-7. This match up comes on Indians Away O/U 5-11 and Reds Home O/U 7-11-2. This will be the first 3 units wager for this season.

UNDER 8.5 at -106 for 3 units(W)

This one is in the bank.
1-0 +3.00 units

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 33-26-1 +13.21 units

No post for yesterday. Games are getting choppy, but I like the chaos feel to the match ups and mix in some inter-league for some sure fire bangs. Baseball logic says games between unfamiliar teams should have pitching advantage and games played on NL field will eliminate the DH.


Atlanta Braves are sending Jair Jurrjens, RHP 4-3 with 3.10 ERA, pitching much better of late last 5 out of 6 has been quality and he is 3-0 at home 1.96 ERA 1.20 WHIP. That WHIP has fallen to 0.89 in last 3 games and Under is strong at O/U 1-7 stringing 7 in a row.
Oakland Athletics counter with Dana Eveland, LHP 3-3 with 3.23 ERA, on the road 1-3 with 4.88 ERA 1.25 WHIP, who looks weaker on paper, but has given A's 5-3 team record with 50% quality starts coming in with 2 quality starts in a row. Under is perfect at O/U 0-7.
Both Pitchers will be working with weaker side of the bat. Atlanta hitting .256 against LHP last 10 vs Oakland hitting .220 against RHP last 10.
Both teams trending UNDER Atlanta O/U 1-8-1 and Oakland O/U 2-7-1.

UNDER 8.5 at -112 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

MLB Wednesday

1-1 last selection. YTD 33-25-1 +14.21 units

No play Tuesday and back with the skinny on Wednesday. If your not up to date with best bet in Baseball it's the Florida Marlins. They're at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati Ohio taking on Bronson Arroyo and the Reds. Outside of Volquez pitching phenomenal ball at home, he pitched yesterday beating Hendrickson, Reds are not considered big threat and Arroyo at home is not scary at all. Ricky Nolasco getting the ball in a nice underdog spot poised to beat the Reds on the road.

FLA +122 for 1 unit(L)

Had the mark of a great come back, but it was not to be.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection. YTD 32-24-1 +13.81 units.

Looking at PPD games from Sunday. Toronto at Cleveland is a Double Header today with early game slated for AJ Burnett for the Blue Jays and Carmona for the Indians. Burnett is 3-3 with 5.19 ERA 1.62 WHIP when he takes the start Toronto is 4-4, but better away than at home with 2-1 with 3.04 ERA 1.28 WHIP. Fausto Carmona is 3-1 with 2.95 ERA 1.79 WHIP at home he is 2-1 with 2.28 ERA 1.61 WHIP. Cleveland exploded for 12 runs on Saturday while giving up 0 and Friday 6 runs while giving 1 against the Blue Jays. So Jays have been out scored 18-1 in this series so far including a knockout of Toronto Ace Halladay. Is there any reason to go against the Indians on this game? Yes, Carmona is having control issues, outside Detroit outing 4/17 he's walked minimum 4, and not factoring into decision. AJ does not have good history with Cleveland, but I think he comes in pretty strong after that 14K outing.

TORONTO +134 for 1 unit(L)

Taking Minnesota at home with Livan Hernandez taking the mound. These pesky Twins are not so easy to put away even for Boston Red Sox.

TWINS +140 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.40 units

MLB Mother's Day

HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY TO ALL YOU BEAUTIFUL MOTHERS.
1-0 last selection. YTD 31-23-1 +12.52 units.
Hope to bring you the Mother Load tonight.

Already won Rays, Rays&Angels Over 9.5, A's&Rangers Over 8 and will conclude my evening on this play.
Boston Red Sox (Wake) at Minnesota Twins (Black)
Backing the Under in this match up. Both pitchers come in trending Under and match up dictates Under. Top it off with Under ump behind the plate. Twins also play Red Sox pretty tight and close moneyline credits Twins at Home.

BOS/MIN UNDER 9 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
TWINS +118 for 2 units(W)

The day was much than published.
1-1 +1.29 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection and rolling the last several days. YTD 30-23-1 +11.52 units

Baltimore O at Kansas City Royals. O Birds getting a little better in KC as they have been doing to the Royals for awhile. It's tough to sweep especially on the road and Tomko showing flashes of big league stuff, but it's the Royals regressing when they need to tough up. That's what I think will happen and Orioles take this going away.

BALTIMORE +100 for 1 unit(W)

Not exactly a sweep yet there's another game for Mother's day.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 29-23-1 +10.38 units

Some would say runs produced by SF Giants is mostly by luck and G-Men themselves are their own worst enemy. They return to the Bay going 1-5 on this dismal road trip only to face NL East powerhouse Phillies practically waiting in the West. Phillies have split AZ series and won SFG series before that at home now Cole Hamels gets the ball. Giants will counter with Patric Misch, LHP with limited big league play. He does come with Lefty specialist credentials, but how far will he go and how much does the Giants have left after that road trip? I'd say not many would be surprised if Giants gets shut down or if Misch gets chased, but this is second look of Cole @PHL 5/04 and Patric @PHL 5/02, both won by Phillies both Over. For this game Phillies are a very expensive Road favorites and 1 run losses have become G-Men signature making the Phils Runline unattractive. What does look intriguing is the low Total 7.5 hung on this game and strange things have happened when the wind is blowing. I'm still watching this, but anticipated Under looks premature. Gust is picking up toward center and left field swirling in the outfield.

PHL/SFG OVER 7.5 at +114 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.14 units

MLB Thursday

2-0 last selection. YTD 28-23-1 +8.38 units

Baltimore O (Daniel Cabrera) at Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar)
O Birds coming limping into KC losers 5 out of last 5 where the Royals beat the AL West contender Angels in last game 9-4 salvaging 1 out of 3 series which was encouraging given they had taken the Cleveland series on the road with one game PPD, but let's face it this game is not going to get much interest. Gauging wagering public's interest it gets around 1279 compared to PHL/ARZ getting 1664. Does it mean anything? It means the game flys under the radar and line movement is limited staying close to odds makers projected divide. Players are not trusting Baltimore on the road even with edge on head to head match ups and Luke Hochevar is bit of an unknown rookie reliever inserted into the rotation top it off there is 30% chance of thunder storm. All good reasons to move on to other games, but if the game plays out Hockevar has given KC more than what they asked for stringing two quality wins and if he regresses the pen is stocked. Daniel Cabrera coming off a loss and ND before that, but still pitching strong with 5 straight quality start. These two teams both come in O/U 3-7 and that Under stands to improve.

BAL/KCR UNDER 8.5 at -113 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 26-23-1 +6.20 units

I like more games than what I'd like to play. It's a all day Baseball making hard to lay off, but the way to go is do the home work early make the plays and go about your other business, if you have other business, forget about the games or too many games. I'm going to cut out early and go to the Dodgers game.

The game in Los Angeles is a pretty good match up. Penny looks to sweep NYM and by-the-book says to play the no sweep with visiting Mets. Too bad Dodgers haven't been following the script. They haven't won 9 out of last 10 by losing when they were supposed to they've done just the opposite and I wouldn't go against them. I will ride the bats today and though it's a cool day with clouds, not much wind, kind of day when pitchers thrive, Penny is taking the mound and Dodgers always bring their bat when Big Bad Brad gets the ball.

Dodgers failed to bring their bats, but no matter.
METS/DODGERS OVER 8.5 +115 for 1 unit(W)

Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees is a match up of stingy arms in American League plain and simple. This Total is low as it can go in AL in May, but worth the risk with these two pitchers taking the mound.

INDIANS/YANKEES UNDER 8 +103 for 1 unit(W)

Thanks I needed that.
2-0 +2.18 units

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 26-22-1 +7.20 units

Phillies (Adam Eaton) at Arizona (Randy Johnson).

Big Unit is no longer all that though still a pitcher who knows the game and give you innings. If he wasn't starting for the hot Diamondbacks I don't think he'd command this price. Even with the hot club behind him Phillies have come to swing their bats and they hold value with Eaton doing his job.

Take Phillies +140 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-1 last selection. YTD 26-20-1 +10.20 units. Missed Sunday's games.

Texas Rangers are playing pretty good ball of late and they will be in Seattle matching up their veteran Ace Kevin Milwood against veteran Washburn. I backed Washburn on the road and he burned me not going that route again. Jarrod is still a fade, he has thrown too many pitches. Rangers taking 4 out of last 5 starting 4/30 witH KC at home taking that series and taking the Oakland series after that in Oakland. Milwood comes in working 44.1 innings 2-2 record with 3.85 ERA didn't look that hot in 4/30 KC win giving up 5 runs on 7 hits, no decision before that for 4/25, 4/20 and 4/15. Opposition scoring ran high with Over hitting 4 in a row. Still that Over is no play tonight Kevin Milwood giving up 5 earned runs two straight start is not the norm and if you recall the early season match up Milwood gave Seattle no earned runs eating up 6 innings on 91 pitches with 4 hits and 2 unearned runs losing that one to Erik Bedard. Tonight the opposition is Washburn 1-4 record 4.86 ERA with 33.1 innings last outing at Cleveland chased in 4.1 innings averaged 23.5 pitches per inning finishing with 102 pitches thrown. He or Mariers has not won since 4/09 @Tampa and maybe due for a quality outing at home, but rather go with the momentum team and fade the loser of 5 in a row, with 4 losing by more than 1.5 runs.

TEXAS RANGERS +116 for 2 units(L)

if this bet is available to you.
TEXAS RANGERS ALTERNATE RUNLINE -1.5 at +181 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -3.00 units

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 25-19 +9.20 units

Got a two in one selection today. Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels. Angels did not go away quietly yesterday as they were threatening with baserunners at the bottom of 9th, but could not cash. Baltimore is a surprise out of the East and if they can transform their winning ways on the road they'll be giving some big payroll teams run for their money. This match up, though Angels seem to have the upper hand on paper, Angels will have to fight hard to keep this even. For some strange reason Angels have out performed themselves on the road and balancing 50% at home. So we have two teams under performing in this situation with pretty good pitching, that's a Under for me. The Side is Baltimore with Cabrera, his stuff is looking electric and I like Garland too, but 2008 model Daniel Cabrera is what I will take.

BALTIMORE +120 for 1 unit(L)
BAL/ANA UNDER 9.5 at +104 for 2 units(W)

Missed the starter, but main course was right on.
1-1 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 25-18-1 +10.50 units

Tampa at Boston.
A.J. Burnett shuts down the Red Sox 3 hits no runs into the 8th inning and take the game 3-0 at Fenway. 2 previous games were tight, but Sox were winners so the pressure is not apparent to the fact offense has produced only 4 runs in last 45 innins starting 4/26 @TB. Still winners 8 of last 11 home games you have to feel this shutout leads to production against TB in this turn around revenge game at Fenway against Jackson. Edwin Jackson was good in 4/26 match up going 7 innings 5 hits 1 run throwing 108 pitches 62 for strikes, but Clay Buchholtz was better going 8 innings 3 hits only a mistake thrown to Aki was 2 run HR ending in a loss. Since that match Boston offense have been quiet while Rays continued to roll. So is Tampa money with Jackson for the second round? At Fenway? I can't go against Red Sox comng off zero scoring, but I will back runline +1.5 and look for Jackson & TB boys to keep it tight. Jackson 4 out of 5 match up against Boston are 1 run games.

TAMPA Runline +1,5 -120 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.20 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 24-18-1 +9.43 units

It's early Thursday games have started. Backing Tigers on the road against Yanks at home. Yankees will pitch Kennedy and Tigers will counter with Robertson. May not be much of a pitching match up on paper, but you know Detroit will put the better product on the field.

TIGERS +106(W)

1-0 +1.06 units