MLB Monday

1-0-1 last selection 114-85-2 +46.62 units

Colorado is storming into the finish line. Padres got pounded by Brewers unable to close the deal in Milwaukee. San Diego's ace Peavy is being held back for the must win game, but Rockies are on fire while Padres are showing cracks. This game is worth a study, what you might ask yourself, is Peavy able to carry Padres against a hot team and in most cases hot team at home is the way to go. But this game with Post season on the line pitching sets the tone as the best of the group will get all the work. In this match up Padres must show their strength which is pitching, using Peavy on 3 days rest is a formula that has failed will have him go on normal 5 days.
Josh Fogg beat Padres in Colorado 9/09 with less than stellar stuff and Padres loss was, in my opinion, a turning point for Padres slide and Rockies surge.

The overall numbers:
Jake Peavy (19-6) 2.36ERA (away 2.16 ERA) left bats hitting .240 right bats hitting .164

September (4-1) 3.20 ERA including one ND in Colorado where Peavy was sharp, but beaten.
Another note is 9/05 game in Arizona, Peavy pitching on 3 days rest was clocked by D-Backs.
He won the other 4 games, but soft games to Dodgers and Giants twice. I don't want to down play Peavy too much except for the Arizona's beating he is almost flawless on the road with 13 quality starts out of 14 games and Padres are 11-3 on those road games. His last 7 games are excellent 6 quality with Pads winning 5-2. His outing doesn't always produce UNDER's as road O/U is 8-5-1, against NL West 8-7-1.

Josh Fogg ( 10-9) 4.79ERA (home 5.66 ERA) left bats hitting .274 right bats hitting .304

September (3-0) 3.25 ERA in 5 starts Rox have won 4-1 and the ND loss to Florida was a tough 1 run loss. All September wins cashed as Underdogs losing the lone -130 money line. He looks great in current form, but keep in mind he is 12 quality starts out of 28 games and only 4 of those are out of 12 home games. He is a OVER starter at home with O/U 8-4.

I think the number to look for is Total 9.5 OVER, but this is not out yet and line up should be considered. So watch the board and expect some movement.
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We have a Total of 9 Over -110 out. Let's see if the price moves Under.
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Yes, the money is moving Under 9 now -105 at Pinny and Even money at Matchbook.
Not concerned with better pricing at this point and fairly certain all the usual suspects will take part in this game.

OVER 9 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
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We have a Total DROP!!!
OVER 8.5 at -105 for 3 units(W)

Game's not over, but selection is a clear Over!
2-0 +4.04 units