World Series Game 5

Can't catch a break in deep post season, but I will tell you when the series total moves greater than 1.5 runs on either direction for following game the play against the movement is obvious public choice and also very suspect. In this case Total 9.5 from game 4 moving to Total 7.5 game 5 at Under -120~130 with 69% consensus betting Over and yet this Total has declined to 7 at some books.

Today's pitchers are both lefties. Cole Hamels pitching last 7 out of 7 quality starts has not allowed more than 2 ER since 9/07. Total ranging from 9~7.5 O/U 1-6 and that single Over game was due to Phillies bats not Hamels pitching. Rays line of defense will start with Scott Kazmir on the mound. He has lost the edge on his slider and games have been going Over when he takes the mound, O/U 7-2 last 9. He's had 3 quality starts out of last 7 with rising 1.63 WHIP, but he was outstanding in his last game, outstanding against Boston before that which was a bounce back game. Phillies and Tampa weaker against lefties, elimination game a plus.

PHL/TAM UNDER 7.5 at -119 for 1 unit(PP due to Rain at 2-2 tie)

This World Series is fading away. It's not the same, it's dragging and this thing might go into November? Give me a break! I love MLB, but we shouldn't be getting rained out. This has not happened because the season has never been this long. The momentum has died and I'm not sure what I'm going to due for the remaining games. Plan is not to force any games and take what comes. Stay tuned and in the mean time watch the bouncing ball in NBA Opener!

World Series Game 4

Game 4 in Philadelphia will welcome better weather with wind blowing 9mph out toward right center. That’s 401 ft straight away to 409 ft to 385 ft at the "Angle" left center producing an UNDER advantage at Citizens Ball park. The Phillies are 2 for33 with RISP overall hitting .178 in post season and have 2 infield singles in 3 games of World Series so far.
Bull pen has been outstanding with 1.85 ERA in post season, 2nd best MLB all time. Tampa sending pitcher Sonnanstine who is O/U 9-9 away, but at 1.17 WHIP and lower in post season play so there’s little to wonder UNDER trending 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 3, if you had U9.5 in game 3. Looking for runs to come at a premium again with pitchers batting.

UNDER 9.5 at -115 for 1 unit

World Series Game 3

Here we go in rainy Philly game 3 of world series knotted 1-1, Forcasted before the series as a tight billing with the home field being the edge. That would put Phil's in the drivers seat, but that's not the case with Moyer and two shaky post season starts up against Garza pitching at his best.
Give another edge to Garza with Phillies only having Matt Stairs as the only player to have faced Garza.
Rays -113 for 1 unit

ALCS Game 7

Red Sox back from the dead have knotted this up 3-3. Tampa will play out this showdown on their turf, but do they have any more home brewed magic? Garza is the last line of defense against Lester who was roughed up in his last home appearance. Just as Rays dominated this match up in game 3 the tide has changed with wind behind Red Sox sail. Wakening of Boston bats in game 5 was uncanny and if Rays were to take this series they needed to close the deal in game 6. Now doubts lurk in young Ray players and confidence is dissipating. Look for Boston return to World Series in a replay of 2007 ALCS.

BOSTON ML -118 for 1 unit(L)

Hats off to Garza & Rays.
0-1 -1.18 units

POST SEASON MLB Monday

3-0 Post Season plays. So far Perfecto!

Angels at Red Sox back to game 1 starters where Lester got the best of Lackey, but Lackey is tough on the road. I see this game to be a dog fight as Angels have raised their level of play and Red Sox are at home in post season dominace. You know I would take Angels in a heartbeat if my capping told me that's what's going to happen, but I don't see them forcing the issue in October Fenway. Boston to move on to take on 2008 dream team Tampa Rays.

BOSTON RED SOX -129 for 1 units(W)

I hate to be so right sometimes. I love the Halos they're my So Cal home team, but business is business. Still rolling all winners!
1-0 +1.00 unit

POST SEASON MLB Sunday

2-0 in Post Season plays.

Looks like all the losing teams are going down 1-2-3. How about this, Angels to buck the trend in Boston after taking two beating at home. Won't happen? Angels are done? maybe so, but 100 game winner Angels get one more try to get this monkey off their back. First game Lester shut down Angels offense didn't allow runners to cash in. Second game Dice K looked shaky as hell and if it wasn't for the big burst 1st by BoSox home team should of held the series knotted. Now here we are today all or nothing and Angels in spot for elimination. Becket is a big game pitcher, but does not come in strong and under cold weather his oblique issue will be tested. Joe Saunders in last line of defense is much stronger on the road. Take into consideration the meat of Angels line up is hitting and I don't think they'll roll over tonight.

ANGELS +163 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.63 units

POST SEASON MLB Friday

1-0 in Post Season.

I say something nice about Chicago and it looks like both are in trouble. White Sox are on the road so there's some excuse there, but how about them Cubs. Can the Dodgers end Chicago's dream? I'm not going to doubt it.

Two games in slate for Friday, White Sox at Rays and Boston at Anaheim, on first glance it looks Over at Tampa and Under at Anaheim, but that's just me most people see sides I see totals.

Considering inconceivable sides with White Sox and Boston of these two teams I think Boston away with Dice K taking the mound has the best value to risk. Santana is great no doubt and his maturity bring another element to a big game, but this situation with Boston taking back seat to Angels all year only to have them come strong is typical Red Sox playing October baseball. These two team play similar games where both teams used to play on the opposite spectrum, but shed or added players changing their dynamics. There is a edge to Red Sox showing better numbers with runner in scoring position playing the road dog.

RED SOX +130 for 1 unit(W)

Thank you Drew!
1-0 +1.30 units

POST SEASON MLB Wednesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 86-65-2 +41.98 units

Win on Zona was my last posted selection for the regular season. Had some rough spots toward the end, but I'm happy with the season. White Sox had a nice finish too, but keep in mind the tough wins weren't all that tough and both came at home. Something about Chicago not just White Sox, but Cubs too even though they tapered towards the end that home field looks mighty strong.



Let's get this party started right.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies.
Taking the veteran Cole in a RL. Siding with the odds makers.

PHL -1.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)

Winner winner chicken dinner.
1-0 +1.04 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 85-65-2 +40.98 units

Brandon Webb and the Arizona diamondbacks are in hunt for October. 21 game winner Webb hit a rough patch losing three in a row from 8/26, 8/31 & 9/6, but that's behind him coming back strong the following two games with 15 innings 13 hits 2 ER both winners. Away record 10-5, team record 10-7 with excellent 1.14 WHIP coming into St Louis in a spot to improve.
Todd Wellemeyer has done well for the Cards with 12-8, but team record 14-16 means Cards have not done their part when Todd does not factor into the game. He is also posting better numbers on the road too bad this one is at home. Loser of 4 out of last 5 while pitching quality or near quality starts as 4 out of last 5 has also gone Under.

ARIZONA -120 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

0-2 last selection. YTD 85-65-2 +41.98 units

Tonight is a historical night as Yankee Stadium, the 3rd oldest of current active ball parks, will close it's doors after tonight's home stand against Baltimore. Andy Pettite getting the ball is appropriate and there seems to be no doubt about Yankees taking this game. Consensus +70% are laying the thick chalk so the alternative is to look at the Run Line? To be clear Pettite comes in pitching 4 non-quality starts out of last 5, lone quality start was still a loser making all of last 5 starts team losses. Yanks are 1-9 in Andy's last 10 starts his home record is much worse than on the road 5-8 with team record 6-10. Still Andy is not all to blame as Yanks bats scored no more than 3 runs in any of those 5 straight losers total of 10 runs in 5 games. That's also adding to his huge Under bias O/U 9-23
Chris Waters barely got his feet wet with 53 innings, but coming off a shut out of Blue Jays.
I don't see that as a good sign as Waters got rung by Texas back in August after shutting down the Angels for 8 innings. He has followed a quality start with a stinker twice in his 9 starts. O's do back up Waters on the road and team is 3-1.
I think Yanks will take the game, but expect O's to give them a game. Don't be surprised if O's take the lead going into late inning only to have it slip away.

BALTIMORE +1.5 at +112 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 85-63-2 +43.98 units

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians. Featuring Justin Verlander against Jeremy Sowers. Both pitchers with losing season and both pitchers will be throwing to the strong side of respective clubs. The total has been set on the high side at 10 and Jeremy is pitching Under at home in a spot to improve from his last outing. Justin also pitching Under away, but more due to Tigers lack of scoring. That may not be the case today as Verlander is improving.

TIGERS +100 for 1 unit(L)
OVER 10 +101 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 85-62-2 +44.98 units

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs. Chicago sending their big gun Rich Harden and he's been all that. But far as Bush and the Brewers being done for 2008 is a premature public perception.
Brew crew still in the hunt and Cubbies are not in best form heading into post season. Play the road dog with backs against the wall.

BREWERS +216 for 1 unit(L)

99 times out of 100 we win with 4 run cushon in the 9th. All I can say is WTF!
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 84-62-2 +43.81 units

Odalis Perez 6-10, 12 quality starts 4.48 ERA, 1.52 WHIP. His record does not give you much indication, but to fade him more times than not. His home record less than on the road, but Washington has managed to have 8-6 winning record. That bit of information maybe a cause for further investigation. Perez has been durable this year with 27 games and though he has 11 ND Nats have pulled out 6-5 in those situations. Out of those ND at home the record is 6-1. Odalis coming off a 3 inning stinker at New York Mets and he is in a bounce back spot at home facing the Mets again. Another important point is the Under which is a stand out O/U 3-11 Odalis at home. Don't worry about Mets with Mike they're facing the lowest scoring team in MLB.

UNDER 9 at +117 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.17 units

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 83-62-2 +42.69 units

Game time. Here it is for AL East Boston at Tampa Bay. One of the best home team taking on one of the winning est pitcher in 2008. Home team pitching is also one tough dude, Kazmir, and this match up should be a good one. I'm going to boil it down to this "who the new boss? same as the old boss" It late season and Red Sox are showing it. That's what I'm playing with Dice-K on the mound.

BOSTON +112 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.12 units

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 82-62-2 +41.69 units

The Hurricane has altered the course of things to come. I'm referring to Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros. The damage was not that bad, but this game has been moved to Miller park.
There are interesting changes to how the pitchers will fare. Zambrano is not in his best form and has more than his share of non-quality starts, but he does hold his own on the road. That might not been good enough with Randy Wolfe pitching strong, very strong at home, but no so away from Minute Maid. His recent form has him pitching well away and home, but one place that has given Randy problems is Miller Park. While Zambrano doesn't mind the cozy confines of Miller Randy will have those bad flash backs. Go with Cubs.

CHICAGO CUBS -114 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 82-61-2 +42.69 units

Back to the grind. Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Game 2.

Yes, I like the Blue Jays in Game 1 with A.J. and in Game 2 it's more about going against Colon.

Keep your eyes on 1st game to see what pitchers get used.

TORONTO +123 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

Coming off a No Play. YTD 81-61-2 +41.46 units
This Matchbook payout delay is getting way beyond reasonable and I'm not playing their exchange. They have lost my trust and that's all they have. The writings are on the wall jjust curise the internet and you wind the same talk. People are not saying their funds are low, but who's to say it's not and that's the first thought that comes to my mind.



Take Texas on the road against Oakland



TEX +123 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.23 units

MLB Tuesday

Wow September 9th already. 0-1 in last selection. YTD 81-61-2 +41.46 units

I'm having issues with MatchBook exchange and it's really putting a damper on capping my games and getting info published. I like to think it's a isolated incident, but they are just dragging to resolve it and it's getting on my nerves. I will make noise if this keeps up.
Like I tell anyone who listen, keep multiple books and limit exposure because if any of these books go belly up you'll end up holding a empty bag. It doesn't matter how cheap they sell it if it doesn't work. When the exodus starts it will be swift.

I'd advise having 3 Off Shore accounts without affiliation. You can get more, but any less makes it really hard to get competitive rates and if you go more than 5 accounts you better be good at organizing. I'm not as close with Pinnacle Sports since they pulled out of U.S. , but they are still the top book around. I'm also going to give good house seal to BookMaker they are the open line where you can gauge the market and play'em big. Another choice is Greek or Bet Jamaica, they are affiliated, Both very good and for MLB Bet Jamaica has competitive lines, bonus programs and great BetJamaica transfer card allowing to pull money from ATM. Do your own research and don't forget to look at Sportsbook Review.

MLB Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 81-60-2 +42.46 units
L.A. Angels at Chicago White Sox.
Top road team take one the toughest home team in AL. White Sox sending Ace Burlie against call up Dustin Mosely. Burlie is tough at home, but the Halos have hit him well and Mosely can keep this in striking range. Taking the good price on Angels and they are still rolling.

LAA +154 at 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Wednesday

1-1 last selection with small profit. YTD 81-59-2 +43.46 units


New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays in game two of series.
Game 1 NYY 7-2 Mussina 3rd straight win against the Rays went 6 innings scattering 1 allowing 2 runs.

Garza was not on his game, but Rays were sloppy too, with 5 innings 5 hits 6 runs 4 earned.

NYY improved to 8-5 against the Rays. Marte pitched facing 2 and Chamberlin faced 1 in 8th and Giese finished the 9th for NYY.

Miller pitched 2 innings 2 hits no run, Hammel pitched 1 inning 2 hits 1 run (HR) and Salas gave nothing with 2 K'sin the 9th.


Tonight Yankees send Carl Pavano only his 3rd start since coming back from DL. He has pitched 16 innings in 2 starts 163 pitches and has 2 wins to show for it with 3.27 ERA. He's return is looking pretty good and he only threw 72 pitches last outing. He come in on a spot to decline in quality on the road, but still might be tough to beat.

Edwin Jackson gets the call for to tie up this series and he comes in hot winning 6 of last 7 with 5 quality start close to all 7 starts being quality with 2.59 ERA in this stretch.

Game 1 looked like it wanted to go Over as it threatened with 12 hits by the Rays and 9 by the Yankees and that tone will carry over to game 2, but speculating Jackson can stay on his game I like the Under to cash. Edwin and Rays have been tough on division rivals with Under games having advantage, 4-8. Home games O/U 5-8.

NNY/TAMP UNDER 9.5 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
The play did speculate Jackson having a quality game which he did not.
Still cappers on Over was sweating it as the Under was holding by the hook in 8th inning and A-Rod homer in the 9th was the first MLB replay used to uphold the call.
0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-1 last selection with small profit. YTD 80-58-2 +43.24 units

September baseball and contenders are going to battle it out. Toronto is making their stand in 2nd half with excellent pitching. David Purcey is showing his potential with his game improving. Coming off 8 innings 5 hits 1 ER with 11 K's no walk tough loss at Tampa the kid is fast riser known for his good K to BB ratio. All looks in place for Blue Jays to get in striking distance, but the Twins are in the late season race too. Minny will send their top money pitcher Perkins to the mound and he's shown consistent results home or away. Coming off 7 innings 8 hits 4 ER at Seattle. Glen eating innings Twins also eating Lefties and play their best after a day of rest.

TWINS +100 for 1 unit(L)
Could not hold 5-1 lead chasing Purcey out and Twins pen blow this game.

Yankees maybe out and Rays look in, but Yanks are about the only team in American League to have a winning season against the Rays. Tampa just about unbeatable at the Trop and they will send Garza, 11-7 with 3.53 ERA, he's pitched 23 innings in last 3 starts and given up only 4 runs. Still I like Yankees with their top money pitcher Mike Mussina. Got his 16th win last start against the Royals and he has been especially good against the Rays.

YANKEES +122 for 1 unit(W)
Moose does it like nobody can.

1-1 +0.22 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 79-57-2 +42.59 units

Good Labor day to all. Enjoy your extra day off and maybe take in a Baseball game.
Phillies are in Washington today. How about them Nats? Showing some effort and getting results. They're giving the ball to Redding and he is 9-8 with team record 18-10. Nats win 4 times as much when Redding is on the job. He is coming off a win against the Dodgers which was no walk in the park. Red at home Nats are 10-5 with less than 50% quality indicating Washington bats gave him enough, but today with NL East power house Phillies that maybe a tall order. Kyle Kendricks on the mound for Phillies have not been going deep and August starts are forgettable, but Phillies 10-4 away and 11-6 as favorite with Kyle. Phillies are starting to play better and Nats are capable of heading south anytime.
Backing the road favorite contending for division in September.

PHL -135 for 1 unit(L)

Adding Baltimore O's at Boston Red Sox
Olson coming off the bull pen and getting a start, but he has been a bust and Red Sox are knocking out lefties. 3 quality starts out of 12 road games is not going to cut at Fenway.
Paul Byrd pitching quality games and looks in form for late season run.

BOSTON -1.5 at -103 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +0.65 units

MLB Sunday

1-0 last selection. YTD 79-56-2 +43.59 units

Sundays are day games. SF Giants are back to their losing ways, 1-4 last 5, dropping 2 on the road against the Reds. Giants are timely Underdogs that have paid out well for those in the know. This team from the Bay despite having 44% win have lost only -6.3 units compared to the top team Arizona with 51% win losing -10 units the trouble with this match up with NL Central loser Reds is that they are NL Central division team. Giants have lost bulk of their games to the Central division teams, 9-27, and Cincy has beat them 4-1. Match up has been going Over, but look for the trend to reverse with Cain on the road and Arroyo in great form.

SFG/CIN UNDER 8.5 at 100 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 78-56-2 +41.92 units

Busy weekend ! Football is in the air and I think it weakens the books with all the frenzy. They should be use to it, but it makes me feel a bit better thinking baseball info is not as sharp. Like to look at under the radar type games at this point.

Colorado at San Diego is one of them. It's a "who cares" type of game with Rockies mounting a quiet winning streak of 4 before dropping one and they are back on the win in game 1 against the Padre. But Padres are hitting of late and bull pen has been on the rise combine with Jimenez in a spot to decline from last outing. Pads put in a triple A call up, but in this pitcher friendly ball park has shined on the home team of late. Pads took out Webb, Randy Johnson and Jimenez could very likely be the next accomplished pitcher to go down in PetCo Park.
Go with the home team as a good size dog to keep the NL West in check.

SAN DIEGO PADRES +167 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.67 units

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 78-55-2 +42.97 units

SF Giants at Cincy Reds. We have a good pitching match up coming up and back the Under at Great American Ballpark.

SFG/CIN UNDER 8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

MLB Thursday

1-1 last selection on a designed play. YTD 76-55-2 +40.97 units


This game, this match up today may not live up to it's past billing, but you gotta cap it and bet it like you mean it because Red Sox are in the Bronx for the final days of this storied stadium.
Jon Lester will lead the quest to put the daggard as the first 2 contest in this series was not even close.

Lester is #2 money pitcher after Matsuzaka. He's pitched 16 innings allowing 2 runs against the Yanks this year. Lester returns to Yankee Stadium where he shut down the Bombers going all the way on 7/03. He is coming off a bad outing against Toronto yet he has 5 quality starts out of last 7, 8 quality out of 10 against division and Boston has not lost Lester's start in a row.

Yankees maybe down, but they are not going away without a fight. Taking the home mound will be Bombers top money pitcher Mike Mussina. Yankees undefeated with Moose on the job in August. He is also 5 quality out of last 7. Mike also coming into a spot to improve after a non quality start with no decision. His 1.20 drops to 0.97 WHIP under daylight and Yanks stand 7-1

It looks like a good one and should be closer than the first 2. I'm taking the UNDER and backing Mussina to stop the bleeding at home. I expect Yankees bats to make their adjustments against Lester and salvage this series at Bronx. Yanks also 15-3 in game 3 of series after a loss.

BOS/NYY UNDER 9.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
NYY -118 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.00 units

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 75-54-2 +40.73 units

White Sox will kick it off in Baltimore by taking care of some unfinished business. Conclusion of 11 innings 3-3 tied game that was canceled due to rain back in April 28th. Looks like Chicago will send D.J Carrasco or Matt Thornton and O's have not yet announced their pitcher. Either way it'll eat up pitchers from the main event with Clayton Richard vs Chris Waters. Not much to say about these two pitchers with limited innings, but I don't see them going deep. The pens have been some what taxed coming into this series and I feel that bats will have advantage on both sides.

CWS/BAL OVER 11.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

This line has pushed to 12 and when you get a inflated contract, sell it.
Take the money without the risk no need to refuse good money on the table.

CWS/BAL UNDER 11.5 at +131 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.24 units

MLB Sunday

1-1 last selection. YTD 74-54-2 +39.73 units

Through the course of games teams and stadiums develops a certain persona. Like Reds at home run friendly Great American Ballpark or Rockies at thin air Coors Field both of these teams are "Over" persona teams.. Home or away this match up has trended Over. Look at last nights game with both teams hitting double digits scoring combined 13 runs to crush OVER. and before that on Friday, same thing 13 runs. But following these two OVER games come a very interesting pitching angle.
Cueto vs Jimenez:
Cueto starts O/U 8-17-1, away 4-8-1, against R pitchers 3-13-1, against NL West 0-4, as Underdog 3-8-1, Aug starts 1-3 and day game 2-6
Jimenez starts O/U 8-19, home 3-10, against R pitchers 7-12, against NL Central 4-4, as favorites 4-14, Aug starts 1-3 and day game 2-6

CIN/COL Under 9.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 72-53-2 +37.73 units

I have some thoughts on Angels of Anaheim. The Boys from Big A are fine bunch, I love this team, they have been money all year long, but they are in a funk right now. When the Angels are on they are the top team in MLB they are balanced and can shut down or out score any opponent. So what's the matter with them? I'm going to chalk it to nature of baseball and right now Twins are the driven one's. Tampa took care of White Sox today and Twins can take the AL Central. Garland for the Angels weakest money pitcher in rotation and middle of line up is cool.
Blackburn can definitely take this away and eat up innings.

MIN +130 for 1 unit(L)
MIN/LAA OVER 9 at -112 for 3 units(W)

1-1 +2.00 units

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection on a big dog. YTD 71-53-2 +36.73 units

Let's keep our eyes on the ball. We are looking sharp lately and poised to do more damage.
Los Angeles Dodgers making that cross country trip to Philadelphia. Maddux is back from Pads and into the rotation. Dodgers are the talk of town ever since Manny arrived to L.A. all I hear is Manny this, Manny that and how much better Dodgers are. I guess that's a fact he's batting near .500 since joining L.A. Jeff Kent surging right in front is another good reason, but I think every one's too high on Dodgers. San Fransisco stole a series and so did Colorado at home as a result of miss ques, low energy and bad luck, all these things combined took down the superior team. Philadelphia maybe in similar situation with noticeable offensive power missing from the box scores, but they should be focused today. The advantage tonight is Phillies at home with sinker ball pitcher Kendricks taking the ball.

PHL -111 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 70-53-2 +34.25 units

When you think of Washington Nationals what comes to your mind? This team is on pace for worst of the worst in MLB and right now in mid of 12 game losing streak. They bleed red in every money situation and this team is a money making fader.

Has anyone not caught on? The deal here is like a hot crap table over filled with chips and if you are trying to get on the train late there's a chance it'll crash as the chalk thickens

Let's tread carefully and take a look at the red inked stats.

Home 23-39 Away 21-44 going bad to worst. 16-29 against division opponents.

August started hot with 4 wins then 6-1 in first 7 games, but they have been sliding ever since with only 4 out of next 12 cashing on +1.5 runline.

Runline winners have been followed by couple of big losers.
Moneyline 107 games logged Underdog, 10 games better than +200 dogs with 7 of those coming in August.

How many big dogs have they cashed? 3 out of 10 with 2 winners in August.


They will be facing a winning lefty pitcher at Philadelphia, Jamie Moyer 11-7 with 3.64 ERA, He's already won them twice and one ND with Phillies winning all three this season.

He has 6 quality start out of last 7 with 2.45 ERA

Also recorded a recent win, 7/30, against Redding at Washington.



Does all this justify laying the big chalk or runliine or maybe even give up -2 in search of better value? I'm starting to see it the other way. Moyer as good as he is right now is coming off a 7 inning 3 hit no run game at San Diego which is high end performance in terms of Jamie's average. I expect some down grade here and he has been weaker at home with 5 quality starts out of 12. Phillies are also in a bit of funk and the teeth of the line up is slumping.

The visiting Nationals willl send up Tim Redding and though he has been getting knocked around in his last two starts he is the top money pitcher for the Nats. He's supported by winning team record home and away. Nats are coming off a shut out in the hands of Bret Meyers which calls for some kind of response from Manny Acta's boys.

NATIONALS +248 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +2.48 units

MLB Wednesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 69-53-2 +33.25 units

Still playing the same series and Giants will give the ball to the superior pitcher at home.
Take the Giants.

SFG -112 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.oo unit

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 68-53-2 +32.25 units

It's been a while since my last post.

Tonight's game is Florida Marlins at San Fransisco Giants. Giants finshed their road trip on a high note and it wasn't just Zito in a groove shutting down the Braves, but G-Men taking the Atlanta series 3-1. Before Atlanta was the 4 game loss in Houston which made the previous Dodgers series win seem just lucky but, all in all 5-6 road trip winning 2 out of 3 series and August record stands 9-8 with 4-1 series wins.

Marlins in August are on the flip side at 6-10. The Fish have lost the Colorado series at home 1-2 then went on to the road trip, winning Phillies series 2-1, losing Mets series 1-2, returned home losing Cards series 1-3 and Chicago series 1-2.

SF Giants are a dangerous home underdog facing the cooling Marlins. Kevin Corria will take the home mound and as Giants have improved Kevin, 2-6 with 5.12 ERA, is 1-1 with 3.90 ERA since the All Star and 0-1 with 2.84 ERA in August. 3 games started 19 innings of work with 16 hits and 6 ER but the Marlins are well aware of their position starting the first game with their top money pitcher Ricky Norasco. Spot for Giants are coming in game 2 and this situation call for the Under.

FLA/SFG UNDER 8 at -103 for 1 units(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection. YTD 68-52-2 +35.03

Chicago White Sox getting slaughtered in Oakland in the past is nothing to hang your hat on. I would be concerned with the West Coast travel, but not enough to keep me off the White Sox.
I looked at it when it first came out and had it at -105, but this pick will come in at -114 and basically see this line coming out with Sox a slight favorite. That's enough for me as long as they pull it off at the end. Oakland comes in dropping the Rays series at home and last night in 12 innings.

CWS -114 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.28 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 67-52-2 +34.03 units

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers.
Brett Myers against Hiroki Kuroda two right handed pitchers with losing record and both are at the bottom of money record for their team. Looking at recent form Myers is looking good the last 3 with over 20 innings of work and allowing only 3 runs on 13 hits, all three winners.
Hiroki Kuroda also pretty nice with last two and it was 3 starts ago when he couldn't get into the 4th inning in San Fransisco. Kuroda seems to have a comfort level at home in Los Angeles and definitely was in the zone last outing. Give Dodgers the sweep at home.

DODGERS -113 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 67-51-2 +35.03 units

Cincinnati Reds are taking some licking as retooling continues. Since trading Junior to Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds are 1-9 with 6 straight losers and counting. Edinson Volquez will carry the hopes of halting the slide against another team looking towards the future Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucks come off a very nice come from behind rally in a make up game against the Mets and they will give the ball to the man they got in return for X-man Nady, Jeff Karstens 2-0 with the Bucks giving up zero runs in 15 innings of work, He's a good pick up for Pittsburgh Pirates.
Even with Reds established pitcher Volquez taking the mound I look for visitors to take another step back as Bucks are showing life and they are back at the friendly confines of PNC.

PIRATES +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 66-51-2 +34.03 units

SF Giants knocked out the new look Dodgers, last 2 games of the series were 9th inning wins, and now head into Houston, out of the cool chill of SF Bay. Jonathan Sanchez 8-8 with 4.64 ERA will take the hill at Minute Maid. Sanchez has provided the second of 1-2 punch behind Tim Lincecum and he is the No#2 money pitcher on Giants rotation with his team 13-10. 7 of those wins come on the road with Jonathan recording 6-4 away, but he has lost that touch he showed in June logging 1 quality start out of last 7 with G-Men going 1-6.

Houston Astros sweep the Reds with a exclamation on the last game. Going for Houston Brandon Backe ,6-11 with 5.35 ERA, he is a bust and Astros are 9-15 when Backe is on the job. Not much to praise his recent form with 2 quality starts out of last 7 with 1-3 and 2-5 team record.

I would not back Backe in most situation, but Sanchez taking this game is a tall order. G-Men winning the Dodgers series is bit misleading as Dodgers beat Dodgers more so than Giants beating the Dodgers. Astros have not lost a game after a double digit win this season. Even with Brandon's bad home start Astros are 6-4 and he comes in on a bounce back spot.

HOUSTON -132 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 66-50-2 +35.15 units

Anthony Reyes getting another shot in the rotation with Cleveland Indians today and Jays will counter with David Purcey getting a extended look from Gaston. The change of scenery might be good for Reyes he has 2 tune ups at triple A both wins with 2.77 ERA and comes with Major league experience. Purcey is not as bad as suggested by the numbers. He has shown excellent K to BB ratio, 129 Ks to 34 BB at Syracuse with 2.69 ERA. But both pitchers are lacking Major league innings this year to forecast likely depth and quality. I like the Blue Jays based on current state of the team. Toronto are in striking distance of the Yankees in AL East and could be in the mix come September. Cleveland is evaluating players and Toronto will make their home stand count. Indians 20-38 away with lots of holes and they are weak holding to a lead.

TORONTO -112 for 1 unit(L)

Reyes was outstanding.
0-1 -1.12 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 64-50-2 +32.91 units

Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals. Third game of the series with L.A. young gun Clayton Kershaw going against Cardinals top money pitcher Kyle Lohse. Kershaw is a dangerous lefty with a good curve, good command and able to change speeds. Highly regarded kid on a fast track out of the minors. He's blanked 12 innings in last 2 games and growing confidence.
Lohse 7-1 at home 2.92 ERA with 1.05 WHIP and O/U 4-8. Bounced back nicely winning against Phillies after a clunker at Mets. This game comes after a Wednesday night when L.A. got 6 runs on 11 hits stranding 16 and Cards got 9 runs on 17 hits leaving 15 easily crushing the OVER 8.5 and today's total of 8.5 is again getting money flow to the Over 8.5 since the open.
The Over in this match up has set the tone since the first game when Under 8 collapsed in the 8th inning. But I think this Night game turn around day game give Under the advantage given decent arms and this match up is a up grade from last night.

UNDER 8.5 +114 for 1 unit(W)

Similar situation with Florida at Philadelphia. Young pitcher with bright future goes against Ace Cole Hammel. Without putting in the numbers, which is pretty good, this game will be covered by Bill Hohn behind the plate with a huge strike zone O/U 4-12

UNDER 9 +110 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.24 units

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 64-49-2 +33.91 units

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies. Jorge De La Rosa with 5-6 and 7.15 ERA who was on the cusp of being out of the rotation is a feast or famine pitcher. He has shown flashes of dazzle, but is far from quality. He holds a home win road loss record, 4-1 & 1-5, but lacks quality anywhere at 3 out of 14. Rockies have been good at home of late losing only 1 game in their last home stand 6-1. The problem is their bats have cooled since the Reds series and Nats come in hot winners of last 4 including the first game of the series knocking out Rockies Ace Cook. Nats will send John Lannan 6-11 record 3.61 ERA and this guy would have a winning record if he was pitching for a team with support. 15 quality starts out of 21 games and he is a road warrior with 11 quality starts out of 12. Looking for Nats to have pitching and offense in synch to stun the Coors Field crowd.

NATIONALS +151 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection in a late inning thriller. YTD 64-48-2 +34.91 units

Today the selection is on the late game Atlanta Braves at SF Giants. Two good arms just the way I like it and no the selection does not take the O/U.
The G-Men will send Matt Cain 6-9 3.70 ERA. He is rising with impressive July too bad it doesn't reflect team wins, 5 quality starts out of last 7 games 2.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, matter of fact much of his quality starts have gone as wasted effort. Jair Jurrgens 10-6 3.06 ERA. He has been solid and better away. Giants playing poor at home 20-34 and Atlanta poor on the road 18-35, but Jurrgens has been the money pitcher when compared to Cain.

The play is with the line movement, meaning better price was the early line, opposite of last selection against the movement.

ATLANTA +102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 63-48-2 +33.89 units

Yes I did think about Angels on Sunday, but glad that thinking didn't go far.

I'm playing the game at St Louis with visitors Philadelphia Phillies. Going outside my usual pitching angle as the arms match up should go to Todd Wellemeyer and the home team, but that's not what the line says. Opening line with visitors favorite has swung to the other side and there is something wrong with taking the Red Birds. Maybe Brett Myers turned the corner or Wellemeyer on short leash is holding the Cards line or both pitchers not factoring, but in any case Cardinals are reeling.

PHL +102 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.02 units

MLB Saturday

Wasn't that exciting? 1-0 last selection. YTD 63-47-2 +34.89 units

3 times is a charm and this one comes under the day light with two good arms. Weaver against Mussina.

This one went down the wrong way and I did not bet back in the morning to break this down. I'm going to look ahead and see if I can publish something early.

LAA +137 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday. YTD +62-47-2 +33.89 units

Staying with Angels at Bronx. Pitching match up is Ervin Santana coming off 2 consecutive losses, but he is tough on the road this season at 8-2 record pitching 8 quality starts out of 13. He looks poised to bounce back after lasting only 5 innings when he is 7 innings strong in all other July starts. Yankees Ponson has only 2 quality starts out of 9 home games, but he has managed 3-0 record with 6-3 team record. Sidney's also 7-2 life time against the Halos and getting the support of Abreau, A-Rod, Jeter, Giambi, Nady, Pudge and the boys. It all sounds good, but Angels still hot and Ponson is getting hit .337 to right and .304 to left bats. Santana and the Halos will make you believe.

LAA -102 for 1 unit(W)

Angels do it against Mariano Rivera and take the Yankees shut out.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-1 last selection will a small gain. YTD 61-47-2 +32.27 units

AL West marred in mediocrity does not compare to the divisions of East or Central, but there is a team dangerously balanced with pitching, defense, speed and playing opportunistic baseball.

New York Yankees at home in 2nd half is a team to behold. Starting pitchers that drive this team are Joba Chamberlain and veteran Andy Pettitte. Joba did his part in yesterday's win against Baltimore and Andy will get the ball tonight. Andy currently pitching in mid season form, 5 quality starts out of last 7 lowering his already good WHIP from 1.22 to 1.14. But I still like Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I'm not counting on Jon Garland to shut down the Yankees line up at home, but to keep thee Halos in striking distance. Garland better on the road 6-2 with 5 quality starts out of 9. Angels pen locks it down on the road with 3.18 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Yankees also stumbled against the O's while Angels roll through the East. True, Yanks can heat up at home in a New York minute, but give me the road warriors from the West beating teams their not suppose to.

LAA +162 for 1 unit(W)

The mighty Angels!
1-0 +1.62 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. 60-46-2 +32.14 units

Taking the Total at Tampa Rays at Toronto Jays with two good arms going at it. These two teams have matched up Under and recently trending Under. The number is a very low 7.5 with money moving Over.

RAYS/JAYS UNDER 7.5 at +113 for 1 unit(W)

Taking Side at White Sox at Twins. Minny is tough at home no doubt and they can certainly turn it on at Metro Dome, but White Sox taking out Detroit on the road, hitting well and one of their top pitcher taking the ball.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +109 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 +0.13 units

MLB Sunday Night

0-1 last selection. YTD 60-45-2 +33.14 units

Sidney Ponson 6-1 is a risky proposition. He looks and is hittable, but NY just takes it out of the equation. Books have heavily tipped to Bostons way with best money & quality pitcher Jon Lester 8-3, 4-1 at home with dropping ERA and WHIP in July. Boston wins 8-2 when Lester in on his job. If there was a argument to make Jon is coming off a no run game which indicates quality dip and he is facing a hot hitting team. I would not be surprised if Ponson gets hit by 36-13 at home Red Sox, but upside on Yankees is very good.

NYY +172 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 60-44-2 +35.24 units

Jair Jurrjens is a gamer. Coming off a tough start with long rest losing against Washington it was just not a good day for the Braves. Yes he logged 2 losses this month at home, other to Phillies giving up rare 3 homers, but you better know Jurrjens has a live arm. Will be get back to his June form? That's a high expectation, but I think he'll hold his own.

Kyle Kendricks coming off a bad loss in Miami on a day when his sinker had no bite. He gave up 3 HR's for the 1st time in his young career and gave up 7 RBI's on 10 hits. Another pitcher showing rust from the long rest? Kyle 5-2 record with 14-6 team record has been money all season.

Jair Jurrjens 6 quality starts out of 9 road games 3.16 ERA & 1.21 WHIP. Pitching O/U 2-7 away, 1-5 as Underdog.
Kyle Kendricks 5 quality starts out of 9 home games 4.69 ERA & 1.33 WHIP. Pitching O/U 13-7 overall, but 72% Over away vs 55% over at home
Both pitchers back on normal schedule look for them to improve in quality.

Philies have been killing the Braves 8-1 this season.
Only 2 out of 9 games were decided by 1 run.
O/U 3-6 @PHL 1-2 @ATL 2-4

Backig the Under with Total at 9.5 as Books come out all over the place. A high total in NL game

ATL/PHL UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)

All I can say is WTF. Steaked with 8.5 run cushion in the 9th and lose this shit.
0-1 -2.10 units

MLB Wednesday

0-1 last selection. That's why you don't go against the Sharps. YTD 63-44-2 +33.10 units

What do I like off the top. Dodgers and Rocks are looking Over, but I looked at that 10.5 Total and figured the odds maker are in sink. Kuroda is average pitcher on the road and Rusch I don't trust today. He can revert to the pitcher that got shelled by Cubs and couldn't hold off the Marlins in relief. But here is the argument for Under as Dodgers saved their pitching because of that shelling they got yesterday. Dodgers pitching level will be much better than shown yesterday and even with the LA offense motoring it's not going to help that Over.

LAD/COL UNDER 10.5 at +103 for 1 unit(W)

Washington at Giants play at the Bay. They won't get much attention, but worth a risk on the Over 8.5 with money going Under. The number is bit high for games at AT&T since Giants have returned from their road trip 7/13 Total has ranged 7.5~8 and all have gone Over. There is a light rain which will slow the flight of fly balls, but still reachable. I don't foresee deep work by both starters and Nationals showing excellent OPS since the start of this road trip. Looking for small ball to exceed the number.

WAS/SFG OVER 8.5 at +111 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.14 units

MLB Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 63-43-2 +34.19 units

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins. Two young arms will go at it with Morton against the import Vandenhurk and I will admit I'm Morton bias having watched him against the Pads. Rick Vandenhurk for the Fish I do not have much opinion except he looked very hittable in the past, but that doesn't mean much today. Fish have the home advantage, prefers hitting righties, plays winning ball against division opponents and Braves are not the same team away from Atlanta.
What I've said is true Marlins should be a very good home dog, but I'm suspecting a change in Braves that almost lead me to pass on this game. Most sharps are following the winning formula with Florida at home I'll go the other way.

ATLANTA -109 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.09 units

MLB Sunday

1-0 last selection. YTD 63-42-2 +35.19 units

Counting down to the last game of the day.
Boston at Anaheim Angels. Knuckler Wakefield against Jon Garland. You know the price on Angels have been falling and that kind of stuff catches my eyes. I normally like to play the favs with dropping price, but I'm going with Boston today. Wakefield has been pitching deep and they stranded 12 base runners yesterday unable to hold the lead. Sox has hit Garland well and inconsistent as Boston maybe they are a tough bunch to sweep even on the road.

BOSTON +107 for 1 unit(L)

Had a bad feeling after taking the lead. Almost took Angels in-Game at +212, but failed to pull the trigger.

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 to start after the All Star break. YTD 62-42-2 +34.19 units

Going to National League game where our focus will be Milwaukee Brewers at San Fransisco Giants, Matt Cain pitching well lately and that has soaked into the wagering crowd. Line has reversed as the consensus majority take the Brewers on the road with their new weapon at hand.
Brew weaker away, 21-26, but not as bad as 17-28 home for G-Men. The thing about these reverse line movement originally start with Home team value play and I think this one is getting off loaded close to game time. It never hit that magical mark of 75%+ public on Milwaukee.

MILWAUKEE -119 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

0-2 last selection. YTD 61-42-2 +33.19 units

This is one of those games where the line opened with even match up, a slight Tigers favor as visitors, but players have leaned on Detroit only to see the line move to Baltimore before returning to Detroit. The pitching match up will see the "Gambler" coming in at 6-6 completing 114.2 innings 11 quality starts out of 19, 6 of them at home and 5 away, the difference being Tigers at home 6-3 and away 3-7. Still Rogers should get good deal of backers as he has been eating innings and Baltimore is on the slide. Garrett Olson 6-4 has only 4 quality starts out of 14, but has no defeat at home 3-0 with O's winning 4-2. He does have the momentum against him with 1 quality start out of last 7 with WHIP climbing to .176 Although Orioles are hitting 24 runs in last 3 games they have also gave 20 runs. Olson to keep dodging bullets is unlikely at best. Tigers to improve in Baltimore.

DETROIT -103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

0-1 last selection. YTD 61-40-2 +36.23 units

Going on the same game as last night. Atlanta at San Diego
Campillo against Wolf in the rubber match and watching these two teams go head to head I just can't help thinking "All these pitchers in all these games are outstanding", but it's not all pitching it's the lack of offense making the pitchers look better. It's a perfect baseball day in San Diego or shall I say Pitching day at PetCo Park. We might even get some shadows in the batter box and behind the home plate Brian Knight O/U 5-14 calling strikes and balls.
Campillo comes in O/U 2-7 and Wolf 4-14. Taking the low Under.

ATL/SDP UNDER 7.5 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

Colorado at New York Mets
Heading into Flushing where Mets are mighty and on a roll. No doubt New York is the hottest team right now and Rockies will need to throw the kitchen sink to give these boys a run for their money. Redman at 2-4 is 50% Rox are 3-6 at 50% on the road and games are going Over 7-2, 3-0 away. Michael Pelfrey is pitching well and has been a winner, but it has not equaled Under as he is getting tons of run support. He's also coming off 3 hit no run game which is about good as it gets and that usually reverses a bit in this spot.

COL/NYM OVER 9 at +113 for 2 units(L)

0-2 -3.04 units

MLB Saturday

0-1 yesterday. YTD 61-39-2 +37.31 units

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres.
Bravos send young Charlie Morton in this spot to work around 6 innings or so with minimum damage and he can do that. On the other side is the old veteran crafty Maddux he's been hit looking at the last 3 games, but at home he has been quality. Coming off at strong home performance against Marlins, although a loss, Greg and the Pads look to take 2 from Braves today. Braves woeful on the road with bats not finding timely hits are 3-7 in last 10 games.

SAN DIEGO -108 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.08 units

MLB Friday

1-0 yesterday going into the weekend. YTD 61-38-2 +38.31 units

St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates. This will feature Kyle Lohse for the red birds pitching a fine season and Zack Duke alternating wins and losses at 50% 9-9 team record. Zack coming off a bad start is likely to bounce back here at home where his quality starts are 6 out of 9 with Bucs edging 5-4. A small edge as that maybe Cards bats have gone quiet and much is expected from Lohse today, but if there's a misleading number it's his road performance to team win ratio.
His quality start is lacking on the road with 3 out of 8, but team has taken 5-3. Such will not be the case today at PNC if Lohse can not carry the load. He does come in with momentum 5-1 June and Cards are tough against division opponents, but let's take the Bucs to show up today.

PITTSBURGH +113 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 yesterday. YTD 60-38-2 +37.31 units

Baltimore O Birds at Rogers Center in Toronto. These two teams may not matter much in what's shaping up to be the race for AL East, but look for a good match up. Today's arms are Jeremy Guthrie looking for a third straight win overall and a second straight defeat of the Blue Jays against Journeyman southpaw John Parrish starting against his former team for the first time. Can't say how Parrish will hold up tonight, but Jays bats sure look live. Jeremy Guthrie pitches quality game, but too many holes on the road for Baltimore to support. Blue Jays are 2008 disappointment, but there are too many talents to slide and fade away. Feeling some boost from Toronto look for Jays to make their stand taking this one in decisive fashion.

TORONTO -111 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Wednesday

1-0 yesterday even with the rain delay. YTD 59-38-2 +36.31 units

Going with my home team Dodgers at the Ravine. Yeah, Braves has L.A.'s number for awhile, but Dodgers have been taking series and Atlanta has been sliding. Will the tide change with Hudson on the mound? I'll say, No, L.A. take this to take the Home Atlanta series and Lowe to get the win.

DODGERS -103 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 58-38-2 +34.98 units

Pittsburgh Pirates don't conjure image of high powering offense, but that what they are this season and defense being crap the Bucs have come up big as the premiere Over team of 2008. Current O/U records 53-30-5 averaging 10.5 runs per game. Getting the ball will be Ian Snell returning from D/L without any minor league tune up he'll be on a close watch. On the flip side Brandon Backe very hard to read, but I'd say he'll improve from his last outing maybe record a quality start or close to it. All in all this game on the surface has the look of bats lighting up the scoreboard, but the Bucs protect their home turf better, pitchers pitch better and Backe is UNDER machine. The selection I'm getting to is fading the obvious Over as the number has climbed from 9.5 to 10 and I don't think it'll reach 10 so taking the risk at 9.5 UNDER.

HOU/PIT UNDER 9.5 at +133 for 1 unit(W)

MLB Monday

1-0 last selection. YTD 57-38-2 +33.69 units

What's happening Players? Hope everyone is coming off a winning weekend.
Today the game is New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies. Pedro, not as threatening, will enter a tough division rivalry against always dangerous Phillies. Mets maybe looking to take this series on the road, but 2 out of 3 was very close. Eaton is also good at home with 4 out of 4 quality starts. So what's not to like the home team today? Since the Atlanta series Phillies offensive production is falling from 8 - 7 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 2, leading to today OPS is down .300 and although Pedro may look hittable the right bat advantage goes to the Mets. Pedro stock is down, but value rates much better than Adam Eaton. Look to sneak this one by the streaky Phillies.

METS +129 for 1 unit(W)

Told ya we sneak this by, lol.
1-0 +1.29 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 56-38-2 +32.44 units

Taking Doc Halladay on the road in Anahiem Big A. Struggling Jays are facing Big John Lackey formidable Ace of the Angels. Lackey has been consistently quality in every start, undefeated in June and he is the Ace in every way, but Doc coming off a 9 inning performance is commanding in the West where as Lackey giving up 0 runs may give a little in this spot.

BLUE JAYS +125 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.25 units

MLB Happy 4th of July

1-0 last selection and Happy July 4th to all, even if your not celebrating U.S. Independence day, enjoying the great American pastime. YTD 55-38-2 +30.44 units

Keeping it short and sweet. We like Minny at home, Indians come into the Dome at the wrong time and Cleveland just not ready to go toe to toe right now. If your feeling adventurous take the -1.5 runline as you will have a very good edge to take this in a blowout.

MIN -125 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection. YTD 54-38-2 +29.04 units

This selection comes after a long winning run at home KCR fumbles in Camden Yards. If you feel the way I do Royals bats are finding the ball again. O's might be formidable at home, but this price seems little too steep. Starters will not factor in outcome as the bats will do the talking today.

KAN +140(W)

1-0 +1.40 units

MLB Wednesday

0-2 last selection. YTD 53-38-2 +27.88 units

Fading Arizona at home playing against the Brewers. I'm not considering much weight on today's starters Seth McClung and Yusmeiro Petit they're pretty much a wash. NL West is full of mediocrity more about teams going cold than hot. That's the theory for today's selection.
Brewers and take the plus money.

BREWERS +116 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.16 units

MLB Saturday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-36-2 +29.88 units

Rockies struggle continue and losses are mounting at 5 straight. Not one of those loss have been less than 1.5 meaning Run Line would of taken it on the chin for 5 straight too. Jimenez got rocked for 15 hits and Rox went on to lose decisively 7-1 at Detroit. Is there anything in their course of demise give this team a small shinning light? Jeff Francis is a shadow of last year's pitcher, 6 quality starts out of 16, did not last 5 innings last start and gave up 2 long balls. Jeff is only averaging 25% wins away so any consideration on bunch of guys from Denver maybe money out the window. Before casting the stone let's look at the Tigers. Detroit 23-17 winning record at home is still minus on money wagered with the price they command. They win against Lefties 14-5, but 29-23 as favorite is still red in the money. OK, I'm looking at value to probability and in general principle it's only a tool that tells me Tigers are not winning enough to cover the juice....Wait, That's a funny statement considering Rockies have bled red across every category I track. Many times in this game reasonable logic is just a self reassurance of what's already a "given" in your mind, Verlander is the biggest money loser in Tigers rotation equal to Jeff with 25% quality starts. Fading the 75% or higher Detroit concensus and look for Rox to steal one in a stunner in Detroit.

COLORADO ROCKIES +167 for 1 unit(L)

Baltimore O's at Washington Nationals
Nats have won 2 in a row and they will hand the ball to John Lannan, 4-8, but pitching quality starts. What a shame it's not showing on his record. It's alright combined with O's Garrett Olson who can use a good outing and he's pretty good keeping the game Under.

BAL/WAS UNDER 8.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Friday

Pushed last selection. YTD 53-35-2 +31.02 units

Angels at Dodgers Freeway series are here. First game I'm taking the Angels with Joe Saunders on the mound taking on Chan Ho Park and the Dodgers at the Ravine. Chan Ho has shown flashes of dazzling pitches I'm not sold on that and Dodgers are not clicking right now. It's the home field disadvantage when road tested Angels give the ball to Saunders and we should take the first game away.

ANGELS -114 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.14 units

MLB Thursday

0-1 last selection. YTD 53-35-1 +31.02 units

All games have started except for this one.
Texas at Houston in battle of Texas. I know the score is supposed to be low or below 9. That's on the high side Wandy's at home and Milwood is pitching good, but keep in mind the shortest left field next to Fenway and low fence to the right, designed for HR robbing catches in mind, not to forget the hill in center field with a pole in play. Definitely made for outfielders to work.
Let's tag this one Over the number it'll be unexpected.

TEX/HOU OVER 9 at +110 for 1 unit(Push)

MLB Wednesday

0-2 yesterday both late inning collapse, but D Backs stuck it to me blowing 4 runs in bottom of 8th. Everybody gets moosed sometime.
YTD 53-34-1 +32.14 units

Like Rox playing in Kansas City. Them Royals are ripping the inter league, but got to consider the two arms on the mound. Aaron Cook is the force behind Rockies today and he is a force to be reckoned with 9-4 and Rox are 11-5 when he goes to work. Cook has been by far the biggest Rockies money maker and 11 quality starts out of 16, 6 out of 9 road. Rox are 6-3.
Royals are hot no doubt and they are feasting on NL teams 11-3 winning 9-1 last 10 games, but Luke Hochevar is the weak link he is the one loss out of last 10 and limited quality starts, but has improved recently with 2 quality starts back to back before going 4 innings. The way I measure KC made some mini run, this one best by far, but they are over achieving at this point and they are still under .500 at home. Rockies may not be any better, but June has been productive taking LA series, Milwaukee series, Giants series, White Sox series and Indians series before blowing Mets series. Now they are going to drop KC series I'm taking Rox to salvage one game.

ROCKIES -112 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.12 units

MLB Tuesday

1-0 last selection. YTD 53-32-1 +34.14 units

Selection #1
When I look at NL East standing and see Phillies at top all I could recall in recent games was the 20 runs scored against poor Cards at St Louis on 6/13. How the tide turns, since than the offensive powerhouse Phillies have gone 1-7. Where the offensive power? I'm not going to ponder that question, but I do know Jamie Moyer has been pitching in mid season form, 5 quality out of 7 road starts 4-1 record with Phillies going 6-1, and he is no stranger to AL West. Oakland will counter with Joe Blanton the moneyline pit, 3-10 and A's are 4-12 when Joe in on the hill, taking the ball. He's got 5 quality start out of 10 home games and win less in June, but that last start in Zona was a rarity. He'll most likely bounce back at home and eat up innings as he always have with 2 N/D out of all starts and 10 games with 2 runs or less 6 games are 1 run. What I don't like with Joe is that he has allowed HR's in 7 consecutive games and just an improvement over his last start may not do the trick.

PHILADELPHIA +103(L)

Selection #2
Playing Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox. Snakes slither under a rock and oh how they have come down to earth. Everyone said they can't stay hot so now there's "I told you" guys all over the place. Back under the radar and stock is looking mighty fat, but "it's Boston at home" you say. They beat them yesterday in the battle of pitchers duel and the Snakes rather do it again with their arm than with their bats. Doug Davis is returning to form and last two starts were pretty good sign. He's had his clunkers on the road, but he's lacked innings under his belt. This will be interesting with Masterson having quality starts and on the money at home, but since he last pitched in Philadelphia 6/18 last day of the road trip Red Sox have dropped 3 out of 4 back in Fenway. Strike out count has been high since coming home, but so are the hits given up and now we come full circle back to Masterson. Red Sox highly expected to stop the skid today, but not if Davis and company can help it.

DIAMONDBACKS +166(L)
With the win within grasp.... WTF
0-2 -2.00 units

MLB Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 52-32-1 +33.14 units

Backing Big Ben on the road against one of the best home team Atlanta Braves. They've been carrying that label for awhile now, 27-12, but look beyond their recent road trip and you'll see that Phillies swept them before their trip with losing streak running through Chicago series for 6 consecutive losses. Jo Jo stopped the skid and the Braves went 4-3 the rest of the way before taking the Seattle series back at home. On this sampling losing streak started at home and ended on the road. What am I getting at? Maybe the home advantage road disadvantage is over blown here with Jo-Jo Reyes back at Turner. He's only 16.7% quality starts at home, although Braves have 4-2 record when he starts and he has thrown 4 quality starts in his last 5 starts, his recorded home win is way back in 5/18. Visiting Brew crew winning 7 out of last 10 has a head of steam with Ben Sheets perfect on the road and team record of 7-2, but again this team is labeled as losers on the road. Let's buck the over announced trend and go will Brewers at Turner.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -114 for 1 unit(W)

SOP *standard operating procedure.
1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Sunday

2-1 last selection. YTD 52-31-1 +34.19 units

Going with a Over looking game that maybe too high to reach. The game is Baltimore at Milwaukee Brewers. I do not doubt the strength of Brewers home game and Garret Olson may not be what you consider a quality pitcher, but I have to think the upside of Olson is greater in this game. Manny Parra is pitching a great game of late and has shined at home. Also combined with O's away O/U 17-22 and Brews 15-21-1 home Unders. Brew crew hitting the weak side .249 at home dropping to .229 against lefties. We should also get a good strike zone with Edward Montague calling strikes and balls. The risk is late inning scoring with both pens being a liability. Even so the ceiling is high today.

BAL/MIL UNDER 9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Getting too fine, but if I had to do it over I'd go Under. The problem today was playing the wrong selection.

0-1 -1.05 units

MLB Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 50-30-1 +33.19 units

Pirates may have squeezed one past the sinking Blue Jays with Cito back on the helm, but don't be sold on Pirates yet. So they are formidable at home 22-15 with pretty good offensive numbers. Paul Maholm definitely better at home has a record of 3-1 and team record of 6-2. You'll also see Bucks have won 4 of his last 5 starts, have I sold you on Pittsburgh yet?
Blue Jays have been laying eggs on the road to the tune of 17-23. These inter league games have yielded 1 win out of last 7, and that win was way back in 6/13. It's also the second goose egg in 4 days away from Roger Center. So what do you think?
Backing Jesse Litsch even with his 2 losses out of 3, all three were team losses, as this game looks due for the Jays? I think they'll score some runs and Bucks will score some runs sending this match up Over the Total of 8 at PNC, that's the play.

TOR/PIT OVER 8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Joe Saunders and the Halos to stick another to Bret Myers and the Phillies. Just rolling with the AL West powerhouse road warriors playing in their element. Not only that betting plus money.

Angels +110 for 1 unit(W)

Pedros looking interesting as a underdog. Colorado at home with Jimenez does not threaten. Taking Mets at Coors.

Mets +103 for 1 unit(L)

Not bad, but I guess I pushed with 3 selections. Besides Mets with Pedro was very un-clutch like play.
2-1 +1.00 unit

MLB Friday

1-0 last selection fading the sliding Cards at home. YTD 49-30-1 +32.19 units

Nailing another yesterday our game is running 4-1 last 5, 8-2 last 10. It's all good and weekend will be upon us to sink your teeth into some base running, fists pumping, knee buckling great game of ours.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim playing the inter league at Philadelphia Phillies. Ervin Santana with a fantastic 8-3 record, but Angels have failed him losing 3 of his N/D games making the team record 8-6 when he takes the hill. He is also showing little cracks with his last outing not getting past the 6th inning. Opposing Adam Eaton has been quality with not much to show for. His 2-4 record is misleading considering his ability to stay consistent and pitch deep. Phillies are 7-7 when he takes the mound and that number tells me he is better than his record, but team is not supporting. Which brings me to taking the Under at this so called "hitter friendly" Citizens Bank park with Eaton being a Under machine, 12-1 Under 6-0 at home. Santana is poised to improve and give a quality performance, but with the cracks showing taking the Angels may not produce the end result. I do like the Total to fall below and Angels don't hit well after a day of rest.

LAA/PHL UNDER 9.5 at -115 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

MLB Thursday

1-0 last selection, Dodgers stopping their skid. YTD 48-30-1 +31.19 units

Late posting alert.
Bring you a inter league action today with KC at St Louis. Off the top, KC rolling through Inter league at 6-2. They are looking to sweep the Cards on this afternoon match up. Zack Greinke is pitching much better, he's 10 quality out of 14 starts, 5 out of 5 quality at home & 5 out 9 on the road. The team has dropped his last 3, Zack taking the loss on 2 of them, but still had the poise of high level pitcher when I saw his last game. Brad Thompson I saw in Houston and don't have a big impression from him except for the fact he came in against the slumping Astros team and recorded N/D. He is a ground ball pitcher, which I like, but getting depth might be a issue.
Yes, it really tough to sweep away in the Majors, but it does happen and Cards are riddled with missing players.

KCR -106 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah baby!
1-0 +1.00 unit